Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

So Porsche have left brown paper bags on the front seat stuffed with readies for the reviewers.

My take:

Car is over priced for the performance it offers which ain't that great, nor is the range & they do not have the full charger network that they need.

Calling it a turbo when it has no turbo is very silly marketing.

It has been made to be as similar to existing Porsche as possible to keep it with all the baggage of ice engines & not hurt Porsche ice sales.

They had the opportunity to do something new & radical, to make a car for the 21st & have not done so.

On the plus side it is a lot better than the e-tron but that was never going to be difficult.

Regards,

Oh Ody, there you go again changing your mind when the facts change...

So Porsche have left brown paper bags on the front seat stuffed with readies for the reviewers.

So rather than concede that Porsche have built a very, very, good car you are alleging that Matt Prior, Richard Ingram, TopGear.com, Stuart Gallagher, Kyle Fortune, and Andrew English took bribes to write favourable reviews?

Are you sure that is a good idea?

My take:

Let's be honest, that's not your take on the Taycan, it's your rationalisation for refusing to admit that the Taycan is any good which you were never going to be able to bring yourself to do. Were you by any chance run over by a VW as a child?

It has been made to be as similar to existing Porsche as possible to keep it with all the baggage of ice engines & not hurt Porsche ice sales.

They had the opportunity to do something new & radical, to make a car for the 21st & have not done so.

You claim to spend lots of time studying marketing yet still don't understand that Porsche don't build cars, they build Porsches. The greatest compliment you can pay the Taycan is to say that it is a purebred Porsche which happens to run on electricity. Marrying a great BEV with an outstanding automotive heritage is the car's greatest achievement, and why you, if you are genuinely interested in BEV acceptance, should be breaking out the champagne to toast it.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
You claim to spend lots of time studying marketing yet still don't understand that Porsche don't build cars, they build Porsches. The greatest compliment you can pay the Taycan is to say that it is a purebred Porsche which happens to run on electricity. Marrying a great BEV with an outstanding automotive heritage is the car's greatest achievement, and why you, if you are genuinely interested in BEV acceptance, should be breaking out the champagne to toast it.

That is like saying that the first cars should have made to look like horses.

imho this does nothing for BEV, it is just a very expensive toy for wealthy folk who don't like change, but each to their own.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

That is like saying that the first cars should have made to look like horses.

No it isn't. If that's the road down which you wish to run the logical extrapolation would be that the first non-horse drawn carriages should look like horse drawn carriages, and they did.

[odysseus2000]

Tesla may get 100k cars delivered this quarter:

https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladel ... eak-email/

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla may get 100k cars delivered this quarter:

https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladel ... eak-email/

Regards,

Statements of intent don't count Ody, your rules. Well statements of possibility, that's not even a statement of intent.

I take it leaked staff emails are without the purview of the SEC?

[odysseus2000]

BEV are not mentioned in Greta's video with the WWF, but if one wants a reason to buy a BEV and install a solar roof this video is a good motivator:

https://youtu.be/P0B6AxeVNY8

Historically the emergence of a single person who focuses human emotion in to some direction has lead to some remarkable changes. Whether Greta is that kind of a global influence we can not know, but she is polarising opinion & that has to be positive for the world wide sale of green power and BEV which also have the useful feature of being cheaper & producing less toxic emission than fossil fuels.

It would not surprise me if one or more of the uk political parties soon gets on to this stream of conscious & has a manifesto saying they will power all of government from renewable power.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Kind of beginning to think Greta may have triggered something significant here. The attacks on her including this one by Clarkson:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10022396/ ... elp-world/

Often go on about leaving it to scientists to solve, but the issues are now about the political will to change current practice, to have a rapid transition to BEV, renewable energy with storage. This theme has already begun & is imho unstoppable as the decisions over future power are being made on economics & that means renewables, but this trend could be made to happen much more quickly by political action which from my own self interest would be good for my renewable storage, electric car equity exposure.

If Brexit happens a new administration could use climate change as an excuse to boost spending on renewables providing, if mandated that uk based firms had to provide the hardware etc, a big economic boost to counter any potential downsides of the Brexit.

Investment is rarely about obvious opportunities, but the potential of renewables as a powerful secular growth theme looks super attractive to me in the current political climate. If e.g. Hs2 was abandoned in favour of investment in energy storage, there would be good opportunities for uk entrepreneurs to develop this storage & flog it around the world. This opportunity may of course be squandered or given to competing nations as is currently happening, but it dies fit in with the ideas of freeports & manufacturing within these tax shelters etc.

If any of this happens Tesla looks very inexpensive to me.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Starship in 8 minutes:

https://youtu.be/cTPYUox41bU

Regards,

[dspp]

mmmmmm....... some folks still trying to back multiple horses, including hydrogen:

Toyota is preparing to launch the second generation of its Mirai [hydrogen] fuel cell car next year, Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada said on Wednesday.

https://www.teslarati.com/toyota-confir ... 0-release/
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... 020-launch

- dspp

[BobbyD]

mmmmmm....... some folks still trying to back multiple horses, including hydrogen:

Toyota is preparing to launch the second generation of its Mirai [hydrogen] fuel cell car next year, Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada said on Wednesday.

https://www.teslarati.com/toyota-confir ... 0-release/
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... 020-launch

- dspp

There are plenty of such stories around, for instance:

Toyota banks on Olympic halo for the humble bus to keep hydrogen dream alive

...Toyota, which is also developing fuel cell delivery trucks and big rigs, has not disclosed how much money it has poured into the technology but it has been emboldened by support from the Japanese government, which sees hydrogen as a key way to reduce its reliance on oil.

Both envision a “hydrogen society” where homes, trains, ships, and even lunar rovers can be powered by fuel cells that turn the invisible, odorless gas into electricity.

...Local and national government subsidies cover 80% of the cost, bringing them in line with the 23 million yen ($213,000) price tag for a regular diesel bus, a Toei representative said.

But lofty government goals remain unmet. Three years ago, Japan declared that by 2020 it wanted 40,000 fuel cell vehicles on the road and 160 hydrogen fueling stations in operation.

- https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autos ... KKBN1W22VK


Maybe we will end up in a multi-fuel world where Japan runs on hydrogen while most of the world is running BEV's, diversity is good, but either way I can't help thinking that Toyota's heart lying elsewhere makes what should be one of the major scale competitors in BEV's much less competitive in that market than they would otherwise be, leaving others a clear run.

[dspp]

Starship in 8 minutes:

https://youtu.be/cTPYUox41bU

Regards,

For those who are Starship etc fans folks are starting to do sums that make sense, and critique them in ways that make practical engineering sense, see here as an example for refuelling a Starship ( approx 240 t methane and 860 t oxygen, that's the Starship itself, not the booster that is only required on Earth) https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment ... h=4dc5f601

When you compare those sums with the remarks towards the end of the Q&A about Starship launch capabilities that Musk makes (see the full https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOpMrVnjYeY), which are of the order of :

4 launches per ship per day x 100t/launch to LEO x 75% uptime x 365 d/yr = 109,500 t/yr to LEO for just one Starship

Start throwing numbers like that around and Mars & the other planets starts to become both doable and affordable. Go further and get to the outer planets & their moons, or to Venus and it maybe starts to get easier in some ways* provided one puts the 'fuel economy' together at the appropriate scale.

Cool (very).

- dspp

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterr ... atmosphere

[Howard]

VW emissions scandal. Mass law suit opens in Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... in-germany

The case involves about 470,000 owners of diesel-powered cars sold after 1 November 2008 by the Volkswagen Group. The cars affected included vehicles under the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands.

I think this will cost VW a bob or two.

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Q3 figures for Tesla are going to be interesting. Analysts are wondering if this quarter is going to show a decline in revenue for Tesla.

“Analysts at Credit Suisse and RBC Capital Markets are among those predicting Tesla will post lower revenue for the third quarter than a year ago. If there is indeed a decline, it will be a first for the company since 2012 -- the year the Model S started production.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ery-record

Norway has seen a significant decline in Tesla sales. In Q1 7040 cars were sold, in Q2 5600 and in Q3 less than 4100. Obviously the revenue declined faster as Model 3 sales substituted for more expensive S and X models.

Analysts are suggesting that US sales will be lower than Q2 but sales in the UK and other rhd markets will compensate for this. The Netherlands is also showing increased sales volumes thanks to generous government subsidies.

Anything below 100,000 sales for Q3 will be seen as disappointing. And later it will be interesting to see profitability and cash flow indications.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

VW emissions scandal. Mass law suit opens in Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... in-germany

The case involves about 470,000 owners of diesel-powered cars sold after 1 November 2008 by the Volkswagen Group. The cars affected included vehicles under the Volkswagen, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands.

I think this will cost VW a bob or two.

regards

Howard

Don't worry if this car malarky falls through VW have a plan B. I found out what their biggest selling product was today, and was slightly surprised!

Part number 199 398 500 A is unlike anything else Volkswagen makes.

Last year, 6.81 million examples of it rolled off the production line at the firm’s Wolfsburg factory, more than any other part. Yet you won’t find it on any Volkswagen car – and you definitely won’t find it being used by any other VW Group brand. That’s because, as you may have guessed, VW part 199 398 500 A is a sausage.

- https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/feat ... ction-line

And 40 percent of those sausages — 2.5 million in 2018 — are consumed at German Volkswagen plants alone. At the Wolfsburg factory, the sausages — along with a Volkswagen currywurst sauce — are served for breakfast, lunch and dinner at its more than a dozen restaurants and canteens. But since the company’s internal butchery started to produce the sausage in 1973 using a secret recipe that incorporates pork belly and cheek, bacon and curry spices, the Volkswagen currywurst has become so popular that the vast majority is now sold via a major supermarket chain and consumed by households across the country. A package of five sausages and a bottle of Volkswagen spiced ketchup costs around $10.

- https://www.ozy.com/acumen/volkswagens- ... sage/96952

Turns out VW do make bangers after all.

[ReformedCharacter]

Courtesy of the DT (Premium)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... just-days/

Tesla's new driverless parking feature is causing havoc in US car parks just days after it was launched. "Smart Summon", which lets owners call their cars from the other side of a car park to prevent them having to walk, has been involved in at least one minor accident with other cars experiencing near misses.

A video posted online by one owner shows his Model 3 car pulling forwards out of a parking space and hitting another driver who was reversing from a space on the opposite side.

In another case, a Tesla moving from one part of the car park to another pulled out into a thoroughfare and was almost struck by an SUV which was forced to brake sharply.

A third owner posted an image of his car up on a kerb by a tree in a car park, adding: "I think enhanced summon may have some bugs still, but so excited to have this remote control car!"

Another owner posted a video of his car struggling to navigate around busy supermarket traffic, causing other drivers to wait, before driving past him altogether.

A few bugs to iron out by the sounds of it

RC

[odysseus2000]

Very divergent views of Tesla summon, the Telegraph previous post, and this:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/30/ea ... 10-videos/

Car parks at busy times are always fraught with dangers so it will be interesting to see if the summon is any better.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Fully charged get taycan on a scandi BEV odyssey, and try out the ionity charging network.. https://youtu.be/yIsMlMU8MjI

[odysseus2000]

Tesla apparently adding a computer vision company to its portfolio, staff already working with Tesla if report true:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3503063-t ... email_link

Kind of interesting how Tesla are consolidating and bringing as much as possible inside the business. If it works it will give them a lot of IP that will be valuable.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla apparently adding a computer vision company to its portfolio, staff already working with Tesla if report true:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3503063-t ... email_link

Kind of interesting how Tesla are consolidating and bringing as much as possible inside the business. If it works it will give them a lot of IP that will be valuable.

Regards,

I thought Tesla were already world leaders in computer vision and were going to have autonomous taxis on the streets next year?

The interesting acquisition I saw a couple of weeks ago was as infrared camera company, wasn't Tesla, don't have the link to hand.

[Howard]

Insideevs has just reported on Tesla's sales in the USA. Their summary is:

"Comparing September 2019 to June 2019, Model 3 sales in the U.S. are down, Model S sales are down and Model X sales are down.

Again though, something big is happening overseas and we'll see exactly what that is when Tesla releases its Q3 sales report."

https://insideevs.com/news/373157/tesla ... september/

So it will be interesting to see what the "world" sales figures are and whether the total for the quarter is more than 100,000. But more importantly, will margins suffer? As the company's sales growth slows down, cash flow is likely to suffer.

The key question is, if Tesla can't sell the output of the Fremont plant, how will they sell the cars made in their Chinese plant?

In their Q1 results update published in April, Tesla said “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”.

I'm guessing that they are likely to miss this production forecast by up to 30% as there just doesn't seem to be enough of an increase in demand for their cars at the moment.

regards

Howard