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Concerns about China and Taiwan

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richfool
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Concerns about China and Taiwan

#384161

Postby richfool » February 6th, 2021, 1:06 pm

I'm becoming concerned over possible implications of China's intentions regarding Taiwan, particularly in view of the fact I have significant exposure to both countries through my investment trust holdings, which include: PHI, JAGI and SOI.

Whilst researching the subject, I came across this video, which may be of interest:

https://youtu.be/VkuNWDG3yNM

anon155742
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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#384267

Postby anon155742 » February 6th, 2021, 6:29 pm

China has made its intention regarding Taiwan since 1949, so its nothing new.

Taiwan has its Samson option with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation. If it was taken then global tech manufacturers would be sent back a generation as they all use TSMC chips - Samsung, Apple etc. The West and a lot of the Asian tigers would likely act.

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#384279

Postby odysseus2000 » February 6th, 2021, 7:09 pm

richfool wrote:I'm becoming concerned over possible implications of China's intentions regarding Taiwan, particularly in view of the fact I have significant exposure to both countries through my investment trust holdings, which include: PHI, JAGI and SOI.

Whilst researching the subject, I came across this video, which may be of interest:

https://youtu.be/VkuNWDG3yNM


New US President, new test of resolve.

Regards,

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#384373

Postby Leif » February 7th, 2021, 9:51 am

China is becoming more and more assertive. They have scared away oil extractors and others from the South China Seas by military force. They claim Taiwan, and most of the South China Sea, and have broken agreements over Hong Kong. I reckon they are gradually nibbling away at their surroundings, getting away with as much as they can. We are letting them take Hong Kong, and commit cultural genocide against Uighurs because we need their goods.

I only hope the West has plans to deal with an invasion of Taiwan, or a full annexation of the South China Seas.

If anyone doubts this, go view Chinese government funded videos on YouTube and read the comments. The comments are full of posts from CCP members, they are extreme and warlike. They say ‘whitey’, or the American, is a liar, a cheat, a thief, a crook, a murderer, commits genocide and so on. Now the really odd thing is that YouTube allows this racist content. Post a criticism of Black Lives Matters, based on fact, and your post will vanish in seconds. There’s also lots of extreme anti semitism but that’s another story. But the real worry is that this extreme anti western racism is backed and encouraged by the CCP. And of course the Chinese people are fed lies by state controlled media with no access to western social media or news.

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#450988

Postby richfool » October 18th, 2021, 12:41 pm

Concerns about China- property and bonds and possible affects on the region:

https://youtu.be/dA2NzERV9s0

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451007

Postby Dod101 » October 18th, 2021, 1:45 pm

Leif wrote:China is becoming more and more assertive. They have scared away oil extractors and others from the South China Seas by military force. They claim Taiwan, and most of the South China Sea, and have broken agreements over Hong Kong. I reckon they are gradually nibbling away at their surroundings, getting away with as much as they can. We are letting them take Hong Kong, and commit cultural genocide against Uighurs because we need their goods.

I only hope the West has plans to deal with an invasion of Taiwan, or a full annexation of the South China Seas.

If anyone doubts this, go view Chinese government funded videos on YouTube and read the comments. The comments are full of posts from CCP members, they are extreme and warlike. They say ‘whitey’, or the American, is a liar, a cheat, a thief, a crook, a murderer, commits genocide and so on. Now the really odd thing is that YouTube allows this racist content. Post a criticism of Black Lives Matters, based on fact, and your post will vanish in seconds. There’s also lots of extreme anti semitism but that’s another story. But the real worry is that this extreme anti western racism is backed and encouraged by the CCP. And of course the Chinese people are fed lies by state controlled media with no access to western social media or news.


We are not letting them 'take' Hong Kong. That deed was done on 1 July 1997. They are though asserting their full authority over HK about 25 years earlier than was in the agreement back then. They would have left it alone but for the very unwise unrest in HK over the last few years as it is not very important for them nowadays.

Not sure what you mean by 'the full annexation of the South China Seas'. There have been territorial disputes about ownership of for instance the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea for many years and China appears to be trying to increase its influence there at the moment. That is nothing new though. As for Taiwan, I doubt that we will see a full scale invasion but there seems likely to be a lot of sabre rattling which is what we seem to have been getting recently.

I would be surprised if the Mainland Chinese are as starved of western news as you seem to imply. China is not North Korea. And the Chinese have always been racially prejudiced so that is nothing new.

Dod

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451024

Postby CliffEdge » October 18th, 2021, 3:22 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Leif wrote:China is becoming more and more assertive. They have scared away oil extractors and others from the South China Seas by military force. They claim Taiwan, and most of the South China Sea, and have broken agreements over Hong Kong. I reckon they are gradually nibbling away at their surroundings, getting away with as much as they can. We are letting them take Hong Kong, and commit cultural genocide against Uighurs because we need their goods.

I only hope the West has plans to deal with an invasion of Taiwan, or a full annexation of the South China Seas.

If anyone doubts this, go view Chinese government funded videos on YouTube and read the comments. The comments are full of posts from CCP members, they are extreme and warlike. They say ‘whitey’, or the American, is a liar, a cheat, a thief, a crook, a murderer, commits genocide and so on. Now the really odd thing is that YouTube allows this racist content. Post a criticism of Black Lives Matters, based on fact, and your post will vanish in seconds. There’s also lots of extreme anti semitism but that’s another story. But the real worry is that this extreme anti western racism is backed and encouraged by the CCP. And of course the Chinese people are fed lies by state controlled media with no access to western social media or news.


We are not letting them 'take' Hong Kong. That deed was done on 1 July 1997. They are though asserting their full authority over HK about 25 years earlier than was in the agreement back then. They would have left it alone but for the very unwise unrest in HK over the last few years as it is not very important for them nowadays.

Not sure what you mean by 'the full annexation of the South China Seas'. There have been territorial disputes about ownership of for instance the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea for many years and China appears to be trying to increase its influence there at the moment. That is nothing new though. As for Taiwan, I doubt that we will see a full scale invasion but there seems likely to be a lot of sabre rattling which is what we seem to have been getting recently.

I would be surprised if the Mainland Chinese are as starved of western news as you seem to imply. China is not North Korea. And the Chinese have always been racially prejudiced so that is nothing new.

Dod


The only non-racist race is the southern English

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451049

Postby PeterGray » October 18th, 2021, 4:54 pm

We are not letting them 'take' Hong Kong. That deed was done on 1 July 1997

Well to be fair it was largely "done" in 1898! When a 99 year lease was signed for the New Territories. It was recognised for a long time that HK was not a viable entity once those were handed back at the end of the lease.

Perfectly true that China has not honoured their part of the handover bargain, but how many ever thought that they would? It was a bit like Johnson signing the NIP, though at least the Chinese kept to it for 25 years. And really the UK has no position from which to object to what happens in HK anymore, other than through normal international diplomacy channels.

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451050

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 18th, 2021, 4:58 pm

If China were to use military might to invade Taiwan they would almost certainly be shooting themselves in their own foot.

The South China Seas are rough and there are only two months of the year when a successful crossing could be made for "invasion" purposes. The Chinese do not have specific troop carriers and would need to use merchant ferries to move troops. There are then, if I recall correctly, only 7 areas where Chinese forces could come ashore and, of course, these have formidable defences. Whilst it's probable that an invasion would succeed there are several deterrents. Chinese losses would be significant. If the invasion didn't succeed quickly there is a chance the US could get involved. The US Taiwan Relations Act does seem to allow Congress the opportunity to provide whatever support to Taiwan it sees fit. The US has not said it will defend Taiwan, but it has not said it won't. Regardless of anything that is being said about China's military numbers they do not have the ability to find themselves locked in an engagement with the US. There is also the need for the Chinese Communist Party to convince the general population that any attack on Taiwan is really necessary. Then China would also have to cope with the economic fallout of such an action. This could be far greater than there military losses.

In recent years many countries have increased their presence in The South China Seas and ensured that a credible deterrent is advertised to the ruling party in China. The deterrent is significantly robust and currently should ensure China does nothing more than rattle its sabre.

AiY

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451054

Postby scrumpyjack » October 18th, 2021, 5:07 pm

Given that the US has already acknowledged that Taiwan is part of China, it would be incredible if any US president were to get the US involved militarily in resisting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They may sell Taiwan the most modern weapon systems but they would not do much else.
Their focus really should be on unwinding US reliance on Taiwan technology, in particular TSMC semiconductors which are way ahead of Intel.

A more sensible Chinese strategy, rather than invasion, would be to build up the Chinese military capability to a level where Taiwan has no hope of successfully resisting (which they seem to be doing) and then persuade Taiwan that reunifying with China would not be that bad and far better than armageddon.

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451057

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 18th, 2021, 5:14 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:If China were to use military might to invade Taiwan they would almost certainly be shooting themselves in their own foot...
Then China would also have to cope with the economic fallout of such an action. This could be far greater than there military losses.

AiY

I hope that's true and agree that there would be severe economic consequences, but the Chinese seem to take a long view of history and may believe that the long term gains outweigh the short term fallout.

Slightly OT, I was surprised, even a little shocked to read that the Chinese launched a hypersonic missile in August:

The Financial Times reported on Saturday that Beijing had launched a nuclear-capable missile in August that circled the Earth at low orbit before narrowly missing its target. Citing multiple sources, the FT claimed the hypersonic missile was carried by a Long March rocket and that the test had been kept under wraps.

The reported launch of a hypersonic missile puzzled some observers in Washington. One US official told the FT: “We have no idea how they did this.” The FT report said Beijing’s progress in the field had “caught US intelligence by surprise”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/18/china-denies-ft-report-hypersonic-missile

RC

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451062

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 18th, 2021, 5:28 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:If China were to use military might to invade Taiwan they would almost certainly be shooting themselves in their own foot...
Then China would also have to cope with the economic fallout of such an action. This could be far greater than there military losses.

AiY

I hope that's true and agree that there would be severe economic consequences, but the Chinese seem to take a long view of history and may believe that the long term gains outweigh the short term fallout.

Slightly OT, I was surprised, even a little shocked to read that the Chinese launched a hypersonic missile in August:

The Financial Times reported on Saturday that Beijing had launched a nuclear-capable missile in August that circled the Earth at low orbit before narrowly missing its target. Citing multiple sources, the FT claimed the hypersonic missile was carried by a Long March rocket and that the test had been kept under wraps.

The reported launch of a hypersonic missile puzzled some observers in Washington. One US official told the FT: “We have no idea how they did this.” The FT report said Beijing’s progress in the field had “caught US intelligence by surprise”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/18/china-denies-ft-report-hypersonic-missile

RC

To the best of my knowledge the claims that China "successfully" launched a hypersonic missile have only been confirmed by ... guess who ... China. However, that aside it should be noted that the USA has medium range nuclear missiles based in Guam which is some 3,000m from many potential Chinese targets. It's hardly surprising, therefore, that China would want to have a deterrence to that threat and a potential hypersonic missile could fill that gap. China has roughly 270 nuclear warheads. America has 6,800.

AiY

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451069

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 18th, 2021, 6:03 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:
ReformedCharacter wrote:
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:If China were to use military might to invade Taiwan they would almost certainly be shooting themselves in their own foot...
Then China would also have to cope with the economic fallout of such an action. This could be far greater than there military losses.

AiY

I hope that's true and agree that there would be severe economic consequences, but the Chinese seem to take a long view of history and may believe that the long term gains outweigh the short term fallout.

Slightly OT, I was surprised, even a little shocked to read that the Chinese launched a hypersonic missile in August:

The Financial Times reported on Saturday that Beijing had launched a nuclear-capable missile in August that circled the Earth at low orbit before narrowly missing its target. Citing multiple sources, the FT claimed the hypersonic missile was carried by a Long March rocket and that the test had been kept under wraps.

The reported launch of a hypersonic missile puzzled some observers in Washington. One US official told the FT: “We have no idea how they did this.” The FT report said Beijing’s progress in the field had “caught US intelligence by surprise”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/18/china-denies-ft-report-hypersonic-missile

RC

To the best of my knowledge the claims that China "successfully" launched a hypersonic missile have only been confirmed by ... guess who ... China. However, that aside it should be noted that the USA has medium range nuclear missiles based in Guam which is some 3,000m from many potential Chinese targets. It's hardly surprising, therefore, that China would want to have a deterrence to that threat and a potential hypersonic missile could fill that gap. China has roughly 270 nuclear warheads. America has 6,800.

AiY

Thanks, the impression I have from the press is that the US announced the missile launch - they surely would have tracked it and that the Chinese are downplaying it. I claim no military knowledge, but I wonder what relevance the US 6,800 v Chinese 270 nuclear warheads really has? Surely 20 warheads would effectively wreck the US and a few more would destroy Europe too? To my limited understanding the issue with hypersonic missiles is their ability to fly low, maneuver and avoid interception which changes the balance of power. I know the US and Russia are developing them too, of course but AFAIK the Chinese launch is the first demonstration of that state of the art development.

RC

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451083

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 18th, 2021, 7:05 pm

Sorry yes it was the US. I think the point about nuclear warheads is that the US defence plan against hypersonic attacks is deterrent. Mutually assured destruction. I don't view what China has done as an aggressive posture. More, if you want a hedge fund against the US developing improved technology that can reliably and consistently shoot down ICBM's. The US and I believe the UK have shot down missiles travelling at 12,000 miles per hour in live fire exercises. Whilst the US can offer no defence against something travelling faster, it, therefore, has to rely on a robust deterrent.

I agree with you that only a few nuclear weapons need to hit their target. But if you know that your own success in hitting your targets effectively removes you from power through an overwhelming response you may think very long and hard before you effectively sign your own death warrant. It's a one way ticket.

AiY

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451095

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 18th, 2021, 7:35 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:The US and I believe the UK have shot down missiles travelling at 12,000 miles per hour in live fire exercises. Whilst the US can offer no defence against something travelling faster, it, therefore, has to rely on a robust deterrent.

AiY

Do you happen to know whether those 12,000 mph missiles were ballistic missiles? I suspect they were. AFAIK a hypersonic missile is one that flies faster than Mach 5 - let's say just under 4,000 mph, or more, so much slower than an IBM. But the advantage that these missiles have is their ability to fly low and maneuver which makes them much harder to detect and intercept than a ballistic missile. I'm no military expert but AFAIK it's 'relatively' easy to hit a missile on a more or less ballistic trajectory because it is 'relatively' easy to predict the course for interception but a missile that can maneuver - like a cruise missile but much bigger and faster is very difficult to intercept.

RC

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451103

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 18th, 2021, 8:04 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:The US and I believe the UK have shot down missiles travelling at 12,000 miles per hour in live fire exercises. Whilst the US can offer no defence against something travelling faster, it, therefore, has to rely on a robust deterrent.

AiY

Do you happen to know whether those 12,000 mph missiles were ballistic missiles? I suspect they were. AFAIK a hypersonic missile is one that flies faster than Mach 5 - let's say just under 4,000 mph, or more, so much slower than an IBM. But the advantage that these missiles have is their ability to fly low and maneuver which makes them much harder to detect and intercept than a ballistic missile. I'm no military expert but AFAIK it's 'relatively' easy to hit a missile on a more or less ballistic trajectory because it is 'relatively' easy to predict the course for interception but a missile that can maneuver - like a cruise missile but much bigger and faster is very difficult to intercept.

RC

Yes they are BM's. I believe the most recent "joint exercise", Exercise Formidable Shield involved one of our Daring Class Destroyers and if I recall correctly (and my memory isn't my best asset) it was at least in part "live fire". A manoeuvrable hypersonic missile does pose a great threat for both sides. The US BMD systems would struggle to identify and shoot down this kind of weapon. I don't suppose India or Japan are sat thinking great time to be near to China. I'm not convinced that there aren't already options available to modify existing defence systems to give some immediate protection from hypersonic missiles. By immediate that's 2-5 years. It's not a game changer and doesn't mean China will over-run the World tomorrow. It's was China's move. Next turn is the US ;)

AiY

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451104

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » October 18th, 2021, 8:10 pm

This is a good article written by a Weapons Analyst (Hobbyist)

How could the US shoot down hypersonic missiles?

AiY

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451143

Postby Dod101 » October 19th, 2021, 12:59 am

scrumpyjack wrote:Given that the US has already acknowledged that Taiwan is part of China, it would be incredible if any US president were to get the US involved militarily in resisting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They may sell Taiwan the most modern weapon systems but they would not do much else.
Their focus really should be on unwinding US reliance on Taiwan technology, in particular TSMC semiconductors which are way ahead of Intel.

A more sensible Chinese strategy, rather than invasion, would be to build up the Chinese military capability to a level where Taiwan has no hope of successfully resisting (which they seem to be doing) and then persuade Taiwan that reunifying with China would not be that bad and far better than armageddon.


The Chinese are nothing if not sensible (or sensitive) to realpolitik. I think we can forget all of AiY's comments in this case. scrumpyjack is I think much nearer the mark. The Chinese look at history in the long term and although some hothead may close in on Taiwan I think it more likely that they will eventually just show them and the world that they might as well join the motherland.

Dod

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451229

Postby tjh290633 » October 19th, 2021, 10:52 am

Dod101 wrote:The Chinese are nothing if not sensible (or sensitive) to realpolitik. I think we can forget all of AiY's comments in this case. scrumpyjack is I think much nearer the mark. The Chinese look at history in the long term and although some hothead may close in on Taiwan I think it more likely that they will eventually just show them and the world that they might as well join the motherland.

Dod

But is the Motherland China or Japan? Our agent in Taiwan was brought up under Japanese rule, although Chinese culture is evident.

Although we must be mindful of Confucius's viw, that 100 years is a short time in politics.

TJH

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Re: Concerns about China and Taiwan

#451253

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 19th, 2021, 11:47 am

tjh290633 wrote:
Although we must be mindful of Confucius's viw, that 100 years is a short time in politics.

TJH

Do you have a reference for that? Or perhaps that came up in a conversation you had with him ;)

But perhaps with equal relevance to the Concerns about China and Taiwan, his Golden Rule:

Never impose on others what you would not choose for yourself.

RC


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