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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#129858

Postby odysseus2000 » April 3rd, 2018, 11:30 pm

Don't know the Labour content of specific models, but overall:

Ford employees 202,000

Nissan 137,000

Tesla 37,000

If Tesla can make 250,000 cars with circa 30% of the employees of Nissan, the human content per car must be well down.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#129860

Postby dspp » April 3rd, 2018, 11:37 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Don't know the Labour content of specific models, but overall:

Ford employees 202,000

Nissan 137,000

Tesla 37,000

If Tesla can make 250,000 cars with circa 30% of the employees of Nissan, the human content per car must be well down.

Regards,



Nissan UK workforce is about 5,000 employees, doing 500,000 vehicles per year. You are comparing global workforces and Nissan have an awful lot of production lines and factories. But in both cases it is important to understand the total manhours per car, irrespective of whether in-sourced or out-sourced.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#129863

Postby odysseus2000 » April 3rd, 2018, 11:47 pm

dspp


Nissan UK workforce is about 5,000 employees, doing 500,000 vehicles per year. You are comparing global workforces and Nissan have an awful lot of production lines and factories. But in both cases it is important to understand the total manhours per car, irrespective of whether in-sourced or out-sourced.


Yes, thank you for correcting my mistake.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#130076

Postby odysseus2000 » April 4th, 2018, 11:31 pm

This is video with stills added to the rather poor audio of the last conference call:

https://youtu.be/HTa8sUplsK4

In it Musk says they believe they can get 20-30% more production out of their lines than Toyota can get out of a similar sized facility.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#130106

Postby PeterGray » April 5th, 2018, 9:09 am

In it Musk says they believe they can get 20-30% more production out of their lines than Toyota can get out of a similar sized facility.

That may well be true.

However, while I'm no expert on car production I would have thought that one of the key characteristics is that man hours/car has fallen significantly, and fairly steadily over at least the past few decades. And that new production lines generally have lower human labour requirements than the ones they replace. In that context I suspect a 20-30% in a new line designed and built from the ground up compared to Toyata's average, which will include many lines designed and built years ago, is not anything very special.

Peter

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Re: Musk endeavours

#130203

Postby PeterGray » April 5th, 2018, 4:11 pm

Interesting article here on Muck and Tesla:

http://business.financialpost.com/opini ... e-business

Some may not agree! And I haven't done the research to make a proper judgement, but one statistic popped out at me:

Tesla stock is now valued at US$801,000 per car sold in 2016, compared to $26,000 per BMW sold and $5,000 per GM car sold.

OK, they are growing the rate at which they produce, but by enough to justify that?

Peter

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Re: Musk endeavours

#130275

Postby odysseus2000 » April 5th, 2018, 9:49 pm

Hi Peter,

Thank you for that link which brought a greater and greater smile to my face the more I read of it.

The premise that governments supports industries is correct and the numbers that are quoted look about right for relative valuations in terms of cars sold etc, see e.g.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-val ... art-2017-4

However, where the author goes off on a tangent is in the way he singles out Tesla as being something special and better for his case is where he says that Tesla cars are only playthings for the rich. He then backs up his argument by describing how nuclear power has been a financial disaster (I would agree) but by this stage he has dropped his second argument as saying nuclear power is a play thing for the rich would be hard to argue.

The situation that exists is what democracy has created. Once you give most adults the vote the politicians have to do things to get them to vote for them.

This has included the political funding to develop the road infra structure, lighting and signals, the granting of planning permission for refineries, fuel stations, the insistence that all retail developments had to have good parking, the Beeching cuts of competing rail technology, the ignoring of the carbon dioxide put into the air and for many years the allowance of lead, nitrous oxides and high levels of unburnt hydrocarbon from inter combustion engines …One might also add how the US bailed out GM in the last financial crisis to secure auto workers votes.

Ever since the granting of universal suffrage ,and it began well before, politicians have relentless intervened to support things that they feel the voters will like and such that they will receive the votes.

With electric cars there is a clear belief that voters will like them and will vote for the politicians who help make such things happen creating cleaner air etc.

One can argue about how much Tesla has had, Musk often says it is very little but it is so complicated a subject that few can sensibly quantify it, and one can also argue that Tesla may yet go bankrupt wasting what ever subsidies it has had.

This government funding is what one gets in democracies and one can argue that it is very bad, but all the political parties do it and most industries collect substantial amounts of money one way or the other from the tax payer. I used to know a jewellery seller who was always delighted when ever benefits went up as he knew that he would have folk coming with the extra benefits money to buy.

Sure Tesla has produced luxury cars, but that was always their plan, using the income from these to make a mass market car which they have. If the production estimates for model 3 are right the cost per car will fall rapidly and based on the deposits that Tesla holds there are many many more buyers than even the most optimistic production numbers. With that kind of supply demand one expects the business to sell on a higher multiple than bigger producers who can not grow anything like as fast.

Tesla has never been a traditional widows and orphans stock, but it has been good to a lot of investors and traders both long and short and of course such folk also vote.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#130892

Postby dspp » April 9th, 2018, 12:17 pm

An updated seekingalpha article on Tesla's last set of quarterly numbers
https://seekingalpha.com/article/416122 ... le-numbers

Tesla will likely hit an important milestone in the next few months when it delivers its 200,000th vehicle in the United States. When it hits this mark, the calendar watching begins for the phase out of the $7,500 US Federal EV tax credit. With another three months of estimates in the books from InsideEvs, we can see that Tesla is getting close to the key level.
Image

(*Through Q1 2018. Does not include impact of Roadster deliveries. Source: InsideEvs monthly scorecard)


The way I see it the consumer wins either way. Either Tesla succeed and good quality lower priced EVs are available from Tesla, or Tesla fails but in the meantime causes all the legacy automakers to accelerate their EV programmes.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#132121

Postby odysseus2000 » April 14th, 2018, 10:58 am

Im this video from 9:15 Musk discusses production, notes that the best production lines achieve about 0.2 metres per second which is about tortoise speed, whereas human easy walking speed is about 1 m per second, fast 1.5 m per second. He sees dramatic opportunities to greatly increase production by orders of magnitude & is recruiting computer engineers who are used to making bits of a computer communicate swiftly. This was in 2016, but he has recently wondered if too many robots were used on the model 3 line, so perhaps he is no longer thinking of such large gains, or maybe more experienced into how to go faster. If he can get anywhere near 100 % increase, let alone his more ambitious thoughts he can likely raise margins very strongly & cause serious competition for existing auto makers who would have to follow or be uncompetitive.

https://youtu.be/n6xsjQCxQ9c

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Re: Musk endeavours

#132853

Postby BobbyD » April 17th, 2018, 3:55 pm

Tesla denies Model 3 production line shutdown is safety-related
Plant set to be offline for up to five days with staff having to take vacation time

...

Monday’s shutdown comes amid recurring concerns about safety at Tesla’s facilities, as the company races to catch up with a large backlog of orders for the lower-priced electric vehicle.

...

The Fremont plant’s former lead safety professional, Justine White, told reporters at the non-profit organisation: “Everything took a back seat to production . . . It’s just a matter of time before somebody gets killed.”

...

Nonetheless, Elon Musk, Tesla’s co-founder and chief executive, has admitted to mis-steps in how the facility was set up, by relying too much on automated production robots. 

“Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake,” Mr Musk said on Twitter last week. “To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated.”



- https://www.ft.com/content/509c934a-41e ... 5c97e6fd0b

Tesla has temporarily suspended its Model 3 assembly line as Elon Musk’s electric car firm struggles to deliver on targets.

The company said the move was a planned production pause of up to five days. It is the second time since February that Tesla has halted its production line for the Model 3 at its Fremont, California plant.

...

Car manufacturers typically stop or slow production of new models when ironing out problems with production. Tesla took shortcuts with testing of its production line in order to get to market more quickly, which some experts say have resulted in early manufacturing problems.

Musk recently admitted that “excessive automation” at the Tesla plant had contributed to what he calls “manufacturing hell” and had actually slowed down manufacturing of the crucial mass-market model.

“We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts … And it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing,” Musk told CBS.




- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... automation

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Re: Musk endeavours

#134017

Postby odysseus2000 » April 23rd, 2018, 7:15 am

Electric milres driven & power produced by Tesla:

https://electrek.co/2018/04/22/tesla-fl ... wF8Do5UPPq

Kind of looks revolutionary to me.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135395

Postby BobbyD » April 28th, 2018, 9:46 pm

BobbyD wrote:The wisdom of seeking to work up.through the automation gears starting with level.1 add one and evolving through to a level 5 system on road, whilst advertising future performance based on fitted hardware is questionable and risks poisoning the well for everyone in the sector. At the very least attention needs to be paid to the significant psychological effects which partial automation has, and ways to maximise the effectiveness of safety drivers during on road testing.



...and to shear idiocy

'Autopilot driver' who sat in passenger seat is banned for 18 months
Bhavesh Patel, 39, was spotted beside empty driver’s seat as his Tesla s60 travelled along M1 motorway last year


- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... -18-months

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135437

Postby Itsallaguess » April 29th, 2018, 8:20 am

BobbyD wrote:
...and to shear idiocy

'Autopilot driver' who sat in passenger seat is banned for 18 months

Bhavesh Patel, 39, was spotted beside empty driver’s seat as his Tesla s60 travelled along M1 motorway last year


- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... -18-months


I really do think that with regards to vehicle automation, we're in danger of marvelling at the technological advances so much that we allow ourselves to ignore the huge difficulty in overcoming the human-element that will always limit such advances.

The above guy, who decided to climb into the passenger seat whilst his car rumbled on in auto-pilot mode, is just one example of this, but I really do think that it's going to be a huge hurdle to overcome with regards to the acceptance of this technology.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135513

Postby BobbyD » April 29th, 2018, 12:37 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
I really do think that with regards to vehicle automation, we're in danger of marvelling at the technological advances so much that we allow ourselves to ignore the huge difficulty in overcoming the human-element that will always limit such advances.


As I said further upthread I think the wisdom of trying to evolve from level 1 to level 5'on the road' is severely questionable, and that those companies looking to hit the road at level 4/5 are following a far more responsible path. Tesla in particular, still advertising

Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars
- https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/autopilot

are I think the biggest threat to self-driving technology.

Tesla's overgrown cruise control should not be refereed to as an autopilot, they should make it clear that whilst they believe the cars they sell at the moment come equipped with everything which will ultimately be required for full self driving the cars are not capable of or licensed to self drive and nobody knows what the full technological or legal requirements for self driving will be, and that whilst the potential in the future may be great what they currently supply is not an autopilot but a driving aid akin to cruise control or collision avoidance systems.

The grey area between human and computer control can not be eradicated if for no other rerason than the need for testing but it should be minimised and accurately described, especially in cars sold to consumers.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135617

Postby odysseus2000 » April 29th, 2018, 11:08 pm

BobbyD
Tesla's overgrown cruise control should not be refereed to as an autopilot, they should make it clear that whilst they believe the cars they sell at the moment come equipped with everything which will ultimately be required for full self driving the cars are not capable of or licensed to self drive and nobody knows what the full technological or legal requirements for self driving will be, and that whilst the potential in the future may be great what they currently supply is not an autopilot but a driving aid akin to cruise control or collision avoidance systems.

The grey area between human and computer control can not be eradicated if for no other rerason than the need for testing but it should be minimised and accurately described, especially in cars sold to consumers.


Yes, but there is another dynamic.

When do you decide that safe is safe enough? I.e. what reduction in the chance of being in an auto accident is enough to make a system better than the current human driver system?

You can argue that the very sophisticated and advanced systems that use lots of radars etc are better than e.g. Tesla's system, but at what cost and how much better?

Politicians looking at this have to decide if the current accident rate could be reduced enough by using e.g. a Tesla system to make it worth legalising. If e.g. the simulations say you can reduce the accident figures by 90%, that is a lot of money, lives and injuries saved and it would be hard to refuse it. However, if the simulations say it is only 5% then it would be easy to refuse it.

I guess at some point someone somewhere decides to legalise a Tesla like system for a probation period of maybe 12 months and then every government on the planet compares the previous accident rate to the probation period and makes a decision not on simulations that may be badly off, but on the real data from the probation period.

The dynamic here will be cost and performance. We all recall how Sony Betamax was better than vhs, but vhs was good enough and now both are obsolete.

Politicians in democracies can't wait for perfection. They act in what ever way likely brings them the most votes, knowing that as techonology continues to improve so should accidents reduce, but they have to work in the now with what is available now.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135624

Postby BobbyD » April 30th, 2018, 12:47 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Politicians looking at this have to decide if the current accident rate could be reduced enough by using e.g. a Tesla system to make it worth legalising. If e.g. the simulations say you can reduce the accident figures by 90%, that is a lot of money, lives and injuries saved and it would be hard to refuse it. However, if the simulations say it is only 5% then it would be easy to refuse it.

I guess at some point someone somewhere decides to legalise a Tesla like system for a probation period of maybe 12 months and then every government on the planet compares the previous accident rate to the probation period and makes a decision not on simulations that may be badly off, but on the real data from the probation period.


Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135625

Postby BobbyD » April 30th, 2018, 12:56 am

Tesla Autopilot crisis deepens with loss of third Autopilot boss in 18 months

It is no secret that Tesla's Autopilot project is struggling. Last summer, we covered a report that Tesla was bleeding talent from its Autopilot division. Tesla Autopilot head Sterling Anderson quit Tesla at the end of 2016. His replacement was Chris Lattner, who had previously created the Swift programming language at Apple. But Lattner only lasted six months before departing last June.
Now Lattner's replacement, Jim Keller, is leaving Tesla as well.


- https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/te ... 18-months/

Tesla's advantage lies in electric vehicles, they aren't going to make the break through in autonomous and when the break through is made they'll be able to get it delivered to their factory just like everybody else. If the point of Tesla was to make electric cars a thing it seems strange that they keep getting hung up on things they aren't very good at like self drive and redesigning the manufacture process at the expense of the availability of the technology they are supposed to be championing.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135627

Postby BobbyD » April 30th, 2018, 1:02 am

dspp wrote:The way I see it the consumer wins either way. Either Tesla succeed and good quality lower priced EVs are available from Tesla, or Tesla fails but in the meantime causes all the legacy automakers to accelerate their EV programmes.


I think Dieselgate might have somewhat undermined Tesla's role in the electrification of the car fleet, but Tesla were certainly important in getting the ball rolling.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135628

Postby odysseus2000 » April 30th, 2018, 1:05 am

BobbyD
Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?


Because that is what the data suggests.

The questions are:

Is the data reliable

Is the positive impact going to be big enough to persuade politicians to legalise it.

As I noted before it is a grim business of deciding based on probabilities which system or systems will save the most lives. None of them are likely ever going to be 100% safe.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#135736

Postby BobbyD » April 30th, 2018, 12:16 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?


Because that is what the data suggests.

The questions are:

Is the data reliable

Is the positive impact going to be big enough to persuade politicians to legalise it.

As I noted before it is a grim business of deciding based on probabilities which system or systems will save the most lives. None of them are likely ever going to be 100% safe.

Regards,


The one thing Tesla's autopilot isn't is an autopilot.

Full autonomous, yes, I would expect ultimately to lead to a decent decrease in crashes, injuries, fatalities and congestion but that is level 4/5, Tesla are level 2.

Some manufacturer's currently have drivers in the seat because it is a legal requirement, Tesla is supposed to have drivers in the seat because otherwise the car will drive in to a white van or a concrete separator.


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