Credit Suisse going down?

[odysseus2000]

Kind of wonder what is the real state of Credit Suisse (CS):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63117352

Lots of other stuff all over the internet about CS with the CEO's attempt to calm things not going well.

Insurance costs against CS defaulting on its loans (Credit Default swaps) have apparently shot up, but I don't have a live feed for them:

https://www.ft.com/content/51480b88-9e0 ... 73e4b337a1

Kind of interesting to be seeing this now, although there is likely plenty of pain in the system as it re-rates from ultra low rates to much higher. Should the US Fed keep ratcheting up rates a US housing crisis becomes likely as mortgage rates have gone from around 1% to around 4%+.

Currently US treasuries are paying nearly 4%, so anyone with millions to invest can get $40k per million over the next year with essentially zero risk:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/b ... trycode=bx

This may all blow over or develop into a 2008 style crisis.

Interesting times!

Regards,

[GoSeigen]

This may all blow over or develop into a 2008 style crisis.

Not the remotest chance. Fantasy.

GS

[odysseus2000]

This may all blow over or develop into a 2008 style crisis.

Not the remotest chance. Fantasy.

GS

Which way hasn't the remotest chance & why?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Credit suites apparently seeking capital:

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-10-17/

If this is true Credit Suisse is in big trouble & that means all the banks are too.

Regards,

[Spet0789]

Credit suites apparently seeking capital:

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-10-17/

If this is true Credit Suisse is in big trouble & that means all the banks are too.

Regards,

Why are other banks in big trouble? They all seem to be very profitable. It’s Credit Suisse that can’t get a break (or make a profit).

[dealtn]

Credit suites apparently seeking capital:

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-10-17/

If this is true Credit Suisse is in big trouble & that means all the banks are too.

Regards,

Or, alternatively, they require some capital, aren't in serious trouble, and neither are other banks.

Some do like a selective interpretation and extreme extrapolation.

[odysseus2000]

Credit suites apparently seeking capital:

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-10-17/

If this is true Credit Suisse is in big trouble & that means all the banks are too.

Regards,

Or, alternatively, they require some capital, aren't in serious trouble, and neither are other banks.

Some do like a selective interpretation and extreme extrapolation.

No one knows, but firing a senior banker & looking for cash are not things banks do when all is well.

There is potentially a lot of stress in the system if the US continues to raise rates & uk rates cannot rise due to the large amount of treasuries on the balance sheets of the pension funds. This exists to comply with government legislation to make pension funds more resilient, but there are various derivative trades operated by pension funds which use treasuries as collateral, leading to margin calls at the pension funds if gilts fall,interest rates rise. If there are failures of any bank the counter party risk of hurting other banks is high.

But perhaps this is not realistic & credit Suisse is safe. The problem is that all banking crisis start with a bank looking for more capital & only in time do we forget about it or enter a banking crisis. From the outside it is very difficult to know what is going on.

Anyone on the inside?

Regards,

[dealtn]

But perhaps this is not realistic & credit Suisse is safe. The problem is that all banking crisis start with a bank looking for more capital & only in time do we forget about it or enter a banking crisis. From the outside it is very difficult to know what is going on.

Which maybe true. But it doesn't mean every instance of a bank looking to raise capital leads to a banking crisis. You are aware of "bias" when you make your proclamations here?

[odysseus2000]

But perhaps this is not realistic & credit Suisse is safe. The problem is that all banking crisis start with a bank looking for more capital & only in time do we forget about it or enter a banking crisis. From the outside it is very difficult to know what is going on.

Which maybe true. But it doesn't mean every instance of a bank looking to raise capital leads to a banking crisis. You are aware of "bias" when you make your proclamations here?

Yes, but we are in a stage of transition between a low inflation,low interest rate environment to a high inflation higher interest rate environment.

These kinds of shocks to well established conditions are often the points when bad practice is exposed. As Buffett likes to note, you only find what bathers are wearing when the tide goes out.

Regards,