Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

The National Transportation Safety Board is calling for stronger federal requirements for the design and use of automated driving systems on public roads in the U.S., and it’s citing Tesla as an example of why.

In a letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration last month, NTSB chief Robert Sumwalt named Tesla 16 times, and pointed to the company’s willingness to put a beta product on the road as one major reason to make rules clear and stringent at a federal level.

“Tesla recently released a beta version of its Level 2 Autopilot system, described as having full self-driving capability. By releasing the system, Tesla is testing on public roads a highly automated AV technology but with limited oversight or reporting requirements. Although Tesla includes a disclaimer that ‘currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous,’ NHTSA’s hands-off approach to oversight of AV testing poses a potential risk to motorists and other road users.”

- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/tesla-i ... -ntsb.html

[odysseus2000]

The National Transportation Safety Board is calling for stronger federal requirements for the design and use of automated driving systems on public roads in the U.S., and it’s citing Tesla as an example of why.

In a letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration last month, NTSB chief Robert Sumwalt named Tesla 16 times, and pointed to the company’s willingness to put a beta product on the road as one major reason to make rules clear and stringent at a federal level.

“Tesla recently released a beta version of its Level 2 Autopilot system, described as having full self-driving capability. By releasing the system, Tesla is testing on public roads a highly automated AV technology but with limited oversight or reporting requirements. Although Tesla includes a disclaimer that ‘currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous,’ NHTSA’s hands-off approach to oversight of AV testing poses a potential risk to motorists and other road users.”

- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/tesla-i ... -ntsb.html

Yes, it's like allowing people who have only to pass a very simple test drive. This poses a potential risk to motorists and other road users & in the uk leads to 10 deaths or serious injuries every day.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

FSD beta extended to 2000, some revoke for not paying enough attention (no accidents) next big release April:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/137 ... 58407?s=20

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting Nature article on using graphite with lithium Fe phosphate.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2705

They claim energy densities upto: 686 Wh kg−1 and with good long term use.

This is about the claimed limits for lithium ion batteries:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery

There is always a danger in extrapolating lab measurements to practical production, nevertheless these numbers are encouraging.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla market share still rising according to Piper Sandler:

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmani ... rket-share

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

From 1 hour 12 to about 1 hour 30 there is an interesting qualitative discussion of many things connected with self driving and the various techniques used, covering the transition from human labelling to machine labelling & the belief that self driving will eliminate many of the accidents that are currently experienced, but perhaps Miss a few that a human would catch:

https://youtu.be/G4hL5Om4IJ4

The podcast is anchored by Lex Friedman in conversation with Jim Keller who has a long career in computer architecture including time at Tesla.

Regards,

[dspp]

There is a lot of hints that FSD beta will get a significant increase in volume-release at the next .x release. Something of the order of going from ~2,000 to ~100,000 or thereabouts. That indicates that a) the unmanaged edge-case encounter rate must be down a heck of a lot and/or b) the ability of Dojo (or the interim trainer) to absorb field-edge-case-data has dramatically increased; and I suspect both.

regards, dspp

This is FSD beta 8.2 https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/statu ... 6730824704 which is pretty impressive. I don't think I'd be as confident as FSD beta is in those streets at that time of night.

A note from TMC re rollout status
8.2 => Added 1000 more people or whatever
8.3 => Maybe next week, adding 10k+ or whatever (the button!), 1000s of fixes perhaps, not a "significant change"
9.0 => April sometime, maybe, Tesla PureVision, the significant change referenced in Elon's tweet.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

A diy power wall goes wrong (1:08 mins):

https://youtu.be/pRaGIHFLeUg

Hints:

Don't work on fully charged power walls.

Don't drive screws in that can short charged lithium cells.

Best to have emergency containment procedure ready in place, like a steel box with lid.

Regards,

[NotSure]

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) disclosed: Effective as of March 15, 2021, the titles of Elon Musk and Zach Kirkhorn have changed to Technoking of Tesla and Master of Coin, respectively. Elon and Zach will also maintain their respective positions as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Said+Titles+of+Elon+Musk+and+Zach+Kirkhorn+have+changed+to+Technoking+of+Tesla+and+Master+of+Coin/18124944.html

All getting a bit 'Lord of the Rings'?

[odysseus2000]

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) disclosed: Effective as of March 15, 2021, the titles of Elon Musk and Zach Kirkhorn have changed to Technoking of Tesla and Master of Coin, respectively. Elon and Zach will also maintain their respective positions as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Said+Titles+of+Elon+Musk+and+Zach+Kirkhorn+have+changed+to+Technoking+of+Tesla+and+Master+of+Coin/18124944.html

All getting a bit 'Lord of the Rings'?

or maybe "Game of Thrones" and at the same time Jerome Guillen has become head of the semi program:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672487-e ... king_alpha

Kind of wonder if Tesla are going to launch a cyber currency with associated mining via optional ASIC (Application Specific Integrated circuit) available for all models and possibly power walls too.

As I understand things, none of this is priced into current valuation of Tesla, so that any announcement along these lines could move the equity up strongly.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Power Day: Volkswagen presents technology roadmap for batteries and charging up to 2030

Unified cell and synergies reduce battery costs by up to 50 percent

Six gigafactories with a total production capacity of 240 GWh secure battery supply in partnership model

“Northvolt Ett” in Skellefteå (Sweden) to be expanded up to 40 GWh

Salzgitter planned as second gigafactory with a production capacity of up to 40 GWh

Integration of the value chain: collaboration with suppliers to be intensified to recycle up to 95 percent of raw materials

18,000 fast-charging points: European network to be expanded five-fold with partners

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... -2030-6891

Battery maker Northvolt gets $14 billion order as Volkswagen raises ownership

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Northvolt said on Monday it had won an order worth more than $14 billion over 10 years from Germany’s Volkswagen, which increases its stake in the Swedish lithium-ion battery maker.

Northvolt also said it will sell its share in joint-venture Northvolt Zwei in Salzgitter to the world’s No. 2 carmaker, which becomes the German gigafactory’s single owner.

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKBN2B71GK

ETA: Did I mention Cuberg last week? If not:

Northvolt agrees to buy US battery start-up Cuberg

- https://www.ft.com/content/4df3dbea-524 ... 72810cfb01

[BobbyD]

Full power day presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qduJ1-tYH5g

[odysseus2000]

More colour on Tesla management changes:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672665-t ... king_alpha

Regards,

[dspp]

With thanks to @Todesbuckler on TMC

"The German financial newspaper "Handelsblatt" published in the print version today that Tesla will submit a
application for approval (German: Genehmigungsantrag) for the cell production in Berlin within the next weeks / at least until July 2021.
Berlin cell production should start 2022 and Tesla aims for 100GWh capacity annually (probably not initial capacity in 2022).
Long-term: 200-250 GWh annual capacity in Berlin."

So Kato Rd supplies Berlin until some point in 2022.

That Berlin shorter term capacity is enough for 1m cars/yr and the longer term capacity is enough for between 2m cars/yr and 2.5m cars/yr. Gives a feel for what Tesla are aiming for out of each of these Giga factories.

As a comparison I think VAG's 2030 aim is "Six gigafactories with a total production capacity of 240 GWh secure battery supply in partnership model"

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

As a comparison I think VAG's 2030 aim is "Six gigafactories with a total production capacity of 240 GWh secure battery supply in partnership model"

For VW's own vehicle production in Europe.

That doesn't include their own use outside Europe, or their ownership interest in cells sold to other manufacturers in Europe or outside Europe, or in cells sold in to other markets such as static storage and aviation...

ETA:

The first 4 of those 6 factories:

1. Northvolt Ett - Unified Cell - Premium NMC chemistry
2. VW Salzgitter - Unified Cell - Volume High Manganese chemistry
3. Spain/France/Portugal - If SEAT Martorell isn't first choice I'll eat my hat
4. TBD - Eastern Europe

[BobbyD]

NHTSA sends team to Detroit to investigate Tesla-semi crash

Detroit — The U.S. government's highway safety agency is sending a team to Detroit to investigate a crash involving a Tesla that drove beneath a semitrailer.

- https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/busine ... 713734001/

A 20-year-old man has died after a crash on the A5 in Milton Keynes late on Saturday evening.

The accident took place on the southbound carriageway between Caldecotte and Fenny Stratford shortly before 11pm.

A white Tesla model 3 car collided with a stationary grey Ford Transit Connect van - with the van's driver believed to have been hit by the car.

- https://www.buckinghamshirelive.com/new ... er-5170881

A driver was killed early Wednesday, March 10, in a fiery crash in Irvine that left one direction of a major road closed for several hours.

A Tesla was headed southbound at around 6:40 a.m. on Culver Drive, between Warner Avenue and Barranca Parkway, when for some reason it veered off of the road and hit a tree, Irvine Sgt. Karie Davies said.

- https://www.ocregister.com/2021/03/10/d ... d-closure/

[odysseus2000]

NHTSA sends team to Detroit to investigate Tesla-semi crash

Detroit — The U.S. government's highway safety agency is sending a team to Detroit to investigate a crash involving a Tesla that drove beneath a semitrailer.

- https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/busine ... 713734001/

A 20-year-old man has died after a crash on the A5 in Milton Keynes late on Saturday evening.

The accident took place on the southbound carriageway between Caldecotte and Fenny Stratford shortly before 11pm.

A white Tesla model 3 car collided with a stationary grey Ford Transit Connect van - with the van's driver believed to have been hit by the car.

- https://www.buckinghamshirelive.com/new ... er-5170881

A driver was killed early Wednesday, March 10, in a fiery crash in Irvine that left one direction of a major road closed for several hours.

A Tesla was headed southbound at around 6:40 a.m. on Culver Drive, between Warner Avenue and Barranca Parkway, when for some reason it veered off of the road and hit a tree, Irvine Sgt. Karie Davies said.

- https://www.ocregister.com/2021/03/10/d ... d-closure/

During these periods how many other people were killed or seriously injured in collisions that did not involve Tesla vehicles?

Ideally you would weight by distance driven of Tesla vehicles and distance driven of non-Tesla vehicles.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla crashes into Michigan State trooper on auto-pilot

LANSING, Mich. - A 22-year-old man from Lansing struck the rear-end of a Michigan State Police car while his Tesla was on autopilot, police said Wednesday morning.

MSP said that a state trooper had pulled off to the shoulder to investigate a traffic crash after a car struck a deer on I-96 near Waverly Road in Eaton County. That was around 1 a.m. Wednesday morning

With emergency lights activated and an officer investigating the crash, a Tesla traveling on autopilot slammed into the right rear end of the state police car.

- https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/tesla- ... auto-pilot

[odysseus2000]

This Tesla daily deals with VW Powerday, bringing in one of his mates who specialises in this area.

In my view it was quite disappointing as there isn't enough detail on the technology, but it does chime with my view that the VW presentation was aimed at investors and as such contains many forward looking views without substance, particularly on the solid state battery and also in terms of the mix of Fe-Phosphate and how this is affecting the price reductions that VW are targeting.

Still it does give some overall points of reference and time scales that are useful (24:28 mins):

https://youtu.be/EC9Bxu3Y5_w

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla crashes into Michigan State trooper on auto-pilot

LANSING, Mich. - A 22-year-old man from Lansing struck the rear-end of a Michigan State Police car while his Tesla was on autopilot, police said Wednesday morning.

MSP said that a state trooper had pulled off to the shoulder to investigate a traffic crash after a car struck a deer on I-96 near Waverly Road in Eaton County. That was around 1 a.m. Wednesday morning

With emergency lights activated and an officer investigating the crash, a Tesla traveling on autopilot slammed into the right rear end of the state police car.

- https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/tesla- ... auto-pilot

Re the Semi one :

Detroit Police Department Assistant Chief, David LeValley said that everything indicates that high speed was the main factor in the collision, and the car was being operated directly by the driver, not Autopilot.

"It appears that speed was a major factor in the collision. All the indications that we have at this point are that the vehicle was not in autopilot mode, that the driver was in control of the vehicle at the time of the crash."

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmani ... ays-police