Technology future forecasting

[TUK020]

William Webb's blog here on evaluating where we are versus his 2017 10 year forecast is well worth a read.
Met him some time back when he was Technical Director at Ofcom, and was very impressed with his acumen.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/predicti ... SytA%3D%3D

[odysseus2000]

I found this hilarious, a forecaster desperate to suggest nothing has changed in the world and that their very bland predictions are on track despite clear and large macro changes.

He does not focus at all on the change in working from home, does not mention inflation and completely misses the now severe troubles being inflicted on any internet connected systems by Cyber warfare, nor on the massive supply disruption that is still preventing manufacturing as we knew it with all manner of electronic components being difficult to source.

Other areas that he should be considering are the switch from conventional arms to drone swarms, the rise of AI in many currently high skilled business like medicine and the paradigm shifts in these industries and in the transition to electric traction.

Regards,

[TUK020]

It is somewhat communications centric, understandable as this is his area of expertise.

I can understand that he doesn't cover WFH, inflation or supply chain disruptions under "Technology Forecasting".

It is interesting that he does not touch on Electric vehicles, perhaps as he doesn't consider batteries and electric motors as new technology.

He does cover autonomous vehicles, if only to say there has been very little progress. Arguably correct in that assessment.