Howard wrote:Shareholders are likely to be in for an interesting ride.
I sort of assumed that like any other rollercoaster that was the major point of holding TSLA...
dspp wrote:1. My understanding and my observation in my travels is that what we see in Europe, or for that matter in China, are the flagship 'galleries'. What I think they will be doing are getting rid of the low-end storefronts that are in the US but keeping the corresponding galleries in the US. It sounds to me as if they have found that 80% of the client acquisition is done through network effect, maybe 15% through galleries (and that these are where prospective purchasers go for confirmation if they don't know someone with a Tesla), and that the 5% is not worth the cost. Just my SWAG numbers of course.
2. I think you'll still have the galleries to go to, though I may be wrong, i.e. your touchability will be unchanged in UK/Europe/China. Maybe the Yanks will get less touchability.
3. No, I am cool in this instance with the work-downwards pathway. However I am as alert as you are to the competition coming. Mind you it sounds like 2020 before the VW ID Neo will be available in meaningful volume, and that's the product that looks most competitive vs the T3. Not one to be dismissed lightly.
regards, dspp
1. It's their phrasing rather than your logic which makes me doubt this.
To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only. You can now buy a Tesla in North America via your phone in about 1 minute, and that capability will soon be extended worldwide. We are also making it much easier to try out and return a Tesla, so that a test drive prior to purchase isn’t needed. You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free. With the highest consumer satisfaction score of any car on the road, we are confident you will want to keep your Tesla.
It looks like a full switch to sale or return, also leaking some cars out of new and in to the slightly used and therefor sell able at a further discount pile.
2. Never bought a car, not quite sure how important 'touchability is' I'd be more interested in 'movability' personally, but I may not be typical...
3. I believe the Neo will be sold as the ID3, with 2 smaller cars being sold as the ID 1&2, and bigger cars filling out ID 4-9. Although ID Neo does sound a bit better. It will come with 3 ranges the lower of which is in the same ballpark as the $35k model 3. I think it is close enough to the model 3 to do it damage, particularly if model 3 does turn out to have reliability problems under mass production. As Ody is often to keen to point out existence may disrupt sales before presence. If VW can do this well and without bankrupting the company I thing the ID3 might actually become the car Musk envisioned the model 3 being in terms of EV acceptance.
My problem with the work downwards pathway is that they aren't already 80% the way down it, which I think would have made them far more resilient than they currently are. They had a lead which they could have spent building foundations, making themselves robust, improving their weaknesses knowing that others would in a few years time set out to match their strengths, turning themselves in to the company they now obviously need to be to survive. I think they squandered that lead and it is likely to cost them, and they are now taking the on ramp to the downwards pathway not for long term strategic reasons but because in the short term if they don't they risk not selling enough cars to keep the factory lights on.
