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US Treasuries: Trade of the decade to short them?

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odysseus2000
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US Treasuries: Trade of the decade to short them?

#30514

Postby odysseus2000 » February 10th, 2017, 7:42 pm

Over the last decade or so folk have revisited US bonds and described that shorting them will be the trade of the decade. In practice shorting them has been a fast trip to the poor house as shown in this chart of the 20 year etf, tlt:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/830138639363473408

This is the past. Are we now going to see shorting US bonds become the trade of the coming decade?

Interested in what folk think about US bonds and there likely future direction.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: US Treasuries: Trade of the decade to short them?

#31057

Postby odysseus2000 » February 12th, 2017, 8:18 pm

This was a thread on Bert's investor sanctuary, when the short trade was suggested by Hedge fund manager Doug Kass

https://web.archive.org/web/20170211233 ... sort=whole

Kass's article link still works. Anyone who followed his advice got creamed.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: US Treasuries: Trade of the decade to short them?

#45665

Postby odysseus2000 » April 13th, 2017, 1:59 am

When I opened this thread tlt (20 year US treasury etf) closed around $120, 12April2017, it closed around $123.

Most of the bond bears who claimed short tlt was the trade of the decade at many times during the last decade are no longer heard much.

If the last non farm payroll is not revised up a lot, it will be difficult for the Fed to raise & still say they are data dependent.

Regards,


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