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France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

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AsleepInYorkshire
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France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#351479

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 28th, 2020, 8:05 pm

Coronavirus: Macron declares second national lockdown in France
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown for at least the whole of November.

AiY

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#351631

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 29th, 2020, 10:34 am

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - study
The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.
...
The South East, South West, east of England and London all have an R above 2.0.
...
Cases are spiking in young people in the South West in a repeat of the pattern seen in northern England just over a month ago.


France & Germany have now taken action at national level to contain the rate of infection. Both countries have much larger facilities to deal with the virus, in particular the number of beds available in their hospitals. France is attempting to keep its schools and factories open.

I anticipate that it won't be long before the "English" Government announces similar measures.

At such time there will be stock buying opportunities. There will also be stock buying traps.

AiY

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352278

Postby UncleEbenezer » October 31st, 2020, 6:19 pm

So, an immensely damaging measure that's failed once (due to what happened on exit) is to be repeated.

What's that about madness? And news is saying we're to get an announcement here too. Worst of both worlds (again): far too late to stop the spread! :evil:

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352313

Postby vagrantbrain » October 31st, 2020, 8:26 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:So, an immensely damaging measure that's failed once (due to what happened on exit) is to be repeated.

What's that about madness? And news is saying we're to get an announcement here too. Worst of both worlds (again): far too late to stop the spread! :evil:


I wouldn't say it failed - it's aim was to reverse the spread and prevent a flood of patients to the NHS, and that it did. Might have solved one problem and created 10 more in doing so though..

I do sometimes wonder if the government are asking the scientists how to stop covid and acting on the answer, rather than asking how to minimise the impact of covid whilst still maintaining as much normality as possible, which would (IMHO) elicit a different answer.

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352318

Postby mark88man » October 31st, 2020, 8:51 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:So, an immensely damaging measure that's failed once (due to what happened on exit) is to be repeated.

What's that about madness? And news is saying we're to get an announcement here too. Worst of both worlds (again): far too late to stop the spread! :evil:

But is Lockdown as damaging as letting the virus rampage - the problem we have today is not because we had lockdown, but because we stopped lockdown without having done anything else in respect of border control or effective track and trace.

The lockdown was pretty effective if you compare the graphs of infection etc before and afterwards - so tell me what is more damaging to the economy strict measures to control a highly contagious virus, or pretending that it can be ignored and will go away

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352323

Postby odysseus2000 » October 31st, 2020, 9:33 pm

mark88man wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:So, an immensely damaging measure that's failed once (due to what happened on exit) is to be repeated.

What's that about madness? And news is saying we're to get an announcement here too. Worst of both worlds (again): far too late to stop the spread! :evil:

But is Lockdown as damaging as letting the virus rampage - the problem we have today is not because we had lockdown, but because we stopped lockdown without having done anything else in respect of border control or effective track and trace.

The lockdown was pretty effective if you compare the graphs of infection etc before and afterwards - so tell me what is more damaging to the economy strict measures to control a highly contagious virus, or pretending that it can be ignored and will go away


The problem is that we do not know how much of the fall was lockdown and how much was better weather. Also we don't know much about how the virus is mutating.

There are lots of variables and to try & say one is dominant makes no scientific sense.

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352371

Postby NeilW » November 1st, 2020, 4:04 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Also we don't know much about how the virus is mutating.


We do. It's a coronavirus. They don't mutate very much - certainly not anywhere near as often as flu viruses.

New variants really just help identify how the network spreads the infection - for example, the latest "Spanish" variant that is doing the rounds clearly maps to people going on holiday to Spain and returning home.

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352392

Postby odysseus2000 » November 1st, 2020, 9:22 am

According to the FT, the Spanish variant is very different to the original virus:



But she emphasised that 20A.EU1 was unlike any version of Sars-Cov-2 — the virus that causes Covid-19 — she had previously come across. “I’ve not seen any variant with this sort of dynamic for as long as I’ve been looking at genomic sequences of coronavirus in Europe,” she said.


https://www.ft.com/content/2782655a-044 ... 4e67ead110

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352394

Postby odysseus2000 » November 1st, 2020, 9:35 am

This is a very technical paper from Nature that discuss the many measured mutations of the Covid virus:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352398

Postby mc2fool » November 1st, 2020, 9:48 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Also we don't know much about how the virus is mutating.

Yes we do. Nice graphics of the evolutionary relationships and genomic epidemiology at https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352401

Postby odysseus2000 » November 1st, 2020, 9:57 am

mc2fool wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Also we don't know much about how the virus is mutating.

Yes we do. Nice graphics of the evolutionary relationships and genomic epidemiology at https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global


There is a huge difference between reality and nice computer models. As the authors note:

Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.

Anyone with a spread sheet program can create beautiful and smooth looking graphs, whether they mean anything is much more difficult to know.

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Re: France to Lockdown Throughout the Country

#352404

Postby mc2fool » November 1st, 2020, 10:11 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Anyone with a spread sheet program can create beautiful and smooth looking graphs

The graphs are, of course, just a visualisation. There's 170,000 genomic sequences that are the data behind them. https://www.gisaid.org/


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