Obama care survives

[odysseus2000]

Interesting whether the failure of Trump's health care, see e.g. Paul Ryan's press conference:

http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/03/24/h ... ill-pulled

will have a negative of positive effect on the US markets come Monday.

Much of the media tone is that this is a stake through the heart of Trump, that the rest of his policies are now doomed etc.

Is this true and will the end, at least for the moment, of Trump-care lead to a rally in biotech which has been weak?

It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday given the move down and the small bounce back to resistance of many US equities.

Difficult to call for me, but we should get some steer on market interpretations by looking at the index on Monday. Markets feel vulnerable but I am well aware that vulnerable feeling markets can be a trap for the bears.

Regards,

[Raptor]

My take is it should be good for the pharma companies, not just the US ones. Will keep an eye out on that one as "big" holder of GSK.

The next milestone will be his "tax" changes, if they fail then I wonder how long he will be around or if he will just give up. Time will tell.

Raptor.

[77ss]

Much of the media tone is that this is a stake through the heart of Trump, that the rest of his policies are now doomed etc.


Regards,

I suspect that this is an over-reaction. Just because one ill-thought out policy failed, satisfying neither right nor left of his own party, does not mean that others will be equally unsuccessful.

Perhaps Trump and his entourage might even learn a lesson or two from this fiasco.

[PeterGray]

Perhaps Trump and his entourage might even learn a lesson or two from this fiasco.

Anything is possible, but I find the concept of Trump learning from a mistake as a difficult one to get my head around!

I agree that any suggestion that this is a stake through the heart of the Trump presidency is an overreaction.

However, he came to power with a number of promises that a lot would change almost overnight. So far that hasn't happened and he has discovered that the President does not have the power of an autocratic dictator, that there are a wide range of checks and balances that by and large work in the US.

What's happened so far must weaken him - both in terms of how he is seen by some of his supporters and, more importantly in the short term, his authority with Republican lawmakers. That could make future legislation even more difficult than it might have been for him.

Can he really learn to compromise and negotiate with the houses and the judiciary to get things done? That would seem totally at odds with his character. Or will he become a lame duck president who makes a lot of noise, but accomplishes little?

If the latter then hopes of a short term boost to sectors of the US economy may prove misplaced.

[vagrantbrain]

What's happened so far must weaken him - both in terms of how he is seen by some of his supporters and, more importantly in the short term, his authority with Republican lawmakers. That could make future legislation even more difficult than it might have been for him.

Certainly some of the alt-right who formed the core of his support are now beginning to lose patience with him and see him as just another politician. Not surprising really with the muslim immigration ban failing, the mexico wall being watered down, Hillary not in jail, and now obamacare staying there can't be many more of his key campaign pledges left. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a coup later this year, assuming he doesn't spit the dummy first and just quit.

[staffordian]

He was strangely subdued in public after the humiliation of having to withdraw his healthcare bill. I suspect he doesn't know how to deal with rebuffs, having always been able to bully people into supporting his point of view when in business. But I'd love to have been a fly on the wall in the Oval office where I'm sure he would have thrown his toys out of the pram and blamed everyone but himself for his failure to live up to his boast of being the only one who could do the deal.

Having now decided he has had enough of playing the healthcare game, he has shelved it and moved on to tax cuts. I suspect he is on to a more sure fire winner here, as from what I can see, there is more Republicans unity on this issue, so maybe he will actually be able to achieve something on this pledge.

However, according to what I've read, the tax changes aren't likely to come before Congress for several months, so I wonder how he will occupy his time between now and then. He surely can't spend all of that time on Twitter...

[Kantwebefriends]

Good news for the owners and shareholders of all the crony capitalists, cartels and monopolies that constitute American "health care".

Perhaps bad news for the insurers - but I have no idea how Ryan's bill was going to deal with them. Maybe they'll cope by just continuing to withdraw from the Obamacare exchanges. You can't make a living from selling insurance when you are obliged to take on the certain losses associated with people with pre-existing conditions - that's not insurance, it's rigging the game.