Terrorist offensive in Western nations?

[odysseus2000]

The ugly scenes in the Middle East suggest a very well organized operation by Hamas et al, so well planned & executed that the secret service of Israel looks to have been completely blind sided by the operations, both in terms of the volume of rockets fired & the use of human shields.

Several western governments have declared their allegiance to Israel as expected & this has never led to attacks against these nations. However, there are reports of various well armed & well supported terror cells having come in with the huge surge in illegal immigration. These reports may be fanciful exaggerations or reality.

If there are terror cells poised to act the equity markets are extremely vulnerable as with precision kamikaze drones a small terror group could cause great fear & panic by selectively targeting political, military or energy infra structure such as nuclear power stations.

This is such an obvious danger that serious investors likely have out of the money puts covering their equity exposure in case of such an attack. If such an attack occurs or the security services say such an attack is probable the chance of a serious equity market sell off increases with the corresponding rapid rise should there be no attacks or some minor incidents.

This likely volatility may overhang the markets for months if the conflict drags on or if there is some escalation.

Interesting times!


Regards,

[RockRabbit]

However, there are reports of various well armed & well supported terror cells having come in with the huge surge in illegal immigration. These reports may be fanciful exaggerations or reality.
Regards,

Evidence?

[odysseus2000]

However, there are reports of various well armed & well supported terror cells having come in with the huge surge in illegal immigration. These reports may be fanciful exaggerations or reality.
Regards,

Evidence?

The only real evidence will be if there is an attack.

Israel has just had its Pearl Harbour moment, a massive unprepared for attack.

Will some thing similar happen in Western nations?
I have no idea, there are just vague unsubstantiated rumours, but there is clear evidence of escalating gun crime in Sweden that has caused the Swedes to put troops on the street.

Does some thing similar happen here. We all hope not, but…

Regards,

[1nvest]

However, there are reports of various well armed & well supported terror cells having come in with the huge surge in illegal immigration. These reports may be fanciful exaggerations or reality.
Regards,

Evidence?

The governments primary responsibility is the defence/protection of the citizens, it's for the government to demonstrate that of all of the boat arrivals that none were a returning ISIS or other potential risk to the general population. I've not seen evidence of that having been proven/demonstrated and rightfully the government should resign due to such major failure.

The UN cannot enforce failure to support asylum claims, its a 1950's Geneva Convention rule that has never been enforced. It's in the Sovereign government power to simply state that due to exceptional circumstances it will not follow that rule. Both Labour and Conservatives are demonstrating clear contempt for the safety of citizens (treason).

[RockRabbit]

Evidence?

The only real evidence will be if there is an attack.

Israel has just had its Pearl Harbour moment, a massive unprepared for attack.

Will some thing similar happen in Western nations?
I have no idea, there are just vague unsubstantiated rumours, but there is clear evidence of escalating gun crime in Sweden that has caused the Swedes to put troops on the street.

Does some thing similar happen here. We all hope not, but…

Regards,

So you've gone from "there are reports" to "there are vague unsubstantiated rumours". I really don't think that spreading vague unsubstantiated rumours at a time like this is particularly responsible. Also, linking the "rumours" to gun crime in Sweden (which is related to gang crime largely in relation to drugs dealing) is rather disingenuous IMO.

[SalvorHardin]

IMHO it's highly likely that there will be terrorist attacks, but the effects on stockmarkets will be small. Unfortunately Europe and America have become used to terrorist attacks. I'd expect lone wolves and small groups, rather than a large scale attack that's anything unlike the weekend's Hamas terrorism. But small groups can do a lot of damage; there were only 10 terrorists in the 2008 Mumbai attack.

Europe has had several major terrorist attacks in recent years, notably the Bataclan in Paris, November 2015, the Nice truck bomb in 2016 and the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. I don't recall European stockmarkets taking a bit hit back then.

The extremely porous borders that American, Britain and the EU have been operating in recent years have lead to a huge inflow of military age males, many from countries which are hostile to the West. I expect that quite a few potential terrorists, ISIS members and agents have infiltrated posing as refugees.

Sweden is the most obvious terrorist target, with parts of many cities having been turned into no-go zones for law abiding citizens and are under the contol of various gangster groups. There is an overlap between terrorists and gangsters in many parts of the world and again it doesn't take a leap of the imagination to see a major terrorist attack being launched in Sweden. Most likely IMHO an attack would be something like the Mumbai attacks of 2008, which was shrugged off by the Bombay Stock Exchange as a minor blip (except for hotel shares, see below).

"In Mumbai, markets opened on Friday (Nov. 28, 2008), after just a one-day break–with the tragedy still in progress. A day earlier, markets in Singapore and elsewhere had reacted negatively, with the rupee declining in value. Yet, the Sensex on the Bombay Stock Exchange rose 0.7% on Friday, reaching a two-week peak."
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-economic-cost-of-the-mumbai-tragedy/

I'm more concerned about things escalating in the Middle East, driving up the oil price and cutting international trade through the Suez Canal and the Arabian Gulf. The Israelis are going to go medieval on Hamas and the Gaza Strip; they've already cut off the power, water and food imports to Gaza, so this time bombing them back to the Stone Age might not be just a slogan. Occupation and walling off the Strip off have failed to stop terrorist attacks, so this time I wouldn't be surprised to see the Palestinians being driven out onto the West Bank or into Egypt. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a proxy war for several decades, this might become a hot war. And whilst there isn't much love for Palestine amongst the Arab governments the Arab people are a whole different matter. America has unfinished business with Hezbollah in Lebanon; the arrival of an American aircraft carrier group off the Israeli coast is a potential trigger for escalation.

Given that the authorities tend to plan to fight the last war, if there is an attack using drones it will probably be successful if well financed and co-ordinated given that there won't be sufficient countermeasures in European countries to deal with it (at least in the short term). A friend who has been seriously into recreational use of drones for some years predicted a few days after the Russian invasion that the Ukraine War would see tremendous innovation in drone technology and operations. He's been saying for some years that it's only a matter of time before drones are used to assassinate major political figures in European countries (swarms of cheap and cheerful drones with primitive explosives being flown into political rallies, outdoor meetings, sports events, etc.). He owns shares in several companies with big drone interests (e.g. AeroVironment).

I'm glad that I live in the countryside (there are much jucier targets in the cities). Owning shares in several defence companies and their associated suppliers seems like a good way to proceed (I have Thales, RTX Corporation (formed by the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies) and Parker-Hannifin (big aerospace component supplier)).

[SalvorHardin]

So you've gone from "there are reports" to "there are vague unsubstantiated rumours". I really don't think that spreading vague unsubstantiated rumours at a time like this is particularly responsible. Also, linking the "rumours" to gun crime in Sweden (which is related to gang crime largely in relation to drugs dealing) is rather disingenuous IMO.

This is an investment website. Speculation about possible scenarios and their effects on markets is perfectly acceptable here, particularly on the "Macro and Global Topics" board where this is par for the course (and is almost inevitable).

[GoSeigen]

[...]
I have no idea
[...]

Regards,

So you've gone from "there are reports" to "there are vague unsubstantiated rumours". I really don't think that spreading vague unsubstantiated rumours at a time like this is particularly responsible. Also, linking the "rumours" to gun crime in Sweden (which is related to gang crime largely in relation to drugs dealing) is rather disingenuous IMO.

Similar stuff gets written about UFOs and aliens. At least it's being posted on his own board this time...

And as someone else noted, UFOs landing in the City of London would have very significant effect on the markets so is very much on topic for this august forum.


GS

[terminal7]

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman shares have both jumped by more than 7% today on Wall Street.

T7

ps just seen LMT up now by 8.5% and NOC by 11.3%

[Steveam]

Evidence?

The governments primary responsibility is the defence/protection of the citizens, it's for the government to demonstrate that of all of the boat arrivals that none were a returning ISIS or other potential risk to the general population. I've not seen evidence of that having been proven/demonstrated and rightfully the government should resign due to such major failure.

The UN cannot enforce failure to support asylum claims, its a 1950's Geneva Convention rule that has never been enforced. It's in the Sovereign government power to simply state that due to exceptional circumstances it will not follow that rule. Both Labour and Conservatives are demonstrating clear contempt for the safety of citizens (treason).

An absurd premise leading to an absurd conclusion.

[Lootman]

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman shares have both jumped by more than 7% today on Wall Street.

T7

ps just seen LMT up now by 8.5% and NOC by 11.3%

Yes, I went over-weight in them when Ukraine happened, plus General Dynamics (GD) and Raytheon (RTN).

I love the smell of napalm in the morning

[odysseus2000]

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman shares have both jumped by more than 7% today on Wall Street.

T7

ps just seen LMT up now by 8.5% and NOC by 11.3%

Yes, I went over-weight in them when Ukraine happened, plus General Dynamics (GD) and Raytheon (RTN).

I love the smell of napalm in the morning

I wonder how US munitions factories are placed to give Israel all that it may want given the extensive supply to Ukraine & the need to keep extensive stocks in Taiwan, South Korea & various NATO countries fearful of Russia.

I imagine that folk in these military supply business are making a shed load, but whether much of this goes to shareholders is unclear. Sales will be high, but often cost of sales also tends to be high, such that margins don’t seem to react as one might expect. There was a similar phenomenon with many of the medical supply business during Covid.

Or perhaps I am becoming too cynical.


Regards,

[terminal7]

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman shares have both jumped by more than 7% today on Wall Street.

T7

ps just seen LMT up now by 8.5% and NOC by 11.3%

Yes, I went over-weight in them when Ukraine happened, plus General Dynamics (GD) and Raytheon (RTN).

I love the smell of napalm in the morning

As you well know Lieutenant Kilgore, LMT's SP took quite a big hit last month. This increase doesn't even make up for that.

T7

[Lootman]

Yes, I went over-weight in them when Ukraine happened, plus General Dynamics (GD) and Raytheon (RTN).

I love the smell of napalm in the morning

As you well know Lieutenant Kilgore, LMT's SP took quite a big hit last month. This increase doesn't even make up for that.

I know but I am still up over double on it, and more on some of the other names.

You cannot really go broke betting on war.

[SalvorHardin]

It has kicked off in Brussels. Two Swedes were killed in the centre about an hour ago by a man with an AK-47.

There's video online; he pulls up on a moped wearing an orange jacket and starts shooting. Chases the victims then comes back and finishes one off. Whoever filmed it had advance notice of the attack.

You can easily find it on Twitter; search for Belgium shooting. There's video of the man afterwards taking from what looks like inside a car. Apparantly he says that he's a member of ISIS and it was to avenge Muslims, so the authorities will probably say there was no motive.

[PeterGray]

And in Illinois. Musilm child killed and mother injured in knife attack.

But I don't see either as a "terrorist offensive". Both attacks carried out by individuals, probably with mental issues.

It's almost certainly, and sadly, true that we will see more of those sorts of attacks following the attacks in Israel and the response in Gaza. But I remain hopeful that it will remain an escalation of those sorts of attacks, rather than an "offensive". Probably what unfolds in Gaza over the next weeks will have a big effect on that happening, or not.

[servodude]

And in Illinois. Musilm child killed and mother injured in knife attack.

But I don't see either as a "terrorist offensive". Both attacks carried out by individuals, probably with mental issues.
.

Difference is really only in motive - and it's probably subtle enough to not make any really practical difference at a time like this.
In that it doesn't really matter how one might feel as a Muslim that the American chap stabbed them to death because they were Muslim versus because he wanted to terrify any Muslim per se.

[odysseus2000]

There seem to be a number of issues that complicate all of this & make it far from the normal Israel-Palestine clash, as though Hamas has created its own military schools with graduates who have put together a coordinated offensive.

Has Hamas deliberately provoked Israel having set up a large maze of under explosives designed to destroy tanks & infantry?

Has Hamas chosen to start an offensive when US military supplies are limited due to having sent surplus to Ukraine?

Has Hamas set up enough terror cells that they can cripple US, Uk, et al supporters of Israel responses by for example assassinating politicians?

Maybe none of these things have been done and nothing much will happen, but if they have the potential for miscalculation and a major war has increased. If equity markets begin to sense that some thing new is happening they will likely sell off till things become clearer.

Regards,