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Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

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langdale
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Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338233

Postby langdale » September 5th, 2020, 7:15 am

I keep reading higher inflation may be ahead and physical assets e.g. property may protect against it. Unfortunately I can't go out and just buy a house or flat. Are there any investments like ITs/unit trusts/ETFs/shares which could replicate owning residential property?

tjh290633
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338308

Postby tjh290633 » September 5th, 2020, 12:07 pm

langdale wrote:I keep reading higher inflation may be ahead and physical assets e.g. property may protect against it. Unfortunately I can't go out and just buy a house or flat. Are there any investments like ITs/unit trusts/ETFs/shares which could replicate owning residential property?

Have you looked at the Student accommodation REITs?

GCP Student Living ( DIGS) or Unite Group http://www.unite-group.co.uk/investors (UTG) might give you a clue.

TJH

Mike4
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338317

Postby Mike4 » September 5th, 2020, 12:17 pm

langdale wrote:Are there any investments like ITs/unit trusts/ETFs/shares which could replicate owning residential property?


I doubt it. How would they be able to replicate the tenant calling you at 9.00pm on a Sunday to say there is water gushing through the bathroom ceiling?

gnawsome
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338321

Postby gnawsome » September 5th, 2020, 12:23 pm

langdale wrote:I keep reading higher inflation may be ahead and physical assets e.g. property may protect against it. Unfortunately I can't go out and just buy a house or flat. Are there any investments like ITs/unit trusts/ETFs/shares which could replicate owning residential property?


Grainger plc, the UK's largest listed residential landlord and leader in the UK private rented sector... (PRS),
1st line of RNS...

odysseus2000
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338451

Postby odysseus2000 » September 6th, 2020, 1:38 am

langdale
I keep reading higher inflation may be ahead and physical assets e.g. property may protect against it. Unfortunately I can't go out and just buy a house or flat. Are there any investments like ITs/unit trusts/ETFs/shares which could replicate owning residential property?


There is an industry based upon predicting inflation that has been around since the last big inflation times of the 1970's.

These folk have found inflation signs in every tea leaf they have looked at and they are big drinkers of tea.

The problem for them has been that inflation has been awol, more recently its ugly sister deflation has been more of a concern.

What happens now with all this money printing which devalues currencies is as always unknowable.

We had a big print in 2009, but no inflation like the 1970's. Will the current big print lead to inflation, the collapse of money, massive rises in land prices, gold and cyber currencies?

Added into this mix is the also unknowable effect of working from home. Will this continue, leading to falling city office rents, falling city property prices and rises in the price of housing and land in rural locations?

There is also the unknowable effect of immigration. Will the current large numbers of immigrants continue, or will Brexit lead to a stop in the increase and a removal of many of the asylum seekers. These processes can have substantial impacts on land and property prices.

You probably don't want more unknowables, but potentially the greatest secular change since the first industrial revolution, maybe happening as AI develops and starts to do lots of jobs that hitherto required people.

Still the purveyors of doom are all over the internet, predicting with fevered certainty all manner of trouble and who knows if this time they may get it right.

Regards

scrumpyjack
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338486

Postby scrumpyjack » September 6th, 2020, 10:17 am

I think I've read more forecasts of deflation than I've had hot dinners.
In the UK we have not had deflation since the 1930's, ever.

No inflation since 2009????? It now takes £1.35 to buy what cost £1 in 2009

So inflation is certainly not dead and with every government in the western world printing money like there's no tomorrow, higher inflation has got to be a real probability.

IMO anyway!
:D

langdale
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338595

Postby langdale » September 6th, 2020, 6:40 pm

Many thanks for the interesting replies.

Have elderly family members whose savings were severely affected by inflation in the '70s which makes me wary of it. Not expecting it to be that bad but nevertheless want to be careful.

Problem is not knowing whether global ITs would protect against it or whether gold, property, index-linked bonds(?) etc would be better. Am looking at Personal Assets and Capital Gearing for part of my portfolio because they seem to be a good mix. But if I could also buy a house/flat I would (but I can't) hence my original question.

dspp
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338602

Postby dspp » September 6th, 2020, 7:26 pm

langdale wrote:Many thanks for the interesting replies.

Have elderly family members whose savings were severely affected by inflation in the '70s which makes me wary of it. Not expecting it to be that bad but nevertheless want to be careful.

Problem is not knowing whether global ITs would protect against it or whether gold, property, index-linked bonds(?) etc would be better. Am looking at Personal Assets and Capital Gearing for part of my portfolio because they seem to be a good mix. But if I could also buy a house/flat I would (but I can't) hence my original question.


The 70s wiped out all the savings of some of my ancestors, who had rather unwisely put it all in bonds "so as to be safe". Mind you they made plenty of other bad mistakes as well, including on property.

Might it be the same again ? Sick man of Europe and all that for a few decades. That, as much as general inflation, are factors to take into account imho. You are wise to be spreading your eyes beyond the UK, though that won't necessarily stop any populist UK governments taxing you if you.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338617

Postby odysseus2000 » September 6th, 2020, 8:28 pm

This was 1970's inflation:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... rice-shock

This is the price of oil 2012 to 2020:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart

Regards,

Spet0789
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338704

Postby Spet0789 » September 7th, 2020, 10:47 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
There is also the unknowable effect of immigration. Will the current large numbers of immigrants continue, or will Brexit lead to a stop in the increase and a removal of many of the asylum seekers. These processes can have substantial impacts on land and property prices.

Regards


Brexit will not alter our responsibilities with respect to asylum seekers one iota. Narrowly considered, it will if anything increase the number of asylum seekers we have to deal with, as the current arrangements we have allowing us to return them to other EU member states are likely to fall away.

Of course, Brexit will likely damage our economy relative to those of our neighbours (the economic impact of Covid, while it may be larger, will reduce growth everywhere) and that will deter some asylum seekers as they will prefer to build a life in a richer country within the EU. But in that scenario, downward pressure on property prices/rents will be because Britons have lost jobs/income, not because we have lower immigration.

Brexit may also lead to the return of a lot of British ex-pats in Europe, especially if Britain continues down the path of repudiating the Withdrawal Agreement.

To conflate asylum seekers with Brexit is something of a racist trope and I would suggest you avoid it.

odysseus2000
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338741

Postby odysseus2000 » September 7th, 2020, 1:18 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
There is also the unknowable effect of immigration. Will the current large numbers of immigrants continue, or will Brexit lead to a stop in the increase and a removal of many of the asylum seekers. These processes can have substantial impacts on land and property prices.

Regards


Brexit will not alter our responsibilities with respect to asylum seekers one iota. Narrowly considered, it will if anything increase the number of asylum seekers we have to deal with, as the current arrangements we have allowing us to return them to other EU member states are likely to fall away.

Of course, Brexit will likely damage our economy relative to those of our neighbours (the economic impact of Covid, while it may be larger, will reduce growth everywhere) and that will deter some asylum seekers as they will prefer to build a life in a richer country within the EU. But in that scenario, downward pressure on property prices/rents will be because Britons have lost jobs/income, not because we have lower immigration.

Brexit may also lead to the return of a lot of British ex-pats in Europe, especially if Britain continues down the path of repudiating the Withdrawal Agreement.

To conflate asylum seekers with Brexit is something of a racist trope and I would suggest you avoid it.


I am merely considering what might happen regarding inflation & potential influences on it.

For property prices to carry on rising needs a prosperous economy & a static or increasing population.

I have no idea what will happen to the uk economy after Brexit, the uk may go into a decline or it may prosper. Barnier currently seems more worried about the latter than the former

Similarly I have no idea what will happen to immigration and asylum law. The uk may continue abiding by the Geneva convention & the additions introduced during the Blair administrative, or it may decide to re-write the law. Whether parliament would support it, who knows but the potential for huge changes in immigration law exists. Immigration may increase which would be bullish for property prices.

I do not see how wondering what will happen to immigration is racist. I know legal immigrants who are furious about the current situation, saying it undermines all the trouble & expense they had to go through to become legal residents. Indeed the Home Secretary is the child of immigrants & she has been one of the most aggressive voices in the cabinet wanting it stopped. Does this make her racist?

There are huge uncertainties over many things and as an investor it is prudent to consider all things and to accept that no one knows the future.

Regards,

Spet0789
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#338752

Postby Spet0789 » September 7th, 2020, 2:17 pm

Speculation on future levels of immigration and what may drive them is certainly a valid part of a discussion on property. It's not racist in the slightest.

However, you said: "will Brexit lead to a stop in the increase and a removal of many of the asylum seekers?"

My point was that this is a complete non-sequitur. Brexit may certainly have an impact on immigration but it will not have any impact whatsoever on the number of asylum seekers in the UK. This link was (irrationally) made during the Brexit referendum and it successfully incited xenophobes and racists (alongside many perfectly intelligent and decent people) to vote to leave the EU.

If you had said: "will Brexit lead to a reduction in immigration as EU citizens lose the right to live and work in the UK", that would been an entirely sensible question.

As a final point, asylum seekers are a rounding error in the overall UK migration flows. They're pretty irrelevant to property prices in my view.

And anyway, property prices at the national level are more driven by the availability of credit than by immigration, supply or any other factor.

StepOne
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#339016

Postby StepOne » September 8th, 2020, 3:40 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:In the UK we have not had deflation since the 1930's, ever.


Well, which is it? :lol:

StepOne

scrumpyjack
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Re: Property investment vehicles to replicate owning a house/flat

#339038

Postby scrumpyjack » September 8th, 2020, 4:48 pm

OK, but I think you know what I mean. My old friend HY Perbole overcame me!


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