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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#249910

Postby BobbyD » September 6th, 2019, 2:16 pm

Noticed our local Waitrose has charging points. Couldn't see any sign of power. According to Zap Map they are 3kW! Future proof or what?

...oh, and there is an on again off again fight over whether you need to pay for parking to use them. Presumably if you are actually shopping at Waitrose you get the free 90 minutes everybody else gets, but you are still limited to 90 minutes so not really going to get you very far.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#249917

Postby odysseus2000 » September 6th, 2019, 2:28 pm

Picks and shovels for BEV.

I have been looking at the various things one needs with a BEV, a post but one back shows the charging tech that someone might install.

From an investor perspective there does not seem to be much of a better option that who ever you think will become a dominant maker.

The tech is generally commodity style and so unlikely to be profitable for investment as far as I can tell.

As anyone come across picks and shovel type investments for BEV?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250020

Postby BobbyD » September 6th, 2019, 10:12 pm

Volkswagen AG and Northvolt AB have created a 50/50 joint venture to build a factory for lithium-ion batteries. Construction of the production facility is scheduled to start in Salzgitter (Lower Saxony) in 2020. Start of production is planned for the end of 2023/beginning of 2024. The initial annual output is to be 16 GWh.

The finalization of the joint venture is the result of an agreement which both parties concluded in June. Part of the approximately 900 million euros invested by Volkswagen is now flowing into the joint venture. Another part goes directly to Northvolt. In return, Volkswagen has received about 20 percent of the shares in the Swedish battery manufacturer and a seat on the Supervisory Board.


- https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/20 ... ction.html

Northvolt's development facility is already live. They are also building a 32GWh factory in Northern Sweden.

- https://northvolt.com/

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#250038

Postby Howard » September 7th, 2019, 12:42 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Picks and shovels for BEV.

I have been looking at the various things one needs with a BEV, a post but one back shows the charging tech that someone might install.

From an investor perspective there does not seem to be much of a better option that who ever you think will become a dominant maker.

The tech is generally commodity style and so unlikely to be profitable for investment as far as I can tell.

As anyone come across picks and shovel type investments for BEV?

Regards,


Ody,

Back in April I mentioned AB Dynamics who have been very successful in manufacturing test equipment for steering, suspension and other systems for car manufacturers. Their shares have benefited hugely from their prudent managed growth.

viewtopic.php?p=217103#p217103

Their share price in April was under £2, it was over £2.70 yesterday. The founder and now non-executive Chairman of the company and his wife sold around £3 million of shares in the last few days so it is likely that the price will fall next week (unless institutions are keen to increase their holdings). Depending on your view, this might be a buying opportunity. I'm guessing they sold because he is in his 80s and he must be gradually letting go of his links with the company. Their combined sales only accounted for 0.5% of the company's share capital and they still hold 26.3% of the company, so they are still committed to its success. But DYOR!

The link to the company announcement is below.

https://www.abdynamics.com/resources/fi ... -FINAL.pdf

I hold shares in AB Dynamics and have benefited from their growth. However, I also bought shares in Ricardo and Continental several years ago as both these companies were said to be involved in helping develop BEV's. Neither of these operations have prospered from a shareholder viewpoint, but might be worth looking at. Luckily my stake in AB was more significant :) .

Hope this is helpful.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250041

Postby odysseus2000 » September 7th, 2019, 3:03 am

Electric mini, alas terribly presents in this video & not imho much of a car, too limited range, no mention of top speed. The original were good in 1959, but let down by all kinds of errors.

This one is cheap & it shows it, but they have a lot of pre-orders, so maybe it will sell, but not to me.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250042

Postby BobbyD » September 7th, 2019, 5:45 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Electric mini, alas terribly presents in this video & not imho much of a car, too limited range, no mention of top speed. The original were good in 1959, but let down by all kinds of errors.

This one is cheap & it shows it, but they have a lot of pre-orders, so maybe it will sell, but not to me.

Regards,


This video? https://youtu.be/6csoYiUzltc

It's an e-Golf in an ID3 world...

I don't think the range need be a problem, and the price is good, for the moment. But it is a petrol car with batteries shoved in the transmission tunnel, built on the same line as the petrol version, so I doubt it is the best BEV possible, or the most efficient to produce. They've basically mated the mini with an i3 and knocked £10k off the price, which mightn't bode well for the i3. It will however be the only electric mini, so if that's your thing you have no choice. I wonder how much they are losing on each car?

The range is actually slightly above what was announced

BobbyD wrote:Mini Cooper SE predicted under 140 miles range, £30k. i3 guts in ICE mini shell.

- https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-revie ... ectric-ev/


and well above the 100 miles estimated by Top Gear in March.

On the antiquated and unrealistic NEDC cycle, the old 94aH i3S claims 186 miles of range. Real-world, we reckon it’s good for about 120 miles. As for the Mini… it’s a fair bit heavier than the i3. Some 250kg, in fact, tipping the scales at 1,360kg or so. That’s around 130kg more than a internal combustion Cooper S with the automatic gearbox. And of course the Mini won’t be as aerodynamic as an i3, because it doesn’t have its skinny tyres or (as) slippery body.

Our guess is the Mini might manage 100 miles or so, which isn’t very far at all. Hopefully a bit more than that, but there’s no knowing till it goes on sale. A smaller, likely cheaper Renault Zoe, with its much bigger battery, gets not far off 200 miles, and the new Peugeot e-208 claims over 200 miles.


- https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electr ... oper-s-e#2


On a brighter note blue is definitely the colour to get your Taycan in, although the silver grey is also very nice.

FIRST LOOK: Porsche Taycan Turbo | Top Gear - https://youtu.be/RfnLv80fq3w

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250208

Postby BobbyD » September 7th, 2019, 8:41 pm

An interesting article on the conversion of VW's Zwickau plant from petrol car production to BEV production. I'd have tagged it as non-partisan, and the issues covered are generally relevant to other Legacy Auto.

Volkswagen nudges workers towards an electric future

The Zwickau factory is the laboratory for the change from combustion engines to electric ones


- https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/compa ... ic-future/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250253

Postby dspp » September 8th, 2019, 8:22 am

I suspect I am behind the times courtesy of travelling, however I haven't scanned any posts about the Model 3 getting the 'other' category into the #3 position in the UK:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ling-cars/

Image

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250256

Postby Howard » September 8th, 2019, 8:57 am

dspp wrote:I suspect I am behind the times courtesy of travelling, however I haven't scanned any posts about the Model 3 getting the 'other' category into the #3 position in the UK:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ling-cars/

Image

regards, dspp


My post above (and the subsequent one quoting the report from the Guardian) covered Tesla's (disappointing?) August sales worldwide.

viewtopic.php?p=249533#p249533

Interesting that Tesla has told the SMMT that they don't want this organisation to publish their sales figures in the UK. Slightly paranoid approach?

That's why they are referred to as "other".

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250317

Postby BobbyD » September 8th, 2019, 2:10 pm

dspp wrote:I suspect I am behind the times courtesy of travelling, however I haven't scanned any posts about the Model 3 getting the 'other' category into the #3 position in the UK:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ling-cars/

Image

regards, dspp


First month of significant RHD delivery? In a silly season month?

Image

- https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/08/new-car- ... st-triple/

Sensible timing to get the news coverage, but hardly significant.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250395

Postby odysseus2000 » September 8th, 2019, 9:12 pm

Model 3 with the improved computer:

https://youtu.be/QcGaVKy_ZMc

Interesting in that the noise level seems low & the visibility and the screen seem good.

The differences between this driving computers and the previous one in the model S is also interesting.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250594

Postby odysseus2000 » September 9th, 2019, 7:19 pm

Interesting info on a model 3 road trip, remarkable range and easy charging:

https://youtu.be/s2DdNHxDrnw

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250602

Postby Howard » September 9th, 2019, 8:17 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Model 3 with the improved computer:

https://youtu.be/QcGaVKy_ZMc

Interesting in that the noise level seems low & the visibility and the screen seem good.

The differences between this driving computers and the previous one in the model S is also interesting.

Regards,


This short video does show the many flaws in autopilot. Particularly the propensity for the car to want to hit cars and vans parked at the side of the road. And at one point to accelerate to illegal speeds. I can't see how anyone would use autopilot on UK roads. The driver is having to compensate for the car's erratic behaviour which must make it more dangerous to drive than a car without autopilot. It's really puzzling me why anyone would want this feature?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250609

Postby BobbyD » September 9th, 2019, 9:06 pm

Executives at Volkswagen, which last year edged out Toyota as the world’s largest carmaker, have hinted that economies of scale have allowed them to push the cost of batteries in the ID.3 below $100 per kilowatt hour. That price is considered the point at which electric cars become more affordable than internal combustion models. Analysts had not expected costs to fall that far for several more years.

Ralf Brandstätter, chief operating officer for the division that makes Volkswagen-brand cars, simply grinned when asked about rumors that the company had achieved that magic number.

“We are the company that will provide electromobility for all,” Mr. Brandstätter said last month on the sidelines of an event in Wolfsburg where the company gave reporters an advance look at the ID.3.

Another executive, who declined to be identified because the company had not officially disclosed a figure, confirmed that Volkswagen was paying less than $100 per kilowatt hour for batteries.


- https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/busi ... icles.html

From the VW group night in Frankfurt:

id.3:

Pure: range 290km

Pro: range 420 km

Pro S: range 550km

Pro and Pro S will charge at 100 Kw giving 290km in 30 minutes.

VW wallboxes to be half price of competitors

Service every 2 years regardless of milaege 'that is how much we trust this technology'

Oh, and it looks infinitely better without the swirly cam.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250618

Postby BobbyD » September 9th, 2019, 9:47 pm

Electrek presumably going off the press release and not the English simultaneous translation of the presentation have even better news regarding charging:

Pure: “The battery can be recharged with a maximum charging output of 7.2 kW (AC) and 50 kW (DC). 100 kW DC charging is optionally also available. The vehicle’s basic model also reaches a top speed of 160 km/h.”

This will be the version starting under “under $33,000 (€30,000).”

Pro: “The ID.3 1ST features a battery with an actual usable energy content of 58 kWh as well as an electric range of up to 420 kilometers as per WLTP. The battery can be recharged with a maximum charging output of 11 kW (AC) and 100 kW (DC). With DC charging, it is possible to recharge enough energy to cover a range of 290 kilometers within 30 minutes.”

Pro S: “The largest battery variant’s actually usable energy content is 77 kWh and the electrically powered range is up to 550 kilometers as per WLTP. The battery can be charged at an AC power source with a maximum charging output of 11 kW and with up to 125 kW at a DC power source.”
- https://electrek.co/2019/09/09/vw-id3-p ... unveiling/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250629

Postby odysseus2000 » September 9th, 2019, 11:29 pm

This short video does show the many flaws in autopilot. Particularly the propensity for the car to want to hit cars and vans parked at the side of the road. And at one point to accelerate to illegal speeds. I can't see how anyone would use autopilot on UK roads. The driver is having to compensate for the car's erratic behaviour which must make it more dangerous to drive than a car without autopilot. It's really puzzling me why anyone would want this feature?

regards

Howard


Ap is not ready yet, but it looked smoother and more capable than the earlier version on the X that he has shown several times.

Strange how the AP does not seem to see the parked cars until it is about to hit them. This looks to me like the software suppresses the data for parked cars for some other reason and that some more coding between what is happening now and what is needed is likely possible.

If the parked car issue is solvable a lot of the issues with the Ap would be cleared.

Imho the Ap is not far away from being able to navigate UK roads, but to be useable it will also need to learn how to deal with roundabouts and junctions, the former unknown in the US and the latter very different.

All in all this is the most encouraging in the wild Ap test that I have seen.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250634

Postby Howard » September 10th, 2019, 12:19 am

BobbyD wrote:Electrek presumably going off the press release and not the English simultaneous translation of the presentation have even better news regarding charging:

Pure: “The battery can be recharged with a maximum charging output of 7.2 kW (AC) and 50 kW (DC). 100 kW DC charging is optionally also available. The vehicle’s basic model also reaches a top speed of 160 km/h.”

This will be the version starting under “under $33,000 (€30,000).”

Pro: “The ID.3 1ST features a battery with an actual usable energy content of 58 kWh as well as an electric range of up to 420 kilometers as per WLTP. The battery can be recharged with a maximum charging output of 11 kW (AC) and 100 kW (DC). With DC charging, it is possible to recharge enough energy to cover a range of 290 kilometers within 30 minutes.”

Pro S: “The largest battery variant’s actually usable energy content is 77 kWh and the electrically powered range is up to 550 kilometers as per WLTP. The battery can be charged at an AC power source with a maximum charging output of 11 kW and with up to 125 kW at a DC power source.”
- https://electrek.co/2019/09/09/vw-id3-p ... unveiling/


If this car is 70% as good as this launch implies it is going to be a winner. With a sensible interior and dual display so that the speed and satnav directions are in front of the driver. Roughly speaking it is going to be priced at Golf levels. Assuming VW can meet demand, this car should sell in very large volumes. Especially in markets like the UK where company car drivers are going to benefit from large subsidies.

VW dealers must be looking forward to selling these cars. They are going to create a volume BEV market segment. And VW know how to market volume cars successfully. The next two or three years are going to be interesting!

Will we see a launch of a larger more luxurious quality BEV for around £40k from another manufacturer with a similar range? If so, the BEV market in Europe will really take off.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250641

Postby BobbyD » September 10th, 2019, 5:08 am

Howard wrote:
If this car is 70% as good as this launch implies it is going to be a winner. With a sensible interior and dual display so that the speed and satnav directions are in front of the driver. Roughly speaking it is going to be priced at Golf levels. Assuming VW can meet demand, this car should sell in very large volumes. Especially in markets like the UK where company car drivers are going to benefit from large subsidies.


I'd buy one just for the pedals with pause and play symbols on them.

I must say I'm not sold on the 'honeycomb' detailing which apparently represents 'sustainability', and let's not forget this car's manufacture is supposed to be carbon neutral and the unlit instances of the new VW logo look like a step back for me. I was expecting big things from this car, as you might have noticed, and I'm not disappointed. There have been enough vids of the driving side of things going on, but looking at the cabin which was obscured during those they've done a really nice job. Clean but not spartan, familiar but modern, and a cathedralesque amount of space.

Here are a couple of vids looking at the internal and external styling:

Top Gear FIRST LOOK: Volkswagen ID.3 | Top Gear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTMFamylaDQ

Motormouth - ID3 electric car debut: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q0HcMGNdvE

All boxes ticked in my book. It's the right price, the right specs, it looks good inside and out, and it's a VW. What more could you want?

Oh, and the new e-up should get a showing this week as well.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250659

Postby dspp » September 10th, 2019, 9:00 am

Good. The VW models will be serious competition for Tesla when they arrive, and that will be healthy.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#250675

Postby tjh290633 » September 10th, 2019, 10:03 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Imho the Ap is not far away from being able to navigate UK roads, but to be useable it will also need to learn how to deal with roundabouts and junctions, the former unknown in the US and the latter very different.

If you want to try it out, try sending two autonomously driven cars along our lane, one from each end, and see how they sort themselves out when they meet in the middle. They may well each have a queue of traffic behind them, to complicate matters, and there are always a line of parked cars in the narrowest section.

Manually driven cars are able to negotiate the lane with little problem, until an oversized truck (>6'6" wide) attempts it. They often have to reverse out and that can take some time.

I wouldn't fancy having a driverless taxi to take me home.

TJH


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