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Korea

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odysseus2000
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Re: Korea

#82715

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2017, 1:21 pm

Korea is again today's news.

The rhetoric & sudden consensus of action of trade restrictions with North Korea, now including Chinese banks no longer dealing with North Korea looks like an international plan to either generate a coup within North Korea or cause the North Korean regime to react aggressively & give the US an excuse to attack them.

However, so far we have extreme market complacency with no fear. The only justification I can see for this is that folk believe NK will back down.

Kinda wonder if the effects of the sanctions will be to cause the NK regime to decide it either fights now or is slowly strangled.

I don't feel that complacent, but perhaps I am missing something.

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TUK020
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Re: Korea

#82726

Postby TUK020 » September 22nd, 2017, 1:55 pm

Probably behind the scenes manoeuvring to get Saudi to offer sanctuary to Kim Fat One and his household retinue of sex slaves.

odysseus2000
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Re: Korea

#83414

Postby odysseus2000 » September 25th, 2017, 6:19 pm

Current thinking on this is that there are 4 scenarios.

1 (Best) some one tells the leaders to shut up, there are talks & some compromise is agreed, markets get the odd wobble but otherwise don't care.

2 US or China creates a coup, North Korean regime over thrown, lots of bad things happen short term then everything settles into a unified peninsula, markets rally

3 North Korea shoots at an allie, US aircraft, or US land. US responds with overwhelming fire power, but things deteriorate into a long ground war. Markets tank on news, rally on US attack, then are subdued as the land war drags on & Putin & Chinese take advantage or North Korean regime collapses easily & markets rally

4 US, launches pre emptive strike while markets are shut & markets stay closed till US reopens them weeks later, only to tank as war drags on etc as in 3 or rally if it doesn't.

The way the markets are reacting suggests they think some kind of 1 happens.

Dunno, wish it would all resolve peacefully, but fearful that there is a lot of complacency in market participants.

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thebarns
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Re: Korea

#83452

Postby thebarns » September 25th, 2017, 7:58 pm

Odysseus,

There are some really in depth articles on the internet postulating on what might happen.

It is indeed scary stuff, reminds me of my teenage angst worrying about US and Russia about to let fly at each other in the late 70s/early 80s.

The difference this time is I think that we have two pretty unpredictable leaders, not guaranteed to think something out rationally.

It just seems to be building and building such that something is about to happen by accident or design, probably more by accident and within days or weeks rather than months.

A time for caution in the markets.


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