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Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

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odysseus2000
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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441082

Postby odysseus2000 » September 9th, 2021, 8:31 pm

tjh290633 wrote:There is a theory that they have gone to Tesco or other companies, where driving a delivery van is much more congenial than driving an HGV. Maybe some have become white van men driving for Amazon and the like.

TJH


Most of the folk delivering stuff to me have being doing it for years, no changes. This does not apply to Amazon who I rarely use, but I assume its similar.

I find all of this strange as nothing seems to have changed and yet there are shortages everywhere.

As I understand it a big HGV is about 40 tonnes carrying capacity and needs a special license.

However, on a standard license I believe one can drive a 3.5 tonne van and for anyone with a license before 1997 a 7.5 tonne van.

So roughly about 6 x 7.5 tonne vans is an HGV and 12 (post 1997 licenses) is an HGV equivalent load.

For critical stuff like hospital supplies could not the driverless HGV be replaced as a short term measure with hired vans. This would be more expensive but it would get critical stuff to hospitals. There are hire companies in most towns who would no doubt be thankful for the business.I realise that this requires politicians to think but surely in an emergency some set of critical supplies could be moved like this.

Or am I missing something such as loads being factory set on pallets and the load/unload being too big an overhead or something else?

Regards,

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441098

Postby murraypaul » September 9th, 2021, 9:02 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:So roughly about 6 x 7.5 tonne vans is an HGV and 12 (post 1997 licenses) is an HGV equivalent load.

For critical stuff like hospital supplies could not the driverless HGV be replaced as a short term measure with hired vans. This would be more expensive but it would get critical stuff to hospitals. There are hire companies in most towns who would no doubt be thankful for the business.I realise that this requires politicians to think but surely in an emergency some set of critical supplies could be moved like this.


It would also require 6 or 12 times as many drivers to deliver the same amount of product over the same distance.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441114

Postby odysseus2000 » September 9th, 2021, 9:51 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:So roughly about 6 x 7.5 tonne vans is an HGV and 12 (post 1997 licenses) is an HGV equivalent load.

For critical stuff like hospital supplies could not the driverless HGV be replaced as a short term measure with hired vans. This would be more expensive but it would get critical stuff to hospitals. There are hire companies in most towns who would no doubt be thankful for the business.I realise that this requires politicians to think but surely in an emergency some set of critical supplies could be moved like this.


It would also require 6 or 12 times as many drivers to deliver the same amount of product over the same distance.


Yes, but if there are vital things in short supply, such as hospital stuff, then could not priority stuff be delivered this way. E.g. at my local hospital I am told that only emergency blood tests are possible as their stock of sample holding supplies are nearly exhausted.

This all seems crazy to me. If it was due to covid then after about 14 days most would be able to work again, but somehow there was a sudden collapse in supplies that began about a month ago and still hasn't been resolved.

All these figures of needing 100k or more new HGV goods drivers could make sense for the UK if many HGV drivers were European nationals returning home, but I am seeing reports of shortages all over the place: USA, Europe,.. I am beginning to wonder if all of these reports are false and that only the UK has problems. I can see mechanism that would do that such as above, but a general change like we seem to have seen that began about 30 days ago, based on my local super market I find unexplainable, especially when I didn't see such things during lockdown.

I have no idea what is happening and why. None of the explanations make sense to me and instinct suggests some folk are doing very well out of the suffering and inconvenience that many are experiencing.

There are all manner of conspiracy theories about, such as:

This is all Europe throttling their recent friends in a show of pique over Brexit. This has the support of the fishing industry which has been treated wickedly by Europeans not upholding the spirit of good will between friendly nations in a time of peace, but if so why now?

Various interested parties are using the change in Health Secretary to cripple the NHS and boost the private sector.

There has been a whole sale change in employees attitudes and they have left HGV to go other jobs, but if so what jobs.

The government has created a crisis so that they can later solve it and look good.

Others conspiracy theories get more and more wild, but all of this has the smell of something that will make some folk who are engineering this, or who come up with solutions rich and from a purely selfish perspective I wouldn't mind getting a bit of that cake.

Regards,

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441124

Postby ursaminortaur » September 9th, 2021, 10:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:So roughly about 6 x 7.5 tonne vans is an HGV and 12 (post 1997 licenses) is an HGV equivalent load.

For critical stuff like hospital supplies could not the driverless HGV be replaced as a short term measure with hired vans. This would be more expensive but it would get critical stuff to hospitals. There are hire companies in most towns who would no doubt be thankful for the business.I realise that this requires politicians to think but surely in an emergency some set of critical supplies could be moved like this.


It would also require 6 or 12 times as many drivers to deliver the same amount of product over the same distance.


Yes, but if there are vital things in short supply, such as hospital stuff, then could not priority stuff be delivered this way. E.g. at my local hospital I am told that only emergency blood tests are possible as their stock of sample holding supplies are nearly exhausted.

This all seems crazy to me. If it was due to covid then after about 14 days most would be able to work again, but somehow there was a sudden collapse in supplies that began about a month ago and still hasn't been resolved.

All these figures of needing 100k or more new HGV goods drivers could make sense for the UK if many HGV drivers were European nationals returning home, but I am seeing reports of shortages all over the place: USA, Europe,.. I am beginning to wonder if all of these reports are false and that only the UK has problems. I can see mechanism that would do that such as above, but a general change like we seem to have seen that began about 30 days ago, based on my local super market I find unexplainable, especially when I didn't see such things during lockdown.


Richard North suggests that the HGV driver shortage in the EU is due to recently implemented changes in EU legislation.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-worse-than-anyone-could-possibly-imagine/

The haulier went on to say: “I am actually really pleased this has all come to a head – the big retailers and, by default, the big haulage firms and logistics companies have had it far too easy for far too long when it comes to transport costs”. There is a global driver shortage because of poor treatment, and it’s all becoming apparent.

But then, he said, the match that “blew open” the lid on the lack of European drivers was lit by an EU law change preventing the weekly 45-hour rest requirement being taken in cabs, and imposing a “return-to-base” rule, requiring drivers to return home every four weeks.

This is exactly the problem Pete reported in his piece. Prior to this, some drivers would accept reduced hourly rates in exchange for unlimited hours, but the new rule meant poor rates and treatment “was no longer worth it”.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441136

Postby odysseus2000 » September 9th, 2021, 11:17 pm

ursaminortaur
Richard North suggests that the HGV driver shortage in the EU is due to recently implemented changes in EU legislation.

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/b ... y-imagine/

The haulier went on to say: “I am actually really pleased this has all come to a head – the big retailers and, by default, the big haulage firms and logistics companies have had it far too easy for far too long when it comes to transport costs”. There is a global driver shortage because of poor treatment, and it’s all becoming apparent.

But then, he said, the match that “blew open” the lid on the lack of European drivers was lit by an EU law change preventing the weekly 45-hour rest requirement being taken in cabs, and imposing a “return-to-base” rule, requiring drivers to return home every four weeks.

This is exactly the problem Pete reported in his piece. Prior to this, some drivers would accept reduced hourly rates in exchange for unlimited hours, but the new rule meant poor rates and treatment “was no longer worth it”.


Thank you

That is by far the most reasonable explanation I have seen and it makes sense, explaining why things have suddenly changed.

Regards,

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#441183

Postby PeterGray » September 10th, 2021, 9:43 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
PeterGray wrote:
No surprise if our HGV shortage is worse than most other part of Europe.


Hang on though - if all ours have gone back to Europe, then if Europe are seeing large numbers missing as well, then that means not only have they lost their own - they seem to have lost ours too!

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


UK driver shortages around 76000, EU about 400000. So UK shortage is by population or economy greater than the EU shortage. As I said, it's both, but don't pretend Brexit isn't an issue.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#443993

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2021, 6:35 am

There was an interesting article in the Guardian last week which highlighted that the current gaps in the labour market that are causing many of the consumer-facing issues much of the western world is facing is not just related to wages, but also largely due to the poor working conditions that many of these roles must endure, and that whilst over recent years the consumer has been able to enjoy a 24-hour, 'just in time' manufacturing and delivery system that's been built for the benefit of those consumers and the businesses that supply them, it's been at the awful expense of the bottom-waged employees who have been asked to live their working lives in conditions that have finally reached breaking point -

The empty shelves crisis isn’t just down to Covid and Brexit – it’s been decades in the making -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/17/empty-shelves-covid-brexit-britain-lorry-drivers

These jobs were always going to be the first ones to be walked away from where an ageing workforce came within spitting distance of retirement, and the link I provided in an earlier post highlighted the demographic skew of a global haulage industry that has been so heavily reliant on older drivers over recent years, and alongside that, many of the other types of labour-intensive jobs, often with awful working times and conditions, were also going to be the first to be quit in a COVID situation that's now opened up many other job vacancies that might improve on both of those counts...

So it's not just that we've run out of candidates to take the low pay for these jobs, and if that were only the case then there may be swifter solutions that might only require a financial cost to fix - but we've run out of candidates willing to suffer the awful working conditions that went with those jobs as well, and in large industries that have had scant disregard for fixing *that* side of the problem, then that might actually turn out to be a tougher fix than the financial side of things...

For too long, these types of industry have focussed on squeezing low-paid employees so hard, and asking them to work in such terrible conditions, and for huge numbers of hours that then negatively affect much of their home-lives, that it should come as no surprise when we discover that many of them were just waiting for an opportunity to walk away, and it seems that the conditions have now arrived where they've decided to do so in large enough numbers for us to finally have to sit up and take notice...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444066

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2021, 10:28 am

The empty shelves crisis isn’t just down to Covid and Brexit – it’s been decades in the making -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ry-drivers

These jobs were always going to be the first ones to be walked away from where an ageing workforce came within spitting distance of retirement, and the link I provided in an earlier post highlighted the demographic skew of a global haulage industry that has been so heavily reliant on older drivers over recent years, and alongside that, many of the other types of labour-intensive jobs, often with awful working times and conditions, were also going to be the first to be quit in a COVID situation that's now opened up many other job vacancies that might improve on both of those counts...

So it's not just that we've run out of candidates to take the low pay for these jobs, and if that were only the case then there may be swifter solutions that might only require a financial cost to fix - but we've run out of candidates willing to suffer the awful working conditions that went with those jobs as well, and in large industries that have had scant disregard for fixing *that* side of the problem, then that might actually turn out to be a tougher fix than the financial side of things...

For too long, these types of industry have focussed on squeezing low-paid employees so hard, and asking them to work in such terrible conditions, and for huge numbers of hours that then negatively affect much of their home-lives, that it should come as no surprise when we discover that many of them were just waiting for an opportunity to walk away, and it seems that the conditions have now arrived where they've decided to do so in large enough numbers for us to finally have to sit up and take notice...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


This is all a smoke screen, just some convenient red herrings to cover up the real intention which is to drive up inflation. The introduction of significant changes in the working regulations of HGV good drivers has been done arbitrarily and in big steps to wreck the existing delivery system and ensure that we all face shortages and with shortages comes desperation, and soon we have too much money chasing too few goods.

The poor working conditions of HGV drivers have been known for decades and they could have been addresses slowly in a bit by bit approach, but no they have made the existing model fail to create shortages and make everyones life difficult to create inflation and save the central banks.

Regards,

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444138

Postby GoSeigen » September 21st, 2021, 1:31 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
This is all a smoke screen, just some convenient red herrings to cover up the real intention which is to drive up inflation. The introduction of significant changes in the working regulations of HGV good drivers has been done arbitrarily and in big steps to wreck the existing delivery system and ensure that we all face shortages and with shortages comes desperation, and soon we have too much money chasing too few goods.

The poor working conditions of HGV drivers have been known for decades and they could have been addresses slowly in a bit by bit approach, but no they have made the existing model fail to create shortages and make everyones life difficult to create inflation and save the central banks.



-The real intention of whom?
-"Save the central banks" from what? No one told me CBs were in mortal danger.
-Who made the existing model fail?

Without specifics it's all so much meaningless conspiracy-theory waffle.


GS

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444143

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2021, 2:02 pm

-The real intention of whom?
-"Save the central banks" from what? No one told me CBs were in mortal danger.
-Who made the existing model fail?

Without specifics it's all so much meaningless conspiracy-theory waffle.


GS


Governments have all spent a lot of money and have large debts as a consequence,

If the value of money falls as happens with inflation, the size of these debts decreases in real terms.

Inflation is the standard solution to governments having excessive debt.

Regards,

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444151

Postby murraypaul » September 21st, 2021, 2:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Governments have all spent a lot of money and have large debts as a consequence,


So 'governments' (what, all of them, in their secret meetings?), have deliberately caused a situation where there are shortages of basic goods and supplies. Which going to make their voters very unhappy.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444152

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2021, 2:34 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Governments have all spent a lot of money and have large debts as a consequence,


So 'governments' (what, all of them, in their secret meetings?), have deliberately caused a situation where there are shortages of basic goods and supplies. Which going to make their voters very unhappy.


Yes, they even have a name for it: The Great Reset.

If any one thinks governments care about individuals they are sadly deluded.

Create a world wide trouble and it becomes party political independent, "World wide troubles dear voter, everyone is n the same boat etc"

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444156

Postby murraypaul » September 21st, 2021, 2:48 pm

Tinfoil hat time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55017002
We start with the revival of the baseless conspiracy theory, known as the 'Great Reset', which claims a group of world leaders orchestrated the pandemic to take control of the global economy.

The conspiracy theory has its origins in a genuine plan entitled 'The Great Reset', drawn up by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the organisers of an annual conference for high-profile figures from politics and business. The plan explores how countries might recover from the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The WEF recovery plan has been interpreted as sinister, first by fringe conspiracy theory groups on social media, and then by prominent conservative commentators - prompting tens of thousands of interactions across Facebook and Twitter.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444170

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2021, 3:47 pm

murraypaul wrote:Tinfoil hat time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55017002
We start with the revival of the baseless conspiracy theory, known as the 'Great Reset', which claims a group of world leaders orchestrated the pandemic to take control of the global economy.

The conspiracy theory has its origins in a genuine plan entitled 'The Great Reset', drawn up by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the organisers of an annual conference for high-profile figures from politics and business. The plan explores how countries might recover from the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The WEF recovery plan has been interpreted as sinister, first by fringe conspiracy theory groups on social media, and then by prominent conservative commentators - prompting tens of thousands of interactions across Facebook and Twitter.


If anything Covid delayed the Great Reset, but the whole idea of the Great Reset is to cause inflation and wipe out sovereign debt.

Google what the WEF said about The Great Reset and when.

Nothing that is now playing out should come as a surprise to anyone who has been following the plot of the WEF.

Many many people are going to get screwed by this, especially folk advised to stay in cash and of course the folk at the bottom whose finances will lag the inflation rate.

If you don't believe me or disagree, why am I wrong, what is your alternative explanation?

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444353

Postby murraypaul » September 22nd, 2021, 10:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:If you don't believe me or disagree, why am I wrong, what is your alternative explanation?


For what, the shortage of HGV drivers, which I think was where this nonsense started?

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444357

Postby scrumpyjack » September 22nd, 2021, 10:40 am

I don't subscribe to these absurd conspiracy theories, but governments seem to have agreed that some inflation is needed to encourage economic growth and that 2% is about the right figure. However, like pregnancy, it is difficult to have a 'little bit' of inflation. Some countries (Germany, Switzerland) are serious about not inflating away their currency but others like the UK, Italy and France have always been very incontinent as regards inflation and let it rip because the short term pain of stopping it is too difficult. Like a drunk having another drink to postpone the hangover. Maggie was the only British Prime Minister to make a serious attempt at controlling it, fairly successfully.

Somehow I doubt much has changed and have very little confidence that the UK government will stop it accelerating again.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444367

Postby 1nvest » September 22nd, 2021, 11:05 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
-The real intention of whom?
-"Save the central banks" from what? No one told me CBs were in mortal danger.
-Who made the existing model fail?

Without specifics it's all so much meaningless conspiracy-theory waffle.

GS

Governments have all spent a lot of money and have large debts as a consequence,

If the value of money falls as happens with inflation, the size of these debts decreases in real terms.

Inflation is the standard solution to governments having excessive debt.

Regards,

And/or taxation. 10% inflation, 10% interest rates, 40% taxation -4%/year real loss/decline
OR
1% interest rates, 5% inflation, -4% real loss/decline.

IMO with £2T+ debt levels more likely the Bank of England will keep interest rates low and let inflation run to erode that debt in real terms as that avoids also having to increase taxes.

Standard/classic cycle. For those accumulating declines can be a good thing, declines are more critical for those in drawdown.

A large debt domestically owned isn't a problem. Japan has massive debts but that is largely owed to itself (BoJ buys most of the bonds the treasury issue). BoE printing money, Treasury issuing new/big debts where the BoE buys up most of that debt ... creates a more domestic owned debt situation.

Your investment asset allocation should accommodate such cycles, again for accumulators all-stock is fine as new money might buy into dips. For the retired/drawdown ... well my preference is for three currencies, three assets diversity. UK home, US stock, gold (£/$/global currencies, land/stock/commodity assets). I have kids/heirs, so my intended 'purchases' in 10, 20, whatever years time is to buy (own) some in a house, stocks and gold, so in that respect I've liability matched my personal inflation rate. Along the way some will be drawn/spent and I've liability matched rent (owning a home is like being both landlord and tenant), but some will also be spent on consumer goods/services and the desire/hope is that the combination of assets collectively might offset CPI based inflation. Historically where stocks didn't gold did, or when gold didn't stocks did, such that one or the other may largely be the asset sold/reduced in order to fund consumption/goods/services.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444393

Postby dealtn » September 22nd, 2021, 11:59 am

1nvest wrote:
IMO with £2T+ debt levels more likely the Bank of England will keep interest rates low and let inflation run to erode that debt in real terms as that avoids also having to increase taxes.



It's not the BoE's debt, nor do they control fiscal policy and taxes.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444413

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2021, 12:52 pm

dealtn wrote:
1nvest wrote:
IMO with £2T+ debt levels more likely the Bank of England will keep interest rates low and let inflation run to erode that debt in real terms as that avoids also having to increase taxes.



It's not the BoE's debt, nor do they control fiscal policy and taxes.


BOE claim they do set interest rates:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowled ... government

Whether one believes them is another matter.

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Re: Tax Rises and Inflation : Economics (not Politics)

#444446

Postby TUK020 » September 22nd, 2021, 1:45 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Maggie was the only British Prime Minister to make a serious attempt at controlling it, fairly successfully.

Interesting perspective.
It wasn't her that made the BoE indepemdent and explicitly charged it with keeping inflation under control. Low inflation really started in the late nineties, under Tony Blair, with Gordon Brown as his chancellor.
Later GB debased the terms "prudence" and "invest" and started to let things slip, but the period 1997-2007 was an excellent decade from a view of monetary soundness.


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