Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Also thought I posted this earlier.

Comparison of electric cars, guess who is at the bottom and who is at the top:

https://twitter.com/cactus_capital/stat ... 2066637827

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Another account of the AUDI etron:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/au ... -surprise/

Regards,

[dspp]

Another account of the AUDI etron:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/au ... -surprise/

Regards,

Interesting ody, thanks. It is worth scrolling down and reading the more informing technical comments underneath. Similarly if you go back to your post from a few days ago with the Munro teardown (https://jalopnik.com/watch-us-dig-into- ... 1833772985) my personal opinion was that the system integration and optimisation on show in the Tesla is between half and one design generations behind Tesla. So the challenger (legacy!) manufacturers are bringing to market vehicles that they already know are not as good in this respect. My opinion, and that of the comments underneath the etron article, are aligned. For sure there are areas where the Tesla are not perfect (unibody) but the main area of competition is the EV-level stuff (plus autonomy as icing), and in that Tesla are ahead. So Tesla will have to fumble a design generation, or fumble operational execution, or fumble finance to fall prey.

The consumer is the main winner here. By the way Jag ipace numbers seem to be not going anywhere very fast ...

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Another account of the AUDI etron:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/au ... -surprise/

Regards,

Interesting ody, thanks. It is worth scrolling down and reading the more informing technical comments underneath. Similarly if you go back to your post from a few days ago with the Munro teardown (https://jalopnik.com/watch-us-dig-into- ... 1833772985) my personal opinion was that the system integration and optimisation on show in the Tesla is between half and one design generations behind Tesla. So the challenger (legacy!) manufacturers are bringing to market vehicles that they already know are not as good in this respect. My opinion, and that of the comments underneath the etron article, are aligned. For sure there are areas where the Tesla are not perfect (unibody) but the main area of competition is the EV-level stuff (plus autonomy as icing), and in that Tesla are ahead. So Tesla will have to fumble a design generation, or fumble operational execution, or fumble finance to fall prey.

The consumer is the main winner here. By the way Jag ipace numbers seem to be not going anywhere very fast ...

regards, dspp

A few things worth bearing in mind from a train with patchy reception.

That range is based on 88% charge as Audi are more interested in customer experience than winning top trumps.

Its built on MLB evo not MEB or J1 which arel ground up electric platforms like the upcoming Taycan and E-tron GT.

It's an SUV not a pointy nosed sedan.

VW have spent quite a lot of time looking at car usage, tange and charging. The E-Tron was built to do a job, signs so far are that it is doing it.

[dspp]

Its built on MLB evo not MEB or J1 which arel ground up electric platforms like the upcoming Taycan and E-tron GT.

..The E-Tron was built to do a job, signs so far are that it is doing it.

Yes it is a placeholder using the legacy MLB dino juice platform to get some more experience in the market, and to stop getting their corporate [expletive deleted] handed to them on a plate. Apart from that it is fine.



dspp

[odysseus2000]

Another account of the AUDI etron:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/au ... -surprise/

Regards,

Interesting ody, thanks. It is worth scrolling down and reading the more informing technical comments underneath. Similarly if you go back to your post from a few days ago with the Munro teardown (https://jalopnik.com/watch-us-dig-into- ... 1833772985) my personal opinion was that the system integration and optimisation on show in the Tesla is between half and one design generations behind Tesla. So the challenger (legacy!) manufacturers are bringing to market vehicles that they already know are not as good in this respect. My opinion, and that of the comments underneath the etron article, are aligned. For sure there are areas where the Tesla are not perfect (unibody) but the main area of competition is the EV-level stuff (plus autonomy as icing), and in that Tesla are ahead. So Tesla will have to fumble a design generation, or fumble operational execution, or fumble finance to fall prey.

The consumer is the main winner here. By the way Jag ipace numbers seem to be not going anywhere very fast ...

regards, dspp

A few things worth bearing in mind from a train with patchy reception.

That range is based on 88% charge as Audi are more interested in customer experience than winning top trumps.

Its built on MLB evo not MEB or J1 which arel ground up electric platforms like the upcoming Taycan and E-tron GT.

It's an SUV not a pointy nosed sedan.

VW have spent quite a lot of time looking at car usage, tange and charging. The E-Tron was built to do a job, signs so far are that it is doing it.

Yes, it is a panic car, built as quickly as possible using scavenged parts from existing range cars and with a primative electrical system.

If I was wanting to hurt the VW fan club I can't think of a better way than making and selling a Frankenstein car that has a performance that puts it at the bottom of the table of EV cars and then coming out with market hype to distract and muddy the waters to try and hide all of this as some sign that VW are doing something more practical than the competitors.

Classic dieselgate thinking!

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

If this new EV bill goes through it will be very positive for Tesla imho:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3449632-n ... email_link

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tatamotors enjoying April:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/1116019251175931914

Anyone know what they are doing right after a long decline? As far as I know they have electric via owned subsidiaries, but none themselves, but happy to be proved wrong.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is another political tail wind for Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425378 ... -win?app=1

Regards,

[Howard]

[
Yes, it is a panic car, built as quickly as possible using scavenged parts from existing range cars and with a primative electrical system.

If I was wanting to hurt the VW fan club I can't think of a better way than making and selling a Frankenstein car that has a performance that puts it at the bottom of the table of EV cars and then coming out with market hype to distract and muddy the waters to try and hide all of this as some sign that VW are doing something more practical than the competitors.

Classic dieselgate thinking!

Regards,

Surely the point is that unlike Tesla, VW don't have a fan club. What they have is the ability to profitably sell massive numbers of cars to a huge market segment of people across the world who just want reliable cars for a sensible price.

What you may call a panic car is likely to be a more reliable EV than a Tesla, sold at a profit by VW and backed by a service network which will keep owners happy. And ironically, VW are making profits selling diesels all the time they are developing EVs which are likely to be modestly priced to satisfy a huge market which Tesla can only dream about.

Unless Tesla ramp up their sales hugely they are doomed to be a bit player with falling sales of their premium models and a Model 3 which can never be produced at a low enough price to move out of a low volume market segment.

Sooner or later VW are likely to end up making the really important breakthrough of making a modest $20,000 EV which satisfies the market for second cars for sensible people who don't want gimmicks like autopilot.

To compete, Tesla are going to need huge injections of capital. That isn't good news for shareholders.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Hi Howard,

VW do have a fan club, all the folk who believe they are buying a reliable state of the art shopping cart or a best of the best Audi.

Not long ago BMW was the poster car for petrol heads, now its Audi & they have just shot themselves in the foot by releasing the Frankenstein etron which sits at the bottom of the performance table.

Meanwhile Tesla's are at the top of the performance table, they have their own battery supply & are reaping cash for every car Fiat sell.

Tesla has become the poster car for the petrol heads.

In China gigantic factory 2 is coming up, after that there will be Gita factory 3 in Europe. Tesla have already reached Volvo levels of production.

In China they lead in shopping car machines which along with the Koreans are aimed at VW's dinner. Under EU legislation VW have to keep their co2 levels low & if not pay tax and/or buy emission credits from Tesla as their own zero emission fleet is far lower than there diesel fleet.

Thinking that because VW have been successful is a certainty that they will remain so is like all the classic disasters. VW are in massive trouble, their fan club still hurt by diesel gate & now they have bottom rate electric cars being roasted in the car reviews.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

VW do have a fan club, all the folk who believe they are buying a reliable state of the art shopping cart or a best of the best Audi.

Not long ago BMW was the poster car for petrol heads

This is where I think your thinking on Tesla's future market is wrong. You are quite right that the current Tesla market is amongst people who would until recently have been petrol heads. They are car and performance enthusiasts, and they are prepared to spend significant cash on that. The problem for Tesla is that's a very limited market. Most people, even those who may watch Top Gear, or whatever it is these days, will end up buying cars precisely because they are practical and reliable. A state of the art shopping cart or reliable way of getting to work at low average speeds is exactly what most people want.

VW, along with others, rightly has a good reputation for producing that at a good price. Tesla doesn't. You've talked many times about Tesla being a mould breaker and big auto being left behind. Tesla will never do that until it can break out of its current market and produce the sort of cars that VW does well, at competitive prices. At present I see no sign of that happening. That doesn't stop Tesla being successful in its market, but it's a niche market, not a mass one.

[odysseus2000]

VW do have a fan club, all the folk who believe they are buying a reliable state of the art shopping cart or a best of the best Audi.

Not long ago BMW was the poster car for petrol heads

This is where I think your thinking on Tesla's future market is wrong. You are quite right that the current Tesla market is amongst people who would until recently have been petrol heads. They are car and performance enthusiasts, and they are prepared to spend significant cash on that. The problem for Tesla is that's a very limited market. Most people, even those who may watch Top Gear, or whatever it is these days, will end up buying cars precisely because they are practical and reliable. A state of the art shopping cart or reliable way of getting to work at low average speeds is exactly what most people want.

VW, along with others, rightly has a good reputation for producing that at a good price. Tesla doesn't. You've talked many times about Tesla being a mould breaker and big auto being left behind. Tesla will never do that until it can break out of its current market and produce the sort of cars that VW does well, at competitive prices. At present I see no sign of that happening. That doesn't stop Tesla being successful in its market, but it's a niche market, not a mass one.

Yes, this is exactly the argument put out by Blackberry, Nokia et al., when the iPhone arrived.

Folk they argued would not want a fancy phone, just something basic, but that thinking got them killed.

Now the mobile market is all about the fastest phones, the best displays etc.

In the developed economies large amounts of the population have enough disposable cash to indulge the human instinct for love of the best.

Imho VW have not realised this & believe in the car buying punters of yesteryear, but that is a declining market.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

In the developed economies large amounts of the population have enough disposable cash to indulge the human instinct for love of the best.

Imho VW have not realised this & believe in the car buying punters of yesteryear, but that is a declining market.

Regards,

You have not heard of Bugatti and Bentley then...not to mention Porsche!

John

[BobbyD]

Surely the point is that unlike Tesla, VW don't have a fan club. What they have is the ability to profitably sell massive numbers of cars to a huge market segment of people across the world who just want reliable cars for a sensible price.

What you may call a panic car is likely to be a more reliable EV than a Tesla, sold at a profit by VW and backed by a service network which will keep owners happy. And ironically, VW are making profits selling diesels all the time they are developing EVs which are likely to be modestly priced to satisfy a huge market which Tesla can only dream about.

I think the point that those with Tesla cool aid pumping through their veins have missed is that the E-Tron is pretty much an anti-Tesla. It's a confidence island for those who want to drive a recognisable premium vehicle which also happens to be electric. It's for the commute to work, the school run, taking to the supermarket on Saturday morning, and driving your family to go and see your mate's family for Sunday lunch. It's a car for travelling through the real world in comfort and non-polluting quiet in.

What the E-Tron isn't is a car for those who want to be at the cutting edge, for those who spend more time on bulletin boards talking about their car than out on the road driving it, who are willing to experience 6 major faults in the first year of ownership, or a 6 month wait to get them addressed. It's not a car whose top speed or 0-60 is going to make the slightest difference to the decision of those who buy it.

Back in the day I could have talked you through the specs of every northbridge available for 586 chips, and patiently explained why buying Intel and not Cyrix was a mug's game. The idea that people just wanted a computer which they could take out of a box ready assembled and which sat on their desk and translated their keystrokes in to a nice letter was somewhat hard to come to terms with. This is what Tesla reminds of. There's an obsession with statistics and technology, and a complete obliviousness to the consumer. Audi have focused on the consumer and built the car that a significant number of them are going to be willing to cough up £70,000 for, whilst raiding the substantial parts bin which has been the key to group success. For the alternator heads there's the E-Tron GT to come.

[BobbyD]

In the developed economies large amounts of the population have enough disposable cash to indulge the human instinct for love of the best.

Imho VW have not realised this & believe in the car buying punters of yesteryear, but that is a declining market.

Regards,

You have not heard of Bugatti and Bentley then...not to mention Porsche!

John

Bugatti is more a sign of how much money VW has than how much money its customers have. Every Veyron lost them $6.24 million! Still, that's not such a problem when the R&D can filter down a company which sells 10 million cars a year.

[odysseus2000]

In the developed economies large amounts of the population have enough disposable cash to indulge the human instinct for love of the best.

Imho VW have not realised this & believe in the car buying punters of yesteryear, but that is a declining market.

Regards,

You have not heard of Bugatti and Bentley then...not to mention Porsche!

John

And how much do Bugatti, Bentley, Porsche cost?

Regards,

[PeterGray]

In the developed economies large amounts of the population have enough disposable cash to indulge the human instinct for love of the best.

In the developing world, where there are far more people, some of them are just about the reaching the point where they can buy any car.

And in the developed world there are loads of people who either live in cities with street parking - and many of those in London have plenty of cash. Many of those don't use a car at all, and the pressure in cities to do without or minimise use is only going to increase. There are also plenty of people like myself, and I know many, who could afford an expensive car, but frankly can think of plenty of better things to do with it, including just not spending it. A reliable car that gets me where I want to go - often shops, or short journeys in an evening - is all I want. Nissan, VW etc can offer me that, at a cost and with a reputation for reliability and ease of service that Tesla is miles away from.

I don't dispute that there is a market for Teslas, of the type you describe. But it's far, far smaller (for Tesla in its current incarnation) that you seem to think. It's absolutely a niche car manufacturer, taken together globally its a biggish niche, but it's definitely nowhere near mass market. Will Tesla ever break out of the niche? I've no idea - I see no sign of it yet, and to break out they need to appeal to a very different audience, those with little interest in an expensive luxury high performance car, but who want a well priced upmarket shopping trolley, as you put it, and with a reputation for reliability and service. VW, Nissan, Honda etc all understand that, and have a reputation in that market.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
I think the point that those with Tesla cool aid pumping through their veins have missed is that the E-Tron is pretty much an anti-Tesla. It's a confidence island for those who want to drive a recognisable premium vehicle which also happens to be electric. It's for the commute to work, the school run, taking to the supermarket on Saturday morning, and driving your family to go and see your mate's family for Sunday lunch. It's a car for travelling through the real world in comfort and non-polluting quiet in.

Boring, bottom of the performance tables, Frankenstein cars never do well.

The argument is like PC v Mac.

PC will do what most folk need, but they are bedevilled by updates, sensitivity to virus & require some knowledge to operate.

Mac are more expensive, updates are easy, mostly done over night & the operating system is a joy to use, well integrated to Apple cloud.

I use both & I loathe the PC although once I used to love them.

The Mac experience is so much better that even a miser like me will pay more for the Mac.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

The argument is like PC v Mac.

PC massively outsells Mac, whose use is restricted to creative professionals who don't pay for their own machines and cult members?

For once I think you have a point.