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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#248457

Postby BobbyD » September 1st, 2019, 1:50 pm

BrummieDave wrote:I'm fairly recently back from three weeks in California, mostly spent in the affluent areas north and south of the Bay area (eg Sonoma to the north, Carmel to the south). I remarked to Mrs BD how very few Teslas we saw, like none I can remember, and how many wealthy professionals are still driving large pick up trucks (lots of Ford 150, 250 and 350s and the equivalents from RAM, Chevrolet, GMC etc.), the flashier the better. I had expected to see lots of electric vehicles, or at least greater numbers than in the UK but they were very very few and far between.


The one thing this does bring to mind is that California may be ahead of many places on the planet in terms of EV adoption, and Tesla may be massively and disproportionately reliant on the California market, but there are well over 40 million Californians and Tesla haven't actually built very many cars. California is also not far off twice the size of the UK, so there is lots more California you can't see at any one time than there is UK you can't see at any one time in which to hide them...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248472

Postby BrummieDave » September 1st, 2019, 2:49 pm

BobbyD wrote:
BrummieDave wrote:I'm fairly recently back from three weeks in California, mostly spent in the affluent areas north and south of the Bay area (eg Sonoma to the north, Carmel to the south). I remarked to Mrs BD how very few Teslas we saw, like none I can remember, and how many wealthy professionals are still driving large pick up trucks (lots of Ford 150, 250 and 350s and the equivalents from RAM, Chevrolet, GMC etc.), the flashier the better. I had expected to see lots of electric vehicles, or at least greater numbers than in the UK but they were very very few and far between.


The one thing this does bring to mind is that California may be ahead of many places on the planet in terms of EV adoption, and Tesla may be massively and disproportionately reliant on the California market, but there are well over 40 million Californians and Tesla haven't actually built very many cars. California is also not far off twice the size of the UK, so there is lots more California you can't see at any one time than there is UK you can't see at any one time in which to hide them...


That could well explain it, and I expect the Tesla drivers are concentrated in certain areas reflecting the demographic of their customer base. I suppose I was actually saying that I thought that was exactly where I visited, wealthy, lefty-leaning, liberal (by US standards) locations (inc Santa Barbara, where I def expected to see them), but it just shows how conservative and insular large swathes of the place still are.

I'll be back there again next year and will see if the uptake has increased.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248473

Postby redsturgeon » September 1st, 2019, 2:51 pm

BrummieDave wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:There seems to be an inherent suspicion about the use of technology for some things in Silicon Valley...perhaps they know more than us?

John


As we were early for the flight home from SFO we dropped off the 101 and drove around Menlo Park and Palo Alto both of which were pretty deserted probably because it was Sunday. I can't say it felt in any way 'special' or even interesting tbh, both of which I'd expected. I'm a sucker for an impressive building, or a neatly clipped campus, but it just looked like lots of offices tbh.

Perhaps the public perception of these places driven by the relatively aggressive marketing of them as part of the wider PR machines the major corps fund, is greater than the reality.


I did a house swap about eight years ago with a friend's brother who lived in Atherton...right next to Menlo Park and Palo Alto, in fact at the time his zip code was the second most expensive in the US! It all looked very suburban and normal though very pleasant but nothing too special. A quick five miles over to the coast at Half Moon Bay was like going back to the 70s...all very odd.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248503

Postby Howard » September 1st, 2019, 5:55 pm

Following the comments on the concentration of Tesla cars in California, as an investor, I’m wondering how to position the Tesla brand in the UK in Marketing terms. Looking at its sales figures and its early customers’ reviews, it could be argued that in its initial three years of selling cars in the UK, Tesla’s position has developed in a similar way to Lancia and Alfa Romeo in their early days.

Both those brands offered fast, innovative, enthusiasts’ cars with some promise. But did they (as Tesla aficionados are claiming for their brand) revolutionise car manufacturing as we know it?

Alfa sold over 200,000 cars worldwide in a good year and before 2000 looked as though it might carve out a profitable niche in its major markets. Earlier Lancia offered technologically advanced engineering until (literally) the bottom dropped out of its offerings.

Both companies were inexorably overtaken by manufacturers of more reliable cars and had to rely on their home markets for volume as they were overtaken by more competent manufacturers. And now their sales are languishing.

Up to the end of July over 1.4 million new cars were sold in the UK this year. Tesla managed to sell around 2,000 cars (source below). That’s a market share of 0.1% which, hopefully, they may improve by the end of 2019. However their August sales may prove to be a little subdued. One has to ask if their 13 expensive showrooms in the UK are paying their way. On average they have only delivered 22 cars a month so far this year. Apart from in Norway, I’d guess that even the most active European Tesla showrooms aren’t doing much more than double that on average.

And if you look at the inventory of new cars offered by Tesla in the UK it is going up fast. Today if you look at the Tesla UK site it offers 47 new Model S cars for sale (mileages under 20) from stock. And similarly they have 50 new Model X cars for sale from stock. This doesn’t include the large volume of low mileage used S and X cars available immediately.

Model 3 cars are now being offered for sale from stock (5 available on Autotrader which haven’t been sold in the last three weeks.) Plus if one looks at car lease sites, there are a number of Model 3 lease offers available from stock. So this suggests that the Model 3 is not production constrained in the UK.

Have Tesla done better in the USA? Total car (incl light pickup trucks) sales in USA up to July were 9.8 million. Tesla have sold under 100,000. That’s a market share of 1 %.

In a few days time we will know the August sales figures. Hopefully Tesla will show an increase in demand? And, of course, there is still time for a few more car carrying ships to reach Zeebrugge before Q3 ends.

regards

Howard

Sources:

Tesla motor club, sales figures for Europe
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ats.61651/



Alfa Romeo sales

http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sa ... lfa-romeo/

UK new car sales up to end July

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/


US sales figures

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics ... g_usa_2019

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248582

Postby odysseus2000 » September 2nd, 2019, 1:17 am

Alfa Romeo, Lancia et al were always "me-too" products.

Light weight, minimal crash protection, minimal corrosion resistance sports cars that had a niche following.

Tesla are by contrast the first of the new normal in automotive, exceptionally strong and with good corrosion resistance.

Comparing the Italian "me too" to Tesla is not sensible.

We are seeing the growing pains of Tesla which happen with all new business.

Everyone now takes Amazon to be the best seller with outstanding customer service.

It wasn't always so, at one time Amazon had a very bad reputation for service and customer experience, but it was put right and in the by and by Tesla will put their buying experience right.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248584

Postby BobbyD » September 2nd, 2019, 1:29 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla are by contrast the first of the new normal in automotive...


So what you are saying is that Tesla are Blackberry and the rest of the world is still Nokia, Motorola and Sony?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248600

Postby odysseus2000 » September 2nd, 2019, 7:57 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla are by contrast the first of the new normal in automotive...


So what you are saying is that Tesla are Blackberry and the rest of the world is still Nokia, Motorola and Sony?


Tesla more like Apple with the iPhone than legacy mobile.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248638

Postby Howard » September 2nd, 2019, 11:04 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Alfa Romeo, Lancia et al were always "me-too" products.

We are seeing the growing pains of Tesla which happen with all new business.

Everyone now takes Amazon to be the best seller with outstanding customer service.

It wasn't always so, at one time Amazon had a very bad reputation for service and customer experience, but it was put right and in the by and by Tesla will put their buying experience right.

Regards,


Amazon's problems occurred mainly because of their fast growth worldwide. A month or two after launch they were selling to 45 countries.

Yes, it is obviously more difficult to grow a car manufacturer. But you are avoiding answering the problem that Tesla are not growing demand fast enough. Their sales are insignificant in most markets except heavily subsidised California and Norway.

My example of Alfa Romeo might just be relevant. They were dominant in a small, high-performance, exotic but competitively priced segment. But in the end were let down by quality and service issues and the inability to ramp up sales. I remember a colleague taking me for a ride in his convertible Alfa in the sunshine along a lakeside in Europe. A super experience but completely irrelevant to 99% of motorists.

If Tesla are only able to deliver around 20 cars a month from each of their UK showrooms several years from launching in this market then their online sales programme doesn't seem to be working. Is this a sustainable performance?

August sales figures will be out soon. Maybe they will show an improvement.

Have you looked at the Tesla UK sales site? It only takes a moment to see how the stock of unsold S and X models is growing. I can remember when there were only one or two used cars available.

I'd be interested in your comments on their UK stock - surely any investor will take the trouble to check this occasionally? I will help by giving the link below. :D

regards

Howard

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/ms

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248653

Postby odysseus2000 » September 2nd, 2019, 11:49 am

The analogy of Tesla with Italian sports cars makes no sense. The latter were always aimed at enthusiasts and were not practical for most motoring needs.

Tesla by contrast are aimed at providing transport practical for anyone.

Sales for a maker are always important, but trying to draw conclusions from UK sales in the middle of political turmoil unseens since the 17th century has its limitations.

Even in normal political times I expect sales to wax and wane in what is currently a low volume operation with all the clump-iness of low statistics. Although most of the posters here are convinced by electric cars that is not a country wide phenomenon. If you talk to people, many have no idea about what Tesla offers and buying or leasing a car is now far from folks interest zone. The large number of business leased cars are still chugging a long but Tesla does not yet have the volume to address this market even if there was a lot of interest and the price of Tesla motors is currently too high to have fleet buyers coming in other than for specialist needs such as frequent trips into central London.

If my expectations are met BEV cars will become the sort after transport for most people and I expect as this happens Tesla will sell more and more cars and the service experience will get so much better that the folk on here who value service and reliability will even begin to wonder if they should try one.

If I am wrong then BEV will never be more than a niche player and all the government money and sticks aimed to make BEV the cars that everyone drives will be wasted. I believe this is a vey unlikely scenario, especially as many nations have now committed to phase out petrol and diesel motors, but we shall see.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248693

Postby BobbyD » September 2nd, 2019, 1:58 pm

Howard wrote:I'd be interested in your comments on their UK stock - surely any investor will take the trouble to check this occasionally? I will help by giving the link below. :D


You'll be lucky!

You could look at this the other way around. What sort of a company lets literally millions of pounds worth of stock which is in high demand sit around in it's warehouse rotting while it gets older and less competitive...? It's not a part of the Steve Jobs film I remember. Are these cars actually local? Clicking on more info demands a £4k deposit with no indication of delivery time. Are they unsold cars sitting on ships?

Here's the Norway inventory: https://www.tesla.com/no_NO/inventory/n ... 11&range=0

51 model 3, 31 model S, 50 Model X.

Germany: https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/inventory/n ... 11&range=0

25 Model 3, 16 Model S, 21 Model X

Netherlands: https://www.tesla.com/nl_NL/inventory/n ... edirect=no

39 Model 3, 50 Model S, 73 Model X

With all that free unlimited supercharging available I'm beginning to wonder if I might set up the World's first Tesla powered domestic electricity supplier.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248726

Postby Howard » September 2nd, 2019, 4:29 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:I'd be interested in your comments on their UK stock - surely any investor will take the trouble to check this occasionally? I will help by giving the link below. :D


You'll be lucky!

You could look at this the other way around. What sort of a company lets literally millions of pounds worth of stock which is in high demand sit around in it's warehouse rotting while it gets older and less competitive...? It's not a part of the Steve Jobs film I remember. Are these cars actually local? Clicking on more info demands a £4k deposit with no indication of delivery time. Are they unsold cars sitting on ships?


Tesla appear to be holding at least £10 million inventory of unsold new S and X models in the UK. Perhaps these are difficult to sell as the Model 3 has cannibalised their attractiveness to new customers.

Out of interest I did a search for a new BMW 7 Series, comparable price to a Tesla Model S or X and I could find less than 10 virtually new cars (presumably ex-demonstrators) in the UK.

To get a new BMW, it has to be a factory order and, as we all know, the volume of BMW sales is huge (sales were over 99,000 cars in the UK up to end July).

BMW seem to know the way to manage sales vs inventory for high-quality cars. No excuses about the UK political situation required. And I'd be surprised if Brexit makes a huge difference to their sales as their customers are prepared to pay for quality.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248727

Postby Howard » September 2nd, 2019, 4:34 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The analogy of Tesla with Italian sports cars makes no sense. The latter were always aimed at enthusiasts and were not practical for most motoring needs.

Tesla by contrast are aimed at providing transport practical for anyone.

Sales for a maker are always important, but trying to draw conclusions from UK sales in the middle of political turmoil unseens since the 17th century has its limitations.


If I am wrong then BEV will never be more than a niche player and all the government money and sticks aimed to make BEV the cars that everyone drives will be wasted. I believe this is a vey unlikely scenario, especially as many nations have now committed to phase out petrol and diesel motors, but we shall see.

Regards,


Ody

I think most of us on this forum agree with you that BEVs will sell in greater and greater volumes. Some of us just don't think that Tesla will succeed in selling a large volume. There is a lot of evidence that they need to up their game to suceed. Or their epitaph may be, in your words " aimed at enthusiasts and not practical for most motoring needs."

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248734

Postby BobbyD » September 2nd, 2019, 4:52 pm

Howard wrote: Or their epitaph may be, in your words " aimed at enthusiasts and not practical for most motoring needs."


Affordability is a practical consideration. Teslas aren't affordable for many, and those who can afford them have an increasing range of cheaper options.

That's ok though you can still make money selling premium cars at a healthy mark up, just ask Audi and Porsche...

As long as you aren't stuck in the middle ground without the volume to bring your costs down or the luxury feel which would make indecent not to pop another healthy wallop on the sticker price.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248839

Postby odysseus2000 » September 3rd, 2019, 8:21 am

One theme I regularly get told is that there is no way a flimsy electric motor can replace a Diesel engine for heavy construction work. I beg to differ:

https://youtu.be/cumZxYjzx6M

Amazingly all the batteries, motors are made in the UK too.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248849

Postby tjh290633 » September 3rd, 2019, 9:29 am

odysseus2000 wrote:One theme I regularly get told is that there is no way a flimsy electric motor can replace a Diesel engine for heavy construction work. I beg to differ:

https://youtu.be/cumZxYjzx6M

Amazingly all the batteries, motors are made in the UK too.

Regards,

As an electric motor has maximum torque at zero rpm, this sounds an unlikely theory. We once had a Coles Crane which was diesel electric. It had two speeds, slow and even slower.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248855

Postby odysseus2000 » September 3rd, 2019, 9:58 am

tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One theme I regularly get told is that there is no way a flimsy electric motor can replace a Diesel engine for heavy construction work. I beg to differ:

https://youtu.be/cumZxYjzx6M

Amazingly all the batteries, motors are made in the UK too.

Regards,

As an electric motor has maximum torque at zero rpm, this sounds an unlikely theory. We once had a Coles Crane which was diesel electric. It had two speeds, slow and even slower.

TJH


The JCB digger in the picture seems to do fine as do Diesel electric locomotives.

As I understand hydraulics, one runs the pump at a suitable rpm and electric motors seem happily able to do this job, based on what is shown in the video. According to the JCB bloke these electric diggers are in production and are ideally suited to working inside building, an example cited being one used in a cellar, whereas the previous Diesel model required two operators, one to dig, one to move a hose to suck out the Diesel fumes.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248937

Postby Howard » September 3rd, 2019, 3:27 pm

This review is interesting. Especially if one has seen some of his very positive previous videos.

Karl, the driver, has driven his Model 3 in the UK for a month. It's a balanced view of some of the Model 3's quirks.

If one was lucky enough to be used to driving premium cars they might be very annoying, but Karl is fairly philosophical.

One comment below the video caught my eye as well.

"I have just taken delivery of my Model 3, I agree with some of your issues but I have concerns with 3 main points.

1) The cruise control does not maintain the current speed, it accelerates up to the current detected speed limit. You then have to manually use the thumb wheel to reduce it. This is dangerous, unlike any other car I have driven. I trust that Tesla will update the default to hold the current speed and then allow it to be adjusted.
2) On rural roads, it is very sensitive to oncoming or parked cars, even if you on the correct trajectory to avoid a collision, and the car rapidly brakes or stops unnecessarily, making a very uncomfortable ride and annoying following vehciles.
3)My final point is that the road/tyre noise is quite high, much more than a similar size Mercedes or Jaguar, both of which I have previously owned. Not what is expected of a premium priced car."


I know I'm biased, but my Alfa Romeo comparison in an earlier post seems pretty apposite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBtSr7suUZA

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248963

Postby redsturgeon » September 3rd, 2019, 4:43 pm

Howard wrote:This review is interesting. Especially if one has seen some of his very positive previous videos.

Karl, the driver, has driven his Model 3 in the UK for a month. It's a balanced view of some of the Model 3's quirks.

If one was lucky enough to be used to driving premium cars they might be very annoying, but Karl is fairly philosophical.

One comment below the video caught my eye as well.

"I have just taken delivery of my Model 3, I agree with some of your issues but I have concerns with 3 main points.

1) The cruise control does not maintain the current speed, it accelerates up to the current detected speed limit. You then have to manually use the thumb wheel to reduce it. This is dangerous, unlike any other car I have driven. I trust that Tesla will update the default to hold the current speed and then allow it to be adjusted.
2) On rural roads, it is very sensitive to oncoming or parked cars, even if you on the correct trajectory to avoid a collision, and the car rapidly brakes or stops unnecessarily, making a very uncomfortable ride and annoying following vehciles.
3)My final point is that the road/tyre noise is quite high, much more than a similar size Mercedes or Jaguar, both of which I have previously owned. Not what is expected of a premium priced car."


I know I'm biased, but my Alfa Romeo comparison in an earlier post seems pretty apposite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBtSr7suUZA

regards

Howard


Point 2 sounds very much like the issue with my Golf only much worse re oncoming traffic that fault would make it very dangerous IMHO. I must admit I am not in favour of these over sensitive "driving aids". I assume they are switchable (off).

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#248983

Postby Howard » September 3rd, 2019, 5:27 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
Howard wrote:This review is interesting. Especially if one has seen some of his very positive previous videos.

Karl, the driver, has driven his Model 3 in the UK for a month. It's a balanced view of some of the Model 3's quirks.

If one was lucky enough to be used to driving premium cars they might be very annoying, but Karl is fairly philosophical.

One comment below the video caught my eye as well.

"I have just taken delivery of my Model 3, I agree with some of your issues but I have concerns with 3 main points.

1) The cruise control does not maintain the current speed, it accelerates up to the current detected speed limit. You then have to manually use the thumb wheel to reduce it. This is dangerous, unlike any other car I have driven. I trust that Tesla will update the default to hold the current speed and then allow it to be adjusted.
2) On rural roads, it is very sensitive to oncoming or parked cars, even if you on the correct trajectory to avoid a collision, and the car rapidly brakes or stops unnecessarily, making a very uncomfortable ride and annoying following vehciles.
3)My final point is that the road/tyre noise is quite high, much more than a similar size Mercedes or Jaguar, both of which I have previously owned. Not what is expected of a premium priced car."


I know I'm biased, but my Alfa Romeo comparison in an earlier post seems pretty apposite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBtSr7suUZA

regards

Howard


Point 2 sounds very much like the issue with my Golf only much worse re oncoming traffic that fault would make it very dangerous IMHO. I must admit I am not in favour of these over sensitive "driving aids". I assume they are switchable (off).

John


You are so old-fashioned! No switches in a Tesla Model 3. :D

You have to swipe. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#249032

Postby odysseus2000 » September 3rd, 2019, 8:47 pm

Interesting bev v ice trends in Holland:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/02/th ... ics-up-75/

Regards


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