Climate Change Committee

[daveh]

What, for instance, do you intend to do about Centrica (one of my big losers) given caps, Corbyn and the environment factor which will, I read this week, mean that gas cookers and boilers will be verboten in a few years' time? I haven't yet sussed out what the alternatives will be and how feasible and costly it will be to install them. Living in a much extended mostly single storey house, with two separate heating circuits, the mind boggles. Perhaps we should be buying shares in heat pump manufacturers or the likes of SSE, if the caps don't put us off and if enough electricity can be produced to cope with the demands of storage heating and electric cars but won't producing that cause just as many environmental problems as gas does? Is this another one the govt. hasn't thought through properly?

That's not what the climate change committee said. They said that there should be a moratorium on new connections to the gas grid at a date in the future, not that everyone should be forced to change who already has gas appliances installed. In my view its a very sensible suggestion if we want to reduce our production of carbon dioxide as it will reduce future gas as once appliances are installed there is a long lead time before they are likely to be replaced, it also is sensible as we are becoming more reliant on gas from abroad which may make security of supply difficult in the future. Of course we still have the fact that a lot of our electricity is produced from gas plant, so from a climate change perspective that will also need to be dealt with presumably replaced as it comes to the end of its useful life?

The answer to you final question will depend on the generation mix used to produce the electricity.

Moderator Message:
This off-topic part of the discussion moved from HYP-P to The Snug. - Chris

Moderator Message:
RS: Probably best to move this to Macro Topics.

[Bouleversee]

What, for instance, do you intend to do about Centrica (one of my big losers) given caps, Corbyn and the environment factor which will, I read this week, mean that gas cookers and boilers will be verboten in a few years' time? I haven't yet sussed out what the alternatives will be and how feasible and costly it will be to install them. Living in a much extended mostly single storey house, with two separate heating circuits, the mind boggles. Perhaps we should be buying shares in heat pump manufacturers or the likes of SSE, if the caps don't put us off and if enough electricity can be produced to cope with the demands of storage heating and electric cars but won't producing that cause just as many environmental problems as gas does? Is this another one the govt. hasn't thought through properly?

That's not what the climate change committee said. They said that there should be a moratorium on new connections to the gas grid at a date in the future, not that everyone should be forced to change who already has gas appliances installed. In my view its a very sensible suggestion if we want to reduce our production of carbon dioxide as it will reduce future gas as once appliances are installed there is a long lead time before they are likely to be replaced, it also is sensible as we are becoming more reliant on gas from abroad which may make security of supply difficult in the future. Of course we still have the fact that a lot of our electricity is produced from gas plant, so from a climate change perspective that will also need to be dealt with presumably replaced as it comes to the end of its useful life?

The answer to you final question will depend on the generation mix used to produce the electricity.

I assumed the heading "Ban gas hobs and heating in six years, ministers told" was a trifle overdramatic and existing equipment would not have to be replaced at that point. However, I am still not clear what happens when your cooker and boilers need replacing, as mine will by that time. Are you saying one will still be able to replace like with like? Apols. for OT but it is at least of general interest methinks and will still affect Centrica not that long hence since some builders will possibly start planning along those lines now.

[daveh]

...

I assumed the heading "Ban gas hobs and heating in six years, ministers told" was a trifle overdramatic and existing equipment would not have to be replaced at that point. However, I am still not clear what happens when your cooker and boilers need replacing, as mine will by that time. Are you saying one will still be able to replace like with like? Apols. for OT but it is at least of general interest methinks and will still affect Centrica not that long hence since some builders will possibly start planning along those lines now.

Who knows. At the moment (as I understand it) and independent committee made a recommendation to ministers that new build properties should not be allowed to connect to the gas grid at a date in the future (I think that is how it was phrased, but it was a quote in a news article so I could be wrong). That would suggest that if you were already connected to the grid you could replace like with like. However, all this will be up to how (or if) any of this is implemented by a government in the future. Personally I'm not worrying about buying or not fossil fuel companies for my HYP over this, I don't think this will affect dividends for quite a while. I don't own CNA, but do own SSE, BP, Shell and Petrofac all of which could be affected under the general heading of changes due to "Climate Change Issues". I think it comes under the Strategic Ignorance banner and is too far in the future to worry about.

Also isn't Centrica also a supplier of electricity so if builders start moving towards all electric houses will they not just be able to move their business more towards the electricity supply rather than gas?

[Bouleversee]

Daveh :

Having just looked up the Times article online and seen the reams of scathing comments, I think you are right. It may never get off the ground. Air source ground pumps certainly don't sound like any improvement and are to be avoided.

[daveh]

Daveh :

Having just looked up the Times article online and seen the reams of scathing comments, I think you are right. It may never get off the ground. Air source ground pumps certainly don't sound like any improvement and are to be avoided.

I don't know that air source heat pumps are a problem - I think if I had to go all electric (at the moment I'm stuck in the dark ages as I burn wood for my heating ) that is one possibility I'd look at, but the insulation of my house would have to improve. I think we are probably getting a bit OT here, but my neighbours have an air source heat pump which replaced an oil boiler. I find it quite noisy, but I'm assuming it works for them. They also have PV panels so combining those with the heat pump presumably improves the economics of both. There are also some new bespoke houses going up near me which will have heat pumps, underfloor heating, forced air ventilation with heat recovery etc. This works well when designed in at the beginning, not sure it works so well in am older house like mine (and I'm assuming yours) without expensive upgrading of the fabric of the house.

If we (as in the country) do move away from fossil fuels there should be long lead times and companies should have time to invest in the alternative technologies and I don't think we are going to be giving up plastics entirely anytime soon as they are too useful so the feedstocks are going to have to come from somewhere. So I think a number of our HYP companies are going to be around for a good few years yet (am I grasping at straws here trying to keep on topic for the HYP practical board ?)

[scotia]

So we all move to electric cars and electric heating and electric cooking, and no gas is to be consumed. Where does this magic electricity come from? Currently (as I write) grid watch reports (gridwatch.co.uk) about 56% of our electricity is produced by burning gas. Renewables (Wind, Solar, Hydro and Biomass) contribute about 15%. Nuclear is providing around 17%. Around 11% is arriving over interconnectors from abroad. Now we increase our electricity demand substantially, and get rid of all of those nasty gas burning power stations. So where does this extra magic electricity come from?

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Now we increase our electricity demand substantially, and get rid of all of those nasty gas burning power stations. So where does this extra magic electricity come from?

There are approximately 6.5 to 7.5m more people living in the UK than in 1970. We actually consume less energy now than then. Most of this energy reduction has come about by decreases in manufacturing. But our love of the car has negated all the positives. Yes our cars are more efficient. But there are simply more of them and we travel huge distances compared to those of 1970.

If I recall correctly in 2017/2018 we provided over 50% of our energy needs from wind or "wood/pellet" burning sources. Green sources. But that was only on certain days. The point being that we are reducing our reliance upon fossil fuels. But probably not as quickly as we need to.

There are two big issues which we aren't having great success with. One I've already mentioned. The car. The second is nuclear power. Many will balk at the thought of using nuclear power. And rightly so. However, there's a problem. It's highly likely that nuclear power is, in the short term, a necessary evil. In addition to our needs to reduce our carbon footprint we also need to continue with our divorce from oil produced in the Middle East which increases the probability that we will need to use nuclear power in the future.

The holy grail of energy is fusion power. Current estimates suggest that this technology is 50 years away. That's assuming it can be developed successfully.

The construction of new nuclear power plants has stalled. Mainly due to the initial outlay costs. Future successive governments will come under increasing pressure to find a commercial solution.

Much as I love my car and the pit stop technology that is fuel and go I suspect that towards the end of my tenancy on this planet that electric cars will be more the norm than the exception.

We are currently on course to fail our commitments to reduce our carbon footprint. If I recall correctly we are committed to keeping our carbon output at those produced in 1990. We cannot afford to leave this legacy to our children. We can't solve all our energy problems overnight. But we can set in motion a legacy that our children and grandchildren will prosper from. I am not convinced we can do this without nuclear power though.

AiY

[AsleepInYorkshire]

https://www.dezeen.com/2018/01/08/wind- ... s-uk-news/

[scotia]

Have a look at gridwatch.co.uk, and look back over the winter on days when there was very little wind, and consequently very little wind power. A winter high over the UK can produce very cold weather and very little wind over a very large area. Wind power is not a solution if you want to guarantee supply. Is it possible to store it? We use pumped (hydro) storage with Nuclear, so that the Nuclear can run at a constant output, and the pumped storage accepts the surplus during the night and generates at the peak demand during the day - an ideal combination of reliable supply when we want it. But storage of Wind Power requires a much larger storage capacity, and a much larger water source, since there are comparatively long periods of no-wind. SSE looked at two schemes in the Great Glen (which holds Loch Ness) some years ago. This involved large amounts of civil engineering (Dams) and significant alterations to the landscape. It would also generate the power distant from the centres of demand - so would also require large transmission lines, which also significantly affect the landscape. In 2013 SSE were granted planning permission for a scheme using Loch Lochy in the Great Glen as the water source, but did not continue. More recently (2017) they have submitted a request for a revised scheme. Also, some years ago they proposed to carry out a much smaller pumped scheme on Loch Lomond at Sloy Hydro Station, but did not proceed with it.

[richlist]

We have an air sourced heat pump fitted in our property in Spain.......it's called an Inverter Air Conditioning Unit out there. It can provide cool air in the summer in air con mode and heat in the winter. In fact it's a magical piece of kit. In winter when it can be around 2 or 3 degrees outside in late evening it can heat the property to 20 degrees + very quickly.

Apparently very cheap to run compared to other equipment, quite cheap to buy/ install and looks very smart.

Highly recommended.

[scotia]

I should probably have added that this new proposed pumped storage in the Great Glen will have a storage capacity of 30 Gigawatt Hours. I.E. less than one hour's Electricity Power supply for the whole of the UK. I think this emphasises the problem of storing Wind Power from huge Wind Farms. As of 2017 (according to Wiki) the largest installed battery storage system has a capacity of 300 Megawatt hours - i.e. 1% of the size of the proposed Great Glen pumped storage. Ireland is looking at Battery/Flywheel storage, but again these schemes are much smaller than pumped storage.
Anybody got any other bright ideas as how to store Wind Power?

[UncleEbenezer]

The UK has tides to provide us with a superb base energy source that doesn't rely on the weather. Intermittent sources like wind and solar should be supplementing that, not acting as a baseline.

Just a shame our government isn't prepared to support it as it has other energy sources to help them through their early stages. Including in recent times wind and solar, with the most outrageously humungous subsidies (FITs) for homeowners.

[scotia]

The UK has tides to provide us with a superb base energy source that doesn't rely on the weather. Intermittent sources like wind and solar should be supplementing that, not acting as a baseline.
Just a shame our government isn't prepared to support it as it has other energy sources to help them through their early stages. Including in recent times wind and solar, with the most outrageously humungous subsidies (FITs) for homeowners.

I agree - tidal power is theoretically very attractive - entirely predictable, and varying around the coastline to provide an almost constant base load supply. So why is it not currently deployed in a large scale? The Maygen tidal power station in the Pentland Firth has claimed a world record for tidal generation - having produced 750 Megawatt hours in August 2017. In contrast one of our current AGR Nuclear Power Stations would have produced about 1000 times this (750 Gigawatt hours ) in the same period. I am aware that this is only the start of the Maygen Project, but its "world record" is an indication that tidal power is in its infancy. I'm currently looking at a painting on my wall of the island of Stroma , looking over the stretch of water used by the Maygen project. This stretch joins up two sections of coastline (the North with the East) which have substantially different tide times, so is subject to very strong tidal streams - an ideal source for tidal power. I look forward to this development, but I think major deployment of tidal power is a long way off, and its cost and reliability have yet to be determined.

[UncleEbenezer]

I agree - tidal power is theoretically very attractive - entirely predictable, and varying around the coastline to provide an almost constant base load supply. So why is it not currently deployed in a large scale?

Because those countries that have invested seriously in renewables and brought the technologies for wind and solar to maturity have comparatively little tidal potential, so noone in the mainstream has been investing.

Britain's geography is pretty-much unique amongst large economies in its tidal potential. This should be our biggest R&D contribution to the world's energy since we pioneered coal - back in the days when we invested for the (then) future.

[tjh290633]

The Bristol Channel and the Bay of Fundy have a lot in common. One problem is that barrages and tidal lagoons tend to destroy the phenomenon that you are trying to harness.

TJH

[bionichamster]

There is a lot of politics and ideology that interferes with reasoned progress in planning our long-term energy production. The anti-nuclear groups, the climate change groups, the climate change denial groups, the anti-wind farm groups and just general nimbyism and vested interests. All of these conflicting and contradictory arguments and their associated pressure groups and lobbyists seem to make it a minefield for politicians to commit to anything like a coherent plan.

Most energy production methods have both pros and cons. My own view is we should be looking for a mix of energy sources and not be too reliant on one method. We should seek to exploit those “free” resources we have such as wind, water, tidal and wave, where we can make them cost effective (and bearing in mind that there are costs involved in other fuels that don’t always appear to be factored into the quoted unit costs, such as spending billions on security and wars in unstable oil rich parts of the world to maintain supplies and price stability. Then there's the risk of being dependent on international markets influenced by others for the price of many commodities)

Unfortunately a lot of ‘renewables’ are intermittent and sometimes unpredictable. However a plus point is once that they are operational they aren’t subject to market price fluctuations on their fuel or geopolitical influence on that price, unlike the fossil fuels.

I think there is a major role for renewables but we will still require a solid base of reliable production and a quick start-up that can kick in when one or more of the renewables fails to deliver. Development of effective storage has to be the key to increased renewable reliance. Pumped storage is one solution but we are sorely limited by the number of geographically suitable sites (i.e. a large water body low down and another that can be created high up on a suitable site), that might be expanded slightly with seawater based systems but realistically the options may not increase by that much. There is battery storage, that may operate better at a local or even domestic level for soothing supply (I.e. electric cars and domestic battery systems), flywheels may be the same. There is the use of large ultra capacitor systems too particularly in industry. On a larger scale again there are options for mechanical storage such as potential energy (see the use of heavy weights on rails on hillsides as one example using the same principle as pumped storage). Compressed air in underground caverns and gasometer type constructions is a further possibility. How much effect all of those will have is anyones guess, but I doubt they’ll ever allow us to reliably power ourselves 100% with renewables in any form that resembles our current lifestyles. It also makes renewables more expensive than they first appear.

There may is a case for ensuring that any houses forced by legislation not built with gas have alternatives fitted, those might include solar hot water panels, PV panels, geothermal, shared heat and power, air or ground heat pumps, local wind and perhaps domestic or local storage systems for power. Obviously some of those systems are much more limited in potential than others. Also critical is that the quality of insulation and heat recycling within newbuilds is substantially improved so that heat demands are less. Government needs to make sure this happens and that it is done in a sensible meaningful way and not as a box ticking exercise by private house builders trying to do the bare minimum with the cheapest least effective systems.

As for the big producers, gas seems to have an important role in ironing out fluctuations in supply caused by renewable variation and nuclear in providing a substantial base load, we really need to commit to more nuclear and get on with it. Whether there is a role for oil or even coal is debatable, there might be, especially if anyone ever figures out how to trap emissions in a cost effective manner (personally I doubt this will come to pass), even so, security of supply may be important in the future as well as emissions, so even having some mothballed fossil fuel plant that could be brought back into service could be sensible, if for example a nuclear plant suffers a problem that requires a long shut down of many months or longer.

BH

[tramrider]

Anybody got any other bright ideas as how to store Wind Power?
...
I should probably have added that this new proposed pumped storage in the Great Glen will have a storage capacity of 30 Gigawatt Hours. I.E. less than one hour's Electricity Power supply for the whole of the UK. I think this emphasises the problem of storing Wind Power from huge Wind Farms.

As bionichamster has said in a later message, one probable answer is the domestic battery. This can be in the form of a house battery or an electric car battery, which is plugged in when not being driven. There is enough computer power and smart meter communications to allow them to be charged under National Grid instructions when there is spare electricity and discharged when there is not enough. The charging would be done at 'white meter' prices and the discharging would replace expensive peak price electricity. This has the additional benefit of needing less peak generators and less peak flow through the national grid wires.

One million car batteries at 30kWh each makes a total of 30 GWh, equivalent of the Great Glen project and each very close to the point of use.

It needs the government to alter building regulations to require an intelligent connected house battery to be installed in all new-build houses. I had a 6.5kWh house battery installed in October and it is working well. Now I find I would like a bigger one!

[scotia]

I had a 6.5kWh house battery installed in October and it is working well. Now I find I would like a bigger one!

Thanks for the response. Your distributed battery storage proposal is certainly interesting. I know that costs would reduce significantly if it were to be deployed on a large scale, but just out of interest, in your experience, what is the capital cost at the moment (I'm guessing at around £1000 for 6.5kWh), and how often would the battery require to be replaced (I'm guessing about 5 years)? Your house battery storage capacity is relatively small compared to an electric car battery (e.g. Nissan Leaf is about 30kWh), so I would imagine that it is small enough to fit inside a house cupboard - but does it need to be sited in a vented space, separate from the house dwellers?

[odysseus2000]

One finds various estimates for storage costs, but a consensus that Tesla have achieved $100 /kWh at the cell level is not being too hotly disputed, some believe that it will soon be possible to produce current lithium ion batteries below that and there are several emerging technologies suggesting that the drying phase in the battery production cycle can be removed. Maxwell who Tesla are buying, subject to investor lawsuits, claims to have a solvent free battery making process and there are several competing technologies.

Forbes estimate that battery storage market will be over $600 billion:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/ ... 61c6584684

Tesla last conference call said they expected energy storage to grow faster than battery electric.

It is always dangerous to look ahead and predict, but as I look at the way things are going I currently expect more wind power, more solar and a lot more storage with gas stations kept around for conditions when there is neither wind or solar and storage is low. Gas stations although being a co2 emitter are fast to turn on, relatively low cost and do not have the huge decommissioning and operating hazards of nuclear.

As things now stand I expect the UK to be mere buyers of the technology as is the case with wind, a lot going to overseas makers such as Siemens.

The generators seem to have convinced the regulators that they can pay for it by ratcheting up every ones power bill, all mine have recently gone up by noticeable amounts. It would be nice if the regulator was to force the utilities to keep prices fixed and borrow the money, but … However, the danger as I see it to the legacy power providers is that politicians open up the markets to the wealthy mass market leaders who have developed technology to make them 100% renewable and have the technology and contacts to expand into power generation. E.g. one could imagine Amazon and/or Google and/or Apple …adding to the renewable market with their own solutions.

If the various suggestions of moratoriums on new build domestic gas happen the market for heat pumps, as discussed, should be substantial. I haven't studied this market but I expect much of the kit will be imported. Heat pumps which have efficiencies well over 100% because they take heat from one place and put it else where without needing to make the heat are imho a very exciting technology. A neighbour just installed two units which he likes, both made in Japan.

The minimal UK winners from this massive secular trend is very disappointing but it is what it is at least as far as I can tell.

Regards,

[tramrider]

I had a 6.5kWh house battery installed in October and it is working well. Now I find I would like a bigger one!

Thanks for the response. Your distributed battery storage proposal is certainly interesting. I know that costs would reduce significantly if it were to be deployed on a large scale, but just out of interest, in your experience, what is the capital cost at the moment (I'm guessing at around £1000 for 6.5kWh), and how often would the battery require to be replaced (I'm guessing about 5 years)? Your house battery storage capacity is relatively small compared to an electric car battery (e.g. Nissan Leaf is about 30kWh), so I would imagine that it is small enough to fit inside a house cupboard - but does it need to be sited in a vented space, separate from the house dwellers?

Hi, Scotia.
The battery was the LG Chem Resu6.5, costing about £4000 for 6.5kWh which is quite expensive (cheaper offers are available). It seems to have some intelligence to protect it and data communication back to the inverter. The inverter only takes it down to about 17% before stopping the discharge. Dimensions are W=452 x H=654 x D=120 mm, so quite small but 52kg weight so it needs to be floor mounted against a solid wall.
http://www.lgchem.com/global/ess/ess/product-detail-PDEC0001

The battery is lithium ion, so is fairly well sealed but it is in a finned heat-sink metal box. However, the inverter is about 5% inefficient on each energy conversion and at over 3kW peak that means 150W of heat dissipated, so that needs a vented space. Ours is in a vented meter cupboard in the back porch of the house, helping to keep it warm in winter! They claim that the battery "technology provides durability ensuring 80% of capacity retention after 10 years". I am hoping the battery will last about 10 years and then the next one will be much more powerful and/or cheaper.

I hope that helps.

Tramrider