dspp wrote:Howard wrote:dspp
Can I ask how you derive your forecast average sales price per vehicle? The reason for asking is that there has been a lot of comment about Tesla's alleged discounting and the extra costs of exporting vehicles. The implication is that this will have a significant downward impact on earned prices. Also, the leasing programme will delay income per leased vehicle, and the reduced sales of the higher margin X and S models will have an effect. I don't have any hard evidence to challenge your figures, but am surprised that the drop in average price is relatively small in your forecast.
If your figures prove accurate and are continued longer term, then this is a very positive outcome for the company.
(And, of course, discounts on new vehicles are not just a Tesla phenomenon, virtually every manufacturer offers them!)
regards
Howard
Two ways. One is Q1 revenue / Q1 volume. The other is Q4 sales / Q4 volume. Both ways account for any discounting going on + any logistics pipeline stuffing + any solar & storage, i.e. it just rolls up into one number. Similarly I am doing the same thing for both the per vehicle blended cost, and the per vehicle blended price.
I personally suspect there may be a downwards surprise on the price, but the oddity is that the evidence suggests - but does not conclusively prove - that the 3 margin is better than the S/X margin, in which case a shift towards the 3 (even lower spec 3s) could be an upside surprise.
I watch with interest, armed with numbers !
regards, dspp
Thanks for the explanation dspp.
Like you I'll be interested to read the Q2 report in August.
In the meantime there is an interesting report on the BBC site. Headed: 'Grave concern' as sales of low emission cars fall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48865702
The decline is in hybrid sales in the UK rather than BEVs. But it does show the importance of Government subsidies in driving sales of lower-emission vehicles. And how Norway has (ironically) used its earnings from Oil and Gas to massively subsidise BEVs.
The report refers to government actions saying: "That focus has paid off - with registrations of battery electric vehicles up over 60% this year compared to the same period in 2018." However, as we know, the actual volume of BEV sales is still very small.
I'm not sure the average UK buyer is yet ready to make financial sacrifices to drive electric?
regards
Howard