The Lemon Fool

Published yesterday
https://av.sc.com/corp-en/content/docs/G7-to-E7-SCB-Trade-Performance-Index.pdf

Ranking seventh in Standard Chartered’s G7 to E7 Trade Performance Index, the UK has much to gain from looking further afield to the E7. Specifically, China and India represent sizeable growth opportunities for the UK.

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If the UK’s E7 exports were to meet expectations, the country’s overall trade to the E7 would increase by 43.2%, netting an additional US$14.5 billion — a significant economic boost at a time of modest growth.

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A more competitive British pound, having re-accelerated in 2017 after a weak performance in 2016, should support export growth in 2018. Meanwhile, imports are likely to slow due to higher costs and weaker demand. We expect the current account deficit to shrink gradually as export growth outpaces import growth and as investment income from abroad improves.
In 2019, we anticipate a post-Brexit transition agreement will leave UK trading arrangements with the EU broadly unchanged for two to three years; in that case, export growth is likely to be weak but positive.

I hope their economic predictions are better than their financial & share performance.

(disclosure: I both hold StanChart personally, and trade with many of the E7 in my day job)

regards, dspp

JamesMuenchen wrote:In 2019, we anticipate a post-Brexit transition agreement will leave UK trading arrangements with the EU broadly unchanged for two to three years; in that case, export growth is likely to be weak but positive.

https://av.sc.com/corp-en/content/docs/ ... -Index.pdf

I've had a chance to read it and I'm underwhelmed. Perhaps it is a public version of something more substantive that they hold more privately.

The biggest quibbles I would have are:
- where is Brazil; more generally the actual rationale for picking this E7 (versus any other) is weak;
- no account is taken of South-South trade going direct to eliminating N-S trade, i.e. without going through the substitution stage ;
- no explanation of what might be the actual stuff traded; specifically e.g. what can UK sell CN or IN that it is not already doing ? As far as I can see CN and IN are quite capable of doing everything they want themselves, except for the sectors where the UK already does export out, and except for those sectors where UK wouldn't want to export the goodies;

Like I said in my earlier post I do do trade with many of these countries, exporting from the UK. I am in-country fairly often. I do not argue with the premise that these are interesting countries with many opportunities, but getting beyond the hand-waving stage (which is all this is) is vital.

Having been that negative can I say thank you for putting it out & about. I am a critical reader so maybe I am being overcritical.

regards, dspp