Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Tesla out selling other EV in Europe:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-out ... urope/amp/

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla out selling other EV in Europe:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-out ... urope/amp/

Regards,

Wow, around half their US sales in February!

[odysseus2000]

According to Forbes,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsma ... b543017246

Tesla produced in q4 of 2018 86,555 (including 61,394 model 3) and delivered 90,700 vehicles.

According to

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-out ... urope/amp/

Tesla sold 3724 model 3 cars in February, 959 in Germany, 791 Norway.

By 22 March were approaching 3000 sales in Norway, with the possibility that European sales may exceed 10,000.

If Tesla is producing about 5,000 model 3 per week, these data suggest about half of the output is potentially being sold in Europe, with some other as yet unknown amount being sold in China along with US sales.

Are these numbers reliable or are the many other bear articles saying sales are poor correct?

if these numbers are correct the trajectory is for Tesla to become a big business.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Canada announces new $5,000 incentive for electric cars, Tesla vehicles excluded

...

As part of its new budget, the Canadian federal government has announced a new $5,000 incentive for electric cars that cost less than $45,000, however, it excludes Tesla vehicles.
Some Canadian provinces already have EV incentive programs but unlike the US, there has never been a federal program to reduce the cost of electric vehicles.

With the launch of their latest budget, the Canadian government has now announced a new $5,000 incentive program that is not yet completed.

Here’s the current language in the budget:

“To encourage more Canadians to buy zero-emission vehicles, Budget 2019 proposes to provide $300 million over three years, starting in 2019–20, to Transport Canada to introduce a new federal purchase incentive of up to $5,000 for electric battery or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of less than $45,000. Program details to follow.”

The $45,000 cut off point covers vehicles like the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt EV, and Hyundai Ioniq Electric, but all of Tesla’s vehicles are excluded since the base Model 3 starts at $47,000 CAD.

- https://electrek.co/2019/03/19/canada-i ... -excluded/

[Howard]

According to Forbes,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsma ... b543017246

Tesla produced in q4 of 2018 86,555 (including 61,394 model 3) and delivered 90,700 vehicles.

According to

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-out ... urope/amp/

Tesla sold 3724 model 3 cars in February, 959 in Germany, 791 Norway.

By 22 March were approaching 3000 sales in Norway, with the possibility that European sales may exceed 10,000.

If Tesla is producing about 5,000 model 3 per week, these data suggest about half of the output is potentially being sold in Europe, with some other as yet unknown amount being sold in China along with US sales.

Are these numbers reliable or are the many other bear articles saying sales are poor correct?

if these numbers are correct the trajectory is for Tesla to become a big business.

Regards,

Tesla sold 90,700 cars worldwide in Q4 2018.

Inside EVs are confident that Tesla will have produced 75,000 Model 3s in Q1 2019, see

https://insideevs.com/cumulative-tesla- ... -estimate/

So adding production of Model X and Model S, if the Tesla enthusiasts are right Tesla will produce around 90,000 cars in Q1 2019.

But the problem for Tesla is they aren’t selling enough. There are signs that their cars aren’t as popular as supporters suggest.

Tesla sold 16,000 cars in the USA in January and February

Inside EVs also report that Tesla sold 3,700 Model 3s in Europe in February.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-out ... vs-europe/

However, worryingly for Tesla, sales in Germany in March are falling now that the initial enthusiasts have had their cars delivered.

https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/blank/wo ... in-germany

My guess for total sales of all models of new Teslas in Q1 is as follows:

USA and Canada 30,000
Europe 20,000
China 10,000

This estimate of 60k sales could be optimistic, it assumes a huge increase in US sales in March but it is much lower than their Q4 result. If it is correct and the estimate of production is right, then Tesla will have built up a stock of 30,000 finished cars. This will cost them around $900 million in working capital.

And margins must be falling because even in countries like Norway where Teslas and other EVs are heavily subsidised, sales of the more profitable Model S and X have dropped dramatically as Model 3s take over.

Unless Tesla achieves a much higher sales performance, the pressure is on. Despite the claims that Tesla are “invading Europe”, sales of 20,000 cars or less in Q2 onwards would be unimpressive. And sales in the USA may not pick up given the closing down of sales centres.

At these sales levels Tesla won’t be gaining enough market share against other major manufacturers. They are allowing them time to catch up and possibly produce more competitive lower-cost models.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

The situation regarding Tesla sales is very unclear.

In the article I cited it claimed they sold 791 in Norway in Feb, & approaching 3000 in Norway by 22 March.

Yet other articles have said sales are slowing in March.

Musk has urged his workers to greater production.

As I understand it although model 3 is less expensive than S or X, the margins have remained the same at around 20% and if so the profits will depend upon volume of sales, not model mix. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

Very difficult for me to know what is going on.

Regards,

[Howard]

The situation regarding Tesla sales is very unclear.

In the article I cited it claimed they sold 791 in Norway in Feb, & approaching 3000 in Norway by 22 March.

Yet other articles have said sales are slowing in March.

Musk has urged his workers to greater production.

As I understand it although model 3 is less expensive than S or X, the margins have remained the same at around 20% and if so the profits will depend upon volume of sales, not model mix. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

Very difficult for me to know what is going on.

Regards,

I think they have sold 4,636 cars in Norway up to today's date. Of which 3,915 are Model 3s. The site linked below appears to show an accurate record of registrations in Norway.

https://teslastats.no/

This is the most successful market for Tesla in Europe at the moment. The German site I linked to in the post above also looks accurate.

The two big unknowns in Q1 are the March sales figures for the USA and China. We know Tesla are doing all they can to maximise US sales in the final two weeks of March. No doubt the US figures will be known soon and then we will see how many sales have been made in China.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

The trouble about the German site is that all models over Euro60k and those for which no subsidy is claimed are not recorded, adding an uncertainty to the figures for German car sales.

We do know that sales in Norway increased significantly in March, so why would Germany be different?

The performance model was selling for over Euro 60k:

https://electrek.co/2018/12/05/tesla-mo ... configure/

Not sure what the current price is, but if German drivers are buying the performance model and paying over Euro 60k this would not be recorded.

It is hard to be sure what is going on with Tesla sales as there are large uncertainties in many things that may have substantial impacts on the currently reported sales numbers.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Volkswagen is amongst the legacy automakers now most invested in electric vehicles and they now threaten to exit an important automaker lobbying group over their policies regarding electric vehicles.
Automakers have promoted policies to slow down the adoption of electric vehicles through lobbying groups for years.

Most recently, automakers associations have pushed against efforts to increase average fuel economy, which would have forced EVs to be built in higher volume.

Interestingly, several automakers were claiming to be ‘all-in on electric cars’ while indirectly supporting those lobbying efforts.

Now, Volkswagen appears to be recognizing this issue and is pressuring the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA), a powerful lobbying group in Germany, to promote electric vehicles.

- https://electrek.co/2019/03/18/vw-threa ... -policies/

VW 1-0 BMDaimler

The auto industry saw something historic happen this past week in Germany. In a rare act of unity, the leaders of the country’s big three Automakers; Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche, and BMW CEO Harald Krüger, all agreed that the future of German auto is the electric car. Over the next decade, each CEO would be pushing their respective companies to shift and embrace the idea of an electrified fleet.

NO (MORE) COMPROMISES
The deal did not come easy. The Volkswagen CEO caused waves among German automakers and suppliers after he called for the widespread adoption of electric cars and a mass investment in EV charging infrastructure. The VW CEO’s proposal was bold: he wanted the German auto industry to focus solely on EVs, and he warned that he would be “evaporating billions” to do so. The proposal was met with a lot of criticism, from both fellow automakers and suppliers. In response, Volkswagen threatened to leave the industry lobby group Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) because of its refusal to commit to an electric-first strategy.

- https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mission ... w-daimler/


Still, I'd love to see what VW could achieve if it were taking electric seriously...

[redsturgeon]

Infographics article on EV sales produced by BMW shows Tesla has a long way to go in Europe to compete.

https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/a ... ruary-2019

John

[odysseus2000]

Infographics article on EV sales produced by BMW shows Tesla has a long way to go in Europe to compete.

https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/a ... ruary-2019

John

But its 6 weeks out of date and very misleading as the footnote at the bottom says that Electric vehicle means battery or hybrid.

Since Tesla don't have hybrids and BMW are mostly hybrid it flatters BMW, but to a more serious reader it shows how much trouble BMW are in, given the size of Tesla's battery only vehicle sales to the much longer developed and available hybrids.

A neighbour who leased a BMW hybrid due to range anxiety was telling me that his experience is that dragging around a petrol engine when it could be run off batteries makes no sense and he is now thinking of a battery only for his next lease.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

One could equally say that lugging batteries around with a petrol engine makes little sense unless you are doing mostly short runs.

TJH

[redsturgeon]

One could equally say that lugging batteries around with a petrol engine makes little sense unless you are doing mostly short runs.

TJH

I am one of those people...

I have a BMW hybrid that does about 15 miles on battery power only, probably 80% of my journeys. Then went I have a longer trip it has a petrol engine that performs very nicely and returns about 45 mpg.

The only downside for me has been the small petrol tank, good for only about 300 miles.

John

[dspp]

One could equally say that lugging batteries around with a petrol engine makes little sense unless you are doing mostly short runs.

TJH

I am one of those people...

I have a BMW hybrid that does about 15 miles on battery power only, probably 80% of my journeys. Then went I have a longer trip it has a petrol engine that performs very nicely and returns about 45 mpg.

The only downside for me has been the small petrol tank, good for only about 300 miles.

John

That'll be about the same range as a decent pure BEV then

By the way if it is a BMW 5...e then I guess it is the same as one of my friends recently bought. Nice vehicle, but that is a lot of obsolete reciprocating etc bits it is lugging around.

- dspp

[redsturgeon]

One could equally say that lugging batteries around with a petrol engine makes little sense unless you are doing mostly short runs.

TJH

I am one of those people...

I have a BMW hybrid that does about 15 miles on battery power only, probably 80% of my journeys. Then went I have a longer trip it has a petrol engine that performs very nicely and returns about 45 mpg.

The only downside for me has been the small petrol tank, good for only about 300 miles.

John

That'll be about the same range as a decent pure BEV then

By the way if it is a BMW 5...e then I guess it is the same as one of my friends recently bought. Nice vehicle, but that is a lot of obsolete reciprocating etc bits it is lugging around.

- dspp

225xe

[Howard]

One could equally say that lugging batteries around with a petrol engine makes little sense unless you are doing mostly short runs.

TJH

I am one of those people...

I have a BMW hybrid that does about 15 miles on battery power only, probably 80% of my journeys. Then went I have a longer trip it has a petrol engine that performs very nicely and returns about 45 mpg.

The only downside for me has been the small petrol tank, good for only about 300 miles.

John

That'll be about the same range as a decent pure BEV then

By the way if it is a BMW 5...e then I guess it is the same as one of my friends recently bought. Nice vehicle, but that is a lot of obsolete reciprocating etc bits it is lugging around.

- dspp

My experience of a BMW 330e leased for two years for Mrs H shows the potential of BMW hybrids. I kept every petrol receipt and so this is real world.

Over 11,292 miles it used 726 litres of petrol. That's 70.8 mpg.

And it used £240 of electricity over the two years. So in cost terms that was the equivalent of 55mpg.

It was one of the fastest cars I've owned. And supremely quiet. I suspect quite a bit quieter than a Tesla as reviewers suggest they have a lot of tyre noise.

The 330e persuaded me to lease my current BMW. I would have had a hybrid but the waiting time was too long. The petrol 5 Series is also supremely quiet to drive (not an MSport) and returns approx 40mpg.

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Others may not agree, but I think this is a pretty realistic description of some of the current issues affecting Tesla and its share price.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425103 ... check?dr=1

Reading comments by Tesla owners on bulletin boards it strikes me that the company is getting away with some amazingly bad customer service. Its wealthy customer base is amazingly tolerant of issues that customers of other premium cars would never forgive.

And it is frankly amazing how their customers are prepared to pay $5,000 for an Autopilot system which is downright dangerous unless controlled manually. Googling “Tesla Autopilot fails” shows a number of examples of how the system is fooled by unusual slip road exits and especially roadworks.

We will see how the insurance industry in Europe treats Teslas now that there are more on the road.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla is 3 years ahead of competitors, and other useful stuff:

https://mobile.twitter.com/0_ody/status ... 8750348289

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Still no sight of the oft promised $35K Tesla.

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27150/tes ... ge-model-3

The fact that not a single Standard Range vehicle has been reported delivered, or even confirmed seen in the wild, suggests that Tesla may not have even built any. Since every trim level other than the base Standard Range is being delivered, including the so-called Standard Range Plus, customers are calling the move a "bait and switch" and wondering if the Tesla ever planned on delivering Standard Range cars this quarter.

[BobbyD]

Tesla is 3 years ahead of competitors, and other useful stuff:

https://mobile.twitter.com/0_ody/status ... 8750348289

Regards,

Here is a summary of the electric vehicle (EV) forecasts from ARK Invest and Elon Musk that Ray and I discussed with Keeney on our show -- a summary of her discussions with Elon Musk:

ARK has estimated that Tesla is 3 years ahead of peers like Nvidia in autonomous hardware, given the specs of the custom chip it released late last year.

Tesla has zero autonomous cars, Waymo and APTIV have autonomous cars...