General Election

[odysseus2000]

Kind of disappointed to have another election which may well be hijacked to become another Brexit vote. Seems like a recipe for more volatility at least short term when I was hoping for more stability going forwards.

Thinking of the situation it seems that the Bremain factors have disrupted things well, forcing May to have this new vote. Alternatively from May's position she likely sees this as a way of cementing her leadership and giving the UK an even clearer mandate to negotiate Brexit given how the opinion polls now are, but they have been wrong before, remember the Betters paying out on a Hilliary Clinton win.

It will be interesting to see what the markets make of it, but the picture is not clear as we also have the coming French vote and the sabre rattling over Korea as other major influences on investors.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting how the volatility curve as a little short term backwardisation likely brought on by Korea, but otherwise well into contango:

http://vixcentral.com/

Investors are still prepared to pay up for Vix hedges in case of some thing bad happening.

The curve has moved more into contango since May's election address such that currently, no one cares about the UK election.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Although I have not followed the election campaign that closely, the leaflets I have received in the post have polarised. On the one hand one has labour promising this & that, on the other hand conservatives warning how labour could get elected & one must vote to stop them. One pro conservative message this morning warned about Labour reversing Brexit, the sort of message likely, imho, to have folk who hate Brexit rushing out to vote Labour.

A very strange message & then we had PM May refusing to be part of a debate.

So far the equity markets seem relaxed about a May victory, but I begin to wonder if that is complacency before a potential storm if May either stumbles or finds her self with a very tiny majority.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

I know of groups of lifelong Labour voters who want Brexit and will be voting Conservative for the first time ever in their lives

Not a lot of logic in that since both parties are committed to Brexit!

[mswjr]

I know of groups of lifelong Labour voters who want Brexit and will be voting Conservative for the first time ever in their lives

Not a lot of logic in that since both parties are committed to Brexit!

There's a great deal of logic in it.

[GoSeigen]

I know of groups of lifelong Labour voters who want Brexit and will be voting Conservative for the first time ever in their lives

Not a lot of logic in that since both parties are committed to Brexit!

There's a great deal of logic in it.

If there's any logic in it why not explain the reasoning? PeterGrey explained his argument: Labour also supports Brexit so there's no reason to suppose a lifelong Labour voter wanting Brexit would vote Conservative.

What's your reason for claiming they would?


GS

[mswjr]

I know of groups of lifelong Labour voters who want Brexit and will be voting Conservative for the first time ever in their lives

Not a lot of logic in that since both parties are committed to Brexit!

There's a great deal of logic in it.

If there's any logic in it why not explain the reasoning? PeterGrey explained his argument: Labour also supports Brexit so there's no reason to suppose a lifelong Labour voter wanting Brexit would vote Conservative.

What's your reason for claiming they would?


GS

Umm... The logic of choosing who they think best able to navigate a successful brexit.

[ursaminortaur]

Yes Brexit is happening either way. What agreements/terms are formed with the eurozone have long term bearing (decades/century+) and accordingly need to be as sound as possible. Enduring a single parliament of conservatives for a better longer term deal for the UK is seen by many as being the better choice perhaps due to trust/faith that the Tories are the more likely to be better at negotiations and management than a Lab/SNP coalition.

Really - with wibbly wobbly May doing the negotiations ?

[GoSeigen]

Thanks 1nv35t, having been out of the country for some months I'm clearly not thinking about the election as tactically as many. With such possible factors in voters' minds I can't imagine how pollsters hope to get anywhere near forecasting the outcome!

GS

[ursaminortaur]

May doing the negotiations ?

I suspect she'd be more of the figurehead/director. Brexit negotiations/terms are a very important issue and one that I personally feel that the Conservatives would manage far better than could Labour. You only have to look back in time to see the mess that Labour can induce as a guide for the mess they could introduce into such Brexit terms and conditions that the UK will be bound by for decades to come.

Ideally this is one of the rare Parliaments where we'd be better served by collective unity and effort for the best interest of the UK over that of 'internal' political point scoring. Of the available actual choices the Conservatives are more like the Technocrats currently needed.

Sorry have to disagree the Conservative Brexit team of Theresa May, David Davis,Boris Johnson and Liam Fox is woefully weak.
And I don't think she sees herself as a figurehead - she is a control-freak

http://www.politico.eu/article/meet-tea ... eresa-may/

But interviews with officials in Brussels and London, including with senior Conservative MPs, ministers and government aides, point to a different conclusion. May’s appointments reveal a determination to keep control of the process. Instead of handing Brexit to an all-powerful foreign secretary, May has split the role in three, dividing in order to rule.

“The one thing that drives everything for her is that she sees herself as being elected to do a job,” one close aide said of the new prime minister. “She sees it as a duty.”

Since then, May has developed the mantra she hopes will define her premiership: “Brexit means Brexit, and we’re going to make a success of it.”

The meaning of “Brexit means Brexit” may still be unclear, but there can no doubting who will be responsible for making it a success.

Unfortunately the only thing that I can see them getting from the EU is a bad deal and since Theresa keeps saying "no deal is better than a bad deal" I'd be surprised if that isn't what they come away with (of course for some right wingers and UKIP supporters that would be just what they wanted no matter what damage it did to the UK economy). We need a better negotiating team which could actually do deals and deliver something reasonable.

As to your last point, I'd agree with you - what we really need is a Government of National Unity to pursue Brexit which would be able to pick the best ministers from across the whole of Parliament.

[Mapfumo]

would you rather have say David Davis or Diane Abbott at the negotiation table representing the UK.

I'd certainly rather have either of them representing the UK than Liam Fox, who should be nowhere near parliament, let alone in a position of authority. Not sure I'd pick Boris Johnson over any of the Labour hopefuls either.

I hope and expect that the actual negotiations, irrespective of which party wins, will be done by the Sir Humphreys and their EU equivalents, rather than by ministers.

[odysseus2000]

Kind of bemused by all this party political stuff about which lot will do a better job.

Sure at some emotional level one will be able to say that some minister or other did a bad job, but the primary dynamics are connected with geography and trade.

If the politicians in Germany and France wants to punish the UK and do what ever it can to make folk here regret the decision they will do so.

Alternatively if they want a prosperous nation off the coast and good relations, they will offer a deal that does that.

Then the civil servants of both camps will negotiate around and end up with no deal or some deal that no one likes but which is better than no deal.

The politicians will then grandstand to the media and their electors and things will carry on.

More importantly, at least to me, is how the markets react to the election here. Still looks a little complacent to me suggesting they believe May re-eleted with good majority. Fireworks could happen if not and if Corbyn and/or coalition then start to mutter about not wanting to go ahead with Brexit, saying their victory gives them a mandate either for a new referendum or a rejection of the last one. If this happens, not saying it will, then uk equities could react but I am not entirely sure which way, likely down, but perhaps up.

Regards,

[coleyfish]

Anything less than a 50 seat majority will be seen as a slump for the Conservatives.

This may well happen and I for one certainly hope it will.

It has become obvious that this is about Theresa May desperately trying to gain some status that I doubt she can earn.

She is desperate to be Mrs Thatcher but with compassion. She can't she doesn't have the capability and this is where she is making a big mistake.

By turning the entire election into a binary I can do better at negotiating Brexit than Jeremy, she risks alienating people and taking her eye off every other ball in play.

There is a very real chance that this cold be a disastrous election in that she will not achieve the shoe-in landslide she assumed wold happen.

Maybe sufficient numbers of remain voters have decided they just want to get on with it and allow Chairman May to do as she wants, but I sincerely hope not. We need checks and balances on Brexit and we certainly need more policies that serve the greatest number of people rather than the elderly and/ or rich.

Coleyfish

[DiamondEcho]

For the record [per my notes]:
Majority requires 326/650 constituencies
May is currently pre-vote on a majority of +17
Commentators are suggesting that for a 'strong outcome', one that made this snap election worthwhile, and strengthen her arm for BREXIT she needs +50.

There are articles this evening suggesting she's in line for +100, but we'll see.

[odysseus2000]

So the opinion polls were rubbish.

We have gone from a majority government to a position where the DUP may be the happiest party.

If the conservatives & DUP do a deal the consequences for Brexit look like a focus on the Irish border but otherwise little different except any contentious issues will likely be decided by a handful of MPs.

Not a situation to create confidence anywhere & making May's position weak, perhaps bringing on a leadership challenge, but who would want to take the reigns of a weak party needing a coalition to govern?

On the plus side for investors the fall in the £ is good for exporters although slightly inflationary for consumers.

Dunno it's all confused & difficult to fathom. It may all become unworkable quickly bringing on an election, but it is also the DUP's big moment & perhaps they will enjoy many perks to create a stable government going forwards for a few years.

Interested in any investment angles folk have. Personally I am doing nothing much in the UK, the US is super exciting & profitable at the moment and so that is where I am focused.

Regards,

[StepOne]

Didn't quite work out like that in the end!

[flyer61]

Odysseus2000

I would stick with the US. Sterling is going to be up against it for years to come. Given the breath and quality of many American Companies it is indeed a happy hunting ground. I have been replicating Terry Smiths fund, particularly his US picks. Where he has announced new additions eg Smucker and Estee Lauder I have tried to build a meaningful holding. These sort of Companies will provide my pension income. I hope my kids thank me for it. TS (and his small team) are better stock pickers than I will ever be. All this HYP stuff (equities) leaves me cold. Don't mind a bit of HY debt just not the UK HY equities....

Coleyfish......would you please send me the lottery numbers... how accurate were you!

[Mapfumo]

Can anyone suggest Northern Irish construction companies that might expect new contracts to build shiny new roads & other infrastructure in the next couple of months?