US & world macro economy

[dspp]

US long run charts, courtesy John Kemp at Reuters
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... RMANCE.pdf

[dspp]

Very typical of the indicators he is reporting on at present
======
By John Kemp
LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - U.S. consumption of diesel and other middle distillate fuels is decelerating in line with the wider slowdown in manufacturing and construction activity.

Consumption of distillate fuel oil was up by 3% in the three months from February to April compared with the same period a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Consumption growth has fallen from more than 5% year-on-year in the three months from August to October and the trend is slowing despite short-term volatility (“Petroleum Supply Monthly”, EIA, June 28).

[dspp]

courtesy John Kemp, Reuters

By John Kemp
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Global manufacturing and construction sectors have already entered a downturn; the service sector is all that now stands between the economy and a full-blown recession.

Global manufacturers reported new export orders fell for a 10th month running in June, with the most widespread decline for six years, according to the JPMorgan global purchasing managers survey.

Even in the United States, which has escaped relatively mildly so far from the downturn hitting Europe and Asia, there are now clear signs growth has stalled across the manufacturing and construction industries.

etc

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... 202019.pdf

[djbenedict]

Some interesting data there, thanks. When I look at it, I think, "hmm, noisy, hard to make forward predictions with any conviction" rather than seeing "clear signs".

[SalvorHardin]

One of the best leading indicators for the American economy is the railroads. I pay particular attention to both American and Canadian railroads, not just because they're the biggest sector in my portfolio. If the economy is doing well, this is reflected in their sales, but when their sales start to fall this is a very strong indicator that the economy is looking at falling growth or even a recession.

Yesterday the east coast's CSX turned in a fairly poor set of results for 2019Q2, dragging down the sector, though CSX is the class 1 railroad most heavily exposed to coal so you'd expect to see big falls in coal transport. But on the same day Canadian Pacific posted record results (yes, it's Canada but they do quite a bit of business in America).

More significantly for America about 40 minutes ago Union Pacific (west of the Mississippi) posted record profits. UP's sales were down by 1.3% on 2018Q2, but that isn't a serious economic indicator as severe flooding in the midwest during the quarter reduced the amount of freight that could be carried.

https://www.up.com/media/releases/190718-2q-earnings.htm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-union-pacific-results/union-pacific-revenue-falls-1-3-hit-by-lower-freight-volumes-idUSKCN1UD1RC

IMHO far too much of the reporting on the American economy is skewed by the reporters' opinion of the current state of American politics. If their party isn't in power, their reporting is downbeat. It's much easier to make money if you look at the figures.

[dspp]

courtesy John Kemp REuters

I strongly believe in an empirical approach to the economy and markets, so the attached chartbook contains a compendium of all the indicators I use to track the global economic cycle and oil consumption - covering trade, freight, manufacturing output, financial markets and commodity prices : chartbook link = https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... CATORS.pdf

LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The global economy is probably in recession, with most cyclical indicators showing business activity is flat or falling. Recessions become obvious only once they are well established given the lagging nature of most economic data. And end-of-cycle recessions are usually impossible to distinguish from mid-cycle slowdowns until well after the slowdown has started. ......By most measures, the global economy is in the midst of the deepest slowdown since 2015, and in many cases since 2009.

[edit : article link = https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-glob ... KKCN1UX1OF ]

!!!!! - dspp

[redsturgeon]

I'm not sure I find this surprising. With the US and China in the grip of a trade war, with the EU/UK Brexit clouds, with India and Pakistan at loggerheads and the Iran situation in the Straits of Hormuz, longer term the whole climate change agenda and the ending of the US hegemony generally, looks like dark clouds circling at a time when it is a decade since the last recession.

John

[redsturgeon]

There's always something going on to worry about though.

I'd agree with that but there seems to be an awful lot of it about at the moment.

What seem to be in short supply at the moment is anything on the plus side for world markets.

John

[redsturgeon]

What seem to be in short supply at the moment is anything on the plus side for world markets.


Tons of cheap cash looking for a home.

That's about it...and a lot of it is finding its way into gold at the moment.

John

[djbenedict]

That's about it...and a lot of it is finding its way into gold at the moment.

Gold is like Bitcoin though. There's no real reason as to why it should have any value other than it's perceived 'safe haven' status.

Gold does have more of an established ability to store value over time, though, you must admit (Bitcoin having been invented only 10 years ago).

[dspp]

US freight indicators

https://www.bts.gov/topics/freight-tran ... sportation