Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

Trump honey moon over?

The Big Picture Place
DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2624
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 1912 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19252

Postby DiamondEcho » January 1st, 2017, 5:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:This makes me a little more bullish for the Santa rally to arrive.


https://www.ig.com/uk/santa-rally
https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-opportuni ... ion--35686

According to research from IG, the [potential for a] rally kicks off between 14-16 Dec.

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19335

Postby odysseus2000 » January 1st, 2017, 11:16 pm

https://www.ig.com/uk/santa-rally
https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-opportuni ... ion--35686

According to research from IG, the [potential for a] rally kicks off between 14-16 Dec.

The timing of the Santa rally varies a little, but usually in my experience it starts after Christmas if it comes.

It never came in 2016.

A question now is whether the late December selling seen in the US continues into 2017 and if so whether it spreads out to European & Eastern markets

Regards,

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2624
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 1912 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19425

Postby DiamondEcho » January 2nd, 2017, 12:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The timing of the Santa rally varies a little, but usually in my experience it starts after Christmas if it comes.
It never came in 2016. A question now is whether the late December selling seen in the US continues into 2017 and if so whether it spreads out to European & Eastern markets


'Interestingly there is no agreement about when the Santa rally really starts, with sources offering conflicting answers; is it the whole of December, the week running up to Christmas, or any time period outside this? At IG, we decided to perform our own analysis, running the numbers over every December time period combination (all 465 of them) over the past 30 years.
The results are interesting. We found the best time period to invest has been 15-31 December, with an average annual return of 2.53%, and a positive return 87% of the time. Showing that December 15 is not a complete anomaly, 14-31 December (+2.42%) and 16-31 December (+2.50%) were also in the top ten.'

https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-opportuni ... ion--35686

I'm not sure if you read what I previously linked, but the above is the core of what I was referring to.

They also note that one of the causes of the Santa Rally is the January Effect.
'Bargain hunting before stock prices rise in January (known as the January effect)'

The overlap between any Santa Rally and January Effect is variable. But I'd expect it to perhaps be magnified if you trade US markets, which of course work to a calendar financial/reporting/tax year.

ps. IMO the late-Dec selling in US markets was profit-taking, combined with off-risking prior to the protracted holiday period. If you net all the opinions re: the outlook for US markets as Jan gets under way it feels bullish to me.

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19543

Postby odysseus2000 » January 2nd, 2017, 6:09 pm

I'm not sure if you read what I previously linked, but the above is the core of what I was referring to.

They also note that one of the causes of the Santa Rally is the January Effect.
'Bargain hunting before stock prices rise in January (known as the January effect)'

The overlap between any Santa Rally and January Effect is variable. But I'd expect it to perhaps be magnified if you trade US markets, which of course work to a calendar financial/reporting/tax year.

ps. IMO the late-Dec selling in US markets was profit-taking, combined with off-risking prior to the protracted holiday period. If you net all the opinions re: the outlook for US markets as Jan gets under way it feels bullish to me.


Yes, I understand what IG are saying and to give weight to their opinion they say they have researched the subject and come up with the best time to invest.

But it is all about opinion based on some criterion they have chosen and some subset of stocks they deem worthy. Sure you can invest based on averages & such, but don't expect to do well. Each year is different, each investor has his or her predujices which have to fit in with what is happening at a given time, not what is average behaviour which doesn't happen, one gets ups and downs which are then averaged to create something that never happened.

Despite all these averages and IG telling you the best time to invest, there was no Santa Rally in 2016.

The predominant bullish predictions of the future also don't fill me with confidence that they will happen. We had similar consensus after Brexit & the Trump win, in those cases many folk saying the markets would tank. Those consensus also didn't play out.

Regards,

mikel2
Posts: 33
Joined: December 29th, 2016, 12:56 pm

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19692

Postby mikel2 » January 3rd, 2017, 12:16 pm

Every year for the last 20/30years I have bought and enjoyed reading the Economist's annual publication look see into to the future world ahead which gives the world economy in figures and it is usually loaded with interesting articles trying to make sense of the future world together with predictions for the coming 12 months ahead. This year is no exception and “The World in 2017”again this year is packed with speculation and interesting predictions and I suppose again this year will be no exception in that most of them will probably be wrong.

Perhaps unsurprisingsly no less than seven of the leading articles fanfare Donald Trump's arrival on the political scene often accompanied with tales of doom for the global economy should his aspirations be fulfilled and I have to say I don't share these bleak views but it is easy to see just why Trumps controversal views of global economics could unerve some people.

The views expressed range from the fate of the Paris agreement to the ushering in of a new darker global order with little space given to the positive effectsTrump could have on the US and indeed the global economy.

Great credit must be handed to the edior Danial Franklin for pointing out in an article with the title “Uncovered” later in the magazine that last years predictions in “The world in 2016” “underestimated the force of the rebelious tide in poitics” and with hindsight missed the two new big players in the form of Teresa May and Donald Trump.

Watamistakatomaka, I suppose that is one of the dangers of making predictions but having said that and bearing in mind the rebelious tide in politics is never without cause I will predict that Maria Le Penn will be successful in her presidential campagn which will probaby do wonders for Europe and go along wa to making the Trump presidency look lke a pretty tame mariage.


Happy new year with lots of love and kisses to all

dspp
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2442
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 1495 times
Been thanked: 452 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19724

Postby dspp » January 3rd, 2017, 2:44 pm

I hope I am wrong, but I too think Marine Le Pen could well be a second round win.

Similarly I hoped I was wrong re Brexit and Trump. Unfortunately I was not.

regards, dspp

mikel2
Posts: 33
Joined: December 29th, 2016, 12:56 pm

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19825

Postby mikel2 » January 3rd, 2017, 10:01 pm

>>>>I hope I am wrong, but I too think Marine Le Pen could well be a second round win.

Similarly I hoped I was wrong re Brexit and Trump. Unfortunately I was not.<<<<



Well we do share some similar thoughts but I did bet on a brexit and a Trump win and came out quite well on both counts and I have also started placing some small amounts on a Le Penn win which I hope will also come up trumps.

No pun intended and other than my bet I really have no real interest in her overall success but just feel that the political dynamics of yesterday have now long since expired and we are now in a new kind of paradyne where the old political values have been superseded throwing old party loyalties into a state of confusion. Our very own labour party shows some evidence of this confusion and phenomena of mixed and misguide loyalty as does the US GOP party.

Overall think a great many people in the Western world feel with some justification as if they have been short changed and are still being lead up the garden path by an establishment that seem quite impervious to their overall dilemma's.

I do not see any reason why the population of Europe should feel any different since in the main they have been at the sharp end of events.
For Le Pen It is quite possible that her day may have come.

It is a just a chance and maybe a long shot but there certainly is a wind of change which should throw up other financal opportunities.

We can only wait and see.

Regards

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#19841

Postby odysseus2000 » January 4th, 2017, 12:22 am

It is kind of ironic and perhaps a contrarian top caller, but ever since Merkel was named as Time's 2015 woman of the Year, for her stewardship of a United Germany & as the most powerful woman in the world, the whole eddifice that she controls has begun to show some serious fault lines.

If Le Pen wins or gets a lot of support, the analogues of Le Pen's style will be embolden throughout the nations of Western Europe & perhaps further off too.

What then of many things, what of the agreements that the UK could use a French Aircraft carrier if needed? What of the French involvement in the nuke at Hinckley Point? What of the Gas & electrical interconnectors? An unstable France, run as needed by the politicians to suit French needs may not be so cooperative or maybe it will be more cooperative. One imagines that Boris is rather troubled by all of these potential foreign uncertainties.

Perhaps more interesting is how will the folk who voted for Brexit & for Trump behave if they don't like the way things develop, not forgetting those who voted Bremain or for Clinton & their reaction.

If equity markets start to focus on the coming potential political uncertainties it will be hard, at least for me, to see them advance substantially from here, but of course they may focus on entirely different things.

I currently can't see a good reason for holding equities until there is some change in the price action, today the S&P put in a lower high, oil bearishly engulfed several days and the cheer leading talking heads mostly seem very bullish. Hmmm...

Regards,

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2624
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 1912 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#20074

Postby DiamondEcho » January 4th, 2017, 7:47 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I currently can't see a good reason for holding equities until there is some change in the price action, today the S&P put in a lower high, oil bearishly engulfed several days and the cheer leading talking heads mostly seem very bullish. Hmmm... Regards,


S+P hit a record high this pm, [FTSE too].
Brave view of yours to call the turn of the cycle upon a single day :)

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#20161

Postby odysseus2000 » January 4th, 2017, 10:27 pm

S+P hit a record high this pm, [FTSE too].
Brave view of yours to call the turn of the cycle upon a single day


Ha, Ha, Yes, brave and wrong!

Markets have ignored the sell off in the last 3 days of 2016.

Maybe Dow 20,000 tomorrow. Will that then cause a sell off, or are the markets going straight up?

A little vexed by the action, but don't feel like chasing now, so if it goes up a lot more I can sit and cry!

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2624
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 1912 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#20776

Postby DiamondEcho » January 6th, 2017, 6:36 pm

odysseus2000 wrote: Maybe Dow 20,000 tomorrow. Will that then cause a sell off, or are the markets going straight up?


I think barring external major events getting in the way, getting through 20k would be 3/4 of the battle done. Also nice to get a bit of tidy margin above to demonstrate 'conviction', maybe 20,050?
Same with the FTSE-100 today, finally got 7k+ @7210.05. That's nice, but I'd be more relaxed it'll hold if that had been say 7220/+.

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#20823

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2017, 12:54 am

I think barring external major events getting in the way, getting through 20k would be 3/4 of the battle done. Also nice to get a bit of tidy margin above to demonstrate 'conviction', maybe 20,050?
Same with the FTSE-100 today, finally got 7k+ @7210.05. That's nice, but I'd be more relaxed it'll hold if that had been say 7220/+.


Just a whisker off 20k on the Dow today and enough depth of strength on stuff I have been watching to have me get long several stocks reversing my views of the last few market days. No point being stubborn, if the market doesn't confirm to what you expect, you have to change.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#28554

Postby odysseus2000 » February 2nd, 2017, 10:20 pm

Kind of looking like Dow 20k was a sell, not a hold or buy.

We now have island top patterns in most of the US index. These may get reclaimed but the mood music seems to have changed, especially after the relatively poor reception of Amazon's earnings tonight.

We are also seeing more unpopular/(troubling to status quo stuff) coming out of the Whitehouse that is causing a lot of media noise that is also potentially upsetting to investors especially given the size of the run since Trump was elected.

I was premature in thinking the honey was over when I stated this thread and I could be wrong again, but it has more of that kind of feel to me now.

Interested in what others think.

Regards,

mikel2
Posts: 33
Joined: December 29th, 2016, 12:56 pm

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#28694

Postby mikel2 » February 3rd, 2017, 12:00 pm

<<<<<<<We are also seeing more unpopular/(troubling to status quo stuff) coming out of the Whitehouse that is causing a lot of media noise that is also potentially upsetting to investors especially given the size of the run since Trump was elected.

I was premature in thinking the honey was over when I stated this thread and I could be wrong again, but it has more of that kind of feel to me now.<<<<<<
_____________________________________
Moderator Message:
it would help if you use the facility to give quotes, rather than your DIY method, which does not tell the reader who you are quoting. The " button at the top of a post will do that for you quite simply, and you can use it for different posts in the same reply.
TJH


Good to see you still posting ody, things have gone a little quite and I am mildly surprised at how little opinion is being put forward in the threads on this macro board since there seems to be so many eyeballing the posts but failing to make any comment and a diverse collection of views should and would be quite welcome.

My own view is that we are living in an age of disrupton on many levels and disruptors of all shapes and sizes are changing the face of almost every facet of our social and economic life.

Trump is an archetypal disruptor who will, again in my view, be institutional in attemting to mark a great change from the path we have been sleepwalking along and I think we are in the very early stages of what I expect will be great and on the whole a beneficial change.

I don't believe there will be any immediate universal sunny uplands aound the next corner, there is no such thing as plain sailing through periods of politcal or economic upheaval. Both here and in the US the magnitude of the change will be so large and wide ranging that the course of events will beimpossible to predict but Trump love him or hate him is one of the few people that looks likely to be able to implement those neccesary changes.

The shear size of this disruption together with impotance of much of the old, almost rdundant political idealogy is bound to have many repercussions and leave many people smarting almost dazed as they are being parted from much of their long held belief systems that go vey much to the core of present economic idealogy.

Apparantly acording to an article in The Times today Trump's presidency will not derail the global shift towards greener energy according to Shell who want to bein he vanguard of that transition.

We do live in very strange times and I have to say I do have a very different belief system but it is as you observed more eof an emotional stance as visions of the future must remain. The article is behind a pay wall but is well worh a read if you can get access to it.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/busin ... -k96kl3g7w


Time to put a bit more on a Marine Le penn I think.

Regards

youfoolishboy
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 207
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 17 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#28795

Postby youfoolishboy » February 3rd, 2017, 4:33 pm

mikel2 wrote:Time to put a bit more on a Marine Le penn I think.


Hope you got it on before the Louvre attack. I would say these attacks will increase as the French election comes closer as IS want radicals like her in power to fight back and make Muslims lives difficult so making more want to join the fight against the West. What odds is she?

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#28896

Postby odysseus2000 » February 3rd, 2017, 11:40 pm

So once again the US market proves to be far more robust than I expected, helped by today's non farm payroll numbers.

Instead of the feared island top, we now have an island bottom.

Rotation into the banks & some oils too, with some tech strength including Amazon which was only down circa 4% after what was seen as a miss, while Apple is holding higher.

Of course things can change, but it looks like the market wants to go higher.

Regards,

mikel2
Posts: 33
Joined: December 29th, 2016, 12:56 pm

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#29013

Postby mikel2 » February 4th, 2017, 7:05 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:Hope you got it on before the Louvre attack. I would say these attacks will increase as the French election comes closer as IS want radicals like her in power to fight back and make Muslims lives difficult so making more want to join the fight against the West. What odds is she?



I do not really know what to make of the odds on Marine Le Penn, I first put a bet on her to win last November at 2/1, a few days later another bet at 5/2, then on 22/12/16 at 11/4, today the odds on her to win have gone back to 5/2 probably reflecting her improved chances, but you will have to make of them what you will.

In view of the fact that our exit from the EU looks like an absolute certainty I don't see France wanting to hang in there with what many Frenchmen might regard as a failed enterprise and Le Penn is the person, who again just n my view, despite some of her unattractive political views could be just what many people in France have been waiting for.

Its not really an isolated view and in view of recent events both here and the US a very real possibility

“The EU is history” George Galloway says Marine Le Penn will destroy European Union”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/762702 ... pean-union


Regards

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#29030

Postby odysseus2000 » February 4th, 2017, 8:57 pm

youfoolishboy

Hope you got it on before the Louvre attack. I would say these attacks will increase as the French election comes closer as IS want radicals like her in power to fight back and make Muslims lives difficult so making more want to join the fight against the West. What odds is she?



What as struck me as interesting is the speed with which ISIS came into existence, almost as if it was created & funded by some government. The obvious candidate would be Tehran, but one might also wonder about Islamabad, Beijing & Moscow.

There has been a clear Western move to create the Arab Spring, a policy that has now reached at best a stalemate & so one might imagine that it would be in the interest of enemies to create a rival movement and if one could do this covertly whilst overtly fighting Isis the better it must be for an enemy.

A divided and fragmented Europe & isolationist US might not so easily defend the Ukraine & other States beyond.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 897
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 152 times
Been thanked: 112 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#29055

Postby odysseus2000 » February 5th, 2017, 1:13 am

Mikel2:
Apparantly acording to an article in The Times today Trump's presidency will not derail the global shift towards greener energy according to Shell who want to bein he vanguard of that transition.


Meant to comment on this earlier.

The reason for the shift to greener energy is economics, or in Hedge Fund speak: "Being a cost leader." With green energy the fuel cost is zero so that the costs of generation are the hardware, but green energy tends to peak when it is most needed, so you sell into peak energy prices, leading to very good margins.

All the major tech business: Apple, Amazon, Google, Msft... are all big green energy producers and one expects that this trend will extend and hurt the fossil fuel producers who have to pay for the fuel.

If you listen to the last Berkshire Hathaway meeting, the first one broadcast over the net, you will hear Buffett go to great lengths about the economics of green energy and his attempts to stop it in Arizona along with his comment on Nebraska not using it whereas there are huge server farms in the adjacent State, leading to very good returns for the State government.

Regards,

tjh290633
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2452
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 153 times
Been thanked: 746 times

Re: Trump honey moon over?

#29066

Postby tjh290633 » February 5th, 2017, 10:51 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The reason for the shift to greener energy is economics, or in Hedge Fund speak: "Being a cost leader." With green energy the fuel cost is zero so that the costs of generation are the hardware, but green energy tends to peak when it is most needed, so you sell into peak energy prices, leading to very good margins.


Don't ignore the cost of back-up energy for when the wind does not blow, or the sun does not shine.

If every one of those schemes had to provide its own backup energy, none would ever have gone ahead.

TJH


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests