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BoE May Cut Interest Rates

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AsleepInYorkshire
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BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#276910

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » January 12th, 2020, 8:30 pm

Bank of England policy-maker hints at possible rate cut
Another Bank of England policy-maker has floated the idea of cutting the central bank's main interest rate.

AiYn'U

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#277727

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » January 15th, 2020, 9:34 pm

13th January 2020
Fall in inflation raises prospects of interest rate cut


The UK's inflation rate fell to its lowest for more than three years in December, increasing speculation that interest rates could be cut.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278229

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » January 17th, 2020, 6:55 pm

17th January 2020
Retail sales fall sharply in December


Retail sales fell again in December as a Christmas shopping spree failed to materialise.

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TUK020
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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278310

Postby TUK020 » January 18th, 2020, 8:18 am

And in industry:
FT article today: Forget staying close to EU after Brexit, chancellor tells business
"Urges companies to 'adjust' to new reality"

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278352

Postby dspp » January 18th, 2020, 11:50 am

TUK020 wrote:And in industry:
FT article today: Forget staying close to EU after Brexit, chancellor tells business
"Urges companies to 'adjust' to new reality"


I think "flee" might be the better description.

regards, dspp

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278358

Postby TUK020 » January 18th, 2020, 12:25 pm

dspp wrote:I think "flee" might be the better description.

regards, dspp


It's 25 years since I have lived and worked in France, and my spoken French is very rusty.
I have started language tuition to get it back up to speed.
Looking on the Rightmove website, you get a lot of house for your money in the south of France

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278361

Postby dspp » January 18th, 2020, 12:58 pm

Snorvey wrote:One drawback.

It's full of French people.


No, we call ourselves Europeans.

dspp

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278412

Postby TUK020 » January 18th, 2020, 6:18 pm

Snorvey wrote:One drawback.

It's full of French people.

Well, I'm half Breton and married to a lady from Alsace.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278554

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 19th, 2020, 3:32 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:13th January 2020
Fall in inflation raises prospects of interest rate cut


The UK's inflation rate fell to its lowest for more than three years in December, increasing speculation that interest rates could be cut.

AiYn'U

But the FTSE350 is very upbeat is it not? Even my UK-facing stocks in me and Mel's foli (MSLH, NXT, PSN, LGEN, etc. etc.) are well up. The only UK one we have that's struggling is TRI.

I guess the analyst/advisers to the big players (investors) on our markets are pricing in either "UK will be OK" or "Big corporation tax cuts".

Matt

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278555

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 19th, 2020, 3:35 pm

So the rationale behind the rate cut, is to devalue the £ and juice up exports?

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278586

Postby ffacoffipawb64 » January 19th, 2020, 5:49 pm

Snorvey wrote:One drawback.

It's full of French people.


Hmmm. Bit racist.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278587

Postby EssDeeAitch » January 19th, 2020, 5:57 pm

ffacoffipawb64 wrote:
Snorvey wrote:One drawback.

It's full of French people.


Hmmm. Bit racist.


Best report it to the moderators if you feel that way.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278588

Postby Snorvey » January 19th, 2020, 6:06 pm

ffacoffipawb64 wrote:
Snorvey wrote:One drawback.

It's full of French people.


Hmmm. Bit racist.


Oh for fuxake. I'll report it.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278650

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 20th, 2020, 6:26 am

Does anyone __actually_want__ to discuss our economy or the BoE's statements in any way??

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278652

Postby johnhemming » January 20th, 2020, 7:06 am

I think it is sensible for the BoE to risk a bit more inflation with a view towards stimulating investment.. The real difficulty is working out what impact a Canada - type deal will have. My guess is that the car manufacturers etc will not shut down overnight, but will stop investment and gradually transfer production outside the UK.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278656

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 20th, 2020, 7:12 am

johnhemming wrote:I think it is sensible for the BoE to risk a bit more inflation with a view towards stimulating investment.. The real difficulty is working out what impact a Canada - type deal will have. My guess is that the car manufacturers etc will not shut down overnight, but will stop investment and gradually transfer production outside the UK.

Thanks John,

By that do you mean if we do have a "Canada - type deal" here, then it's possible car manufacturers in the UK will move overseas, but by reducing our IR we could offset that possibility by encouraging those firms to borrow money here and hence continue to invest in the UK (and hence pay British workers etc. etc.)?

Just curious and trying to figure out how these things work.

Matt

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278657

Postby johnhemming » January 20th, 2020, 7:18 am

I think the difficulty is a mixture of customs friction and the rules of origin rather than any tariffs. Tariffs are relatively easy to deal with as it is only really about money and if the government wishes things can be done about that. I would assume any deal would not really have tariffs.

The financial services sector need to establish subsidiaries in the EU. In the main they have been doing that. Food exports are more of a challenge, but the government may simply fold on such rules.

Alternatively Johnson will simply do a mid year U turn as he did on Northern Ireland in the WA.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278662

Postby TUK020 » January 20th, 2020, 7:34 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
johnhemming wrote:I think it is sensible for the BoE to risk a bit more inflation with a view towards stimulating investment.. The real difficulty is working out what impact a Canada - type deal will have. My guess is that the car manufacturers etc will not shut down overnight, but will stop investment and gradually transfer production outside the UK.

Thanks John,

By that do you mean if we do have a "Canada - type deal" here, then it's possible car manufacturers in the UK will move overseas, but by reducing our IR we could offset that possibility by encouraging those firms to borrow money here and hence continue to invest in the UK (and hence pay British workers etc. etc.)?

Just curious and trying to figure out how these things work.

Matt

I think that divergence of standards could have a fairly drastic effect on investment. Devil will be in the detail. Any action on interest rates will be like pushing on a rope.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278665

Postby johnhemming » January 20th, 2020, 7:53 am

A rope which cannot be pushed that far anyway.

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Re: BoE May Cut Interest Rates

#278675

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 20th, 2020, 8:37 am

Hmm.. I'm still trying to connect why many of my UK-facing stocks like I mentioned in viewtopic.php?p=278554#p278554 are still quite bullish (as is the FTSE350). The proposed rate cut seems to flag pessimism, but my UK stocks seem to be indicating growing earnings (in GBP) and so are optimistic signals to my brain.

I can only guess that the stocks I mentioned (Softcat SCT is another currently very bullish UK one of mine, +32% in the last 3 months) are priced based on a short-term fantasy but that the BoE are predicting a depressing slowburn medium/long term picture.

(Sorry I'm currently reading "The Black Swan" - but I still can't get causality out of my head).

Matt


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