what happens when...

[didds]

Moderator Message:
Moved here from DAK shadow left there.

... all these small businesses in the hospitaliuty sector go bust because

* no governmental closures
* meaning no business continuity insurances can be claimed on [1]
* but governmentala dvice to stay away from such businesses anyway

that leaves all those landlords and suppliers out of business/loss of incomes as well.

Landlords are stuffed - as "nobody" will have any money to start again when this all blows over. All those business owners are broke. Their staff are out of jobs.

As a starter, woud lkandlords maybe be better off waiving rents until this is all over - as its a case of having no rent NOW or LATER anyway? And that may leave thes ebusinesses able to start up again? Though that leaves landlords exposed of course.

Just wondering what the overall strategies need to be for buisinesses while our leaders effectively do not prrotect anybody.

Maybe Schroedinger's magic money tree needs to cough up for underwriters iun the same way they did the banks thirteen years ago or so ?

didds

[1] obviously dependent on T&Cs of policies anyway, but generally no enforced closure = no claim

[didds]

this possibly needs to go in LOST (or whatever it is called now) but I was more interested in solutions rather than political cant etc

beerpig's snug maybe?

[UncleEbenezer]

... all these small businesses in the hospitaliuty sector go bust because

* no governmental closures
* meaning no business continuity insurances can be claimed on [1]
* but governmentala dvice to stay away from such businesses anyway

that leaves all those landlords and suppliers out of business/loss of incomes as well.

Landlords are stuffed - as "nobody" will have any money to start again when this all blows over. All those business owners are broke. Their staff are out of jobs.

The sector is quite mixed. In food/drink or B&B, a fair few may be that dream job for someone who made their pile in the city, and still have something to fall back on if they batten down and reduce costs (and there are always more looking to make that move, to buy up selected bust biz). And a longstanding family biz may enjoy the financial comfort zone of owning its own premises!

And in entertainment, there are lots of amateur groups, such as a couple of big choirs I sing in (small groups work differently). A group with an upcoming event might be in trouble if they're already committed to big costs - like professional soloists, orchestra and venue - but members are still there.

Insurance could be quite a lawyer-fest, to test an argument that yesterday's announcement really did amount to a de-facto government ban. Out of reach of most victims of course, but someone deep-pocketed could perhaps launch a class/test case (Marstons' Last Stand has a certain ring to it - shame their actual get-out is more likely to be something much more boring about debt interest holiday)! All good Jobs for the - um - city slickers.

But I suspect Stuttley may have another wheeze in mind. Give it a while for the public to realise the problem, then be seen to ride to the rescue by announcing that it was indeed a de-facto ban and insurers must treat it as such. Some victims semi-randomly rescued, lawyers fed, credit to the peoples' hero!

[didds]

And in entertainment, there are lots of amateur groups, such as a couple of big choirs I sing in (small groups work differently). A group with an upcoming event might be in trouble if they're already committed to big costs - like professional soloists, orchestra and venue - but members are still there.

every amateur production I am aware of aroud here is cancelled, both those I am in and many others. Several just a week away from performance week.

Its clear from social media groups I am in that this is across the country too.

its likely some companies may collapse through costs incurred etc. Some venues too it seems.

didds

[Wuffle]

Mostly kids employed in these industries.
When it starts to warm up, they still feel fine but no money.....they won't be all that forgiving.

W.

[odysseus2000]

At some point there will have to be some kind of bailout for anything that can be deemed to be in the national interest: transport, food, entertainment,.. else a collapse of the current way of life and huge benefit payments.

How exactly this will be done and who will get it and who won't will take some contentious cabinet meetings.

Meanwhile the vaccine scientists may ride to the rescue and may be allowed to greatly reduce testing for anything that looks useful.

One of the biggest issues now is fear and the mass of naysayers everywhere.

There will be an answer, Let it be:

Keep watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6T5C-jzSH0

Regards,

[UncleEbenezer]

And in entertainment, there are lots of amateur groups, such as a couple of big choirs I sing in (small groups work differently). A group with an upcoming event might be in trouble if they're already committed to big costs - like professional soloists, orchestra and venue - but members are still there.

every amateur production I am aware of aroud here is cancelled, both those I am in and many others. Several just a week away from performance week.

Its clear from social media groups I am in that this is across the country too.

its likely some companies may collapse through costs incurred etc. Some venues too it seems.

didds

FWIW, I had email on Saturday regarding a forthcoming concert:

[...]
it is likely now that we will regretfully need to postpone our concert.
[...]
The committee will be meeting on Monday afternoon to discuss the logistics of this and we will send out confirmation of our decision formally following that meeting.

to which I replied:

Have you checked the choir's insurance?

I'd guess that if we have to cancel because the government tells us to, we should be able to claim against financial losses. But if it's our own decision, that gives an insurer ample room to wiggle out of it.

Just a thought. I'd be checking carefully, and looking to stare down the government if necessary. At least, if likely losses are non-trivial.

All of that before yesterday's media event, of course.

[didds]

bang on UE. Its seems businesses with business continuity insurance can only possibly make a claim IF governemntal closure is a primary trigger. As it is by not closing such establishments [1] but then also telling people they shodnt go to them, he has managed to now permit the markets and social pressure blackmail [2] to close them while leaving the underwriters in the city unexposed.

I would indeed imagine any choir/performance insurance to operate similarly

didds




[1]pubs, restaurants and theatres were the three stated places but that clearly includes oither public spaces such as cafes and cinemas etc etc - churches didnt get mentioned I noticed

[2] i know both pubs and shows that have made this call as they feel they cannot expose their cistomers and staff etc etc

[swill453]

bang on UE. Its seems businesses with business continuity insurance can only possibly make a claim IF governemntal closure is a primary trigger. As it is by not closing such establishments [1] but then also telling people they shodnt go to them, he has managed to now permit the markets and social pressure blackmail [2] to close them while leaving the underwriters in the city unexposed.

The ABI have released a statement indicating most businesses wouldn't be covered even if it was ordered by government.

https://www.abi.org.uk/news/news-articl ... ronavirus/

Scott.

[didds]

Indeed.

Hence primary trigger.
It all as ever relies on the T&Cs in each policy. But until/unless there was a government closedown whatever the other T&Cs may or may not be is irrelevant. That's the point.

didds

[gryffron]

I think each country is trying to handle this as best it can.

Stopping rent payments is great, but what happens if that causes Landlords to default on their mortgages?

USA is suggesting giving $1,000 to each household.
Norway is propping up everyone's wages, including the self employed. But they have their massive sovereign wealth fund to fall back on.

Losing any step of the economy is very bad for the future.
Lose staff, they might be hard to get back.
Lose businesses, where do future jobs come from?
Rent defaults will harm landlords.
Mortgage defaults will kill both the lenders and the property market (and thus housebuilders).

The challenge for governments is to keep EVERYTHING they possibly can just about ticking over until the economy recovers.

Governments do have the benefit of very low borrowing rates. At the moment that is hard to pass on. I suspect we will see very low rate emergency loans being passed on to struggling businesses. But again, the problem is how to help those genuinely in need without filling the pockets of profiteers.

Gryff