dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting that most of the comments are negative. This to me feels like a contrarian buy signal, but does innovation trump the Fed?
That would be the same position of mostly negative comments and a resulting contrarian buy signal over the last 18 months or so would it? How did that play out as a strategy?
odysseus2000 wrote:The electric car phenomenon is something I have followed for a long time. Tesla is now in value territory, has the best balance sheet of any auto with $20b in cash & exciting products and everyone hates it.
Not everyone clearly.
odysseus2000 wrote:In terms of blockchain, it seems to have stabilised & apart from the spectacular fraud has in general behaved as it should despite the huge sell off.
Not as an investment it hasn't.
odysseus2000 wrote:Meanwhile the Fed do not seem to have crested in interest rates raising & there are mixed signals regarding various observable like inflation, employment etc.
Just like normal then.
odysseus2000 wrote:Based on all of this I believe innovation is closer to a bottom than many believe & share prices suggest. At some point innovation becomes a huge buy, but we will only know that point when it has passed.
And yet you consistently seem to tell us that "traders" are able to sell near the top when they read those "magic" sell signals, and similarly buy near the bottom. How do they manage to do it when it is only known when it has passed?
Great questions:
1 Over the last 18 months the entire innovation sector has gone from being a darling of the market to hated, as seen in the share prices. The stories haven't changed, but you can buy them for a lot less. Either the stories are lies or at some point prices recover.
2 Yes, some people like me still like electric cars but I was using rhetorical license, most folk on youtube for example have gone negative. I am no longer seeing the youtube video telling of how high Tesla is going, most of the narrative now is that they are going bust.
3.Bit coin has gone from from 22767 to 16930 in the last 5 months whereas in the previous 9 months it went from 69,000 to 17,000. From a bit coin point of view it has been relatively stable, but the main point is that it hasn't fallen apart or stopped mining operations. Clearly it might, but it has been severely tested and so far is still working.
4. The Fed has gone from a dovish accommodate everyone to a hawkish hurt everyone by raising interest rates 16 fold. This is I believe the largest ever change in interest rates, well beyond what Volker did and can't be called normal.
5. Traders in general do not look at the macro or the stories, they look at prices & news and its short term impact in terms of price action, some only look at price action. In the last 5 months Tesla, for example, has given relentless short signals in the price action with minimal bullish signals. Folk who have played the short side in the common or in options have made a fortune. Had I wanted to I could have done very well, but I am busy with several other projects and don't want to spend the time that trading takes. Price action, if you have discipline and have studied it, will tell you when to enter and when to exit, but it won't tell you the bottom, but who cares, if you know how to enter and how to exit then your are profitable with minimum losses and you will naturally be short when it goes down and long when it goes up.
Hope these answer your questions, but please ask if not.
Regards,