Musk endeavours

[TUK020]

I think this is the doc I referred to above:

http://fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/

No time to read in detail - supposed to be working, but this snippet pulled off the shorter version:

"There could be as many
as 9 million electric vehicles
by 2030. Without smart
charging this could result
in an additional 8 GW of
demand at peak times."

I suspect we will get to 9,000,000 before 2030, but the admission from National Grid that this is no biggy.

From 9m to 31m, how? Well, we do need to start looking now!

Meatyfool..

Meatyfool
Apologies that I was not very clear. THe point I am making is not about generator capacity, or National Grid capacity - it is about local distribution capacity - what the folks in the industry confusingly call the Low Voltage Network (i.e 3 phase 240V).
The "no biggy" is about power stations and pumping the juice around the country at 400kV. The issues I am talking about are local substations, and wiring down the streets to all the houses

[dspp]

what the folks in the industry confusingly call the Low Voltage Network (i.e 3 phase 240V)

It is not at all confusingly named. It is correctly named.

At the lowest voltage level the [UK] distribution network is actually three phase 415V (nominal) phase-to-phase, or single phase 220/240V phase-to-neutral. Most houses are connected single phase. There are also odd bits of the grid wired up in split phase 440/480V, again delivered to houses as single phase 220/240V, or to farms as two single phase supplies (and to some urban locations).

The UK suffers both from being one of the earlier countries to industrialise, and also from having a relatively high discount rate used when assessing long term infrastructure projects. This discount rate issue is why the UK tends to scrimp and be short-termist in putting in various bits of the grid, versus (say) most continental European grids that have better local distribution infrastructure. The first-mover disadvantage is most obvious in those urban locations where (for example) old twin-wire DC networks were subsequently converted to split phase AC distribution networks, subsequently causing major issues for any youngster electricians and many local businesses.

Quite a lot of the manoeuvering going on in the UK electricity industry is so as to be as far away as possible from the inevitable high costs of the a) replacement and b) capacity upgrade to the distribution network.

regards, dspp

[Meatyfool]

Meatyfool
Apologies that I was not very clear. THe point I am making is not about generator capacity, or National Grid capacity - it is about local distribution capacity - what the folks in the industry confusingly call the Low Voltage Network (i.e 3 phase 240V).
The "no biggy" is about power stations and pumping the juice around the country at 400kV. The issues I am talking about are local substations, and wiring down the streets to all the houses

And the other document I referred to in my original post is the one that covers that! now found a usable link

https://innovation.ukpowernetworks.co.u ... ondon-(LCL)/Project-Documents/LCL%20Learning%20Report%20-%20B2%20-%20Impact%20of%20Electric%20Vehicles%20and%20Heat%20Pump%20loads%20on%20network%20demand%20profiles.pdf

I'm not saying that there isn't an issue, but the study carried out indicated that the costs to harden the local distribution grid may not be as large as you fear.

I'm not complacent however, there may be parts of the country worse off than Merton that will require deeper investment.

Meatyfool..

[tjh290633]

Another point of note:

I think it was on Robbie Lewellyn's Fully Charged channel that he visited an oil refinery and he was told that the refinery consumed as much electric as Coventry!

If mass EV adoption removed one refinery, that is a lot of existing power consumption for ev charging to replace before we talk of additional power.

Yes, the electricity requirement will rise before a refinery were to shut down (unlikely) or significantly reduce output (most likely).

Yes, petrol is only one product to come out of a barrel of crude, so refining will still have to happen. How oil co's handle providing all those other products and having a rapidly diminishing demand for petrol is an issue. But not an electricity generation one.

Meatyfool..

I suspect that the refinery generates it's own power from gas that would otherwise be flared, and also may export surplus power to the grid. Don't assume that closing a refinery would improve matters.

TJH

[Meatyfool]

I suspect that the refinery generates it's own power from gas that would otherwise be flared, and also may export surplus power to the grid. Don't assume that closing a refinery would improve matters.

TJH

Thanks for that. Just revisited the fully charged video that I referred to, and it clearly states that oil refineries have a direct feed to the nearest power station and based on their location, these are all coal fired.

As this site encourages, DYOR.

Will see what I can dig up.

Meatyfool..

[Meatyfool]

I suspect that the refinery generates it's own power from gas that would otherwise be flared, and also may export surplus power to the grid. Don't assume that closing a refinery would improve matters.

TJH

Quick scan of the 'net yields:

https://www.quora.com/Why-dont-refineri ... am-turbine
https://www.clarke-energy.com/associated/
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ef ... ode=enfuem
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1917302866

Based on such cursory research, it would seem that electricity generation from waste gas can happen, but that the gas makeup can be too volatile (parden then pun) for usage. I'm not qualified to make sense of the numbers referred to above, so I can't even begin to try to figure out what %age of electricity is self generated.

From the Volts for Oil video on Fully Charged, big oil stopped providing data about electricity consumption of refineries in 2005. If they were *mostly* self sufficient wrt electricity usage, wouldn't they be singing from the rooftops?

Meatyfool..

[dspp]

Oil refineries etc keep adjusting their fuel mix across all sorts of different timescales, including as they divest the powergen plant and sign whatever supply agreements, and as loads go up and down. And each refinery is different. So there is no one answer.

Coming at it a different way The UK is now at about 29% penetration of renewables in electrical power. This accounts for all users including within private wire networks such as (sometimes) refineries are.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gy-system/
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... renewables

The snippet below is dated, the actual stats are 29% rewables now per the other link I have given:

The UK has pledged to phase out all coal-fired power by 2025 and has already revealed one of the biggest reductions in coal use across the EU, behind Denmark. The share of coal in the electricity generation mix fell by 22 percentage points from 28pc in 2010 to just 7pc last year.

In its place the UK is increasingly relying on renewable energy projects such as wind and solar farms. The UK increased its share of wind, solar and biomass by 20 percentage points from 8pc in 2010 to 28pc last year, narrowly behind Denmark’s progress.

...... Britain is close to its 2020 target to generate 30pc of its electricity from renewables but it is not yet halfway towards the target of 12pc in heat and 10pc in transport.

In order to get the overall energy mix to 27% renewables (i.e. electricity + transport + heat) by 2030 which was the target (it has just been adjusted upwards, but I cannot find the link) the renewables mix in electricity will continue to increase AND there will be increasing penetration of electricity into transport use.

Longer term Tesla are certainly going with the trend here, but one should disentangle that from the actual probability of success of Tesla as a company which I think is a much shorter term issue.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Musk has tweeted out, 7000 cars in 7 days:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1013519243030253570

Not sure if this is all Model 3, but it undermines a lot of the short position.

Given all the pessimisum & disbelief that they could do volume, this spurt to 7,000 is a huge emotional milestone in undermining the short thesis.

Anyone who doesn't understand that is likely making poor investment & trading decisions.

Tesla down 2.5%...

[TUK020]

The research has already been done*. The UK power generators can handle millions of EVs. As to the grid, UKPN did a study in Merton regarding this and it turned out the grid hardening required was nowhere as bad as you make out.

google "ukpn "merton" electric car" top hit from ukpn (sorry don't know how to link to a pdf!)

Meatyfool
Tried, and all I could find was an announcement in Jan 2018 of UKPN getting funding from Ofgem to conduct an innovation study:
https://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/inter ... jects.html

"UK Power Networks is part of a consortium that has won £11m government funding for four electric vehicle demonstration projects as part of a series of Vehicle to Grid (V2G) innovation bids."

I couldn't find anything to indicate that the study has been completed, and it is all not a problem.....
Much appreciated if you could point me in the right direction
tuk020

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Tesla down 2.5%...

Yes, not as strong as I would have liked but did gap up allowing longs a way out if they so desired then weaker which gave me an opportunity to add to my holding.

Regards

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Tesla down 2.5%...

Yes, not as strong as I would have liked but did gap up allowing longs a way out if they so desired then weaker which gave me an opportunity to add to my holding.

Regards

Not as strong? What happened to the emotional exuberance which drives the market?

I was under the impression you had sold out (June 22nd).

Still increasing exposure is an interesting move after revealing the gem which sets you apart from those who make bad investment decisions and then immediately seeing the market move in the opposite direction to that you were expecting.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Not as strong? What happened to the emotional exuberance which drives the market?

I was under the impression you had sold out (June 22nd).

Still increasing exposure is an interesting move after revealing the gem which sets you apart from those who make bad investment decisions and then immediately seeing the market move in the opposite direction to that you were expecting.

Yes, I sold out, then began to rebuild into the weakness & added more yesterday.

I am probably more active than most folk here.

I am always looking to take profits & buy weakness in equities I like.

There is clear event risk here with Trump's current focus on trade & potential new tariffs that have produced sell offs including in China. In my view it comes down to the markets emotional take: Is Trump set on a trade war or is this all negotiation that will before long lead to some kind of resolution?

Many seem to believe this is just the beginning & things will get a lot worse so they are short, if not the markets can rally based on these shorts having to cover. Tesla is very interesting in this context as the recent production suggests they will need no more funding, this was one of the bears strongest arguments, but there is still a substantial short position that can fuel a rally. It comes down to a battle between those emotionally wed to the belief that Tesla must fail & those who believe it will prosper.

I might ride out any further Tesla weakness or get out & wait. The market is currently thin due to the 4th July vacation which brings additional risk & opportunity & I have relatively large cash positions just in case I am wrong & the market & Tesla sells off.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Bill to extend US EV credits:

http://pluginsites.org/7500-ev-tax-credit-limit/

No idea if this gets voted on or passes, but would be good for EV sales if it happens.

Hat tip to Smartertrafer on twitter for the link.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla is very interesting in this context as the recent production suggests they will need no more funding, this was one of the bears strongest arguments, but there is still a substantial short position that can fuel a rally. It comes down to a battle between those emotionally wed to the belief that Tesla must fail & those who believe it will prosper.

Purely on a point of cognitive balance its probably worth pointing out that Tesla appears to have as many Musk fanboys who have an emotional belief that Tesla is predestined to succeed, and in a big way, as they do those emotionally wed to the belief that Tesla must fail. Neither is a solid foundation for a sound investment decision.

[odysseus2000]

Purely on a point of cognitive balance its probably worth pointing out that Tesla appears to have as many Musk fanboys who have an emotional belief that Tesla is predestined to succeed, and in a big way, as they do those emotionally wed to the belief that Tesla must fail. Neither is a solid foundation for a sound investment decision.

Yes, but the stock market is a vehicle to make money, one can buy and sell within seconds, one is not constrained to hold any share for any length of time. The media and many books will argue differently, that it is all about the long term and one can certainly operate successfully on long term investments, but you have to be able to handle down periods and the loss of dividend income etc that comes with bear markets.

If you want to make money for yourself rather than to pass onto others then imho one has to focus on short term trades.

Products like options and spread bets are specifically set up to enable short term trading.

Many folk argue that day trading is the most difficult of all stock market activities. I would argue that a trained day trader is the most likely of all stock market players to prosper in equity markets, mainly as the downside is more controlled.

Holding things over days, weeks which is what I tend to do, is far more risky than day trading as one then has overnight and worse weekend risk.

The tactics for short term trading are fundamentally different to those for investors who own shares over long periods. For short term trading emotion is what drives price, fundamentals matter far less.

Many shorts have done well with Tesla, selling into emotion and covering on moves. Its the shorts who have had a thesis who have been hurt.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Purely on a point of cognitive balance its probably worth pointing out that Tesla appears to have as many Musk fanboys who have an emotional belief that Tesla is predestined to succeed, and in a big way, as they do those emotionally wed to the belief that Tesla must fail. Neither is a solid foundation for a sound investment decision.

Yes, but the stock market is a vehicle to make money, one can buy and sell within seconds, one is not constrained to hold any share for any length of time. The media and many books will argue differently, that it is all about the long term and one can certainly operate successfully on long term investments, but you have to be able to handle down periods and the loss of dividend income etc that comes with bear markets.

If you want to make money for yourself rather than to pass onto others then imho one has to focus on short term trades.

Products like options and spread bets are specifically set up to enable short term trading.

Many folk argue that day trading is the most difficult of all stock market activities. I would argue that a trained day trader is the most likely of all stock market players to prosper in equity markets, mainly as the downside is more controlled.

Holding things over days, weeks which is what I tend to do, is far more risky than day trading as one then has overnight and worse weekend risk.

The tactics for short term trading are fundamentally different to those for investors who own shares over long periods. For short term trading emotion is what drives price, fundamentals matter far less.

Many shorts have done well with Tesla, selling into emotion and covering on moves. Its the shorts who have had a thesis who have been hurt.

Regards,

It's probably not going to surprise you to learn that I disagree with pretty much everything you just said... There's just too much I disagree with to comment on, and it would drag things massively off subject.

To bring it back on subject, Tesdla currently down another 4.87%, those shorts are getting crushed...

[redsturgeon]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-elo ... ?r=US&IR=T

Apparently and somewhat unsurprisingly, it seems like some shortcuts were taken to (almost) achieve the promised numbers.

John

[BobbyD]

An industry expert told Business Insider that every automaker does this test to ensure quality and function.

- http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-elo ... ?r=US&IR=T

Every 'real' car company...

Surely stunts like this are just damaging the Tesla name? Better to miss a target by a few more hours than allow the story that you may have allowed dangerous vehicles to leave your factory. It's no wonder Tesla's tent is known as the big top.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
It's probably not going to surprise you to learn that I disagree with pretty much everything you just said... There's just too much I disagree with to comment on, and it would drag things massively off subject.

Thats fine.

If you are happy with your approach and its profitable for you then nothing else matters.

I started off as an investor but it never worked well enough for me.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

Apparently and somewhat unsurprisingly, it seems like some shortcuts were taken to (almost) achieve the promised numbers.

Indeed unsurprising. This sort of thing, combined with his approach to other peoples intellectual property and his apparent view that selling a "fun" blow torch that looks like water pistol and will "liven up a party", all combines to leave me thinking that Musk, and his endeavours are best dealt with using a very long bargepole. I can see Musk making a lot of lawyers very happy before too long!

Peter