Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

PeterGray
I don't dispute that there is a market for Teslas, of the type you describe. But it's far, far smaller (for Tesla in its current incarnation) that you seem to think. It's absolutely a niche car manufacturer, taken together globally its a biggish niche, but it's definitely nowhere near mass market. Will Tesla ever break out of the niche? I've no idea - I see no sign of it yet, and to break out they need to appeal to a very different audience, those with little interest in an expensive luxury high performance car, but who want a well priced upmarket shopping trolley, as you put it, and with a reputation for reliability and service. VW, Nissan, Honda etc all understand that, and have a reputation in that market.

The car that did well in this mkt sector was the Nissan Leaf. It had very poor everything in terms of batteries & motors & for these reasons depreciated like crazy & is now being heavily out sold.

If your appraisal of the car market was correct then the Leaf ought to be still doing well. It is afterall basic, comes from a well known stable & is a nice shopping trolley.

As far as I can tell it is doing badly just because it is under built, the alternatives are better & the depreciation is murderous.

If any maker brings out a Leaf version of their motor they are going to do badly imho. The etron is a good example of a car destined to follow the Leaf into the scrap yard. It uses out of date electronics, is built from bits of other cars, under performs other electric cars & anyone buying one will be reminded that VW are a poor company, interested in misleading their buyers in any way possible to take cash off them as they did with diesel-gate.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

The argument is like PC v Mac.

PC massively outsells Mac, whose use is restricted to creative professionals who don't pay for their own machines and cult members?

For once I think you have a point.

Yes, the pc market as had a bit of a spurt as windows 10 had to be bought as the earlier ones are coming out of support, but that's it a blip:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/why-are-p ... -crashing/

Regards,

[dspp]

Tesla and Panasonic are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports.

The two had intended to raise capacity 50% by 2020 to the equivalent of 54 gigawatt-hours, but financial problems forced a re-think.

Panasonic also intends to suspend planned investment in Tesla's battery and EV plant in Shanghai, and instead provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the existing Gigafactory.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3449876-t ... ion-freeze

!!!

- dspp

[odysseus2000]

Tesla and Panasonic are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports.

The two had intended to raise capacity 50% by 2020 to the equivalent of 54 gigawatt-hours, but financial problems forced a re-think.

Panasonic also intends to suspend planned investment in Tesla's battery and EV plant in Shanghai, and instead provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the existing Gigafactory.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3449876-t ... ion-freeze

!!!

- dspp

Interesting situation. According to this, they now believe they can increase output with out more spend:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stock ... 19643.html

Is this true or just marketing speak?

The acquisition of Maxwell contained statements to the effect that the processes that Maxwell had developed could increase battery yield by doing away with the wet chemistry drying process, using a technology similar to power coating and lead to substantially increases in production.

We may be seeing this or, or perhaps the headlines that demand is well down are correct. This seems less likely to me as the statements have been for sometime that battery storage was starved of cells that were going to motors. Meanwhile Audi have admitted battery shortages are reducing their etron output.

As usual with a volatile stock like Tesla any piece of information leads to movement and the colony of bears have been trumping how this marks the end of Tesla as they usually do.

Will be interesting to listen to the next conference call.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

The argument is like PC v Mac.

PC massively outsells Mac, whose use is restricted to creative professionals who don't pay for their own machines and cult members?

For once I think you have a point.

Yes, the pc market as had a bit of a spurt as windows 10 had to be bought as the earlier ones are coming out of support, but that's it a blip:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/why-are-p ... -crashing/

Regards,

From the source linked in your link:



So being generous 18 million a year.

From the other source cited in your link:

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., July 12, 2018 – Preliminary results for the second quarter of 2018 (2Q18) showed shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, and workstation) totaled 62.3 million units

- https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44118818

18 million vs 62.3 million....

[PeterGray]

The car that did well in this mkt sector was the Nissan Leaf. It had very poor everything in terms of batteries & motors & for these reasons depreciated like crazy & is now being heavily out sold.

Quite possibly, things and tech move on. But don't try and tell me the people who used to buy Leafs are now buying Teslas.

[BobbyD]

The acquisition of Maxwell contained statements to the effect that the processes that Maxwell had developed could increase battery yield by doing away with the wet chemistry drying process, using a technology similar to power coating and lead to substantially increases in production.

There has been no Maxwell acquisition yet.

Tender Offer Extension for Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies, Inc.

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 08, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla, Inc. today announced that it has extended the expiration of its previously announced offer, through its direct wholly-owned subsidiary Cambria Acquisition Corp., a Delaware corporation, to acquire each outstanding share of common stock of Maxwell Technologies, Inc.

The offer is now scheduled to expire at 11:59 p.m., Eastern time, on May 15, 2019, unless it is further extended or earlier terminated in accordance with the merger agreement.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-rele ... s-Inc.html

[BobbyD]

Tesla and Panasonic are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports.

The actual reported concern as reported here:

Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic

and here:

OSAKA --Tesla and Panasonic are freezing plans to expand the capacity of their Gigafactory 1, the world's largest EV battery plant, as concerns mount on Wall Street about weakening demand at Elon Musk's car company.

- https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... igafactory



appears to be weakening demand specifically for Tesla Electric cars, not for electric cars in general, which I think is a distinction worth making.

[odysseus2000]

PC massively outsells Mac, whose use is restricted to creative professionals who don't pay for their own machines and cult members?

For once I think you have a point.

Yes, the pc market as had a bit of a spurt as windows 10 had to be bought as the earlier ones are coming out of support, but that's it a blip:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/why-are-p ... -crashing/

Regards,

From the source linked in your link:



So being generous 18 million a year.

From the other source cited in your link:

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., July 12, 2018 – Preliminary results for the second quarter of 2018 (2Q18) showed shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, and workstation) totaled 62.3 million units

- https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44118818

18 million vs 62.3 million....

Ok, I admit that PC outsell Macs which is great as it gives Macs a lot of market share to take.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

The car that did well in this mkt sector was the Nissan Leaf. It had very poor everything in terms of batteries & motors & for these reasons depreciated like crazy & is now being heavily out sold.

Quite possibly, things and tech move on. But don't try and tell me the people who used to buy Leafs are now buying Teslas.

Yes, folk who got a taste for electric with the Leaf now want the latest tech, i.e. a Tesla

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla and Panasonic are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports.

The actual reported concern as reported here:

Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic

and here:

OSAKA --Tesla and Panasonic are freezing plans to expand the capacity of their Gigafactory 1, the world's largest EV battery plant, as concerns mount on Wall Street about weakening demand at Elon Musk's car company.

- https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... igafactory



appears to be weakening demand specifically for Tesla Electric cars, not for electric cars in general, which I think is a distinction worth making.

Wall Street is endlessly fussing over demand, this article is just opinion.

Yes, the Maxwell deal hasn't closed but as I understand it there is a lot of technical interaction between Maxwell and Tesla.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla and Panasonic are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports.

The actual reported concern as reported here:

Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic

and here:

OSAKA --Tesla and Panasonic are freezing plans to expand the capacity of their Gigafactory 1, the world's largest EV battery plant, as concerns mount on Wall Street about weakening demand at Elon Musk's car company.

- https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... igafactory



appears to be weakening demand specifically for Tesla Electric cars, not for electric cars in general, which I think is a distinction worth making.

Wall Street is endlessly fussing over demand, this article is just opinion.

Yes, the Maxwell deal hasn't closed but as I understand it there is a lot of technical interaction between Maxwell and Tesla.

Regards,

What about this one:

Panasonic reviewing further investment in Tesla Gigafactory
Makiko Yamazaki, Arjun Panchadar
3 MIN READ

TOKYO/BENGALURU (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp and Tesla Inc are holding off on further investment in the U.S. electric carmaker’s Nevada Gigafactory while they squeeze more out of existing resources and study market demand, the companies said on Thursday.

The two companies were responding to a report by Japan’s Nikkei that said they had frozen previous plans to raise the capacity of the plant, which supplies battery packs for Tesla cars.

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1RN117

[odysseus2000]

It is all the same stuff.

Can they make more without expanding, or are Tesla sales so bad that they don't need as many batteries?

I do not know.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

It is all the same stuff.

It's a report of a statement from the companies involved.

[odysseus2000]

For all you German car fan folk, who think the transition will be a day for German makers, here is Bloomberg's take on what electrification will do & cost to German auto:

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019 ... ium-europe

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

More on effects on German car industry:

https://jalopnik.com/germany-prepares-f ... 1833967945

Regards,

[Howard]

Ody

I think you are bringing red herrings into the discussion about Tesla’s situation.

Sales of Apple products, technical discussions about batteries, comments about Top Gear viewers, Frankenstein analogies etc all seem to be devices to avoid addressing the serious situation which Tesla appears to be in.

On April 1, I suggested that Panasonic might start getting worried about Tesla as a partner because they are not hitting their sales forecasts and this is leading to a cash flow problem. We now know almost certainly that the dire sales situation is worrying Panasonic as they appear to be pulling investment from the Megafactory. This could be the indication of a huge battery supply and development problem.

Your faith in Tesla’s ability to build a plant in China must be challenged by a concern that sales are slipping and this capacity is not required.

And we know that their margins are under pressure too. Sales of the X and S models in Europe are cratering. There are strong suggestions that this is happening in their US market as well.

They are selling Model 3s, but not in the volumes that they predicted. And the higher margin 3 variants are not as popular as expected.

Companies which go from growth to decline as quickly as Tesla usually suffer cash flow problems fairly quickly.

The big manufacturers who you decry may suffer lower profits but they aren’t desperate for cash. They are, like BMW, gearing up for the manufacture of EVs and can (profitably) wait to see if Tesla can dig itself out of the hole it has created by its big talk and wildly optimistic forecasts.

Tesla may be saved by one of the big car brands who likes the idea of buying a big plant in the US. Or they may be able to raise more cash. Both of these solutions won’t be good for shareholders.

It’s a marketing and business management case study which is developing as we watch. Fascinating!!

regards

Howard

[dspp]

It is indeed fascinating, and I completely agree that properly informed robust facts-based technology-strategy analysis is required to assist in the normal investment decisions. There is quite enough FUD around without inflicting even more of it on ourselves, or engaging in inappropriate fantasy-strategy-think.

The Nikkei reports about Panasonic & Tesla investments (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panason ... nt-nikkei/) repeat the claimed 35 GWh capacity for Nevada GF1. If you take 400,000 vehicles/year for 2019 (which is the upside of the 360,000 - 400,000 projected by Tesla) and multiply by 75 kWh/vehicle (which would be about an average if you were to blend all the variants of the 3, the S, and the X) then you get 30 GWh/yr. Add in maybe 10% for storage, and you can see that there is a rough supply & demand match.

Perhaps even factor in:
- a few battery-side supply chain constraints in right now, plus
- uncertainty about the sustained demand level, plus
- uncertainty about how/if/when/what would be the impact of Maxwell on the batteries,
- concerns that both companies might have about each others' financial stability, plus
- concerns that both companies might have about each others' partnership fidelity
- plus concerns about when Shanghai might actually come onstream, and how fast it will ramp
and you can see why both parties might reasonably ease off the accelerator pedal, especially given that it is reportedly about $1bn to go to 54 GWh/yr out of Nevada. They had been looking to get to 54 GWh/yr by 2020 by the way.

So now that I have had a chance to sit and think about it I am not entirely surprised, especially when there is an S/X battery refresh coming, and Tesla playing footsie with alternative suppliers for the Shanghai facility. Mind you it is not the sort of news one welcomes when it pops in the inbox.

I'm still thinking about nibbling some more. At $268 now, went to $260 a couple of weeks ago. Mmmmmmmm........ do I feel lucky ?

(I thought I saw a news item about Tesla starting leasing yesterday, it flashed up on my screen but I was busy at work and didn't read it and can't see it now - was it real ?)

regards, dspp

[PeterGray]

The car that did well in this mkt sector was the Nissan Leaf. It had very poor everything in terms of batteries & motors & for these reasons depreciated like crazy & is now being heavily out sold.

Quite possibly, things and tech move on. But don't try and tell me the people who used to buy Leafs are now buying Teslas.

Yes, folk who got a taste for electric with the Leaf now want the latest tech, i.e. a Tesla

Regards,

Pure fantasy!

More worrying today for Tesla, apart from the slow down by Panasonic in production, who are now saying they won't build the Chinese battery plant (who will fund that?), is also a statement from them being reported that whereas Tesla claimed that Model S production was limited by battery deliveries in Q4, Pana are saying they supplied all that were requested. Given Tesla's loose connection to accurate reporting at times it's not hard to see which of those most people will believe.

[dspp]

Peter,
The Leaf is a pretty crude BEV. It certainly isn't Tesla-comparable as a long distance vehicle. The battery pack/system technology just hammers the battery longevity in the Leaf. I have seen quite a lot of evidence (which I don't have to hand) of Leaf owners doing the Tesla-stretch when replacing their Leaf. Owners of Leafs who I speak with in the UK think the same way.

Howard,
Here is the leasing news item I saw briefly : https://seekingalpha.com/news/3450207-t ... l-3-leases

Tesla has begun leasing its Model 3 sedan in the U.S., in a financing option that would increase the EV maker's base. However, customers will not have the option to buy their cars at the end of the lease as Tesla intends to use the vehicles for its long planned Tesla Network ride sharing program. Tesla has also halted online sales of its $35,000 Model 3, meaning the lowest-priced version available on the net for order is now the $39,500 Standard Plus (which includes Autopilot). The lowest-priced model can still be ordered by phone or in stores.

- dspp