Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Anonymous,bruncher,niord,gvonge,Shelford, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2212
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 894 times
Been thanked: 1025 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#233919

Postby Howard » July 4th, 2019, 12:48 pm

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:dspp

Can I ask how you derive your forecast average sales price per vehicle? The reason for asking is that there has been a lot of comment about Tesla's alleged discounting and the extra costs of exporting vehicles. The implication is that this will have a significant downward impact on earned prices. Also, the leasing programme will delay income per leased vehicle, and the reduced sales of the higher margin X and S models will have an effect. I don't have any hard evidence to challenge your figures, but am surprised that the drop in average price is relatively small in your forecast.

If your figures prove accurate and are continued longer term, then this is a very positive outcome for the company.

(And, of course, discounts on new vehicles are not just a Tesla phenomenon, virtually every manufacturer offers them!)

regards

Howard


Two ways. One is Q1 revenue / Q1 volume. The other is Q4 sales / Q4 volume. Both ways account for any discounting going on + any logistics pipeline stuffing + any solar & storage, i.e. it just rolls up into one number. Similarly I am doing the same thing for both the per vehicle blended cost, and the per vehicle blended price.

I personally suspect there may be a downwards surprise on the price, but the oddity is that the evidence suggests - but does not conclusively prove - that the 3 margin is better than the S/X margin, in which case a shift towards the 3 (even lower spec 3s) could be an upside surprise.

I watch with interest, armed with numbers !

regards, dspp


Thanks for the explanation dspp.

Like you I'll be interested to read the Q2 report in August.

In the meantime there is an interesting report on the BBC site. Headed: 'Grave concern' as sales of low emission cars fall.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48865702

The decline is in hybrid sales in the UK rather than BEVs. But it does show the importance of Government subsidies in driving sales of lower-emission vehicles. And how Norway has (ironically) used its earnings from Oil and Gas to massively subsidise BEVs.

The report refers to government actions saying: "That focus has paid off - with registrations of battery electric vehicles up over 60% this year compared to the same period in 2018." However, as we know, the actual volume of BEV sales is still very small.

I'm not sure the average UK buyer is yet ready to make financial sacrifices to drive electric?

regards

Howard

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#233921

Postby dspp » July 4th, 2019, 12:57 pm

Howard,

I think it is just becoming very clear to everybody that HEV is a blind alley for cars. The only people pushing HEV are those manufacturers who have invested in them (almost all the legacy manufacturers !) and the London dwellers who are prepared to buy them to bypass London charges even though they never want to plug them in - and increasingly they are just simply switching to Tesla.

My opinion : game over for HEV, the dead man walking of the dino-juice experimentation world.

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#233931

Postby BobbyD » July 4th, 2019, 1:12 pm

Howard wrote:The decline is in hybrid sales in the UK rather than BEVs. But it does show the importance of Government subsidies in driving sales of lower-emission vehicles. And how Norway has (ironically) used its earnings from Oil and Gas to massively subsidise BEVs.

The report refers to government actions saying: "That focus has paid off - with registrations of battery electric vehicles up over 60% this year compared to the same period in 2018." However, as we know, the actual volume of BEV sales is still very small.

I'm not sure the average UK buyer is yet ready to make financial sacrifices to drive electric?

regards

Howard


Seems to be the general trend.

BobbyD wrote:
In May 2019, Plug-In Electric Car Sales In Europe Exceeded 36,000

Sales of BEVs increased 85% year-over-year to 22,800, while PHEVs further decreased 13% to 13,400

This past month, some 36,200 plug-ins were registered, although PHEVs are still dropping. The quickest segment of the market turns out to be all-electric cars, as the sales increase amounted to 85%!

BEVs: 22,800 (up 85% year-over-year)
PHEVs: 13,400 (down 13% year-over-year)
HEVs: 59,600 (up 35% year-over-year)
Total: 95,800 at 7.1% market share


https://insideevs.com/news/356644/may-2 ... ope-36000/

Don't tell Klaus...

Global plug-in electric car sales increased in May by just 12%, which is a relatively low result compared to what we're accustomed to. The biggest factor was the slow down in China, which increased only by 2% (below the global average rate).

In total, sales amounted to roughly 179,000 at 2.3% market share.

See more our sales reports for May 2019 here.

73% of all plug-ins were all-electric cars, which also increased by 22% year-over-year.


https://insideevs.com/news/357198/globa ... -may-2019/


It's probably worth considering one change in the market when looking at these figures. Hybrids used to represent the safe step between the ICE's drivers were familiar with from manufacturers they trusted and BEV's which meant one of those new fangled Tesla gizmos. Now there are electric cars which are just like 'proper' cars. The step up to BEV is now more of a wheelchair friendly ramp, accessible to many who for whatever reason like the idea of electric but for whatever reason didn't want a Tesla.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234006

Postby dspp » July 4th, 2019, 5:56 pm

I've just read a few analyst reports on SA who have done the maths with greater granularity than mine. They are coming in somewhere from +$100m net profit to slightly -ve for the quarter, vs my rough numbers of +$1bn being possible. Since I am somewhat disconcerted with how high my number is I am grateful for their insights. Sometime in August we'll get the real numbers and find out.

In the meantime does anyone have a source for blended average sales price per quarter for each of the models ? Ditto for either GM pr model, or cost per model. If so I'll try and do some more crunching myself at a greater granularity.

regards, dspp

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2212
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 894 times
Been thanked: 1025 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234046

Postby Howard » July 4th, 2019, 10:06 pm

dspp wrote:Howard,

I think it is just becoming very clear to everybody that HEV is a blind alley for cars. The only people pushing HEV are those manufacturers who have invested in them (almost all the legacy manufacturers !) and the London dwellers who are prepared to buy them to bypass London charges even though they never want to plug them in - and increasingly they are just simply switching to Tesla.

My opinion : game over for HEV, the dead man walking of the dino-juice experimentation world.

regards, dspp


I think you are mistaken to say that it is “game over for HEV”.

Am I right in thinking Tesla sold around 1,500 cars in the UK in 2018? So I'm guessing they have sold around half that number in 2019 year to date. This compares with a modest 90,000 cars sold year to date in 2019 by BMW and 92,000 by Mercedes.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

So whilst a few hybrid buyers may have switched to BEVs there isn’t (yet) any evidence for a major switch?

As we have discussed previously, Model 3 sales will be an indicator of how quickly UK car buyers can be persuaded to switch to BEVs. As you drive the UK's motorways, you must see the huge challenge the country faces in changing the average motorist to a BEV. I'm sure there will be a change, but the dominance of EVs has been forecast for the last five years on this site and the previous thread. And Tesla have still to achieve their 2018 forecast, let alone this year's.

If you are right it should be easy for Tesla to sell at least 50,000 cars in the UK this year to make a dent in the German figures, especially after we leave the EU and tariffs apply. We’ll see if this is possible. :)

Regards

Howard

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234061

Postby BobbyD » July 4th, 2019, 11:14 pm

Volkswagen ID 3 2020 review

4.5 Stars

...And, having now driven one, I can tell you that it’ll be interesting for all sorts of reasons: for its all-round compactness, its rear-engined-ness, its clever packaging, its urban maneuverability, its zappy yet quiet performance, its cutting-edge instrumentation technology, and for its uncharacteristically (slightly) bold styling. There is, of course, also the small matter of being able to charge it up at home, run it entirely emissions-free, and do your bit for the ‘road-to-zero’ carbon-cutting agenda.

...Even though this is a fairly tall hatchback, it’s one with a pretty average amount of headroom. For a 4.2-metre car, however, it has remarkable legroom, thanks to a wheelbase that’s nearly 2.8-metres long: 130mm longer than that of a mkVII Golf.

...Answering why VW went for such a ‘fast’ windscreen on such a compact car, our chaperone told me they simply needed a lot of space on the top of the dashboard to accommodate the car’s giant-sized head-up display, which will be used to project augmented reality navigation arrows, hazard alerts and pedestrian detection right onto the underside of the windscreen in top-of-the-range versions.

...Should I buy one?

Well, fine ride tuning aside, there can be little development left to do to make the ID3 ready to impress both EV converts and nervous internal combustion exiles alike; and, perhaps unlike a Tesla or a Nissan Leaf, that’s precisely what a Volkswagen EV will need to be able to do.

The most encouraging sign we gleaned? That this isn’t just a credible new EV, but an interesting small car with plenty else besides zero emission to recommend it, and feels like an authentic VW to boot.



- https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/vo ... 020-review

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 9002
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1336 times
Been thanked: 3719 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234109

Postby redsturgeon » July 5th, 2019, 9:20 am

The ID3 looks nice, not sure about the paint job though.

John

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234154

Postby dspp » July 5th, 2019, 11:50 am

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:Howard,

I think it is just becoming very clear to everybody that HEV is a blind alley for cars. The only people pushing HEV are those manufacturers who have invested in them (almost all the legacy manufacturers !) and the London dwellers who are prepared to buy them to bypass London charges even though they never want to plug them in - and increasingly they are just simply switching to Tesla.

My opinion : game over for HEV, the dead man walking of the dino-juice experimentation world.

regards, dspp


I think you are mistaken to say that it is “game over for HEV”.

Am I right in thinking Tesla sold around 1,500 cars in the UK in 2018? So I'm guessing they have sold around half that number in 2019 year to date. This compares with a modest 90,000 cars sold year to date in 2019 by BMW and 92,000 by Mercedes.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

So whilst a few hybrid buyers may have switched to BEVs there isn’t (yet) any evidence for a major switch?

As we have discussed previously, Model 3 sales will be an indicator of how quickly UK car buyers can be persuaded to switch to BEVs. As you drive the UK's motorways, you must see the huge challenge the country faces in changing the average motorist to a BEV. I'm sure there will be a change, but the dominance of EVs has been forecast for the last five years on this site and the previous thread. And Tesla have still to achieve their 2018 forecast, let alone this year's.

If you are right it should be easy for Tesla to sell at least 50,000 cars in the UK this year to make a dent in the German figures, especially after we leave the EU and tariffs apply. We’ll see if this is possible. :)

Regards

Howard





Howard,

Interestingly I saw a useful little YTD 2019 comparison of Tesla sales in USA with BMW courtesy of GreenTECH Analysis, in response to just such a "Tesla losing market share" jibe, which if replicated in the UK means Tesla could well clean up:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3475651-t ... t-82225712
Anyway here it is:

"Models S and X are losing market share -- meaning that Tesla can't even sell those cars at a big loss to maintain share."

The Model S is due for a refresh, but even their worst selling-car is outselling every car in the [US] large-luxury segment. If Tesla "can't even sell those cars" the the likes of BMW are in a full blown demand crisis.
For example in the US YTD:
Model S: 7,225 (starts at $75,000)
Model X: 9,000 (starts at $81,000)
https://insideevs.com/news/357565/ev-sa ... june-2019/

BMW Luxury Cars:
6 Series: 951 (starts at $70,300)
7 series: 4,675 (starts at $86,450)
8 series: 1,522 (starts at $111,900)
BMW Luxury SUVs:
X6: 3,045 (starts at $63,550)
X7: 8,814 (starts at $73,900)
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/usa/arti ... _US/434338

Of course the real carnage is in the 3-series where the Model 3 outsold the cumulative sales of the 3 series for the first half of 2019 in June alone.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/bm ... s-figures/

You can see that the 3-series and 4-series are both down more than 50% since 2015, the year before Tesla first showed the Model 3.


Then you get things like this,

"[Tesla] outsold long-established German luxury automaker Mercedes-Benz during the July-September period in the U.S"
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/nat ... 598474002/

or this,

"The Tesla Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class and Audi A4 across Europe last month, according to new data from JATO"
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electr ... ass-and-a4

Personally I don't know how this will pan out, but it appears to be pretty disruptive ! I watch with interest, and a bit of skin in the game.

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234184

Postby BobbyD » July 5th, 2019, 1:27 pm

dspp wrote:Then you get things like this,

"[Tesla] outsold long-established German luxury automaker Mercedes-Benz during the July-September period in the U.S"
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/nat ... 598474002/

or this,

"The Tesla Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class and Audi A4 across Europe last month, according to new data from JATO"
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electr ... ass-and-a4

Personally I don't know how this will pan out, but it appears to be pretty disruptive ! I watch with interest, and a bit of skin in the game.

regards, dspp


Appears to be an overstatement of fact.

The Tesla Model 3 full-electric car was Europe's best-selling premium midsize sedan in its first full month of sales, outselling sedans such as the Mercedes-Benz C class from German premium automakers.

Tesla sold 3,630 Model 3 cars in the region in February, according to data from JATO Dynamics market researchers.

Among the Model 3's internal combustion engine rivals, the Mercedes C-class sedan was closest with 3,420 sales. Audi sold 1,710 units of its A4 sedan and BMW sold 1,700 units of the 3 series.

The numbers are for sedan sales only and are extrapolated from JATO data. If body styles such as station wagons are included, the German midsize models outsold the Model 3. The popularity of wagons in Europe mean sedans only account for a quarter of 3-series and A4 sales, and a third of C-class sales, according to JATO data.


- https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... als-europe


The model 3 outsold about a quarter of the A4 range, and about a quarter of the 3 series range.

These cherry picked market data and misrepresented sales figures arguments from the Tesla camp are neither fun nor helpful, and are probably worth double checking before posting. Those figures are for February, the article is dated March. Does it seem at all likely that Tesla outsold the A4 in Europe with 3630 sales?

Here's some clarification from the original source for that article

The #TeslaModel3 was Europe's top-selling premium midsize sedan in February, but it was NOT the top-selling premium midsize car. Its German rivals are ahead thanks to their SW variants #JATOSpecs


Image

- https://twitter.com/JATO_Dynamics

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234191

Postby dspp » July 5th, 2019, 1:42 pm

BD,

mmmmmm ...... I simply directly lifted a quote from the title.

Mind you it is hardly cherry-picking when they state they are comparing saloons with saloons (sedans), and for the purposes of our discussion here the point is that the uptake is startlingly fast. If you were BMW or Mercedes or VAG would you look at those numbers with anything other than grave concern ? Would you go, "it's OK, we've got the estate market safely to ourselves", would you ?

Mind you I fully agree that Tesla need to offer an estate (wagon) version of the 3 (and I don't mean the Y), and a hatchback version of the 3. The way Tesla have not designed that in from the get-go reveals a certain amount of cultural complacency that I think could catch them out.

The ideal BEV for me now (assuming I gave up bangernomics and found the cash, both of which are unlikely) would be a 3 estate, or hatch, and looking at those segment breakdowns I am not unusual in Europe. On the current course therefore I could hope to have a third or fourth hand one in a decade or a tadge more.

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234219

Postby BobbyD » July 5th, 2019, 2:47 pm

dspp wrote:BD,

mmmmmm ...... I simply directly lifted a quote from the title.


That's rather my point.

dspp wrote:Mind you it is hardly cherry-picking when they state they are comparing saloons with saloons (sedans), and for the purposes of our discussion here the point is that the uptake is startlingly fast.


My other point is that neither your quote or your source actually stated that, the suggestion made was that the Tesla model 3 outsold the A4 and the C series, not that the Model 3 outsold A4 and 3 series sedans.

The comparison may or may not be useful, but the claim is misleading.

dspp wrote:If you were BMW or Mercedes or VAG would you look at those numbers with anything other than grave concern ?


As a part owner of VW I would be very concerned if there weren't significant expansion in the BEV space, given VW's massive commitment to a BE powered future, I assume my management team thinks the same, and while I'm grateful to anybody prepared to build that market while VW put the final spit and polish on the 1st gen e-platform cars if it could be a company with no history of profitability, with a product range a whole 3 models deep who have never come close to a million units pa, who have to put one development project on the backburner to bring another to fruition, run by an unreliable confrontationalist with shiny things syndrome who doesn't appear interested in moving out of the geek-zone and engaging customers with no interest in car tech I'd be absolutely delighted.

Now I'm here more out of an interest in the tech and the market development, I'm very much buy, set to divi reinvest, and forget as far as my investments go, but as a VW shareholder I am very happy with the way things are going.

I have no BMW or Merc perspective, but then I have sufficient concerns about them to remain a non-part-owner.

dspp wrote:Mind you I fully agree that Tesla need to offer an estate (wagon) version of the 3 (and I don't mean the Y), and a hatchback version of the 3. The way Tesla have not designed that in from the get-go reveals a certain amount of cultural complacency that I think could catch them out.


It reflects 2 significant Tesla limitations. Tesla are the undisputed national car maker of California. Culturally they aren't even American, let alone international. Tesla are small to start off with, and each branch off they make reduces the number of vehicles in each pool they are producing quite dramatically, while eating up resources which aren't being replenished and could be spent on Musk's latest get out oif jail free moon shot Tesla network.

dspp wrote:The ideal BEV for me now (assuming I gave up bangernomics and found the cash, both of which are unlikely) would be a 3 estate, or hatch, and looking at those segment breakdowns I am not unusual in Europe. On the current course therefore I could hope to have a third or fourth hand one in a decade or a tadge more.


Just wait for the Tesla divis to start rolling in!

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2212
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 894 times
Been thanked: 1025 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234239

Postby Howard » July 5th, 2019, 3:51 pm

I think the Tesla Model 3 has a market share of around 0.2% of the German car market at present.

So they certainly have room for growthl! :D

regards

Howard

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234244

Postby dspp » July 5th, 2019, 4:12 pm

BD,

If you want to pick over semantics from media stuff, then please be my guest, and I'll let you win every time. It really is not my thing ...

Meanwhile back in the real world that is being disrupted let's deal with the facts that matter. My numbers are that Tesla have sold approximately 623,453 pure BEVs to date. The only other company with a comparable number is the Chinese manufacturer BYD and even they do a lot of HEVs as well. In each segment that Tesla enter they seem to become competitive fairly quickly. The individual models appear competitive, with more coming along. They have the supply chain to currently do about 360,000 cars/year from one auto-plant, and look likely to get towards 800k/year within another year or so, maybe even 1m from two plants with China building, with advance planning going on for the third plant (Europe). They appear to have about half the battery manufacturing capacity in the world sewn up, with a cost/kWh that is lower than everybody else and an kWh/mile that is as good as anybody else, and both improving at least as fast as anybody else. They also own a globally-relevant charger network. Oh and they have a vertically-integrated software-stack and the corresponding development team for what appears to be one of the leading attempts to deliver autonomous driving, with about 2.1 billion miles of driving that was probably 90% logged, and approx 24% of which was actually driven with Autopilot(tm) engaged which is a pretty helpful data set.

Meanwhile the competition appear to be doing their best to slow down the pace at which Tesla are building a lead so as to give themselves time to catch the accelerating train. A good example is this 'pan-industry' whitepaper (https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case ... ing-2.html) that is most notable in the number of times it mentions Tesla ( a big fat zero).

Another data example is the Norwegian data for sales which (for example) shows :

pure BEV 57.8%,
gasoline 16.0%
diesel 13.5%
hybrid HEV 12.7%
https://insideevs.com/news/357526/june- ... es-norway/
And then look at the manufacturers & models in that dataset and you can see a very clear #1 position for tesla.

Have a look at https://eu-evs.com/ as well if you want to play around with Norway, Netherlands, Spain. This is not just a California or just a USA thing.

I'm not at all saying that risks are low for Tesla, quite the reverse. But you have to admit as an industry disrupter they are doing a pretty good job.

Anyway, does anyone have data on avge sales price by Tesla model by quarter for the last year or so ? Let's do the data.

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234249

Postby BobbyD » July 5th, 2019, 4:26 pm

dspp wrote:BD,

If you want to pick over semantics from media stuff, then please be my guest, and I'll let you win every time. It really is not my thing ...


Sorry, but the difference between 'The model 3 outsells the Audi A4' and 'the Model 3 outsells one configuration of the Audi A4 which accounts for about 25% of total A4 sales' isn't semantic, it is factual.

The first statement, is false. The second statement is true.

dspp wrote:Meanwhile back in the real world that is being disrupted let's deal with the facts that matter.


Sorry dude, I'm not the one denying the importance of facts, that is, literally, what you have just done.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234253

Postby dspp » July 5th, 2019, 4:46 pm

Cool BD, please don't ask me to defend journalists.

Now does anyone have something useful. Like, say, average price achieved per quarter for the S, X, 3. Then I could get some more granularity in.

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234259

Postby BobbyD » July 5th, 2019, 5:04 pm

dspp wrote:Cool BD, please don't ask me to defend journalists.


I'm not, I'm pointing out that the sources you cited was wrong, and the quotes used at best unhelpful. I'm not sure if you actually read the top gear piece or just harvested a headline which sounded good for Tesla, but even the tone of the report if read in full doesn't sound convinced about the figures it is reporting being released by a third party.

dspp wrote:Have a look at https://eu-evs.com/ as well if you want to play around with Norway, Netherlands, Spain. This is not just a California or just a USA thing.


Who said it was a Californian thing? Tesla are pure bred Californian though.

Which is hardly surprising when you look at the American EV market.

Here are the top 10 states for EV registrations between January and December of 2018:

California - 153,442 (Up from 94,872)
New York - 15,752 (Up from 10,090)
Florida - 13,705 (Up from 6,573)
Washington - 12,650 (Up from 7,068)
Texas - 11,764 (Up from 5,419)
New Jersey - 9,230 (Up from 5,033)
Massachusetts - 8,990 (Up from 4,632)
Illinois - 7,357 (Up from 3,812)
Arizona - 7,086 (Up from 2,976)
Colorado - 7,051 (Up from 4,156)


- https://insideevs.com/news/343555/ev-re ... the-board/

...which is why you can't get your Model 3 estate. If Tesla had come out of Castleford it'd be a whole different story, albeit a much shorter one.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234354

Postby BobbyD » July 6th, 2019, 1:18 am

redsturgeon wrote:The ID3 looks nice, not sure about the paint job though.

John


They are still running the Taycan with exhaust pipes, I think there may be a little decamming before launch!

There's a quite detailed video here. It's only 45 minutes long. I'm 5 minutes in and so far we've covered front seating, rear seating and boot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=US3vccIQn2g German with english subtitles.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234356

Postby BobbyD » July 6th, 2019, 2:54 am

Howard wrote:
A follow up video shows a nightmare problem with their Tesla 3. The virtually new car was backed into a garage wall in April causing a dent in the bumper and boot. However the construction of the car meant that the repair is ridiculously complicated and still hasn't been completed. Cost estimate to date is $10,000 because of the problems with the bonded glass panels and slow supply of spare parts.


Still going... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRu-TGfGadY

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 9002
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1336 times
Been thanked: 3719 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234367

Postby redsturgeon » July 6th, 2019, 9:31 am

BobbyD wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:The ID3 looks nice, not sure about the paint job though.

John


They are still running the Taycan with exhaust pipes, I think there may be a little decamming before launch!

There's a quite detailed video here. It's only 45 minutes long. I'm 5 minutes in and so far we've covered front seating, rear seating and boot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=US3vccIQn2g German with english subtitles.


I just watched the whole thing and I have to say what a refreshing approach from the presenter, maybe it is the German style but he seemed honest and straightforward with little hype either way. He praised what he found good and was not afraid to point out shortcomings. I do not speak German and obviously i am just going by the subtitles but the translation of small attempts at humour were interesting too.

What I like was the ground zero approach that VW are taking here was it 70 billion Euros I heard they were spending! The MEB platform sounds like a great idea too and I like the three battery choices from the same platform. I am tempted to put down a deposit on one after watching that.

The video also goes into some quite detailed technical discussion that others here might be better place to comment on.

John

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#234414

Postby BobbyD » July 6th, 2019, 2:54 pm

redsturgeon wrote:I just watched the whole thing and I have to say what a refreshing approach from the presenter, maybe it is the German style but he seemed honest and straightforward with little hype either way. He praised what he found good and was not afraid to point out shortcomings. I do not speak German and obviously i am just going by the subtitles but the translation of small attempts at humour were interesting too.

...The video also goes into some quite detailed technical discussion that others here might be better place to comment on.


I thought he was really excellent. He managed to go in to far greater depth than anything else I've seen in a similar pre-release video, whilst at the same time relying less on existing technical knowledge and jargon. His deconstruction of power density and charging for example made it easy for those with an understanding to get the point he was making clearly and walked those without through it quickly enough that those with weren't kicking their heels screaming at the screen for him to get on with it. It was also refreshingly completely not about him.

Coincidentally I was looking at 'Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words', an attempt to explain everything from cells (Tiny bags of water you're made of) and microwave ovens (Food-heating radio boxes) to nuclear power stations (Heavy metal power building) and the ISS (Shared Space House) using only drawings and the, "Ten Hundred words in our language that people use most," to see if a relative was old enough. One reminded me of the other. Unfamiliar denizens of this forum whose age is in double digits might find the author's 'What if? Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions' more interesting.

What I like was the ground zero approach that VW are taking here was it 70 billion Euros I heard they were spending! The MEB platform sounds like a great idea too and I like the three battery choices from the same platform.


It depends what you are counting, but between R&D, factory refits, and investment in new supply chains there has been a lot of VW money headed down electric avenue. There was 50 billion worth of battery contracts alone...

I'm beginning to wonder if selling the platform hasn't always been more prominent in VW's development process than was realised. It's been mentioned before, almost in passing, but bearing in mind the difficulty some manufacturers seem to be having managing BEV costs the idea of VW delivering a truck full of MEB chassis to the loading bay of A.N. Other Automobiles Ltd. and rolling them off, ready to have say a Fiesta plonked on top actually seems quite credible. Imagine the scale achievable. Although maybe they'd be better off just plonking another ID3 body on top. I wonder what their attitude to excess CO2 credits would be.

It's also nice to see the carbon neutral production claim is still going. If VW can really turn out a mass market BEV on a really good platform at a good price, with net CO2 production of 0g that is really going to put pressure on the restructuring of BEV subsidies, and create far bigger problems for their competitors.


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests