2008 again?

[odysseus2000]

Still way too many opinions. What any investor thinks about a product has to be set by how other folk view the product.

Punter are not idiots, you may not have a run a business but if you do you will soon find that punters are smart and lazy, wanting what suits them at the lowest possible price. It requires skill to get them to buy expensive products and Apple have been very skilful. They created their own eco-system which has become part of many people’s lives and work. Many people I know function out of their iPhone, changing to another brand would not be easy, especially as folk have more and more stuff stored in iCloud

All your negatives on Apple I have heard for many years and yet Apple made its all time high in October of last year, so all of these opinions didn’t matter till then and i have known folk lose a lot of money shorting apple for the reasons you cite.

Earlier you mentioned the sales growth of Huawei as an upcoming maker of phones. Lets not forget their cfo was arrested recently in Canada and meanwhile GCHQ have spoken out about the dangers of using Huawei phones. No one has said Apple phones have the security dangers that Huawei have.

Whether an investors likes or loathes Apple is irrelevant. If it can be shown that Apple is unique and everyone else is doing great one has a thesis that it is all about Apple, but we have just had the worst ISM manufacturing index data since 2008 which suggests it ain’t just Apple:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/ism-man ... ember.html

Regards,

[PeterGray]

I don't necessarily agree they are ridiculously overpriced, but there is certainly some truth in what they say about being hit by Trump's trade war, which does have some general relevance. But I would also suggest that smartphones are an increasingly stable technology. I once used to replace every 1-2 years, these days it's 4. I got an iPhone 8 last year. I can't see that being replaced anytime soon. And that is something fairly Apple (or at least smart phone manufacturer, specific and tells us little about the markets as a whole.

[SalvorHardin]

Apple has a superb moat, locking in customers with the whole iTunes and iCloud setup. That and immense customer loyalty, is the main reason why Warren Buffett made Apple Berkshire Hathaway's largest shareholding.

The problem is that for several years Apple has been charging a premium price for a sub-premium product. New releases add very little in the way of features for most users, many of whom are more concerned about the poor battery life. Consequently there is much less incentive for people to upgrade their iphones every time a new one comes out, which is going to hit hardware sales badly.

There is still huge demand for Apple's services, just not as much demand for new iPhones as there used to be.

The spread of the "Right to Repair" movement in the States, where there is increasing political pressure to stop manufacturers making their devices deliberately difficult to repair, can't be doing Apple any good. The publicity about Apple deliberately slowing down older phones won't help.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electro ... _to_repair

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42508300

It also doesn't help that Apple is increasingly run by Social Justice Warrior types.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

The spread of the "Right to Repair" movement in the States, where there is increasing political pressure to stop manufacturers making their devices deliberately difficult to repair, can't be doing Apple any good. The publicity about Apple deliberately slowing down older phones won't help.

Wow! I must admit I hate to buy stuff I can't at least try to fix myself. And given how, the States purports to be the land of the free, I would envisage a bitter fight between those R2R folk and those lobbying for corporate $$$ interests.

[odysseus2000]

Apple has a superb moat, locking in customers with the whole iTunes and iCloud setup. That and immense customer loyalty, is the main reason why Warren Buffett made Apple Berkshire Hathaway's largest shareholding.

The problem is that for several years Apple has been charging a premium price for a sub-premium product. New releases add very little in the way of features for most users, many of whom are more concerned about the poor battery life. Consequently there is much less incentive for people to upgrade their iphones every time a new one comes out, which is going to hit hardware sales badly.

There is still huge demand for Apple's services, just not as much demand for new iPhones as there used to be.

The spread of the "Right to Repair" movement in the States, where there is increasing political pressure to stop manufacturers making their devices deliberately difficult to repair, can't be doing Apple any good. The publicity about Apple deliberately slowing down older phones won't help.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electro ... _to_repair

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42508300

It also doesn't help that Apple is increasingly run by Social Justice Warrior types.

These are among the perhenial arguments of the bears.

Innovation or lack of

Whether a photo id, larger screens, faster processors, VR capability, much better camera are significant upgrades is another opinion issue. Some folk love them, others don't

If Apple stuff is sub-premium, who is premium and why? Don't forget that the Chinese phones have been slated as un-secure by gchq and Google phones are well behind in operating system upgrades which leaves Samsung as the main competitor and are their phones so much better than iPhones? They are certainly of similar price. Folk then cite Indian clones and how cheap they are and yet I have never seen one being used in the UK.

RTR

This one always amuses me. Folk say they want something they can self repair, which means they don't want a house in the UK as one has been forbidden to repair electric and gas systems for years. They then say, no they mean they want something that they can pay someone to repair, but in practice they don't `when one looks at the cost. Back in the 20th century when things were much simpler, repair was practical, but now how many people can even see the size of components that go into an iPhone and have the tools to work with them. I can as I build electronics, but very few folk have the equipment or knowledge. They then argue that they want the ability to change batteries, except when they realise that a lithium battery stores a huge amount of energy and if it is mistreated it can explosively set on fire sometime later.

There have been several legal moves in the US to crate rtr, most have failed although there is an industry in the Dakota's aimed at repair. Then one starts to think about the cost. Electronic gadgets require skilled folk to repair them, not minimum wage of £7.83 per hour but something like at least 3x, so about £24 per hour and with all the collection and over heads it is likely £75 per hour plus components, add on vat and postage and insurance and that soon reaches a point where folk won't pay. If someone does pay and then tries to sell their phone or trade it in, they realise that it is worth little more than they spent of repairs, sometimes less.There is a very similar calculus in car repair with the local Audi garage charging £175/hour plus parts for jobs and so folk prefer to trade in their cars rather than pay.

rtr has become obsolete.

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Ody,

I would imagine RTR is most contentious in the repair (by semi pro) and resale arena for the likes of Apple. That is probably and rightly so where they receive the most hurt.

For instance my entire family of four, has never paid for a brand new phone. There is no point since there exists an endless supply of very cheap Samsung (one time Nokia or Motorola) phones either cheap second or third hand or free mobile, which are present since so many fashion/brand aware will dispose of a 1/2 year old phone upon upgrade.

We never had any iPhones in my family, but my youngest has been banging on about one for yonks. This Xmas she looked asked for no presents from relatives, but just money towards this iPhone. The result was a refurbished iPhone 7plus for £350 from ebay. There is obviously a thriving business for people in this line, and imagine this what Apple etc. might wish to prohibit.

I personally consider it a right to be allowed to repair ones own possessions, e.g. Cars, powertools, and domestic appliances, where it is possible to do so. It encourages reuse and longevity which in an increasingly landfilled world is a good thing.

Perhaps rtr harms investors? But it is generally good for consumers and as above encourages grass roots capitalism.

Matt

[odysseus2000]

Ody,

I would imagine RTR is most contentious in the repair (by semi pro) and resale arena for the likes of Apple. That is probably and rightly so where they receive the most hurt.

For instance my entire family of four, has never paid for a brand new phone. There is no point since there exists an endless supply of very cheap Samsung (one time Nokia or Motorola) phones either cheap second or third hand or free mobile, which are present since so many fashion/brand aware will dispose of a 1/2 year old phone upon upgrade.

We never had any iPhones in my family, but my youngest has been banging on about one for yonks. This Xmas she looked asked for no presents from relatives, but just money towards this iPhone. The result was a refurbished iPhone 7plus for £350 from ebay. There is obviously a thriving business for people in this line, and imagine this what Apple etc. might wish to prohibit.

I personally consider it a right to be allowed to repair ones own possessions, e.g. Cars, powertools, and domestic appliances, where it is possible to do so. It encourages reuse and longevity which in an increasingly landfilled world is a good thing.

Perhaps rtr harms investors? But it is generally good for consumers and as above encourages grass roots capitalism.

Matt

Have you ever listened to an Apple conference call? The topic of right to repair, older models and how they affect sales is never far from the the questioners thoughts.

Cook has been clear about this on many conference calls. Apple welcomes the re-use of older phones (Apple even sell reconditioned stuff) and notes how many folk start off with a second hand Apple product and then migrate into the Apple eco-system.This is what happened to me. I bought an iPad, liked it and then I bought a second hand iPhone 4s that I still use every day. Then I got so fed up with Microsoft re-booting my computer and all the time I was having to spend waiting that I bought a MacBook which is by far the best of the several laptops I have owned. Now I used these 3 products for a lot of my daily stuff and meanwhile develop Arduino applications and other electronics. This might be the Apple route your daughter follows. Even if she never buys anything new from Apple she will likely use their services and anyhow a second hand Apple is not putting money into a competitors account. More interesting is why she so lusted after an iPhone and not some other makers product.

The RTR has become something of a crusade among a group of folk who seem to have several aims, one of which is to force manufacturers to make products that are much easier to repair, often this would mean larger and more clunky and suppress innovation. The manufactures argue that consumers should have the choice and if some manufacturer offers easy to repair devices that is fine but that no one should be forced to make a product that is designed to be easily repairable over other considerations. RTR as many of the folk who champion it want, would put non commercial considerations onto to products and most folk don't want second hand anyhow for the reasons I mentioned in earlier posts. The whole concept is out of date. Ford in his early 20 th century biography noted how his business was making things that were cheaper to buy new than repair, that was over 100 years ago. This of course lead to more waste and landfill, but the argument about rtr saving landfill is also obsolete as most (all?) Apple products can now be recycled to recover most if not all the raw materials. Apple in particular have been leaders in this and I imagine that politicians will eventually force other makers to do the same which will be a win win for everyone.

Regards,

[ReformedCharacter]

Ford in his early 20 th century biography noted how his business was making things that were cheaper to buy new than repair, that was over 100 years ago.
Regards,

Ford also pioneered built-in obsolescence, a concept so alien to my father and his ilk that he wouldn't touch a Ford with the proverbial bargepole. I've never owned one either.

RC

[odysseus2000]

Ford in his early 20 th century biography noted how his business was making things that were cheaper to buy new than repair, that was over 100 years ago.
Regards,

Ford also pioneered built-in obsolescence, a concept so alien to my father and his ilk that he wouldn't touch a Ford with the proverbial bargepole. I've never owned one either.

RC

Yes, he did and I also loathe the idea, but most of the population love it.

I was getting anti-freeze to put in my tractor and wanted a 50% solution so I checked the bottle to be sure this was still the right dilution and then found it was not designed for dilution, just for straight use, already pre-diluted.

Probably most folk like the idea that they just tip the stuff in till the radiator is full, but when you think of the additional packaging and weight of pre-diluted its kind of wild.

Whether I like it or not, this is the way things mostly are. I did eventually track down some concentrate at a car shop which I used and it was about half the price of the pre-diluted, but folk in general rarely care about price either.

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Whether I like it or not, this is the way things mostly are. I did eventually track down some concentrate at a car shop which I used and it was about half the price of the pre-diluted, but folk in general rarely care about price either.

Nonsense. We always get our stuff (A/F) as concentrate and distilled water, then we just mix ourselves. Mel just gets from a regular motor-factor.

[odysseus2000]

Whether I like it or not, this is the way things mostly are. I did eventually track down some concentrate at a car shop which I used and it was about half the price of the pre-diluted, but folk in general rarely care about price either.

Nonsense. We always get our stuff (A/F) as concentrate and distilled water, then we just mix ourselves. Mel just gets from a regular motor-factor.

I am talking about what most folk do. In my local Asda they had Bluecol & Prestone, both said they could mix with any anti-freeze & were already diluted for use.

Sure if you know what you are doing & visit a motor factor as I did you can get concentrate, but there was none in my local Asda or Morrisons. I suspect most folk shop at supermarkets, the reason for this belief is that most of the local car shops have disappeared.

Incidentally I suspect you do not get distilled water, but instead get de-ionised water, the former is expensive & few shops carry it, the latter is low cost & carried everywhere.

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Whether I like it or not, this is the way things mostly are. I did eventually track down some concentrate at a car shop which I used and it was about half the price of the pre-diluted, but folk in general rarely care about price either.

Nonsense. We always get our stuff (A/F) as concentrate and distilled water, then we just mix ourselves. Mel just gets from a regular motor-factor.

I am talking about what most folk do. In my local Asda they had Bluecol & Prestone, both said they could mix with any anti-freeze & were already diluted for use.

Sure if you know what you are doing & visit a motor factor as I did you can get concentrate, but there was none in my local Asda or Morrisons. I suspect most folk shop at supermarkets, the reason for this belief is that most of the local car shops have disappeared.

Incidentally I suspect you do not get distilled water, but instead get de-ionised water, the former is expensive & few shops carry it, the latter is low cost & carried everywhere.

Regards,

Yeah usually deionised.

Problem with antifreezes is that certain ones shouldn't really be mixed. e.g. don't mix blue and pink. I've done this type of work since my teens and have now forgotten some of the chemical differences.....but the blue and pink use different active compounds (blah).

We *always* use blue, and mix it to give down to -20 C* protection. And religously flush out and change every 2 years. Tends to help running alloy cylinder heads for 200k+.

I love the way we are still discussing a "Macro and Global Topic"

[PeterGray]

We never had any iPhones in my family, but my youngest has been banging on about one for yonks. This Xmas she looked asked for no presents from relatives, but just money towards this iPhone. The result was a refurbished iPhone 7plus for £350 from ebay. There is obviously a thriving business for people in this line, and imagine this what Apple etc. might wish to prohibit.

Apple buy back old iPhones in part exchange. I don't know what happens to them, but I doubt they break them up. Apple sell refurbished iPads, iPods etc, but not obviously iPhones - would be no great surprise if they passed them on to someone else to refurbish.

Much as I like the idea of repair it yourself - in my much younger years I built two working motorcycles from piles of bits and cannibalisation, and I upgraded the memory of a first generation 128kb mac by soldering new memory chips onto the motherboard, the reality is that if you limit yourself to easy to repair stuff you don't end up with products like an iPhone. I did look at replacing the broken screen of my old iPad mini myself, but when I looked into it I decided it simply wasn't worth the risks. Buying the bits would have cost nearly as much as getting a cheap online service, who know what they are doing, to do it for me. Yes Apple would have cost more, but I had that choice - keep the full guarantee etc and pay more or get it done cheaper. That seems a reasonable choice to me.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

We never had any iPhones in my family, but my youngest has been banging on about one for yonks. This Xmas she looked asked for no presents from relatives, but just money towards this iPhone. The result was a refurbished iPhone 7plus for £350 from ebay. There is obviously a thriving business for people in this line, and imagine this what Apple etc. might wish to prohibit.

Apple buy back old iPhones in part exchange. I don't know what happens to them, but I doubt they break them up. Apple sell refurbished iPads, iPods etc, but not obviously iPhones - would be no great surprise if they passed them on to someone else to refurbish.

I guess the key observation here, is that Apple are ok with the concept of reuse, so long as they stay in the loop of any additional revenues of the re-sales. Pretty transparent really.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... california

I imagine Apple to reply with some nonsensical health and safety issue.

[odysseus2000]

Apple do sell refurbished iPhones:

https://www.apple.com/shop/refurbished/iphone

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Apple do sell refurbished iPhones:

https://www.apple.com/shop/refurbished/iphone

Regards,

We know this Ody.....but by trying to prevent RTR, they are attempting create a monopoly in which they are the only company doing this.

$$$

[odysseus2000]

Apple do sell refurbished iPhones:

https://www.apple.com/shop/refurbished/iphone

Regards,

We know this Ody.....but by trying to prevent RTR, they are attempting create a monopoly in which they are the only company doing this.

$$$

I was referring to Peter Gray's post where he said Apple don't sell refurbished iPhones.

All manufacturers have loathed rtr because it means stuff that you have spent a lot of time developing can be re-sold by someone who doesn't do it properly and then gives a user a bad experience, thereby tarnishing the brand and because as I said earlier that making stuff rtr friendly would compromise the product. This has been the status-quo in manufacturing since the Industrial revolution.

However, we are now seeing more Open Source where the manufacturer provides all the design files and allows anyone to work on it. Adafruit in New York are one of the Pioneers, Creality in China have just opened sourced the CR10 printer which I own, Tesla have open sourced all its patents... Whether this leads to a change in business is unclear, but from my perspective the use of patents by Microsoft slowed down the computer revolution and they fought to stop anyone modifying (called hacking) anything, including xBox which Adafruit countered by offering cash rewards to anyone who did hack Xbox.

I have no idea how this will develop but it should lower costs for users and allow folk with the necessary technical skill to make things do exactly what they need. Since Creality open sourced the CR10, sales have gone up and as I have one of these I can say that I find it to be outstandingly good.

Regards,

PS the latest in Anti freeze is Red with a 5 year service life.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

However, we are now seeing more Open Source where the manufacturer provides all the design files and allows anyone to work on it. Adafruit in New York are one of the Pioneers, Creality in China have just opened sourced the CR10 printer which I own, Tesla have open sourced all its patents... Whether this leads to a change in business is unclear, but from my perspective the use of patents by Microsoft slowed down the computer revolution and they fought to stop anyone modifying (called hacking) anything, including xBox which Adafruit countered by offering cash rewards to anyone who did hack Xbox.

That's a can of worms you opened there! I've been in S/W for 25+years. The history of Open Source, suggests that typically it was software nerds (e.g. Torvalds of Linux fame) who would share their creation with the world for virtually nothing.

All the big players, have then taken advantage of this stuff and whilst *sometimes* supplying additional funding, they have, by and large, made gazillions from what was initally developed "for free".

The most glaring example is the OpenSSL stack released under Apache-style license, which has enabled firms to freely integrate secure/encrypted communications to their products. e.g. phones, routers, Operating Systems. I personally integrated this into a VoIP product back in 2006.

Opensource is a win-win for Apple - they are one of the big guns in harnessing this, and being somewhat frugal about what goes back to the community.

Matt

[PeterGray]

I was referring to Peter Gray's post where he said Apple don't sell refurbished iPhones.

I was basing that on a quick look at an Apple website which had iPads, iPods, Macs etc, but no iPhones for sale refurbished. I may have been looking in the wrong place, or they might just not have any at present.

I can't say I'm surprised if they do - since they sell everything else refurbished, and they are certainly happy to part exchange used ones.

[odysseus2000]

Apple argue they put a lot back in to the US:

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/01/ ... -creation/

Regards,