Musk endeavours

[Howard]

Final sales figures for the US market in August should be out in the next couple of days. But there is an interesting comment this week from TrueCar a forecasting company.

"BMW stood out this month for sales growth, expected to be up 16.8% on total vehicle sales and 18.1% on retail sales year-over-year. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate strong performance from their SUVs including the all-new X7, which has quickly risen to be the number two best-selling model in the premium Fullsize Utility segment since launching earlier this year.

Tesla’s sales ascent is expected to continue, up 12.5% year-over-year, however growth softens compared to previous months as Model 3 sales ramped up significantly starting in August 2018."

Now you weren't expecting that were you!

We'll see if their figures are right in a day or two.

regards

Howard

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-rele ... ekend.html

[BobbyD]

Final sales figures for the US market in August should be out in the next couple of days. But there is an interesting comment this week from TrueCar a forecasting company.

"BMW stood out this month for sales growth, expected to be up 16.8% on total vehicle sales and 18.1% on retail sales year-over-year. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate strong performance from their SUVs including the all-new X7, which has quickly risen to be the number two best-selling model in the premium Fullsize Utility segment since launching earlier this year.

Tesla’s sales ascent is expected to continue, up 12.5% year-over-year, however growth softens compared to previous months as Model 3 sales ramped up significantly starting in August 2018."

Now you weren't expecting that were you!

We'll see if their figures are right in a day or two.

regards

Howard

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-rele ... ekend.html

So they are up 12.5% compared with an equivalent pre-model 3 ramp last year? Wooo!

I think the other way to put that would be a fall of 25% from the equivalent month last quarter, but my figures, or the prediction, could be wrong.

[Howard]

These companies are real disruptors of the car dealership process, I can buy or lease pretty much any new car I like without ever setting foot in a dealership but I know the dealer is there to sort out any problems if they arise after the sale.

The dealer as we know it is a dead thing walking. That's all you are describing.

How fortunate for Tesla that they have not set out to create a dealer network. Instead they own & control the sales experience from top to bottom, and separate that out from the service experience.

- dspp

It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end,

For the first time since the Great Recession, the average U.S. new car dealer operated at a financial loss in 2018. After adding the income from all dealership departments (i.e., new cars, used cars, service and parts), the typical dealer lost $13,000 last year — compared to a $430,000 profit in 2013. To survive, dealers are now dependent on conditional income or “strings-attached” financial incentives from automakers. This shift in dealership profitability is reshaping an industry that is over a century old. Retailing new vehicles is unprofitable for most dealers, with the average car sold for a $735 loss as of the latest data.

etc https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyalic ... o-dealers/

- dspp

dspp

With respect, there is always a danger in taking too much notice of journalists and pundits making forecasts about the future (they almost always prove to be wrong). Arguably it is better to look at examples of what is really going on.

It is interesting to read today’s trading update for Cambria Automobiles who describe themselves as “One of the fastest growing motor dealer groups in the UK”.

One of the reasons for their success this year is that they have developed sales in the luxury car market that competes with Tesla’s Model S and X. Unlike Tesla they seem to be enjoying some growth in this area.

And they are making profits from aftercare, which is so important if one is selling expensive cars.

“Overall, the Group's aftersales operations delivered a good performance, with revenue increasing by 4.7% (like-for-like up 1.8%), gross profit up 2.6% year on year (like-for-like up 1.1%) and aftersales contribution up 4.9% (like-for-like up 1.9%).”

They seem to be managing the transition away from diesel cars fairly successfully as well.

And whilst not blowing the lights out, their shares have been a better investment than Tesla’s over one and five years!

The stock market is often a better guide to the likely future of a company or an activity than journalists and pundits. So I’m not sure that your confident statement:

“It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end,”

Is factually correct.

Who knows, some of the most successful companies of the future who benefit from the growth in BEVs might be Car Dealers who can provide the front-line service which, at the moment, Tesla can’t offer?

regards

Howard

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cambria-a ... 00041014L/

(I don't have shares in Cambria, but might in the future!)

[BobbyD]

Porsce Taycan Launch Livestream from 2pm: https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2019/pr ... 18445.html

The beginning of a momentous 7 days for BEV.

[BobbyD]

Tesla driver was eating and drinking during publicized Autopilot crash, NTSB reports

- https://electrek.co/2019/09/03/tesla-dr ... sb-report/

[BobbyD]

Porsce Taycan Launch Livestream from 2pm: https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2019/pr ... 18445.html

The beginning of a momentous 7 days for BEV.

The factory is as stunning as the car...

[Howard]

Edit after re-reading my post above!

My comment, shown below, is obviously not correct, as some pundits do agree with you.


The stock market is often a better guide to the likely future of a company or an activity than journalists and pundits. So I’m not sure that your confident statement:

“It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end,”

Is factually correct.

I should have said something like - Is not borne out by the facts in the UK at the moment.

Who knows, some of the most successful companies of the future who benefit from the growth in BEVs might be Car Dealers who can provide the front-line service which, at the moment, Tesla can’t offer?

Apologies

Howard

[BobbyD]

Lamborghini goes hybrid with supercapacitors.

The Siån uses a supercapacitor that is three times more powerful than a battery of the same weight, and three times lighter than a battery producing the same power to feed a 48-volt e-motor, delivering 33bhp. Like other mild hybrid systems, it has been incorporated into the gearbox, but this is the first application where a low-voltage hybrid has a direct connection between the electric motor and wheels. Meaning the e-motor can take the strain during low-speed manoeuvres.

- https://www.topgear.com/car-news/frankf ... capacitors

[BobbyD]

More good BEV news:

London (CNN Business)Volkswagen has sold out the limited edition of its ID.3, the first of a new generation of electric cars that the company is due to unveil at the Frankfurt motor show next week.

The German carmaker said Wednesday it had received 30,000 reservations for the ID.3 1ST since online bookings opened in May.

- https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/cars ... d-edition/

[Howard]

Tesla sales of Model 3 in the USA are down again in August.

It was a drop of 3% compared with July.

And a drop of 39% compared with June!

Model X and S sales are fairly flat.

regards

Howard

Source is https://insideevs.com/news/368729/ev-sa ... gust-2019/

[BobbyD]

Tesla sales of Model 3 in the USA are down again in August.

It was a drop of 3% compared with July.

And a drop of 39% compared with June!

regards

Howard

Are those US figures?

[Howard]

Tesla sales of Model 3 in the USA are down again in August.

It was a drop of 3% compared with July.

And a drop of 39% compared with June!

regards

Howard

Are those US figures?

No! They are for the USA see above!

[BobbyD]

Tesla sales of Model 3 in the USA are down again in August.

It was a drop of 3% compared with July.

And a drop of 39% compared with June!

regards

Howard

Are those US figures?

No! They are for the USA see above!

LOL, had my head in 3 different web pages with ambiguous labelling and lost the ability to differentiate... it's the subtle nuances which get you in this game.

Looking at NL + NO + SP May'19/Aug'19: Model 3: 1241/1887, Model X: 288/184, Model S: 74/101

[Howard]

It will be some time before we know Tesla’s August sales figures worldwide but we can begin to see some trends emerging.

I think it would be accurate to describe their sales drop in the USA as “disappointing”. This indicates that demand in their home market may be dropping. Whilst they may be able to generate a surge in sales in September to end the quarter, it is worth examining two claims by Tesla.

In their Q1 results update published in April, Tesla said “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”.

And, at an investor event on April 22, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a characteristically bold promise: By 2020, the company will have a fleet of 1 million fully autonomous cars as part of a "robotaxi" network.

It’s not sensible to try and forecast the future as we don’t know if demand will increase. But it’s a fair question to ask if they will produce and sell more than 350,000 cars this year? Which is 30% less than their forecast in April.

And one doesn’t have to be a fortune-teller to predict that the robo-taxi forecast might prove to be around a million short by the end of 2020.

In the UK the SMMT are reporting sales of BEVs in August of 3,147 cars, this is a significant increase over July, so. I’d guess that Tesla may have sold 2,000 cars in the month? When we know a more accurate figure, this will give an idea of the actual demand in the UK. Given the depressed sales in the USA, one would imagine that Tesla should be able to satisfy every order in the UK, unless they are not good at balancing production and demand.

By comparison Audi, BMW and VW sold over 25,000 cars in August and total sales of all brands were 92,500. That’s a drop of 1.6% over 2018, so perhaps not as bad as feared, given the political uncertainties? Each of the German brands have sold over 100,000 cars so far this year.

As usual, it’s going to be interesting to see next month’s UK sales figures. I have a feeling that Tesla is reaching peak demand and they may struggle to attract new customers because of their deficiencies in Marketing and Customer Service.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

And, at an investor event on April 22, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a characteristically bold promise: By 2020, the company will have a fleet of 1 million fully autonomous cars as part of a "robotaxi" network.

I wonder what Musk's next justification of Tesla's stock price will be. It was that Tesla were going to revolutionise manufacturing and show the big boys how to mass produce efficiently which turned out to be a spot tougher than he imagined. Then it was the flamboyant and frankly ludicrous claim about robotaxis, tesla network, Teslas being an appreciating asset, loan cars not having an option to buy so Tesla could build it's fleet etc.

[BobbyD]

Tesla owners are complaining that they were locked out of their cars and left 'stranded' after the app stopped working

- https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-o ... ?r=US&IR=T

[Howard]

Update on my post above.

The Guardian has access to more SMMT information than me!

But my estimate of Tesla sales in the UK in August of 2,000 was nearly right, actual sales were 2,082 (Model 3). As the Guardian reports, that makes them the third largest seller in August, which is traditionally a slow month for car sales, I think.

So, was this the sign of future demand, or just catching up with the order backlog? We'll have to wait to September to find out.

Sales of BEVs in the 12 months up to August were just over 17,000 cars representing a market share of just over 1%. Mike Hawes, the SMMT chief executive, described the take-up of electric vehicles as encouraging but said the “figures also show the scale of the challenge ahead” as the UK moves towards zero tailpipe carbon emissions.

regards

Howard

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -in-august

[BobbyD]

Tesla Autopilot design 'led to' crash

The design of Tesla's Autopilot system and "driver inattention" led to a crash in 2018, according to a US National Transportation Safety Board report.

It said Tesla's semi-autonomous driving system "permitted driver disengagement from the driving task", resulting in the crash, on a California motorway.

- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49594260

[BobbyD]

Official beetle electrification kit

VW to start offering electric conversion of classic Beetles, unveils first prototype

- https://electrek.co/2019/09/05/vw-elect ... prototype/

[odysseus2000]

This a a very technical video concerned with car charging of BEV at home, maybe of interest to folk who want a BEV & want to know about what can be used to charge it, how safe etc:

https://youtu.be/jT8IsAd9ea0

Regards,