In the know with Cathie Wood

[dealtn]

Interesting that Cathie seems to have timed the reduced cpi number well. The rally might only be a short term thing, but she now has an opportunity to take some short term profits.

Regards,

Is benefiting from a marginally reduced large loss accurately described as taking a short term profit?

It's all in the timing. Not everybody is sitting on a crypto loss?

You think Cathie Wood (and her followers) aren't "losing" currently?

[odysseus2000]

Interesting that Cathie seems to have timed the reduced cpi number well. The rally might only be a short term thing, but she now has an opportunity to take some short term profits.

Regards,

Is benefiting from a marginally reduced large loss accurately described as taking a short term profit?

It's all in the timing. Not everybody is sitting on a crypto loss?

You think Cathie Wood (and her followers) aren't "losing" currently?

Cathie & her followers have made a Horlicks of their funds & are down big, but their recents buys of coin have been well timed, so long as they exit if the rally fades.

Regards,

[BullDog]

Interesting that Cathie seems to have timed the reduced cpi number well. The rally might only be a short term thing, but she now has an opportunity to take some short term profits.

Regards,

Is benefiting from a marginally reduced large loss accurately described as taking a short term profit?

It's all in the timing. Not everybody is sitting on a crypto loss?

You think Cathie Wood (and her followers) aren't "losing" currently?

Cathie & her followers have made a Horlicks of their funds & are down big, but their recents buys of coin have been well timed, so long as they exit if the rally fades.

Regards,

Exactly. From the numbers shown at the top of The Telegraph business page, I think anyone buying BTC yesterday evening and selling now has made in excess of 10%. How many have done so? No idea.

[odysseus2000]

Bulldog
Exactly. From the numbers shown at the top of The Telegraph business page, I think anyone buying BTC yesterday evening and selling now has made in excess of 10%. How many have done so? No idea.

The folk who bought weekly call options on tech as a lotto on whether the inflation report would be tame have done super well. How long this rally lasts who knows but a lot of money was made today & there may be more upside tomorrow.

As of now we do not know if this is a change of trend or a blip, but it has been clear for a while that leading inflation indicators have been falling & there is only so much gouging that consumers will stomach till demand destruction forces prices down.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Another interesting In the Know, lots of thought provoking ideas:

https://youtu.be/KuU2CoUhBuk

Regards,

[vand]

Is benefiting from a marginally reduced large loss accurately described as taking a short term profit?

It's all in the timing. Not everybody is sitting on a crypto loss?

You think Cathie Wood (and her followers) aren't "losing" currently?

Cathie & her followers have made a Horlicks of their funds & are down big, but their recents buys of coin have been well timed, so long as they exit if the rally fades.

Regards,

Exactly. From the numbers shown at the top of The Telegraph business page, I think anyone buying BTC yesterday evening and selling now has made in excess of 10%. How many have done so? No idea.

Far fewer than those who do the opposite

[vand]

I'm surprised his woman and her awful funds still get any mainstream coverage given how spectacular the blow up has been.

Mind you, I see she's entertaining the spotty teenagers now who are still stupid enough to be dinking the kool aid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M0_Ee2WOVU

[Lootman]

I'm surprised this woman and her awful funds still get any mainstream coverage given how spectacular the blow up has been.

ARKK is below $30 a share today for the first time since forever. That is 81% down from its high of $156 or so a couple of years ago. With the benefit of hindsight the time to have sold was when the Covid vaccines started rolling out.

Tesla is down another 8% today which is a part of it.

At some point these will be a buy. Anyone brave enough yet?

[odysseus2000]

I'm surprised this woman and her awful funds still get any mainstream coverage given how spectacular the blow up has been.

ARKK is below $30 a share today for the first time since forever. That is 81% down from its high of $156 or so a couple of years ago. With the benefit of hindsight the time to have sold was when the Covid vaccines started rolling out.

Tesla is down another 8% today which is a part of it.

At some point these will be a buy. Anyone brave enough yet?

Cathie Wood is becoming more bullish, listing her reasons in the latest “in the know”:

https://youtu.be/MdtCKH2cOqg

Interestingly Tesla had its first up day after a long series of red ones. If her analogy with the 1920’s is right the five innovation themes
she mentions: ai,genes, etc will recovery rapidly, but she got the magnitude of the downside seriously wrong leaving question marks over her analysis & time scales. Has inflation peaked or does she have this wrong?

Very interesting moment in the markets. After the shocks of 18 fold rise in interest rates many are assuming this carries on for a long time. Clearly this may happen, but if the markets get a whiff that the Fed is going pause & then reverse, the stuff that is seen as coming products, what Cathie buys, will explode upwards.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Cathy Wood is becoming increasingly more bullish in her latest In the Know:

https://youtu.be/oOl3U5h_78Q

She makes many interesting and powerful points and the whole 53 minutes is well worth listening to imho.

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

I'm surprised this woman and her awful funds still get any mainstream coverage given how spectacular the blow up has been.

ARKK is below $30 a share today for the first time since forever. That is 81% down from its high of $156 or so a couple of years ago. With the benefit of hindsight the time to have sold was when the Covid vaccines started rolling out.

Tesla is down another 8% today which is a part of it.

At some point these will be a buy. Anyone brave enough yet?

I don't think I'd ever buy ARKK, but with that said, anything in my portfolio whose NPV is based on growth far into the future (precious little these days), won't get topped for a long while, i.e. until we get very low rate and loose monetary conditions back.

Matt

[monabri]

I'm surprised this woman and her awful funds still get any mainstream coverage given how spectacular the blow up has been.

ARKK is below $30 a share today for the first time since forever. That is 81% down from its high of $156 or so a couple of years ago. With the benefit of hindsight the time to have sold was when the Covid vaccines started rolling out.

Tesla is down another 8% today which is a part of it.

At some point these will be a buy. Anyone brave enough yet?

What do I know about ARKK's holdings? Very little. I've heard of Tesla but the rest..? Speculative punts ...can't help thinking " Patient Capital ".

"In the know"....pretentiousness.

[scrumpyjack]

I find it really hard to take seriously the judgement of a hot gospeller

[BullDog]

I listened to the latest ITK video and find her hard work to listen to. She has a very wooden presentation style, I think. I find it difficult to take her seriously since she seems to be presenting guesswork as apparently serious market research. Not for me, I'm afraid.

[odysseus2000]

Interesting that most of the comments are negative. This to me feels like a contrarian buy signal, but does innovation trump the Fed?

The more I study the areas that Cathy Wood is focused on the more the potential looks to be more powerful than the Fed.

In terms of genetics this kind of medicine is extraordinarily powerful:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63859184

In terms of ai anyone who has played with chatGPT is either focused on the things it gets wrong or are amazed at what it can do now & expect it will get a whole lot better. Having ai write software for me or create graphics I need is extraordinarily useful for me.

The electric car phenomenon is something I have followed for a long time. Tesla is now in value territory, has the best balance sheet of any auto with $20b in cash & exciting products and everyone hates it.

In terms of blockchain, it seems to have stabilised & apart from the spectacular fraud has in general behaved as it should despite the huge sell off.

Meanwhile the Fed do not seem to have crested in interest rates raising & there are mixed signals regarding various observable like inflation, employment etc.

Based on all of this I believe innovation is closer to a bottom than many believe & share prices suggest. At some point innovation becomes a huge buy, but we will only know that point when it has passed.

Regards,

[dealtn]

Interesting that most of the comments are negative. This to me feels like a contrarian buy signal, but does innovation trump the Fed?

That would be the same position of mostly negative comments and a resulting contrarian buy signal over the last 18 months or so would it? How did that play out as a strategy?

The electric car phenomenon is something I have followed for a long time. Tesla is now in value territory, has the best balance sheet of any auto with $20b in cash & exciting products and everyone hates it.

Not everyone clearly.

In terms of blockchain, it seems to have stabilised & apart from the spectacular fraud has in general behaved as it should despite the huge sell off.

Not as an investment it hasn't.

Meanwhile the Fed do not seem to have crested in interest rates raising & there are mixed signals regarding various observable like inflation, employment etc.

Just like normal then.

Based on all of this I believe innovation is closer to a bottom than many believe & share prices suggest. At some point innovation becomes a huge buy, but we will only know that point when it has passed.

And yet you consistently seem to tell us that "traders" are able to sell near the top when they read those "magic" sell signals, and similarly buy near the bottom. How do they manage to do it when it is only known when it has passed?

[odysseus2000]

Interesting that most of the comments are negative. This to me feels like a contrarian buy signal, but does innovation trump the Fed?

That would be the same position of mostly negative comments and a resulting contrarian buy signal over the last 18 months or so would it? How did that play out as a strategy?

The electric car phenomenon is something I have followed for a long time. Tesla is now in value territory, has the best balance sheet of any auto with $20b in cash & exciting products and everyone hates it.

Not everyone clearly.

In terms of blockchain, it seems to have stabilised & apart from the spectacular fraud has in general behaved as it should despite the huge sell off.

Not as an investment it hasn't.

Meanwhile the Fed do not seem to have crested in interest rates raising & there are mixed signals regarding various observable like inflation, employment etc.

Just like normal then.

Based on all of this I believe innovation is closer to a bottom than many believe & share prices suggest. At some point innovation becomes a huge buy, but we will only know that point when it has passed.

And yet you consistently seem to tell us that "traders" are able to sell near the top when they read those "magic" sell signals, and similarly buy near the bottom. How do they manage to do it when it is only known when it has passed?

Great questions:

1 Over the last 18 months the entire innovation sector has gone from being a darling of the market to hated, as seen in the share prices. The stories haven't changed, but you can buy them for a lot less. Either the stories are lies or at some point prices recover.

2 Yes, some people like me still like electric cars but I was using rhetorical license, most folk on youtube for example have gone negative. I am no longer seeing the youtube video telling of how high Tesla is going, most of the narrative now is that they are going bust.

3.Bit coin has gone from from 22767 to 16930 in the last 5 months whereas in the previous 9 months it went from 69,000 to 17,000. From a bit coin point of view it has been relatively stable, but the main point is that it hasn't fallen apart or stopped mining operations. Clearly it might, but it has been severely tested and so far is still working.

4. The Fed has gone from a dovish accommodate everyone to a hawkish hurt everyone by raising interest rates 16 fold. This is I believe the largest ever change in interest rates, well beyond what Volker did and can't be called normal.

5. Traders in general do not look at the macro or the stories, they look at prices & news and its short term impact in terms of price action, some only look at price action. In the last 5 months Tesla, for example, has given relentless short signals in the price action with minimal bullish signals. Folk who have played the short side in the common or in options have made a fortune. Had I wanted to I could have done very well, but I am busy with several other projects and don't want to spend the time that trading takes. Price action, if you have discipline and have studied it, will tell you when to enter and when to exit, but it won't tell you the bottom, but who cares, if you know how to enter and how to exit then your are profitable with minimum losses and you will naturally be short when it goes down and long when it goes up.

Hope these answer your questions, but please ask if not.

Regards,

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

But given that we are probably having higher rates and QT for sometime now, I don't feel the need to rush into a contrarian buy on a stock 80% (or whatever) down. If of course I *knew* that CB policy was about to pivot to towards serious monetary accommodation in a big way, very soon, then I'd see things differently. It's for those reasons that I'd be surprised to see much upward sustained price action on ARKK in the near term.

The only stock I hold in CW's ARKK portfolio are NVDA and MRNA. I'm about 60% up on MRNA, and probably in a very small loss position on NVDA. Yes NVDA is tempting to top up right now, but whilst the markets are buying mainly income and value stocks, it just seems pointless weighing in on an NVDA purchase (PE 40-60 I guess) since such a stock could easily go further down with tightening regimes in place, and fears of recession. I don't think that I'm trying to time the market, but deploying my hard earned cash in one of these stocks seems premature right now.

Matt

PS I'm cool about leccy cars, will *eventually* buy one I guess!

[odysseus2000]

But given that we are probably having higher rates and QT for sometime now, I don't feel the need to rush into a contrarian buy on a stock 80% (or whatever) down. If of course I *knew* that CB policy was about to pivot to towards serious monetary accommodation in a big way, very soon, then I'd see things differently. It's for those reasons that I'd be surprised to see much upward sustained price action on ARKK in the near term.

The only stock I hold in CW's ARKK portfolio are NVDA and MRNA. I'm about 60% up on MRNA, and probably in a very small loss position on NVDA. Yes NVDA is tempting to top up right now, but whilst the markets are buying mainly income and value stocks, it just seems pointless weighing in on an NVDA purchase (PE 40-60 I guess) since such a stock could easily go further down with tightening regimes in place, and fears of recession. I don't think that I'm trying to time the market, but deploying my hard earned cash in one of these stocks seems premature right now.

Matt

PS I'm cool about leccy cars, will *eventually* buy one I guess!

Yes, you have to do what you are comfortable with.

Neither I or anyone else has any idea what will happen. Many of the innovation shares are a lot cheaper than they used to be and that has often been a potential good entry, but they may get even cheaper or they may go up or they may do nothing for a long time.

For me I will just look at the price action and use it to guide me, but there are many approaches.

It is all about what works or doesn't work for the individual. If your actions work you can congratulate yourself, if they don't you know what didn't work for you and you can examine what you did and try something else in the future.

Sadly the history of the stock market is that it can be a treacherous place, especially if someone become convinced of some thesis and puts in a lot of capital and then it goes wrong.

Investing small relative to ones capital gives the most flexibility in responding to changing conditions imho. This approach reaches it zenith with options but they require skill and commitment and are not suitable for many.

Regards,

[CliffEdge]

Is it known if any of the arkk innovative holdings employ alien technology?