dspp wrote:This Tesla autopilot article contains much wish fulfillment, maybe even enough for 02000, but nonetheless is interesting in setting the potential scale and making the link to ride hailing valuations.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/425469 ... tive-asset - dspp
Yes, if this is anything like the future then Tesla stock is currently exceptionally cheap.
Therein lies the quandary for most investors will do the sorts of comparisons that Howard and BobbyD have done and dismiss Tesla as insignificant. Moreover, I am reasonably confident that many other investors will take the view that shorting Tesla is free money. These guys might be right, but if not things are again setting up for a beautiful short squeeze.
From my studies of secular disrupters, there is the commonality that almost all the commentary is negative. I saw this on the re-birth of Apple and believed it, took profits and although i made out super well, had I realised what was happening I would have made out like a bandit. I would not like to make that mistake again.
A very similar things happened with Netflix, everyone and his dog told me that one could not stream movies over the net, but many hundreds of % later in equity appreciation, it is clear one can.
Amazon was another where most everyone was convinced that they could not make any money, now Bezos has his own rocket company.
On the other side I recall folk telling me that the UK car industry had to survive and that the upstarts from Japan were not built for the size of UK drivers, but although folk have slowly got bigger, we no longer have a UK car industry and folk swear by the reliability of Japanese marques. What was left of our own industry was sold for £1 and then asset stripped very rapidly and the site of a big production facility near me is now full of newly built houses.
I can remember Kodak dominating all things photographic, now they are a sliver of what they were.
I can remember when Scandinavian phone makers dominated the mobile phone industry, then how Blackberry began to eat them up and then Apple ate the lot of them, spitting out the odd remnant that splutters along.
There are very many other examples of where upstarts created secular change, were derided as rubbish and became dominant.
So I love to hear all the negativity and the certainty that legacy will survive and that Tesla must fail.
Regards,