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Trump honey moon over?

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TimR
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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54722

Postby TimR » May 18th, 2017, 3:08 pm

The investigation could last a few months and if Trump is impeached it could take a year .

I have not altered my current ETF Portfolio from the current 70 % Equity / 30 % (cash) equity allocation yet -

USA -- 42 % --- (VUSA + ISP6)
UK -- 13% --- (VUK + VMID)
Euro -- 20% --- (VERX)
Japan -- 8% --- (VJPN)
Asia Pacific -- 7% --- (VAPX)
EM -- 10% --- (VFEM)

Has anyone made any changes to their portfolio following the latest Trump debacle ?


TimR

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54729

Postby DiamondEcho » May 18th, 2017, 3:22 pm

Surely you can't compare this to Watergate; for a start what is it that is alleged that Trump has done that could be grounds to oust him? Initially this seemed to centre around 'revealing sources with intel on ISIS to the Russians'. That suggestion died down when it was realised that US intel wouldn't even reveal such granular detail to the President themselves. That then morphed into something akin to 'revealing intel to Russia (as a popular/convenient bogeyman)' whereas he has to get Russia on board as an ally, and as President he is entitled to. So, what has he done that he's not entitled to?

cf: 'Impeachment Odds Approximately Zero: What’s the Real Reason for Today’s Decline?' [decline yesterday in Wall Street markets]
https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/17/impeach ... s-decline/

Summary: There aren't the numbers in the Senate to impeach him, not even close. The US markets had already priced in Trump's manifesto goodies but with Trump currently embroiled in this rolling fiasco caused by the 'DC machine' those awaited policy changes aren't going to come about any time soon. So the 'rise on the rumour' that followed his election is being sold off, while everyone 'waits and sees'.

see also: https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/17/special ... l-mission/

And from my perspective it appears to be a case of the Dems couldn't win at the ballot box, so now they're trying to use what elements of the DC/establishment machine they can control against him as an outsider, and meanwhile to hell with government and the economy.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54730

Postby DiamondEcho » May 18th, 2017, 3:26 pm

TimR wrote:Has anyone made any changes to their portfolio following the latest Trump debacle ? TimR


No I haven't, but clearly the climate is currently veering to risk-off which is why the markets are wilting.
I'm no fan of Trump but I wouldn't call this a 'Trump debacle', in that he doesn't appear to have done anything wrong. It seems to me to be created by Trump's opponents in an attempt to oust him.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54767

Postby odysseus2000 » May 18th, 2017, 5:01 pm

DiamondEcho
I'm no fan of Trump but I wouldn't call this a 'Trump debacle', in that he doesn't appear to have done anything wrong. It seems to me to be created by Trump's opponents in an attempt to oust him.


Yes, and they know more folk voted for Hillary, than him, so lots of potential political capital if they find a way to bring him down. But at the same time if they hurt equities & the economy & then can't nail him, they could get hit with a powerful counter movement. Rather a dangerous game to play.

Personally I took profits at the US open yesterday, expecting I could buy things back at lower prices. So far I have done nothing as price discovery has to happen to give some levels to trade against & for now it is too emotional.

Regards,

jdlemon
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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54782

Postby jdlemon » May 18th, 2017, 6:24 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:Surely you can't compare this to Watergate; for a start what is it that is alleged that Trump has done that could be grounds to oust him?


Well, we seem to have a senior US Republican politician John McCain who's done exactly that.

As in Watergate it's probably not the specific act that's the problem - it's the cover-up.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54832

Postby DiamondEcho » May 19th, 2017, 3:16 am

jdlemon wrote:As in Watergate it's probably not the specific act that's the problem - it's the cover-up.


You don't and can't mention what he has done wrong. Full stop. And suggest this is like Watergate. It's not. In Watergate, something happened.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54889

Postby DiamondEcho » May 19th, 2017, 10:46 am

The airline laptop ban was initiated and explained in March. What is the suggestion - the Russians still don't know why this happened? Or, no no they don't know, we don't know, it's Top Secret? :lol:

...'Finally, the recent bruhaha regarding Trump was that he shared “Top Secret” information with Russia. That alleged “Top Secret” information was in regards to ISIS having plans to use laptop bombs on airplanes. Russia likely knew everything Trump stated.
As long as Trump did not disclose sources, we should all be thankful Trump shared this information with Russia. Instead, we see a media witch hunt and increased calls for impeachment

https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/18/total-a ... more-45897

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54921

Postby GoSeigen » May 19th, 2017, 12:07 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
...'Finally, the recent bruhaha regarding Trump was that he shared “Top Secret” information with Russia. That alleged “Top Secret” information was in regards to ISIS having plans to use laptop bombs on airplanes. Russia likely knew everything Trump stated.
As long as Trump did not disclose sources, we should all be thankful Trump shared this information with Russia. Instead, we see a media witch hunt and increased calls for impeachment

https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/18/total-a ... more-45897


Wee DiamondEcho, you seem very well informed here. Please tell us:
1. what exactly Trump "stated" in that meeting?
2. whether or not Trump disclosed sources?
3. whether the linked article is rambling opinion with an information content of zero?

GS

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#54976

Postby DiamondEcho » May 19th, 2017, 3:10 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Wee DiamondEcho
GS


You wouldn't say that to my face as I'm far from 'wee' anything :lol:
The blogger I quoted runs his own hedge fund and is exceptionally well connected both in the US and internationally. Read his posts and let us know what you have grounds to disagree with.
Even Diane Feinstein, a nemesis of Trump's, confirms there is no evidence against Trump, just 'rumours'. I expect you know the value of mere rumours within evidence.
I shan't link a site to show you that there is no evidence since I expect you'll suggest the source is biased. So, Google on 'Trump Feinstein Russia no evidence' for yourself. Have a quick skim through the 1,840,000 hits and let us know what you find eh?

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#55065

Postby PeterGray » May 20th, 2017, 10:10 am

DE - the whole point of appointing a special prosecutor is to see if there is any evidence. If anyone could state now exactly what he had or hadn't done wrong and what the evidence was then the situation would be very different. You seem to be take the position that Donald himself is reputed to have taken with Comey - of wanting to shut down any investigation before anyone know what the answers were. I'd rather wait and see.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#55120

Postby GoSeigen » May 20th, 2017, 3:46 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Wee DiamondEcho
GS


You wouldn't say that to my face as I'm far from 'wee' anything :lol:

Sorry DiamondEcho, I wouldn't say that on an internet forum either in normal circumstances, but posted on the fly while travelling so victim of autocorrect -- should be Well, not Wee!! Same cause for the curtness ot tone having reread the post.

As for Trump, anyone can speculate based on what they wish he might have said, but like PeterGrey, I prefer to wait till I know what was actually said -- and until then rely on the known (reported) facts. The credentials of the author matter to me not one jot. I have a friend who is a very successful manager of a huge fund who I think is completely wrong in his assessment of the market -- and whose fund has thus been underperforming. Being wealthy and famous does not make you right or even reliable. I've come across many who apply the same fallacy to Trump himself: 'He's a successful businessmen so is bound to be an excellent person to set US economic policy.' Appealing argument but poor logic IMO.


GS


GS

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#55129

Postby DiamondEcho » May 20th, 2017, 4:23 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Sorry DiamondEcho, I wouldn't say that on an internet forum either in normal circumstances, but posted on the fly while travelling so victim of autocorrect -- should be Well, not Wee!! Same cause for the curtness ot tone having reread the post.


Hahaha, thanks for the genuine lol, it happens/no offence taken etc :lol:

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#57576

Postby odysseus2000 » June 3rd, 2017, 5:44 pm

Trump's withdrawal from the Paris accord has upset a lot of folk & they have been complaining all over the media.

Listening to his speech it seemed all about re-election & nothing much about the environment. He was relentless in saying how this withdrawal was for the American worker, the same folk who elected them.

He did quote some ridiculous statements about how the Paris accord was anyhow a negligible contribution to reducing global warming, but given the uncertainties in the data one can easily obtain a wide range of potential outcomes.

Coal stocks that had rallied a bit into the speech sold off & one imagines that if he carries forward with his rhetoric that energy prices will come down.

However, the biggest winner looks to be the US economy which now sees the potential of the removal of legislation mandating all kinds of checks & limits on manufacturing. If this overhead reduction happens one expects the US to boom & the US market index did move strongly upwards afterwards.

As things stand, unless some particularly destructive testimony comes out of the exFBI mouth, it seems at least to me that Trump's honey moon is far from over.

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#58331

Postby odysseus2000 » June 7th, 2017, 10:42 am

Jobs in solar v jobs in coal, interesting comparison in US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... 33d00f57fe

Hat tip to Fran Blanche (Twitter) for link.

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#58373

Postby coleyfish » June 7th, 2017, 1:09 pm

Donald Trump is an idiot. This is a pretty obvious statement of fact.

He inherited the upswing in business cycle and many people have attributed all of the surge in the US market to his election and "refreshing"* take on things, proposals on deregulation, tax and any number of things.

In fact Trump has made a lot of noise but achieved very little. His most important Executive Orders have been shot down. To date apparently the biggest achievements have been to alienate the rest of the World I relation to his plans to screw the environment in pursuit of cheap employment boosts.

I am hopeful that he will be drummed out of office in the short-term so we can look forward to not having to put up with the interminable bile his Tweets represent.

* "refreshing" in this context can be taken to mean ignorant, deluded, crass or any synonym thereof.

Coleyfish

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#58960

Postby odysseus2000 » June 9th, 2017, 2:45 pm

When Trump was elected I was of two minds: Was he a Hitler or a Reagan?

Looking at his term so far I dismiss Hitler completely and begin to believe that he will make the US stronger and more prosperous than Reagan did.

The testimony of the ex FBI chief was such a torture to watch that I can only fault Trump for not firing him sooner as he deserved based on his pre-election shenanigans with both candidates.

The US has re-emerged as a leading nation and looks set to advance substantially across a broad base of the economy and with Trump's focus on working class voters he is likely to get a second term.

US equities are screaming higher and to quote Reagan: "You ain't seen nothing yet!"

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#59040

Postby andyalan10 » June 9th, 2017, 7:54 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
US equities are screaming higher and to quote Reagan: "You ain't seen nothing yet!"

Regards,


May I be the first to congratulate you on calling the top on the NASDAQ?

Andy

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#59067

Postby odysseus2000 » June 9th, 2017, 10:41 pm

andyalan
May I be the first to congratulate you on calling the top on the NASDAQ?

Andy


Ha, Ha! You may be right.

I sold as the plunge started and then as it continued I scaled back in.

The sell off looked to me like computer trading causing a waterfall decline as stops got hit.

Could be completely wrong, so I may not be happy on Monday, but we shall see.

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#62641

Postby odysseus2000 » June 24th, 2017, 11:16 pm

Estimate of what revenue could be got from solar panels on the proposed Mexican wall:

https://youtu.be/AloQRY1ZOc0

Given the rate of fall of solar systems prices & the efficiency gains coming out of laboratories one has to be skeptical of analysis like this & there is no costing of potential employment gains and/or losses & subsequent revenues from having such an abundance of solar power from would be one of the biggest solar systems on the planet.

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75534

Postby odysseus2000 » August 18th, 2017, 6:49 pm

Interesting developments in the US following the murder of a protestor in Charlottesville.

Some commentators are calling this the moment that destroyed the Trump presidency and which marks the top of the equity market.

All of this began from the decision to rename a park and to remove a statue of Robert E Lee, Confederate general, which polarised opinions.

A Vice news documentary (strong language and some harrowing scenes) showed the views of some of the protestors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54sP0N ... verified=1

Following this there was a Trump press conference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix3764QIBIc

Kind of hard for me to see this as a defining moment either for Trump or for the equity markets. Sure markets sold off, but this is August when many folk are away and volume is lighter and sell offs are common.

The folk who hate Trump find lots of reasons to support their views, the folk who like him similarly.

It looks to me like a terrible tragedy for the woman killed and her family and friends, but the overtones of some commentators that this is the beginning of a race war seems to me to be far off reality.

Interested in any other views that suggest this is an important point and that things have now changed for the US economy and markets.

Regards,


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