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New world order?

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mikel2
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New world order?

#27172

Postby mikel2 » January 29th, 2017, 1:52 pm

I suppose that is the question but not a question many will be happy to address since none of us know with any certainty what the future holds.

Well it is Sunday and in the absence of much comment on the bigger picture it may be worthwhile trying to make some kind of analysis on the path ahead.

Most of us I would submit are happy to sail along comforted by the thought that our view of the world is so entrenched and well understood that nothing short of an apocalyptic event could cause any major change in direction and anything that occurred outside that perspective would be dealt with by our political masters merely by tweaking the tiller enough to put us back on course.

In this brave new world I am not so sure if many of our political masters know quite where the tiller is or even if they did know its not at all that clear in which direction they would like to proceed since the arrival of President Trump.

Are we now in a post globalised world and riding in a new direction on a road towards a new world order?

I would say so and it looks like a world that is increasingly to be built with the building blocks of the individual nation state at its heart. That seems to be a step back from Globalism with the fading of the nation state; countries are now reasserting their national interests and growing on the back of their own national identity and assets of which they seem to want to take more control of.

There is an odd paradox in that situation though in that both Trump and May, both leaders in the Western world now seem to be committed to a policy of no more acting like the worlds policemen or at least trying not to do that nation building thing in our own image.

It looks like nation states are in the ascendancy and will have to look more towards shaping there own destiny with whatever assets they possess and whilst that has to some extent always been the case the new found and growing wealth across the world will in my view be taking more centre stage.

It all makes for an interesting world ahead.

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Re: New world order?

#27181

Postby ap8889 » January 29th, 2017, 3:01 pm

It's interesting times indeed. The exciting thing is that all options are on the table to deal with our nations problems. We cannot any longer pretend solve the problems of other nations, and we should no longer try, unless sufficient quid pro quo occurs.

Next up after Brexit is foreign aid. The sooner we end the current farrago, the better. I want that money to be spent supporting my neighbors in the UK, not subsidising dictators and Ethiopian girl bands.

Trump has well and truly put the globe on notice that he doesn't give a fig about maintaining good relations with beggar states filled with native hostility to Americans. It is glorious to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth as he makes plain that you only get to visit Rome if you intend to do as the Romans do.

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Re: New world order?

#27279

Postby odysseus2000 » January 29th, 2017, 9:22 pm


Mikel2 wrote:

It looks like nation states are in the ascendancy and will have to look more towards shaping there own destiny with whatever assets they possess and whilst that has to some extent always been the case the new found and growing wealth across the world will in my view be taking more centre stage.


Let us assume that Trump gets his way. Lots of manufacturing comes back to the US & US tariffs keep lots of foreign goods out of the US.

Seems rather similar to the actions taken in the 1930's as a way to protect national jobs. It didn't work too well though. Why will this time be different?

Regards,

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Re: New world order?

#27286

Postby gryffron » January 29th, 2017, 9:40 pm

mikel2 wrote:in that both Trump and May, both leaders in the Western world now seem to be committed to a policy of no more acting like the worlds policemen

Already looks like that was just another of the big lies.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-raid-kill ... 53092.html

odysseus2000 wrote:Seems rather similar to the actions taken in the 1930's as a way to protect national jobs. It didn't work too well though. Why will this time be different?

How many global, or even significantly international companies were there in the 1930s? Ford maybe? Any more? Now there are thousands of big international corporations with big vested interests. Though no doubt they will find ways around the national rules - as they have cheerfully done for the last 70 years.

gryff

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Re: New world order?

#27290

Postby ap8889 » January 29th, 2017, 9:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:

Mikel2 wrote:

It looks like nation states are in the ascendancy and will have to look more towards shaping there own destiny with whatever assets they possess and whilst that has to some extent always been the case the new found and growing wealth across the world will in my view be taking more centre stage.


Let us assume that Trump gets his way. Lots of manufacturing comes back to the US & US tariffs keep lots of foreign goods out of the US.

Seems rather similar to the actions taken in the 1930's as a way to protect national jobs. It didn't work too well though. Why will this time be different?

Regards,


I don't know, America certainly prospered ultimately. Who is to say that Smoot and Hawley were mistaken, given the economic successes that happened subsequently.

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Re: New world order?

#27386

Postby woolly » January 30th, 2017, 10:54 am

Too bad that virtually all of the major problems facing us are planetary or at the very least transnational in scope - climate change, mass extinction, soil loss and general environmental degradation, not to mention increasing nuclear proliferation, migration and refugee problems that will dwarf the current situation on Europe's borders, famine, obesity, antibiotic resistance, etc etc.

Under this "new world order" are we seriously expected to be so self-deluded that we can simply say "these are not my business"? If you lack the mental capacity to grasp the concept that the whole of humanity is absolutely interlinked and interdependent, not only with other humans but with our infinitely precious planet as a whole, then frankly you've no business being anywhere near the levers of power and would be better off managing a warehouse or some other simple, orderly and finite system.

We seem to be witnessing a massive failure in human development terms, in that the current "world order" has failed to establish the conditions under which the greatest possible number of people are able to expand their worldview sufficiently widely to understand just how interdependent we all are. The resurgence of the nation state and the unwelcome regression to strongman politics is not progress, and should strike fear in us all...

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Re: New world order?

#27414

Postby odysseus2000 » January 30th, 2017, 12:04 pm

Wholly wrote:
We seem to be witnessing a massive failure in human development terms, in that the current "world order" has failed to establish the conditions under which the greatest possible number of people are able to expand their worldview sufficiently widely to understand just how interdependent we all are. The resurgence of the nation state and the unwelcome regression to strongman politics is not progress, and should strike fear in us all...


One can argue that the previous international model became too complacent & too out of touch with the plebeians. Once the then ruling elite failed to address this situation it was, although I didn't see it at the time, inevitable that democracy would replace them with something hostile to the previous model.

It will be interesting to see how this focus on the nation state with the potential to increase prices & inflation as jobs move to politically favoured homelands & away from the cheapest manufacturer will go down with the plebeians.

Regards,

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#27422

Postby mikel2 » January 30th, 2017, 12:10 pm

Hello ody,


>>>It looks like nation states are in the ascendancy and will have to look more towards shaping there own destiny with whatever assets they possess and whilst that has to some extent always been the case the new found and growing wealth across the world will in my view be taking more centre stage.<<<<
_____________________


>>>Let us assume that Trump gets his way. Lots of manufacturing comes back to the US & US tariffs keep lots of foreign goods out of the US.

Seems rather similar to the actions taken in the 1930's as a way to protect national jobs. It didn't work too well though. Why will this time be different?<<
___________________


It is good to look back to make historical comparisons, I like history but those historical times should be seen in the right historical context.

It has to be different this time for a host of reasons not least that a great deal of the world was so backward and poverty stricken then with much of it still under colonial rule. In 1930 there was no television and things like radio and telephones were a limited asset even in the so called civilised world. Consumer goods were only relevant to those that had the money to consume and much of the world did not have much money or perhaps more importantly even the means to acquire that money.

Even recent developments illustrate that they do now and they also have the means of spreading that wealth on to numbers of people that truly make the mind boggle. Mobile phones and payment transfers for example have help transform the way much of the African continent does business bringing wealth to parts that only Heineken beer could reach.:0).

A lot more people will be wanting a slice of the action together with the newfound wealth of the world and I believe it will bring more of a responsibility on to governments to make sure they get it rather than encourage the development of more kleptocracy's

I found a small snippet in the papers the other day quite revealing.

It seems the Nigerian government seized control of an offshore oilfield from Shell whilst it investigates alleged corruption.
That oil field was believed to contain nine billion barrels of oil.
I don't think they would have done that in the 1930's.

The global economics of the world are changing quite rapidly in my view.

Regards

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Re: New world order?

#27460

Postby odysseus2000 » January 30th, 2017, 1:17 pm

Mikel2 wrote

It has to be different this time for a host of reasons not least that a great deal of the world was so backward and poverty stricken then with much of it still under colonial rule. In 1930 there was no television and things like radio and telephones were a limited asset even in the so called civilised world. Consumer goods were only relevant to those that had the money to consume and much of the world did not have much money or perhaps more importantly even the means to acquire that money.


Yes, but if you suddenly close the markets that these new found manufacturers were selling to do you not create similar situations to the depression when e.g India suddenly stopped buying Lancashire cotton & all the Lancashire mills shut? Sure there was demand elsewhere, but not enough for all the then cotton makers especially with tariffs such that the whole industry collapsed.

Regards,

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Re: New world order?

#27959

Postby youfoolishboy » January 31st, 2017, 7:29 pm

What an interesting thread I find myself agreeing with posters, from TMF days, I would normally disagree with!
My view is this the world has changed because the politicians used the globalisation card to buy more time in power in the West, lots of cheap consumer tat made people feel rich who then voted these useless self serving politicians back in for the 'economic miracle' they performed. Now however the voters are noticing the down side of outsourcing manufacturing...no jobs for the unskilled and semi skilled and even the professional classes are beginning to notice work moving too. So the voters rightly decide to bring the work home thing is its too late they are all fat, lazy and are paid too much and won’t do the work though they think they will. A very pointed story of a few weeks ago was Carrier air con manufacturers in America. They were about to build a new plant in Mexico in steps Donald with a carrot and a big stick and gets a deal going to keep them in the good ole USA sounds good but if you read Carrier’s plans they are going to automate the plant in the US and get rid of the workers as the workers have no loyalty and are less productive and a lot more expensive than Mexicans but if they are going to get 30% tariffs slapped on them they will keep costs low by getting in machines, more expensive than a Mexican but not as expensive as 30% tarrifs. This is what is going to happen in the West as we repatriate jobs, they are going to disappear think of the farming jobs picking crops in season, no Brit will do these jobs stop migrants doing them and you will get automation at a slightly higher cost but at least the work is done, of course home produced food will rise in price but protectionism will save them but at the cost of inflation.
We are going into very interesting times where many people are very confidently expressing in the media they know what is going to happen and they will make it all right, all I know is that I know a few things but there are massive consequences I am missing as there are too many variables, its going to be a roller coaster ride my advice is keep your powder dry and mind open as there is always profit in chaos.

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Re: New world order?

#28085

Postby tjh290633 » February 1st, 2017, 11:03 am

A long time ago I was sent to the USA to see why their operatives could look after 14 units, while ours could only manage 8. I did a fairly intensive study and concluded that it was simply down to the pace of work. The British workers simply moved more slowly from one unit to another, and also tended the change operation more slowly. Not by a great amount, but enough to make the difference.

It could be down to workers' attitudes to their work, better layout of equipment, stricter discipline, whatever, but there was nothing short of wielding a whip which would have brought the British team up to the US level of productivity.

Resistance to change, possibly unionsation, worker-managment relations, the work ethic, historic background, all can play a part. I think similar considerations apply to German workers and British workers. possibly also to immigrants versus native workers, as in some agricultural work. Working under protest, as it were, compared with wanting to work to better oneself financially.

TJH

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#29368

Postby mikel2 » February 6th, 2017, 1:40 pm

tjh290633 wrote:A long time ago I was sent to the USA to see why their operatives could look after 14 units, while ours could only manage 8. I did a fairly intensive study and concluded that it was simply down to the pace of work. The British workers simply moved more slowly from one unit to another, and also tended the change operation more slowly. Not by a great amount, but enough to make the difference.It could be down to workers' attitudes to their work, better layout of equipment, stricter discipline, whatever, but there was nothing short of wielding a whip which would have brought the British team up to the US level of productivity.Resistance to change, possibly unionsation, worker-managment relations, the work ethic, historic background, all can play a part.





There may just be other factors other than 'the pace of work' effecting the overall production capability of British factories of the past which may be missing from the overall scenario.

For example a long time ago, late 60's I think, I used to have long chats with my then brother in law Ronny who worked as an engineer fitter at GEC in Trafford park an engineering company where at one time there were 30,000 people working under one roof, probable why at one time it was known as 'the big house'.
Weinstock had not long been chairman and they had about £2 billion in the bank, ( quite a lot of money at the time) apparently so legend has it to help fight off any possible takeover. The city were apparently keen to get their hands on the company which they eventually succeeded in so doing and the company went into a nether world.


Back to Ronny, who was at the time working on the blades of a 12 foot diaphragm, part of a huge electric generator destined for export and an underground location somewhere in Texas.
This particular day the son of the customer in Texas had come to the works to look and see how their order was progressing.

“what you doing up there son”, this American visitor with Texan boots and a strong Texan drawl shouted to Ronny. The Texan was one of a group who were showing him around the factory.

“I'm filing off the excess weld” replied Ronny.

“With a bastard file?-- My grand pappy would have used one but haven't any of you guys heard
of air tools”

Blank faces all round but within two weeks the factory had an influx of air tools with a multitude of bits of all shapes and sizes.
The new century had at last dawned but unfortunately the factory like many other British factories was already doomed and part of the problem was that very little money was being allocated into tooling and the development of new tooling, in a word the future.

In short the UK was in the grip of the asset strippers and British industry was already being exported big style and the lack of motivation of British workers may have been something of a red herring.

We as a country were destined to become an economy driven mainly by banking and financial services and some of us did vey well out of the change.


Regards

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#32865

Postby mikel2 » February 19th, 2017, 4:01 pm

There are many aspects of life that will always remain a complete mystery to me; the future and ideas about how it is expected to perform given our overall economic circumstances is one such aspect of life that never ceases to amaze me for its huge diversity of meaning, intention and much more.

The new world order can be seen in many lights with probably many shades of grey and even pinks thrown in for good measure but a new buzz word appears to be emerging which I had not come across before which may eventually become a thankful gift to Mr Trump in his efforts to return the world to what many would regard as a more sustainable reality.

Recycling is being taken to a new level in what is so called; 'The circular economy', a sort of recycling on stilts with what appears to be backing by a lot of grants available across Europe.

Bio-bean takes used coffee grounds which it collects from coffee shops and turns them the into what could be termed as up market logs for burning on barbecues, apparently they burn hotter.

The 26 year old boss of Bio-bean reckons They already have annual revenue of £7.5 million and it looks like there are grants available of around £271 billion across Europe for similar 'circular economy' enterprises.

“Wake up and smell the rewards from recycling”

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j ... 8319,d.bGs


Its true, turning coffee grounds in to fuel is just one way to put Britain's waste to profitable use and there may be several million more even more enlightened ideas but really apart from the question as to the need for a government grant to enable such a questionable exercise, is this the way to drive an economy forward ?

Apparently discarded bread crusts are the next target market.

Just makes me want to give Donald another hug.

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Re: New world order?

#32905

Postby tjh290633 » February 19th, 2017, 6:05 pm

Composting can take care of a lot of that, including coffee grounds, shredded paper and breadcrusts, although the latter might be better fed to wildlife.

TJH

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#33527

Postby mikel2 » February 21st, 2017, 6:14 pm

There must be some people that have been completely miffed by the potentially world changing political and social events that have occurred over the past few months, some not so and some with a much clearer understanding of the whys and wherefores that help to make some kind of sense to recent events which have defied normal political analysis.

There is an article in today's The Times which goes some way to throwing some light on to the reasons for this sea change in Western affairs and have to say that I am almost in total agreement with every word.

The article centres around a documentary by Trevor Phillips to be put out on Thursday night at 9pm which surely should be worth watching considering that for daring to question multiculturalism he 'was accused of being a fellow travellorof the BNP.'


“Political correctness kick-started populism”

“For decades, left wing ideologies silenced dissenters –but now there is welcome backlash”

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j ... qHRksju1lw

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Re: New world order?

#33623

Postby odysseus2000 » February 22nd, 2017, 12:17 am

Mikel2
There must be some people that have been completely miffed by the potentially world changing political and social events that have occurred over the past few months, some not so and some with a much clearer understanding of the whys and wherefores that help to make some kind of sense to recent events which have defied normal political analysis.


Here are some issues.

All of this analysis is hindsight viewing, finding causes for what has happened is the stock in trade for the media, useless for investors.

We do not know how the plebeians will take to these policies. It may be they accept rising prices as a unavoidable consequence of the desire to bring production back home, or they may not.

They may find immigration restrictions on racial/religeous groups acceptable or they may not.

They might find the values of the leading politicians as good and right or they may not.

The executives in say the UK & the US may get their policies through or they may not.

Etc etc

We are in the midst of changes, the consequences of which have not yet reached the plebeians and until a few years have elapsed we won't know how the new policies will be received.

This may be the start of long term changes or if may be a small short blip that is rejected by the voters.

To access what the likely reaction will be we need to study the consequences of the changes in the plebeians pocket money for such forces are fundamental to voting in elections and assuming democracy reigns will determine the future.

Regards,

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#33784

Postby mikel2 » February 22nd, 2017, 4:55 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Here are some issues.All of this analysis is hindsight viewing, finding causes for what has happened is the stock in trade for the media, useless for investors.







I would think most if not all analysis was firmly in the realms of hindsight viewing and hardly think finding the causes for what has happened could be restricted to the media and certainly not useless analysis for investors.

Understanding how the future may or may not develop is heavily reliant on having an acute understanding of the past and the present

I would also imagine most if not all investors of whatever shape or size would wish to have a clearer understanding of how the future may pan out so it looks very much like finding the causes for what has happened is likely to be very high on the priority list for most investors for some time yet to come.

Have to say do not share your views.

regards

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Re: New world order?

#33989

Postby odysseus2000 » February 23rd, 2017, 1:25 pm


Mikel2


I would also imagine most if not all investors of whatever shape or size would wish to have a clearer understanding of how the future may pan out so it looks very much like finding the causes for what has happened is likely to be very high on the priority list for most investors for some time yet to come.


We willl have to agree to disagree.

Me. I am looking forward as to what these changes will bring & trying to determine how to make money off them & more importantly how not to get hurt financially.

What some media pundit dreams up as a reason for the changes is mildly interesting, but very few if any called the changes, even after Brexit, so why should I think their post analysis will be anymore useful?

My own view remains that this is a swing from one ideology to the other, as much like the 19th century swings between Disraeli & Gladstone, rather than some new evolutionary development that will last indefinitely. Sure I can see Trump winning again in 4 years, but he will have to achieve something. If all the folk he motivated by their dissatisfactions get to feeling he has sold them down the swanne he could be a one termer. Meanwhile the previous political elite are scheming to undo things & put things back to how they were. It maybe that Le Penne has enough momentum anyhow & you have played the previous elections well so I am inclined to think she is a likely winner, but I am not confident enough to bet on her or against her.

Things will, in my humble opinion, be decided by how things go & although it's early days, the frictional forces in the US against change are proving to be a trouble.

Regards,

mikel2
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Re: New world order?

#34085

Postby mikel2 » February 23rd, 2017, 8:51 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:What some media pundit dreams up as a reason for the changes is mildly interesting, but very few if any called the changes, even after Brexit, so why should I think their post analysis will be anymore useful?




You do not have to think their post analysis is any more useful and of course few do call the changes but then, with very great respect your view like mine, in the greater scheme of things hardly matters since what we are dealing with here is the wisdom of the crowd and this is what the writer of that particular article was trying to convey. The crowd have hit back and have clearly given up there position of passivity.

I wholeheartedly agree with her and her reasons which are in my view soundly based.


Regards

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Re: New world order?

#34406

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 25th, 2017, 11:04 am

mikel2 wrote:“Political correctness kick-started populism”

“For decades, left wing ideologies silenced dissenters –but now there is welcome backlash”

Nail. Head. And it's got a long way to go. Let's just hope it can be a shortish period of turmoil rather than something drawn-out over generations. More like the Iranian revolution than the Russian one.

Sadly (but inevitably) the backlash has already thrown out the baby with the bathwater.


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