Reading the tea leaves - Taiwan

[SebsCat]

Because it's not about "face", it's about identity - a far more powerful force. Did the UK liberate the Channel Islands in 1945 to save face, or because we saw them as an indivisible part of the UK? Ditto the Falklands in 1982, or sending troops to Northern Ireland.

Doesn't alter your overall point, but the UK didn't "liberate" the Channel Islands as such, indeed they totally bypassed them when invading Europe. The German forces on Guernsey and Jersey surrendered on May 9th 1945 following Germany's unconditional surrender on the 8th. Those on Alderney didn't surrender until the 16th.

[TUK020]

The German forces on Guernsey and Jersey surrendered on May 9th 1945 following Germany's unconditional surrender on the 8th.

Surrender was signed in the sitting room of the then Bailiff of Jersey, Alexander Coutanche. Been there!

[odysseus2000]

If China attacks Taiwan the immediate market response is likely limit down.

If the conflict goes nuclear with the US and China nuking each other, then stock market collapse is likely the least of our worries as that kind of a scenario could become nuclear world war 1 very quickly: Nato V China + Russian (?) + India (?) + North Korea (?) and the world goes back to the 18th century or earlier. Most electronic technology would be taken out by electro magnetic pules and many crops lost to a global winter. Arms and food stockpiles would be the best investment, but many would perish.

If there is no use of nukes and the US does defend Taiwan, then likely stock markets rocket on the expectation of huge defence budgets and massive inflation and several years of war.

Regards,

[ElCid]

If China attacks Taiwan the immediate market response is likely limit down.

Nato V China + Russian (?) + India (?) + North Korea (?) and the world goes back to the 18th century or earlier. Most electronic technology would be taken out by electro magnetic pules and many crops lost to a global winter.

Regards,

Agree with most of what you say but I suspect that India would not join in. China is India's enemy No. 1. They will wait for the outcome and then may move to recover territory lost in the Indo-Chinese War of 1962. May also try to liberate Tibet and Xinjiang as buffer states (may have to expel Han settlers). But then India has a hostile neighbour to the west that may see this as an opportunity to settle scores....

In fact I agree that we are looking at the very real possibility of Nuclear World War 1 from which there are no winners.