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Trump honey moon over?

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Raptor
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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75553

Postby Raptor » August 18th, 2017, 7:55 pm

Not sure there was ever a marriage to be honest. I was never convinced and could not understand how the market expected anything else. However, until he is impeached or steps down we will have to see how it develops....

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75577

Postby PeterGray » August 18th, 2017, 8:47 pm

No, Ody, it's not the start of a race war, but it's the point at which Trump has potentially created a rift between himself and key Republicans, in Congress and the Senate, he needs if he is to get anything done - and possibly to protect him from impeachment if the ongoing investigations turn up anything actionable.

Plus I suspect that Ivanka and Kushner are far from happy at his struggle to categorically condemn the antisemitism on display in Charlottesville - and it wouldn't surprise me if that had something to do with Steve Bannon's sudden departure.

I wouldn't call it necessarily calling the top of equities, but I won't be surprised if we look back in a couple of years and it looks like the moment he really started losing any real control.

Of course his 25-30% of hard core voters will stick by him, but he may just have opened the critical crack up between him and the less committed Trump voters, and the mainstream Republican party (who have only ever put up with him because they had to) that may ultimately lead to him failing to get anything much done, losing control at the mid terms and being a one term (or possibily even less) president.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75590

Postby odysseus2000 » August 18th, 2017, 9:43 pm

As I listened to his press conference I heard him condemn the racists & label the driver of the car that killed the female protester as a murderer.

The issue which he seems to be concerned about is not the neo-Nazi he condemned, but the folk who want to remove historical symbols from the US. In this case it was Robert Lee, but there are several other examples where statues of folk that are no longer popular are being removed in a society, like the UK, were most folk have no knowledge of history. One side argues that things have changed, it is not air brushing the past, just removing icons that are no longer appropriate. The other side argues it is air brushing the past, more 1984 Orwellian than many of the folk who have likely never read anything of Orwell believe.

There are similar arguments in the UK, for example the folk who want to remove Nelson's column.

The documentary focused on the neo-Nazi with no discussion of the points of view of those who do not want to see history forgotten & who are potentially more concerned about the kkk because they know of its history than the folk who are focused on removing Lee's statue & know nothing of history.

It all looked like two opposing ideologies, each using this event to further their own ends & rabble rousing as many folk as possible who are easily lead & in the midst of this some one who seemed a good woman sadly became collateral damage.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75644

Postby PeterGray » August 19th, 2017, 10:13 am

It all looked like two opposing ideologies, each using this event to further their own ends & rabble rousing as many folk as possible who are easily lead & in the midst of this some one who seemed a good woman sadly became collateral damage.

What you or I think about it - and we clearly differ considerably - isn't really relevant to what you asked. And what I posted wasn't really my views of what happened, so much as the reaction to Trumps reaction.

A very large spread of US opinion does not see moral equivalence between neo-nazis, racists, people who want to keep statues to those who fought to preserve slavery, people who shout chant "Jews will not replace us" on on side, and those who protest against them. That is the key point - and Trump missed it.

We can debate if there was violence on both sides - there certainly was - but the major injuries were caused to the dead woman and those around her, and to the young black man beaten with clubs. But the prime cause of the violence was aggressive demonstration (they came wearing crash helmets and carrying metal poles in many cases) in support of a clearly highly divisive statue and many of them chanting clearly racist and antismetic slogans. If some of the counter protestors became over aggressive in response they shouldn't have done, though it's not really surprising.

It would probably have been OK for Trump to condemn violence on all sides and combine that with a statement of condemnation for the racism and antisemetism, and laying the root cause of the violence firmly where it was. However, he didn't. Until he had clearly been told he had to 48 hours later. Another 24 hours later the real Trump went off script again and started spouting drivel about "very fine people on both sides". It may be true there were genuine, if misguided people, people on the pro statue march, but the way in which he made his (presumably) final remarks put his position firmly back in the moral equivalence camp. That is not a position that the majority in the US will accept - and critically, in terms of what you asked at the start - it massively undermines what (little) support he has in main stream Republicanism.

It may not fatally wound him at this point, but it weakens him still further and makes his position even more vulnerable.

Peter

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75647

Postby dspp » August 19th, 2017, 10:33 am

On the matter of a race war my take is that the USA has never quite come to terms with race, fully and comprehensively and throughout all of society and in all of the states. The reality of a black underclass does continue to exist in too many parts of the USA for that not to be self-evident. We in the UK have our problems, but we are in a better place than the USA to an extent in this regard.

Trump is actually quite a good example of why this perpetuates in the USA - he just doesn't get it. (Obama did). The recent fracas may or may not be a defining moment, but if not there will be others. He is clearly not a typical president in any respect and the US system is now in containment mode. Whether he lasts a term remains to be seen. External events do happen, and it is possible he may wise up to the game being played around him and with him.

But lame duck presidents are still presidents. If you think that meddlesome politicians are the cause of many problems in societies and economies then there is an argument that 4-years of inaction could be a good thing for the US economy. So if he learns to do nothing too serious, and if external events do not force him into big errors, then there is even a possibility that he could get a second term.

Equities are high, the boomers are retiring, bond yields are low, QE continues. Personally I am fully invested, so I am probably wrong.

regards, dspp

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75695

Postby odysseus2000 » August 19th, 2017, 3:34 pm

The more I read and study the Charlottesville troubles, the more irrelevant it seems to the economy and the markets.

Each side in the always confrontation interactions between the Democrats and Republicans is milking the tragedy for what ever they can get as are the fringe players and the media, all attempting to create mountains from mole hills

Meanwhile the impasse between the President, the House and the Senate remains a trouble for any meaningful change to the economy, health care, taxes, infrastructure etc.

While all of this is going on the voters will not be happy, but they had 8 years of Obama who didn[t give them what they wanted and now Trump who also seems incapable of giving them what they want. Meanwhile it is not clear what Americans want and whether there is anything that will have clear support across the parties.

In this divisive and difficult political environment major US corporations are doing exceptionally well despite that many think they could do better if the tax regime was changed to allow them to bring back money with much reduced penalties. It is hard to listen to many of the major US corporations and not be impressed by their earnings and although some sectors such as retailing are falling to the mite of Amazon, there are many others that are prospering.

Contrasting the US technology sector to similar sectors in other nations it is hard to find examples of where the US is losing market share or suffering in all the fastest growing trends of the moment.

One could almost get to thinking that who ever is in the Whitehouse would make no difference as although some potential occupants might want more regulation or less, to what ever is their pet policy, they would like Obama and Trump fail to get what they wanted.

Such a stalemate undermines democracy, but as some have said: “If voting changed anything, they would abolish it.”

Based on this analysis, if it is correct, then any sell off in US equities is a better buy than a sell. At some point this will change but the tragedy of Charlottesville does not seem to me anything like a major catalyst and for the moment I don't see one although they have always eventually appeared in the past.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75778

Postby PeterGray » August 20th, 2017, 9:37 am

The more I read and study the Charlottesville troubles, the more irrelevant it seems to the economy and the markets.

Each side in the always confrontation interactions between the Democrats and Republicans is milking the tragedy for what ever they can get as are the fringe players and the media, all attempting to create mountains from mole hills


I think you miss the point.

The key point has been that the condemnation of Trump has come from all sides of mainstream US politicians. Democrats and Republicans have not been milking if for what they can get for their own party agendas. Condemnation has come from both sides - ex Republican presidents, senior Republicans have been saying the same as senior Democrats.

There may be no immediate effect on either the economy or on Trumps presidency, but he has weakened himself further. No possibility of impeachment existed while he could rely on the Republican majority in the House and Senate. That may well no longer be the case.

Peter

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75783

Postby tjh290633 » August 20th, 2017, 9:52 am

PeterGray wrote:The key point has been that the condemnation of Trump has come from all sides of mainstream US politicians. Democrats and Republicans have not been milking if for what they can get for their own party agendas. Condemnation has come from both sides - ex Republican presidents, senior Republicans have been saying the same as senior Democrats.

There may be no immediate effect on either the economy or on Trumps presidency, but he has weakened himself further. No possibility of impeachment existed while he could rely on the Republican majority in the House and Senate. That may well no longer be the case.

Peter


Maybe the key to that is that Trump has detractors in his own party as well as in the opposition and single interest groups.

I gather there is a lot of truth in his comments that the fault lies on both (or several) sides in Charlotteville. The fundamental cause was the decision to remove the statue of General Robert E.Lee. Without that, nothing would have happened.

TJH

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75828

Postby PeterGray » August 20th, 2017, 1:29 pm

I gather there is a lot of truth in his comments that the fault lies on both (or several) sides in Charlotteville. The fundamental cause was the decision to remove the statue of General Robert E.Lee. Without that, nothing would have happened.

In a world where the US had moved on completely from the issues surrounding the civil war it might be the case that statues of people who fought against the government of the US in support of slavery had a historical interest that could be understood and accepted (though it's hard to imagine, for example, much support in Europe for statues being put up commemorating key figures in the 3rd Reich). However, that is manifestly not the case. Statues, such as Lee's, were mostly put up years after the civil war as political statements by those acting to preserve white superiority, at a time when segregation was being enforced, and steps were being taken to prevent black people being able to vote. Racism remains rife in the southern states, it's not long ago that those campaigning for civil rights were being killed and black people trying to register to vote were being prevented, often violently, from doing so. There is still clear institutional racism in many US police forces.

That is the back ground against which many local administrations, both Democrat and Republican, have decided that removing monuments to those who fought to keep black people in slavery should be removed. The protests against that have come, quite clearly, from those who would like Lee to have been successful - they are often openly neo fascist, antisemitic and racist. Many came to Charlottesville wearing crash helmets and carrying staves with flags.

Under those circumstances to say that the fault lies on both sides, or that there is the slightest moral equivalence, is to completely miss the point. Yes, of course some counter demonstrators became violent, and in an ideal world they should not have done. However, it's perfectly clear that the cause of the violence was a demonstration by aggressive racists marching in support of commemoration of an openly racist figure who fought for continued slavery of black people, many of whom came looking for trouble.

You may miss the point, as Trump does, but thankfully wider US opinion, including at the highest levels in both main parties do not. That is the significance of what has happened, and why Trump is less likely to be able to rely on the support he will need from his own party in future.

Peter

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75920

Postby odysseus2000 » August 21st, 2017, 4:49 am

The causes of the American Civil War have long been debated and have changed over time. Some argue that it was all about slavery, a great crusade powered by the powerful novel “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” others that it was all about preserving the Union and that the ending of slavery was another weapon used to undermine the Southern States economy. All of these factors have had huge investment implications for the US.

What ever the causes of the war, the consequences for the South were severe and even now many are still incensed about what Sherman did on his march through Georgia and how the Yankee carpet baggers then came and exploited the defenceless South. Mixed in to all this is the terrible treatment of blacks for over century after the war at a time of huge economic expansion.

Many argue that Lincoln abolished slavery and gave black people equality, but the reality is that Lincoln did not believe that black skinned people should have the same rights as white skinned, nor did he like going against the constitution which had supported the concept of slavery albeit in a non explicit manner. He famously noted:

“I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races,”

http://www.history.com/news/5-things-yo ... ancipation.

He opposed votes for blacks, interracial marriage, jury service… all the things which held sway for 5 generations post Lincoln till the time of Kennedy and Johnson who forced through equality legislation. Whether the Lincoln memorial will ever be pulled down is an open question.

Where the 1920’s statues to confederate soldiers (Lee etc) about the recollection and acknowledgement of the genuine beliefs of the folk who fought for the South or pure racist propaganda is another topic on which there is polarised disagreement, made more complicated by the growing hispanic population and its economic influences including Trump’s belief that a Mexico wall is needed.

Having worked in Alabama for several years the realities of the modern US economy and its investment implications are exceedingly complex. The often UK view of the blacks as a beaten down but united sub-class is far from reality with much intergroup conflict and “a Uncle Tom” being a term of loathing flung about among blacks. Meanwhile there is the inherent tension of affirmative action and life long welfare receivers, conflicts between whites, blacks and latinos, not to mentions the tensions between States over federal spending etc.

It remains a melting pot and every politician and media journalist is forever trying to find ways to exploit it for their own ends and to give campaign backers value for their donations. The emerging consensus seems to be that everyone wants to stop Trump achieving anything except the voters who want things to be better and who despair about the party and personnel politics that gridlocks Washington. From an investment perspective a gridlocked Washington has a lot of attractions as the US economy has shown it can grow strongly in such a regime.

It is difficult for me to see how the tragedies of Charlottesville will have any investment implications. The focus on the neo-Nazi looks to me to be a red herring, beloved by folk who hate Trump and cited relentlessly by his opponents. But even in the Vine documentary the lack of support for Neo-Nazi groups is shown by how far the folk had to come to try and get media attention for their cause. These are not strong local organisations as was once the case in the hay day of the KKK, but minorities spread thinly about the US, desperate for more members.Sure lots of folk have rounded on Trump and whether he is right or wrong he didn’t handled the politics well, but that is a very different situation to the Republicans wanting Trump out such that it seems highly probable that they will support him if needed and in some ways have to for their weakness is the relentless election cycle where Trump still remains popular with the voters and his calls to elect folk sympathetic to his agenda can sway elections. The growing belief that Trump is now a lame duck president incapable of getting any legislation through the house and senate does have one unfortunate potential consequence. If Trump believes he can do nothing domestically and the coming infrastructure bill will likely confirm or not this belief, then he may decide that his legacy will have to be in the international arena with North Korea a potential focus for regime change.

It seems likely that more statues will be removed in the US, there is too much momentum for this movement now to expect it to stop and too many folk have a lot to gain from the ensuing conflicts, and there will be more forgetting of past tensions as there are lots of new ones to replace them.

Meanwhile in the UK we still retain statues of the defeated leader in our terrible and very bloody Civil war:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equestria ... ring_Cross

By contrast the remains of the victor in the UK civil war, Oliver Cromwell where pulled from his grave, hung and then cast on the dung pile. History and its lessons are relentlessly changed for the needs of each generation.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75948

Postby PeterGray » August 21st, 2017, 9:35 am


It is difficult for me to see how the tragedies of Charlottesville will have any investment implications.


As I've said from the start, the investment implications are likely not immediate. However, it's quite clear that Trump's has been weakened by recent events - support from mainstream Republicanism has been weakened further.

That means that getting legislation though is going to be even harder, and his position, should there be a real challenge to his position from the various investigations, will weaker.

The investment implications lead from that. It has been suggested here that could be a good thing - inactive government possibly being a benefit to the markets. But I'll lead you draw your own conclusions.

Peter

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75965

Postby genou » August 21st, 2017, 11:32 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The causes of the American Civil War have long been debated and have changed over time. ..


They were pretty clear at the time: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2001/04 ... n-comfort/

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75996

Postby odysseus2000 » August 21st, 2017, 1:25 pm

Genou

They were pretty clear at the time: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2001/04 ... n-comfort/


Don't know! Having studied it and even visited where Jefferson Davis spent his remaining days on the gulf coast, I have always been overwhelmed by the intense conflicts in what folk said & did. But what ever the cause(s) it was a very bad time for all those involved.

Whether removing all the monuments & changing the names of parks & roads etc will achieve anything and prevent future troubles is unclear to me, but the folk who live there seem to feel it will, so let's hope they are right.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#75999

Postby odysseus2000 » August 21st, 2017, 1:32 pm

PeterGray
.

As I've said from the start, the investment implications are likely not immediate. However, it's quite clear that Trump's has been weakened by recent events - support from mainstream Republicanism has been weakened further.


Perhaps we can agree that Trump's honeymoon period is over or at least coming to its end.

I am just not sure it means anything more than the natural process of the new ideas becoming older & less emotional.

It is not to my view anything more, nothing for example that could lead to a Nixon like resignation or any knid of impeachment.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#76047

Postby PeterGray » August 21st, 2017, 4:33 pm

Perhaps we can agree that Trump's honeymoon period is over or at least coming to its end.

I am just not sure it means anything more than the natural process of the new ideas becoming older & less emotional.

It is not to my view anything more, nothing for example that could lead to a Nixon like resignation or any knid of impeachment.

Regards,


I disagree. I don't think Trump ever had much of honeymoon period. His ratings prior to last week were the worst ever, and since then he has been publicly criticised by a row of senior Republicans.

As I've repeatedly said, I don't expect this to lead directly to impeachment or resignation. What I keep saying is that it makes it more likely in future as his position is now significantly further weakened. And there are already other issues that could lead to moves towards that - if those happen his position is now much less likely to be secure.

Peter

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#76088

Postby odysseus2000 » August 21st, 2017, 6:28 pm

Yes, but all political careers end in failure, for the investor it is about spotting what might unsettle the markets due to a resignation, impeachment etc.

So far nothing that Trump has done is like Bill Clinton, Reagan, or Nixon nor like the destroying of evidence & such that Hillary Clinton may have done. In this list only Nixon was brought down.

So to me this ranks as a non event that might have some long term weight, but I doubt that.

Looking at approval ratings is quite interesting:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presi ... trump.aspx

Sure Trump is low, but some of the others underwent significant drops later on. Meanwhile Trumps approval with his own supporters is high (scroll down to chart).

So I remain unconvinced that this event is anything significant.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#84359

Postby odysseus2000 » September 28th, 2017, 11:31 pm

Trump has now grandstanded about how the new tax bill will be great, but will it happen in any form?

Many US politicians want to cut taxes, but the rub is that they want them cut so as to be IRS revenue neutral & so that their donors & supporters don't pay any more tax, better they pay less tax. Such aspirations don't seem very practical.

Based on the failure to repeal Obama care & the complexities of US tax it seems unlikely that anything will happen at least this year. Could be that Trump has some executive orders hidden up his sleeve re repatriation, but if he has they are well concealed.

So I begin to wonder if the market is rallying because it has decided there will be no changes to the tax code & since it did well under this tax code when Obama was in office, that it will do fine now.

Of course there are some who argue that when folk find out there will be no tax changes, that they will sell the market, but I begin to think that the market has already worked it out & is happy enough with the status quo.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#84538

Postby DiamondEcho » September 29th, 2017, 3:24 pm

Well what leader presents a policy without 'grandstanding' it?
AFAIUI Trump doesn't want to be 'revenue neutral', he wants to cut taxes for everyone. I read a left-perspective column that decried the proposed cuts because they would in the short-term allegedly reduce deficit reduction. Pinch yourself - when ever have the left cared about that, and gone on to do it?
The fact is that high domestic corporate tax rates dissuade repatriation of offshore profits. So they aren't repatriated and put to work 'back home'. I don't see a downside to encouraging such repatriation.
Simplifying the tax-code is going to be good for just about everyone except tax accountants. I've made the analogy before - look at the dynamism of the Singapore economy. There most people don't ever file a tax return in their lives. For most that have to it's a single page long. Compare that to the US where you have to file Federal and State returns, and if you are say an employee with a buy-to-let and a few investments your completed return might end up as thick as a telephone directory [like mine did one year!].
AIUI in the longer-term post-election of Trump the market has rallied, but it hasn't assumed the tax bill will pass yet, it sees the potential for Dems not wanting tax-cuts [lol]. It'll be interesting to see how they argue against it, if there is more to it than making deficit-reduction the alt. sole concern.

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#84830

Postby odysseus2000 » September 30th, 2017, 10:51 pm

Yes, all politicians grandstand, but the problem I am having with Trump is that is brilliant crowd pleasing oratory is not being reflected in legislation or any other changes. Sure everyone says that it is and will happen, but so far nothing is happening.

I pay US tax and lived in the US for several years so I am very aware of how difficult US taxes are and it would be great if they could be simplified and if US corporations could bring home money without severe taxes.

Even though the current evidence is that Trump & Congress will not work together, US market moved well after the tax proposal.

I am assuming that most market participants realise that the chance of anything being done is remote and so it seems to me that the US market players believe that the status quo will be good enough.

If this isn't the case and folk believe that tax legislation will come quickly there may be a market sell off if this doesn't happen.

Personally I currently believe that its the status quo that is driving market strength. Sure if something does really happen on taxes the markets could react very strongly upwards, but I currently feel that no action is already in equity prices and so I currently don't expect a sell off if, as I expect, tax reform doesn't happen.

Regards,

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Re: Trump honey moon over?

#85141

Postby Mapfumo » October 2nd, 2017, 3:25 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:The fact is that high domestic corporate tax rates dissuade repatriation of offshore profits. So they aren't repatriated and put to work 'back home'.


There's an argument that says that such repatriation is largely irrelevant, other than from a tax point of view.
The claim is that e.g. the money that Apple holds in bank accounts in Ireland can already be put to work back in the US - it's just that it's done via an intermediary (the bank decides where to invest the money that is deposited and is likely buying US equity & bonds with it.) If Apple were to hold that money in a US bank account, it could just as easily be invested outside of the US.


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