Astra Zeneca Covid vaccine labeled defective, consequences?

[odysseus2000]

According to this Black Belt Barrister video (8 mins 19):

https://youtu.be/k21Yna5g6aU?si=iu4x5DTNneHL-Oms

the Covid vaccine made by Astra Zeneca has been labelled defective and there are already some cases going through trial, that are expected to take over a year, with some settlements apparently already made under the governments vaccine protection law.

It is difficult for me to get some kind of handle on this. I do know one lady who had the vaccine and lost the use of her legs with a paralysis that spread upwards, but which was thankfully reversed in hospital, but others have not been so fortunate and accordingly to the Black Belt Barrister there are few people who do not know some one who has had a negative reaction from this vaccine.

As the legislation is written and as I understand it, the victims, assuming there are no legal challenges to the "defective" label of this drug will be covered by the government up to the ceiling of I believe £130k.

If we take a putative figure of 1% of those given the vaccine have a bad reaction and 2 billion doses of the vaccine were approved for use in 170 countries:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... roval.html

This would suggest a possible legal claims of 2e9 x .01 = 20 million.

How many of the other nations have government mandates is unknown to me, but I doubt it is many. If we take a putative figure of £100k per victim including legal fees etc the likely pay out could reach £2 million which seems a very small figure for a business the size of Astra Zeneca with a market cap of $197b:

https://companiesmarketcap.com/astrazeneca/marketcap/

If my crude estimates are right there seems no danger to AstraZeneca at all, but perhaps I am missing things here and there are other issues that are important. Any comments would be helpful.

Regards,

[murraypaul]

the Covid vaccine made by Astra Zeneca has been labelled defective

The lawsuits are claiming it is defective.

That is not the same as it having been found to be defective.

[monabri]

I thought it would be the UK taxpayer on the hook for any potential issues such as this?

[DrFfybes]

and accordingly to the Black Belt Barrister there are few people who do not know some one who has had a negative reaction from this vaccine.

I must be one of the few, unless he is talking abou the 24-36 hour grotty feeling experienced by many recipients (although in our case we were fine with the AZ one). I think there will need to be a very large bandwagon for the claim culture 'victims' to jump on for this, however the manufacturer will (should) be covered by the Govt.

I know a few people who claim to know people who were affected by the vaccine, but none of them seem to know which vaccine, and are all fairly anecdotal like the plasterer who's mate's gran died a couple of months after vaccination, and someone else who's sister had vomiting and diarrhea afterwards and was quite ill, although it turned out her unvaccinated 7 year old also had the same symptoms "so the vaccine must be really dangerous".

f we take a putative figure of 1% of those given the vaccine have a bad reaction and 2 billion doses of the vaccine were approved for use in 170 countries:

Where do you get the 1% figure from? I've seen various reports varying between 5 in a million up to 35%

Paul

[odysseus2000]

and accordingly to the Black Belt Barrister there are few people who do not know some one who has had a negative reaction from this vaccine.

I must be one of the few, unless he is talking abou the 24-36 hour grotty feeling experienced by many recipients (although in our case we were fine with the AZ one). I think there will need to be a very large bandwagon for the claim culture 'victims' to jump on for this, however the manufacturer will (should) be covered by the Govt.

I know a few people who claim to know people who were affected by the vaccine, but none of them seem to know which vaccine, and are all fairly anecdotal like the plasterer who's mate's gran died a couple of months after vaccination, and someone else who's sister had vomiting and diarrhea afterwards and was quite ill, although it turned out her unvaccinated 7 year old also had the same symptoms "so the vaccine must be really dangerous".

f we take a putative figure of 1% of those given the vaccine have a bad reaction and 2 billion doses of the vaccine were approved for use in 170 countries:

Where do you get the 1% figure from? I've seen various reports varying between 5 in a million up to 35%

Paul

As I understand the Black Belt Barrister, the label "defective" is in unpublished court cases and it is not clear from what he says as to who has made the statement. It seems unlikely to be Astra Zeneca, so possibly an expert witness or just the language used by the barrister with out any scientific validity. I don't know and I was only trying to get some feel as to whether this may lead to a buying opportunity or there is serious substance to all of this.

The 1% figure was a putative number to give some kind of upper limit on the potential litigants that that AZ may face based on the Black Belt assertion that most people know someone who had serious consequences after taking the vaccine. The real figure may be a lot lower, but in assessing potential; risk a 1% number is just putative to the potential upper limit.

From what I gather from my back of the envelope calculation there is no danger to AZ and the cases look potentially so small in number, although terrible for victims, so as to have no substantial impact on AZ which is the answer to the question I was trying to find as to potential impact on AZ.

From the replies it seems the impact is far smaller than my back of the envelope number and is unlikely to create any worthwhile actionable trades.

Regards,

[murraypaul]

The 1% figure was a putative number to give some kind of upper limit on the potential litigants that that AZ may face based on the Black Belt assertion that most people know someone who had serious consequences after taking the vaccine.

But that assertion, if it was made, is obvious nonsense.

A reaction to the vaccine, yes, like many vaccines. I felt far worse after my yellow fever jab, for example.

But serious consequences? Most people know someone who had serious consequences? Yet somehow no one has noticed until now?

These are just claims made by the people suing AZ. Of course they are going to make their claims as strong as possible, and try to stir up as much public sentiment as possible. That doesn't make them true.

[PeterGray]

I am also one of the apparent "few" who knows no one who had a significant adverse reaction (and so I'm pretty sure is everyone I know). Yes many of us had a bit of a sore arm, and one or two felt off colour for a day, but that wasn't unexpected.

Given the world is awash with people claiming all sorts of nonense about covid vaccinations, without any real evidence to back them up, and we are not being offered any here now I'd be very very sceprical of such claims. Even more so as this is presumably from a lawyer hoping to make big bucks if he can create any sort of case.

[Watis]

Me too.

I, and everyone I know who has had the vaccinations when called, experienced the expected sore arm and feeling rough for a day (at least you know it's working). None has had any further adverse reaction.

Again, I - and most people I know - have had at least one bout of Covid. Each case has resulted in mild to moderate cold symptoms that take about a week to shake off.

However, I know two people who caught Covid having refused the opportunity to have the vaccinations. One died, the other was in intensive care for weeks and now has long Covid.

So, it's clear to me that the vaccinations work. I accept that some people will experience a strong negative reaction to the vaccine (as with any medicine) - but I suspect the proportion is vanishingly small.

Watis

[servodude]

I accept that some people will experience a strong negative reaction to the vaccine (as with any medicine) - but I suspect the proportion is vanishingly small.

Certainly much smaller than the cohort with a negative emotional reaction to the vaccines

[CliffEdge]

The vaccines were and are miracle drugs. Perhaps there is a God?

Ah well. No.

[chas49]

Moderator Message:
Wider discussion of vaccines and COVID is off-topic for this *Investors' Roundtable* board! (chas49)

[odysseus2000]

A little more colour on the potential size of the claims:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67370454

According to this there have been 148 payouts under the government vaccine insurance scheme with 144 being for claims after a patient took Astra’s vaccine.

As I understand the new legal action the current litigation is designed to get around government legislation that protected the supplier from claims against them.


The litigant argues that the product was defective so as to use the consumer protection act with the aim of getting a much larger payout than the £120,000 under the scheme, which for a career ending injury is obviously far from what is needed.

Dunno, if there are just 144 claimants & each was to get say £10m each, then that is 148x1e7 = £1.48 billion which begins to look a lot more significant for Astra, although still manageable. However, if the vaccine is determined to be defective this opens up Astra to claims from around the world & that could hurt them. It is an interesting situation to potentially watch for trading opportunities.


Regards,

[Ashfordian]

Based on the Coroners report I suspect this is one of the 144 that has been paid out by the Government scheme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

No idea if they are involved in this follow up litigation.

However the loss of Covid gravy train is going to have a way larger impact on AZ than any litigation around the vaccine. They will just counter claim off the Government or something similar. If the contract leaks are correct, all the liability is with the Government and I'm sure they will waste as much court time as possible in testing this. Unless it is thrown out I don't see a final outcome occurring this decade.

[odysseus2000]

Based on the Coroners report I suspect this is one of the 144 that has been paid out by the Government scheme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

No idea if they are involved in this follow up litigation.

However the loss of Covid gravy train is going to have a way larger impact on AZ than any litigation around the vaccine. They will just counter claim off the Government or something similar. If the contract leaks are correct, all the liability is with the Government and I'm sure they will waste as much court time as possible in testing this. Unless it is thrown out I don't see a final outcome occurring this decade.

Tragic case, so young to die after doing all the recommended things.

I seem to be getting daily txt about vaccinations being available and recommended, so perhaps the gravy train is far from off the rails.

In principle the messenger RNA technology has a lot of promise but it is difficult for me to see how the reported symptoms of blood clots and also apparently miscarriages were not found earlier. I don't understand the variances in the population that can lead to these small but tragic clotting process. To my simple mind there are questions as to whether AZ did a scientifically appropriate number of studies or rushed into production with full support of the politicians before full testing was done. Probably we will never find out, unless there is a whistleblower who comes forwards with evidence of inappropriate testing or knowledge and cover up, more likely the tragic but mercifully small for entirely unexpected reasons will become the mantra of the defence and for all I know this may be true, but if so we will have to treat mRNA medicines with extreme caution else the public will likely take against them all. Small numbers of unexpected deaths are fine for policy makers arguments, but for folk who can choose they are a worry.

The whole field of genomics looks to have extraordinary potential with already some spectacular cures for previously untreatable illness and big profits for pharma, so it is in their best interests to be open and honest, but I doubt their lawyers like that idea as it will hurt lawyer remuneration.

Regards,

[Ashfordian]

Based on the Coroners report I suspect this is one of the 144 that has been paid out by the Government scheme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

No idea if they are involved in this follow up litigation.

However the loss of Covid gravy train is going to have a way larger impact on AZ than any litigation around the vaccine. They will just counter claim off the Government or something similar. If the contract leaks are correct, all the liability is with the Government and I'm sure they will waste as much court time as possible in testing this. Unless it is thrown out I don't see a final outcome occurring this decade.

Tragic case, so young to die after doing all the recommended things.

I seem to be getting daily txt about vaccinations being available and recommended, so perhaps the gravy train is far from off the rails.

In principle the messenger RNA technology has a lot of promise but it is difficult for me to see how the reported symptoms of blood clots and also apparently miscarriages were not found earlier. I don't understand the variances in the population that can lead to these small but tragic clotting process. To my simple mind there are questions as to whether AZ did a scientifically appropriate number of studies or rushed into production with full support of the politicians before full testing was done. Probably we will never find out, unless there is a whistleblower who comes forwards with evidence of inappropriate testing or knowledge and cover up, more likely the tragic but mercifully small for entirely unexpected reasons will become the mantra of the defence and for all I know this may be true, but if so we will have to treat mRNA medicines with extreme caution else the public will likely take against them all. Small numbers of unexpected deaths are fine for policy makers arguments, but for folk who can choose they are a worry.

The whole field of genomics looks to have extraordinary potential with already some spectacular cures for previously untreatable illness and big profits for pharma, so it is in their best interests to be open and honest, but I doubt their lawyers like that idea as it will hurt lawyer remuneration.

Regards,

Yes, it is a tragic case. Although I don't think it would have made the news if she was just Lisa from the village bakery, and not a BBC radio presenter.

Also, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is not an mRNA vaccine. Those vaccines were from Moderna and Pfizer, the latter of which warned recently the gravy train is drying up - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ab-slumps/

[daveh]

And it was never going to be a gravy train for AZN as they were only the manufacturer. The vaccine technology was Oxford University's and the deal was that initially AZN would not profit by it, the vaccine would be supplied at cost. There has been nothing beyond initially as the Oxford/AZN vaccine has fallen out of favour to the mRNA base vaccines.

[odysseus2000]

Thank you for all the super useful corrections and clarifications. Great to get a better picture and understanding of this area as my knowledge is very poor and needs upgrading.

Regards,