China 'ready to work with the US' on trade...

[Itsallaguess]

China has said it is "ready to work" with the US, suggesting progress in trade talks between the two countries.

It said it would be willing to work with the US to "implement the important consensus" reached at December's G20.

At the Buenos Aires summit the two countries agreed to suspend new trade tariffs for 90 days to allow for talks.

China's statement comes after President Donald Trump tweeted "big progress" was being made in relations after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714985

It definitely feels like there's a few issues and threats are affecting market-sentiment currently, so it would be nice if a few of those could be cleared up in a positive way in the New Year...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[monabri]

Hopefully they're make the bigliest of progress, a good,...good job!

[odysseus2000]

China has said it is "ready to work" with the US, suggesting progress in trade talks between the two countries.

It said it would be willing to work with the US to "implement the important consensus" reached at December's G20.

At the Buenos Aires summit the two countries agreed to suspend new trade tariffs for 90 days to allow for talks.

China's statement comes after President Donald Trump tweeted "big progress" was being made in relations after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714985

It definitely feels like there's a few issues and threats are affecting market-sentiment currently, so it would be nice if a few of those could be cleared up in a positive way in the New Year...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

The problem with the tweets of Trump and Xi is that they are almost all optimistic and speak of good things, hopeful developments etc etc and then sometimes events support the tweets (e.g. as in North Korea), other times nothing happens (e.g Tariff).

It is a lottery made ridiculous by the intensity of the hate tweets that follow any Trump tweets. There is so much of it and a lot of it is quite well thought out amidst the crudity and vileness that I have to believe that the tweeters are funded by some organisation. How many people have the time to be endlessly typing critical tweets; even trolls need money.

I would like to believe that we will soon see a solution to many of the trade tariffs and that the US and China will get along, but I am a little less positive than I was as sometimes I begin to wonder if Trump and Xi both have hidden agendas.

Meanwhile there is Powell and Fed raising rates for reasons that I can not find.

2019 with all of this and possibly Brexit too might be volatile!

Regards,

[dspp]

This may interest to those with a CHINA / USA matters:

The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement
Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institut ... engagement

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

This may interest to those with a CHINA / USA matters:

The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement
Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institut ... engagement

- dspp

To me the most interesting aspect of the current political world is the void that is Europe.

While the rise of China and the quality and low cost of Chinese manufactured products amazes me, as does the US dominance in so many of the things that define the 21st century experience, what I find most interesting is that Europe offers very little of what I would describe as 21st century products.

Analysis like Rudd's imho are so focused on China/US that they ignore what I see as potentially the most destabilising political and economic decline that is modern Europe.

Should Europe continue in this manner the whole edifice of American power in the Atlantic built around NATO looks weak and vulnerable to shocks in the East from Russia and/or internal European friction of which Brexit may be just the first.

The political world is always very complex and often most unstable when one large political block becomes unstable with unpredictable consequences.

Regards,

[dspp]

This may interest to those with a CHINA / USA matters:

The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement
Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institut ... engagement

- dspp

To me the most interesting aspect of the current political world is the void that is Europe.

While the rise of China and the quality and low cost of Chinese manufactured products amazes me, as does the US dominance in so many of the things that define the 21st century experience, what I find most interesting is that Europe offers very little of what I would describe as 21st century products.

Analysis like Rudd's imho are so focused on China/US that they ignore what I see as potentially the most destabilising political and economic decline that is modern Europe.

Should Europe continue in this manner the whole edifice of American power in the Atlantic built around NATO looks weak and vulnerable to shocks in the East from Russia and/or internal European friction of which Brexit may be just the first.

The political world is always very complex and often most unstable when one large political block becomes unstable with unpredictable consequences.

Regards,

02000,
Odd that you should say this, given that the machines that make your shiny Tesla battery packs are German. In general I would say that Europe remains excellent in much hi-tech, just not so often the shiny shiny consumer goods aspects of it. You need to dig deeper than the superficialities to see this. Remember Germany has a trade surplus with China, and it is not by selling bad wine.
regards,
dspp

[redsturgeon]

To me the most interesting aspect of the current political world is the void that is Europe.

While the rise of China and the quality and low cost of Chinese manufactured products amazes me, as does the US dominance in so many of the things that define the 21st century experience, what I find most interesting is that Europe offers very little of what I would describe as 21st century products.

Analysis like Rudd's imho are so focused on China/US that they ignore what I see as potentially the most destabilising political and economic decline that is modern Europe.

Should Europe continue in this manner the whole edifice of American power in the Atlantic built around NATO looks weak and vulnerable to shocks in the East from Russia and/or internal European friction of which Brexit may be just the first.

The political world is always very complex and often most unstable when one large political block becomes unstable with unpredictable consequences.

Regards,

As I look around me I see very little that is made in the USA. I drive German cars, have bikes made in Taiwan, a Swiss watch, German white goods, a Korean TV and phone, UK and Italian made furniture, French kitchenware, Belgian beer, Ilalian and Spanish produce a Danish woodburner, Persian and Afghan rugs. I guess I use Google and Amazon and watch Netflix.

John

[odysseus2000]

DSPP, RedSturgeon, Snorvey,

I believe you all made my points very well.

Yes, Europe still makes the stuff it used to do, but the new industries that have emerged in the late 20th & early 21st are not European.

As folk mentioned, we all use a Google to access all the information in the world, Msft/Apple for most of our computing needs, SatNav provided by US satellites, Salesforce for many business, many shop on Amazon & eBay, Netflix for much entertainment,PayPal for secure purchases, many drink coffee from Starbucks et al & there are several US food chains all over the UK.

All of these US business have emerged recently, all are very profitable. Why are there no European versions? Once Europe competed as e.g. Airbus v Boeing, but in most of these new industries there is no competition. Why e.g. didn't the Royal Mail develop its own secure PayPal? Why don't we have a European competitor to all of the rest. Why did Tesla become the first electric car company to connect with the public re the potential of electric traction?

For some reason all the new modern business are not being developed in Europe. If I was a politician I would worry about that. It never happened before, Europe e.g. manufactures all manner of white goods & competes with US makers, but for some reason the competive entrepreneurial spirit that has long been part of Europe is no longer doing stuff on international scales. There are of course multitudes of UK small business that are often excellent products and services, but the new rapidly growing business of scale have become an American & Chinese phenomenon. Why?

Regards,

[dspp]

DSPP, RedSturgeon, Snorvey,

I believe you all made my points very well.

Yes, Europe still makes the stuff it used to do, but the new industries that have emerged in the late 20th & early 21st are not European.

As folk mentioned, we all use a Google to access all the information in the world, Msft/Apple for most of our computing needs, SatNav provided by US satellites, Salesforce for many business, many shop on Amazon & eBay, Netflix for much entertainment,PayPal for secure purchases, many drink coffee from Starbucks et al & there are several US food chains all over the UK.

All of these US business have emerged recently, all are very profitable. Why are there no European versions? Once Europe competed as e.g. Airbus v Boeing, but in most of these new industries there is no competition. Why e.g. didn't the Royal Mail develop its own secure PayPal? Why don't we have a European competitor to all of the rest. Why did Tesla become the first electric car company to connect with the public re the potential of electric traction?

For some reason all the new modern business are not being developed in Europe. If I was a politician I would worry about that. It never happened before, Europe e.g. manufactures all manner of white goods & competes with US makers, but for some reason the competive entrepreneurial spirit that has long been part of Europe is no longer doing stuff on international scales. There are of course multitudes of UK small business that are often excellent products and services, but the new rapidly growing business of scale have become an American & Chinese phenomenon. Why?

Regards,

Er, Galileo launched on Arianespace is both more accurate than GPS, and made in Europe, but don't let that stop you picking the wrong examples.

I fully accept that in some areas Europe is not a leader, and not so prominent, and that software is one of them. There are good reasons for that, and the increasing integration of the EU is slowly reversing those reasons. (the UK leaving is a magnificent own goal in that respect)

However you are not understanding how modern and ongoing the boring technical/industrial stuff is. When I visit factories and manufacturers around the world it is European labs they are relying on, European machinery, and European designs. Not solely, but very often. It may not be -in-your-face consumerist stuff, but it is deep and it is there.

(by-the-way European integration on defence technology has moved on a long way, far beyond the jingoistic stuff you see some people citing)

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

DSPP
Er, Galileo launched on Arianespace is both more accurate than GPS, and made in Europe, but don't let that stop you picking the wrong examples.

I fully accept that in some areas Europe is not a leader, and not so prominent, and that software is one of them. There are good reasons for that, and the increasing integration of the EU is slowly reversing those reasons. (the UK leaving is a magnificent own goal in that respect)

However you are not understanding how modern and ongoing the boring technical/industrial stuff is. When I visit factories and manufacturers around the world it is European labs they are relying on, European machinery, and European designs. Not solely, but very often. It may not be -in-your-face consumerist stuff, but it is deep and it is there.

(by-the-way European integration on defence technology has moved on a long way, far beyond the jingoistic stuff you see some people citing)

regards, dspp

Yes, but you are reinforcing my points. Galileo may be better but it is only recently deployed & not using 40 year old technology so one can expect it will be better.

But anyhow who made all the money out of GPS? It was the folk who made the consumer stuff, now it's Apple & Samsung as a facility on every phone, whether the signal be GPS, Gallileo, the Russuan one & the coming Chinese one.

It is all great that European technology is alive and well in industrial labs, but where are the consumer profits from all of this? Sure European defence may be more integrated, but the UK still buys a lot of stuff from the US, including as I understand it cruise missiles fitted to our ships & submarines, aircraft on our carrier & a load of other kit too.

The days when the uk led the world in military aviation died with Tsr2 & the culling of the U.K. rocket program etc. Sure there is now talk of a U.K. rocket launch facility in Scotland & a whole bunch of nerds doing all kinds of interesting stuff that makes no money.

Every time I have looked at the picks & shovels of modern technology it has always failed to make any money, all the money has been made by the consumer product companies & that leads to a more prosperous & stronger nation via tax take etc.

As I look at Europe I see an entity in secular decline, not unlike the UK of the 1970's. Great skill in many technical areas but an inability to turn all of that knowledge into money & a political class focused on managing decline & not on supporting wealth creation.

Contrast that to the US & China & you have my view of why Europe is in trouble.

Regards,

[dspp]

Actually Galileo signals are pretty relevant to BAe's profits. They allow BAe to guarantee on time / on target precision delivery (or encrypted comms, etc etc etc) without being hostage to USA. Not having access to Galileo's encrypted level means BAe cannot guarantee that. Which fairly directly impacts BAe in both UK and MidEast and will do so for decades to come. Too many own goals like that and UK aerospace will be no more (wings included, where on this pathway the next Airbus wing will be either in Spain or Germany).

The underlying point is that the boring industrial stuff that the ya ya types keep overlooking, is ordinarily the high profit bits. And the Europeans are pretty good at it which is why the EU runs an almost balanced trade account. In fact take out the UK and it may well balance.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... e_in_goods
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/national ... anuary2018

By the way the clever bit of (some of) the "cruise missiles" fitted to the RN's ships and submarines is, er, British. That is why that one is/was called RNSH. (though Tomahawk is not). Likewise the cruise missile fitted to the RAF aircraft is European (MBDA). And the F35 buy is a net positive for UK mfg as the only level 1 nation. And one way or another European defence industry is consolidating and remaining very viable. Yeah it may not be shiny shiny Apple in your pocket, but it makes money.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Yes, you have given the classic UK/European rhetoric of how we are world leaders in many fields. Usually the proponents of this thesis cite pharmaceuticals and the UK’s great Universities and the Royal Society saying how important research is. Michael Heseltine is a grand speaker on this and other pro-European lines.

It is a nice seductive line of thought and has crippled the UK and Europe because it does not lead to significant money.

If we take BAE, it has 2017 revenue of £17b, profits of £1.9b, Boeing by contrast has $93b revenue, profit $17b. Which ever way you look at it, BAE is a much smaller player and less profitable business than Boeing.

If you look at Nflx, you have (2018) revenue of $15.8B and profits of $5.8 billion.

I could go on and on comparing US and European corporations ,but when ever I have done this the results have rarely been flattering to European companies. Sure they may employ clever people and make clever stuff and their employees may do well, less so the shareholders and much less so the rest of the population.

The UK does clever stuff is the theme song of the universities and the rest of the system that supports them. But it does nothing much for the majority of the population and that would be fine if we didn’t have a democracy, but when the majority of the populations are not doing that well it should come as no surprise that they vote for Brexit and Trump.

So long as the European leaders remain focused on Europe is best and ignore the secular decline there is going to be trouble as the emerging producers and particularly China will eat the lunch of many European countries.
Meanwhile you have the fault lines where the prosperous north loves the weak the Euro and poor south hates the strong Euro.

If I was asked to pick the most likely regional area for conflict going forwards it would be Europe.

The robotics and AI revolution may change things, but for now the relative decline of Europe concerns me the most, especially because the European political experiment is so inward focused that it missing the secular decline as it tries to bring together folk who have very different traditions and very different economies and the rich north is treating the poor south very badly imho.


Regards,

[dspp]

Be careful ody, you are oversimplifying,

1. I'm not saying that Europe is perfect. I'm saying it is better than you give it credit for; and

2. One would expect that on a long run reversion-to-the-mean basis it ought to be reducing (after all China and India were once the manufactories of the world, several centuries ago); and

3. Fragmentation has costs, which are only slowly being overcome in Europe (or reversed in the case of Brexit); and

4. Ownership structures differ, so you don't get to see many of the highly profitable mittelstands on the stock exchange in Europe, whereas their counterparts in USA do tend to be seen. This can be seen when you compare PPP GDP/capita data vs stock market data (or in my case where I see them in person).

So in general I think the picture is much more complex than you give it credit for. But if you want to live in a world of simple then I'll get out of your way as I'm really not that fussed.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

It is kind of interesting how I have had to teach myself that in technical stuff that complication is a very common phenomenon and I have had to train myself to analyse and understand it and in academic environments I was rewarded for this.

Buffett however, teaches that in business and life simple is better.

So I have had to train myself to think in two different ways depending upon what I am studying.

Thinking simple having been trained to PhD level is very much more difficult than many imagine.

Perhaps I have gone too far with simplification, but I am also deeply suspicious of complicated analysis like Rudd's which I feel is too detailed & over focused to be of practical use and is too US-Chinese focused.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

This is an interesting take on China and potentially some of the ideas that are influencing Trump in his China negotiations:

https://youtu.be/0XgS5wUiCIU

Regards,