Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

For those with an interest in the carbon footprint of BEV's: From the well to the wheel https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... wheel.html

A couple of pertinent charts:





Looking at the second chart it should be obvious how big an effect battery production could have on real life lifespan carbon footprint. Technological and manufacturing improvements can increase the BEV gain, inefficient battery manufacture could eradicate it, or even lead to a dirtier car than diesel.

[BobbyD]

Probably should have included this one as well...



- https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... wheel.html

[odysseus2000]

A solar mix would be similar to wind power, storage with solar likely a little better.

The data is also misleading in that as things now are generators have to keep running when there is no consumption so as to be ready for when there is some consumption. If lots of electric cars are charging then the generators would be doing real work, not idling giving great efficiency gains.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla cuts the price of solar panels:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/tesla-c ... stems.html

They deployed 93 MW in 3rd quarter of 2018.

Price cuts will mean savings of $3-4k per installation.

Aim is to become lowest cost seller of solar in US.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

Fascinating graphs, Bobby. Thanks.

Interesting to see confirmation that, while EVs do outperform ICE equivalents at current electricity production balances, the lifetime gains on CO2 are in fact pretty small. Certainly a lot smaller than we might be led to expect by many!

Of course, if you looked at, eg, NO2 emissions ICE would come off a lot worse, though I'm not conversant with the potential other pollutants released round lithium mines!

Clearly the balance will improve as renewable (or even Nuclear) generation increases (and I have to agree with Ody on that), but I suspect that is going to take a lot longer than many expect.

[odysseus2000]

Fascinating graphs, Bobby. Thanks.

Interesting to see confirmation that, while EVs do outperform ICE equivalents at current electricity production balances, the lifetime gains on CO2 are in fact pretty small. Certainly a lot smaller than we might be led to expect by many!

Of course, if you looked at, eg, NO2 emissions ICE would come off a lot worse, though I'm not conversant with the potential other pollutants released round lithium mines!

Clearly the balance will improve as renewable (or even Nuclear) generation increases (and I have to agree with Ody on that), but I suspect that is going to take a lot longer than many expect.

One of the big costs with battery production is drying costs associated with the wet chemistry deposition.

There are indictions that Maxwell have developed a process that is like power coating for putting the chemicals on the films and that this will reduce battery energy production costs and time by eliminating most of the drying. This may be complete non-sense but there is a lot of research going into this and it would be surprising if the process can not be improved.

The interesting thing about renewables is that with solar panels it is possible for many UK house locations to power a battery electric car, yes even in the UK for 10-11 months of the year for much of the average car usage. Anyone doing that would essentially be down at the wind generated electric in one of the charts that BobbyD posted. Over the next few years as second hand electric cars depreciate in price the opportunity to both cut fuel costs and reduce co2 emissions will never have been better and more affordable.

I believe this has implications for energy companies and for the charging companies and in the by and by for the Treasury, but the biggest plus for everyone will be reduced pollution and reduced respiratory troubles for the whole population.

Regards,

[Archtronics]

Tesla cuts the price of solar panels:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/tesla-c ... stems.html

They deployed 93 MW in 3rd quarter of 2018.

Price cuts will mean savings of $3-4k per installation.

Aim is to become lowest cost seller of solar in US.

Regards,

They where deploying circa 245 MW a quarter 3 years a go, so hardly good news.

[Howard]

The interesting thing about renewables is that with solar panels it is possible for many UK house locations to power a battery electric car, yes even in the UK for 10-11 months of the year for much of the average car usage. Anyone doing that would essentially be down at the wind generated electric in one of the charts that BobbyD posted. Over the next few years as second hand electric cars depreciate in price the opportunity to both cut fuel costs and reduce co2 emissions will never have been better and more affordable.

I believe this has implications for energy companies and for the charging companies and in the by and by for the Treasury, but the biggest plus for everyone will be reduced pollution and reduced respiratory troubles for the whole population.

Regards,

Ody

As you may remember Mrs H had a (super!) plug-in hybrid for two years. Looking ahead we would consider an EV especially if it could be powered from solar panels. However, aesthetically they would look awful on our house, mainly because it doesn't have any uninterrupted roof areas. And splitting up the panels into two areas would introduce inverter duplication problems I think.

Approximately what area of south-facing panels would be required to keep an EV charged up? And would the capital outlay be sensible? Say for an annual mileage of substantially less than 10,000 miles a year.

Just an approximation would be interesting - it's not an immediate project as we have ICE cars at the moment. But the economics might be interesting to other readers as well.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

The interesting thing about renewables is that with solar panels it is possible for many UK house locations to power a battery electric car, yes even in the UK for 10-11 months of the year for much of the average car usage. Anyone doing that would essentially be down at the wind generated electric in one of the charts that BobbyD posted. Over the next few years as second hand electric cars depreciate in price the opportunity to both cut fuel costs and reduce co2 emissions will never have been better and more affordable.

I believe this has implications for energy companies and for the charging companies and in the by and by for the Treasury, but the biggest plus for everyone will be reduced pollution and reduced respiratory troubles for the whole population.

Regards,

Ody

As you may remember Mrs H had a (super!) plug-in hybrid for two years. Looking ahead we would consider an EV especially if it could be powered from solar panels. However, aesthetically they would look awful on our house, mainly because it doesn't have any uninterrupted roof areas. And splitting up the panels into two areas would introduce inverter duplication problems I think.

Approximately what area of south-facing panels would be required to keep an EV charged up? And would the capital outlay be sensible? Say for an annual mileage of substantially less than 10,000 miles a year.

Just an approximation would be interesting - it's not an immediate project as we have ICE cars at the moment. But the economics might be interesting to other readers as well.

regards

Howard

Hi Howard,

I would be starting from scratch to do this kind of detailed installation calculation & one would need to know roof orientation etc. Dspp has far more knowledge of practical systems. I believe he said that his 4 kW system could power a Tesla for all his needs for 11 months of the year, but this is from memory & would need his confirmation.

There are several sites that have free to use solar calculators where you can enter latitude, orientation etc & get calculations of expected annual, monthly yields etc.

A neighbour in a 2 year ago green field build put on slate roof & a separate free standing panel bank off the roof I think for better orientation. It fits in well with the house & being against a fence takes little of his garden. Last time I spoke to him he was thinking of pure battery for his next motor after he ends his current BMW hybrid use, but could not find anything suitable.

Regards,

[dspp]

That is correct Ody.

My 3.6kW of solar produces 3000 kWh/year. Most of that (>90%) goes straight to grid because of a timing mismatch between my use and consumption (1000kWh / year). That is for a properly organised town house with 3 adults leading normal active lives*.

So let's assume I had perfect timing match (or a domestic battery storage), leaving ONLY 2000 kWh/yr for the car. A Tesla does about 3 miles per kWh. So that would be enough for 6,000 miles per year.

I could probably get another 2kW on my property without too much more fuss, so that would be 12,000 miles per year.

If you have multiple roofs then go with Solar Edge. One of my roofs is East facing and another West facing. Because of the DCDC modules the string and cell balancing is always good in these circumstances. I chose Solar Edge for my GF's as well because she has one East facing block, and one South facing block. You also get module-level diagnostics which are good for spotting faults. I have had one faulty module in four years and that was just the DCDC block, not the module itself. It was a clip & plug replacement, easy peasy.

regards, dspp

* (most of you dear readers could do this, but haven't - see the DIY etc section).

[BobbyD]

Fascinating graphs, Bobby. Thanks.

Interesting to see confirmation that, while EVs do outperform ICE equivalents at current electricity production balances, the lifetime gains on CO2 are in fact pretty small. Certainly a lot smaller than we might be led to expect by many!

Of course, if you looked at, eg, NO2 emissions ICE would come off a lot worse, though I'm not conversant with the potential other pollutants released round lithium mines!

Clearly the balance will improve as renewable (or even Nuclear) generation increases (and I have to agree with Ody on that), but I suspect that is going to take a lot longer than many expect.

Glad you found them as interesting as I did.

I'm taking this as a worst case scenario for VW cars on the basis that the like for like comparison is based on a non-dedicated-electric platform, but the baseline is a car which ships 730,000 a year on a platform which is produced in the millions, so it may not map perfectly to other manufacturers.

There's also plenty of room to find improvement in emissions. Tech and fabrication improvements are one avenue but a more immediate effect will be seen through more widespread adoption of a green/greener energy mix in production and assembly. VW are targeting the ID3 as the world's first carbon neutral car, something which will be achieved in no small part by the use of green energy in battery cell production which can be planned and implemented now and on an ongoing basis.

It seems to me that the real battle for those concerned about CO2 emissions won't be electric car uptake, but introducing lifetime emissions pricing. Looking at the difference in emissions resulting from running your bev in China rather than Germany, you do wonder exactly what effect building it in China rather than Germany would have if you were drawing your power from the local grid in either location. You could concievably end up with an eco-orientated campaign to improve local air quality driving an acceleration in global CO2 emissions...

It all so strikes me that range wars could severely undermine the ecological gains made by BEV by incentivising manufacturers to equip cars with hundreds of tons worth of battery cells whose production results in massive CO2 emissions, and which are carried 40-80 miles each and every day on the back of a non carbon neutral energy mix whilst never being necessary for the car to achieve the purposes for which it is actually used.

The law of unintended consequence makes compound interest look like an 8 stone weakling in my book...

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
It all so strikes me that range wars could severely undermine the ecological gains made by BEV by incentivising manufacturers to equip cars with hundreds of tons worth of battery cells whose production results in massive CO2 emissions, and which are carried 40-80 miles each and every day on the back of a non carbon neutral energy mix whilst never being necessary for the car to achieve the purposes for which it is actually used

One could make the same argument for a hybrid, replacing the extra battery weight with the engine.

The neighbour who leases a BMW hybrid tells me he feels the petrol engine is a waste of energy for most of his journeys lugging around the petrol engine plus fuel makes no sense to him following his experience. Moreover, his petrol cap has caused numerous problems, either not closing or not opening which has put him off BMW after his several tips back to have this attended to under the lease.

He settled on a Korean battery replacement, but was then told there was a 12 month wait & at last conversation he could find no battery car suitable to his needs. Tesla as I understand it will have no uk model 3 cars before his current lease ends in June & he thought the S or X too upmarket for his needs.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting watching a Tesla navigate uk roads. This was from a month ago & shows great promise, but is still not capable of doing the drive itself:

https://youtu.be/D_6bfbF_4fw

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

One lawyers view of the Musk-SEC deal:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425858 ... ives?app=1

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla model 3 for UK can be ordered now for June delivery:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/01/te ... price-tco/

Starts at £39,850 on the road price.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla releases model 3 software locked to 150 miles.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-ch ... incentive/

Savvy move or useless piece of junk because what everybody wants is range, range and more range?

[dspp]

Tesla releases model 3 software locked to 150 miles.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-ch ... incentive/

Savvy move or useless piece of junk because what everybody wants is range, range and more range?

Savvy move by Tesla. Canadian consumers will buy the Tesla, get the $5k incentive, then dial up Tesla and pay ??? $2k to remotely software unlock the extra range (to 386km). Since the Canadian government pretty openly did this to try and disqualify Tesla then all credit to Tesla for swerving them. I expect similar manoeuvres by Tesla in other markets (such as Germany) where governments try to skew any subsidy scheme for the benefit of of local industry.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Tesla releases model 3 software locked to 150 miles.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-ch ... incentive/

Savvy move or useless piece of junk because what everybody wants is range, range and more range?

Savvy move by Tesla. Canadian consumers will buy the Tesla, get the $5k incentive, then dial up Tesla and pay ??? $2k to remotely software unlock the extra range (to 386km). Since the Canadian government pretty openly did this to try and disqualify Tesla then all credit to Tesla for swerving them. I expect similar manoeuvres by Tesla in other markets (such as Germany) where governments try to skew any subsidy scheme for the benefit of of local industry.

regards, dspp

dspp

I'm finding it hard to believe what you have just written!

How is this behaviour different in principle from fitting cheat devices on diesel engines to get round government legislation?

Mrs H and I have been watching "Line of Duty" and it brilliantly makes the point that once someone lets their standards slip and does something slightly illegal, they are caught by the criminals and inextricably hooked to the crime gang.

Ok this is fiction. But are you seriously suggesting that Tesla should get involved in dubious practices to circumvent Government legislation?

Savvy or illegal? Tesla must be better than that or they are just like any other motor manufacturer.

I'd welcome others comments on this - maybe I've watched too much TV.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

Tesla releases model 3 software locked to 150 miles.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-ch ... incentive/

Savvy move or useless piece of junk because what everybody wants is range, range and more range?

Savvy move by Tesla. Canadian consumers will buy the Tesla, get the $5k incentive, then dial up Tesla and pay ??? $2k to remotely software unlock the extra range (to 386km). Since the Canadian government pretty openly did this to try and disqualify Tesla then all credit to Tesla for swerving them. I expect similar manoeuvres by Tesla in other markets (such as Germany) where governments try to skew any subsidy scheme for the benefit of of local industry.

regards, dspp

dspp

I'm finding it hard to believe what you have just written!

How is this behaviour different in principle from fitting cheat devices on diesel engines to get round government legislation?

Howard

(I can't comment on your choice of TV shows because I don't have one, and don't watch it.)

But turning to the issue let's say you get a crippled Nissan Leaf with a 100-mile range and a 30 kWh battery that fits under the $45k cap. Then I sell you a 30kWh aftermarket battery pack to lob in the boot (trunk) to get you to what you really want, which is 240-mile range vehicle. It is no different. Are you going to ban all aftermarket sales ? What is wrong with an aftermarket sale ? Maybe you want to get a fur seat and pink dice aftersale, it is no different than specifying the trim in initial build, etc.

There are a few issues here, and they pertain to UK, Germany, etc so it is not just a Canada thing:

- the way legislation works is evolving more slowly than the way technology works; (slow legislation vs fast remote software unlocks of one-build products)
- the market carrots & sticks are being placed in the wrong way to get the adoption society needs; (emphasising upfront price rather than through life cost penalises BEV vs dino juice)
- in a globalised world small countries cannot realistically use anticompetitive practices to distort markets for benefit of locals; (only big hegemons might be able to get away with this)

Turning from Canada to the UK, I expect that Tesla will soon launch a UK-specific model 3 (https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-model-3-rhd-uk/) with a 'crippled' range and a sub £40k pricepoint, say £39,999. Then there will be an aftermarket unlock of (say) £2k to get full long range. This way the sticker price will be under the £40k that triggers the £320/year 'luxury' car tax. I bet that in HMRC there is already a cte looking at how to respond to that. And knowing HMRC they will be a dismal failure. Watching civil servants and politicians trying to stop free markets responding to consumer demand is like watching prohibition fail.

regards, dspp

regards, dspp

[Howard]

dspp

I admit to writing with my tongue in cheek. But you haven't answered my question which is: If Tesla are prepared to overtly cheat Canadian Environmental legislation aren't they behaving just like any other big motor manufacturer?

We may not know what other cheating they are doing. For example are their processes as environmentally clean as they claim? Or are they another VW using clever engineering and hoping they won't get found out.

I'm a supporter of EVs and could consider a Tesla next time I change car, but I'm not sure they are as environmentally pure as they claim.

regards

Howard