Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

VW are now up against several Chinese makers who will want as much of the Chinese and European market that they can get and Chinese will compete on price and quality.

Several of those Chinese competitors are VW...

VW sell more cars in China than anybody else.

This isn't exactly new territory for them.

[dspp]

Rubbish. It just means that they see a gradual and perhaps only partial transition to battery powered vehicles. Don't forget that hydrogen is a possible and more attractive alternative.

TJH

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

[redsturgeon]

I see Amazon is looking to have a fleet of delivery vans from Rivian with whom they have a large investment. 100,000 in the next ten years, biggest EV order ever. Last few mile delivery vans make perfect sense for BEV especially with emission zones becoming stricter in cities.

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/busine ... 373507001/

John

[odysseus2000]

So we now have the global phenomenon of climate strikes:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Climate ... 2649581569

Meanwhile VW are aiming for < 3% BEV.

Here we have the modus operandi of VW:

https://twitter.com/donttrythis/status/ ... 85824?s=20

Once you have manufacturing business run by folk who have no scientific or engineering training you get things like the collapse of the UK auto industry and now we see VW following the same route to extinction.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

Rubbish. It just means that they see a gradual and perhaps only partial transition to battery powered vehicles. Don't forget that hydrogen is a possible and more attractive alternative.

TJH

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

Don't forget that our town's gas contained a high proportion of hydrogen, before the change to natural gas. Vehicles ran on that and my grandfather's printing works was driven by a small gas engine.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

Rubbish. It just means that they see a gradual and perhaps only partial transition to battery powered vehicles. Don't forget that hydrogen is a possible and more attractive alternative.

TJH

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

Don't forget that our town's gas contained a high proportion of hydrogen, before the change to natural gas. Vehicles ran on that and my grandfather's printing works was driven by a small gas engine.

TJH

Let us also not forget that all new houses are to be built with no open fires or gas appliances due to climate concerns and the ongoing switch to a fully electric national fuel policy.

The chance of hydrogen becoming a major fuel for anything is imho zero. Yes, many companies still tout it and spend the odd farthing on it, but that imho is all about keeping politicians from too much meddling.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Rubbish. It just means that they see a gradual and perhaps only partial transition to battery powered vehicles. Don't forget that hydrogen is a possible and more attractive alternative.

TJH

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

Hydrogen is still taken seriously in Japan, which is why VW is the only 10 million a year car producer lining up to own electric. BMW unveiled a new hydrogen concept at Frankfurt. I don't think we are going to see an hydrogen powered future, but it certainly isn't dead, especially in a field whose direction is so sensitive to the heavy hand of government subsidy on the steering wheel.

Meanwhile VW are aiming for < 3% BEV.

That is an untruth.

Once you have manufacturing business run by folk who have no scientific or engineering training you get things like the collapse of the UK auto industry and now we see VW following the same route to extinction.

If you are right this doesn't bode well for Tesla. VW on the other hand, will continue to prosper.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:
Meanwhile VW are aiming for < 3% BEV.

That is an untruth.

So VW's single electric factory can produce a max of 330,000 cars per year, they make 10 million total.

So why is this number an untruth?

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:
Meanwhile VW are aiming for < 3% BEV.

That is an untruth.

So VW's single electric factory can produce a max of 330,000 cars per year, they make 10 million total.

Do you mean Zwickau or Zuffenhausen? or Dresden? or Bratislava?

Tennessee will produce ID4's for the US market. Anting and Foshan will produce MEB based vehicles starting in 2020...

The bit which makes it an untruth is the bit about it not being true.



Going off the idea of car companies run by engineers and scientists?

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
odysseus2000 wrote:
Meanwhile VW are aiming for < 3% BEV.

That is an untruth.

So VW's single electric factory can produce a max of 330,000 cars per year, they make 10 million total.

Do you mean Zwickau or Zuffenhausen? or Dresden? or Bratislava?

Tennessee will produce ID4's for the US market. Anting and Foshan will produce MEB based vehicles starting in 2020...

The bit which makes it an untruth is the bit about it not being true.



Going off the idea of car companies run by engineers and scientists?

Yes, there is talk about all of this but in terms of what they are doing there is one factory to be covered to !00% BEV, all the rest are for now vapour ware for the politicians.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

So VW's single electric factory can produce a max of 330,000 cars per year, they make 10 million total.

Do you mean Zwickau or Zuffenhausen? or Dresden? or Bratislava?

Tennessee will produce ID4's for the US market. Anting and Foshan will produce MEB based vehicles starting in 2020...

The bit which makes it an untruth is the bit about it not being true.



Going off the idea of car companies run by engineers and scientists?

Yes, there is talk about all of this but in terms of what they are doing there is one factory to be covered to !00% BEV, all the rest are for now vapour ware for the politicians.

Regards,

Back to the greatest hits package.

Most car companies aren't run on the second by second whim of their CEO. They plan ahead. Some of the things they plan are what cars they will be producing in the future and where they will be producing them. These are called 'Aims'.

You said VW were aiming for, not currently producing. Of course VW don't currently have the production facilities for cars they are aiming to produce in the future all prepped and mothballed, that would be insane, not to mention unprofitable.

Profit? Try here: https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/profit

If you want vapourware ask elon where the Tesla which went coast to coast in 2017 is. Where these magical self driving taxis which will make Teslas appreciating assets are, or what he's done with the factories which were going to show Legacy auto how to manufacture profitably. Where's the Semi and the Y? Vapourware, huh?

Oh, and I forgot Brussels, which is certified carbon neutral as well.

In order to achieve these 'Aims' companies need to convert plants, secure supply chains etc. A factory doesn't magically appear as the first car rolls off it's production line, just like the plan for a car doesn't not exist until the car is sat on a dealership salesfloor.

[dspp]

Rubbish. It just means that they see a gradual and perhaps only partial transition to battery powered vehicles. Don't forget that hydrogen is a possible and more attractive alternative.

TJH

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

Hydrogen is still taken seriously in Japan, which is why VW is the only 10 million a year car producer lining up to own electric. BMW unveiled a new hydrogen concept at Frankfurt. I don't think we are going to see an hydrogen powered future, but it certainly isn't dead, especially in a field whose direction is so sensitive to the heavy hand of government subsidy on the steering wheel.

BD,
I think you will find the Japanese are rapidly repositioning away from hydrogen, in all respects.
Regards,
dspp

[BobbyD]

Hydrogen is a dead-end pathway, except for some industrial process clusters. I do not expect to see it seriously used in vehicles (either FC or ICE) and certainly not in domestic heating irrespective of the fantasies otherwise.

just imho, dspp

Hydrogen is still taken seriously in Japan, which is why VW is the only 10 million a year car producer lining up to own electric. BMW unveiled a new hydrogen concept at Frankfurt. I don't think we are going to see an hydrogen powered future, but it certainly isn't dead, especially in a field whose direction is so sensitive to the heavy hand of government subsidy on the steering wheel.

BD,
I think you will find the Japanese are rapidly repositioning away from hydrogen, in all respects.
Regards,
dspp

Possibly not that rapidly!

Toyota uses hydrogen fuel cells to power one of its Japanese factories

By Stephen Edelstein September 20, 2019 8:32AM PST

- https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyo ... a-factory/

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Back to the greatest hits package.

Most car companies aren't run on the second by second whim of their CEO. They plan ahead. Some of the things they plan are what cars they will be producing in the future and where they will be producing them. These are called 'Aims'.

You said VW were aiming for, not currently producing. Of course VW don't currently have the production facilities for cars they are aiming to produce in the future all prepped and mothballed, that would be insane, not to mention unprofitable.

Profit? Try here: https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/profit

If you want vapourware ask elon where the Tesla which went coast to coast in 2017 is. Where these magical self driving taxis which will make Teslas appreciating assets are, or what he's done with the factories which were going to show Legacy auto how to manufacture profitably. Where's the Semi and the Y? Vapourware, huh?

Oh, and I forgot Brussels, which is certified carbon neutral as well.

In order to achieve these 'Aims' companies need to convert plants, secure supply chains etc. A factory doesn't magically appear as the first car rolls off it's production line, just like the plan for a car doesn't not exist until the car is sat on a dealership salesfloor.

From an investors perspective it is important to focus on what is going on and on what one believes is likely to happen.

My thesis remains that Tesla is the only auto company pushing 100% BEV whereas most of the others imho are pushing continued ICE with as much BEV as needed to keep meddling politicians out of their business.

IMHO legacy auto is forced into this position because of their corporate structure that still does not believe that BEV can replace ICE and because of the existing capex on ICE lines which are still selling profitably and because they do not want the high capex of developing their own BEV that is competitive with Tesla.

If I am correct we will see legacy auto release a few BEV vehicles, a few % of the ICE output and many of these will be pitiful jobs like the electric mini that will hurt punter belief in BEV and help keep ICE sales going.

If I am wrong and legacy auto is serious about BEV they will have to scale up their plans and capex to increase BEV to several tens of % of their output in the next few years and they will all need to build a shed load of new battery plants.

Failing this I expect Tesla to increase market share and legacy auto to start feeling competition from Chinese makers, first in China and then in Europe and the US.

Then I expect politicians to realise that legacy auto isn't making enough BEV and for the politicians to introduce pollution regulations that will force much more BEV and much more grid storage and this will bring in new entrants to the business who like Tesla will be totally BEV and that all of this will seriously hurt legacy auto.

So far imho all the announcements and the BEV that legacy has produced are in contradiction. Nothing of what legacy has produced in the BEV is compelling as a mass market car, save perhaps the Honda which so far looks to me to be the best non-Tesla BEV car.

Regards,

[Howard]

So far imho all the announcements and the BEV that legacy has produced are in contradiction. Nothing of what legacy has produced in the BEV is compelling as a mass market car, save perhaps the Honda which so far looks to me to be the best non-Tesla BEV car.

Regards,

Ody,

The problem with this argument which you often repeat is that Tesla haven’t been successful in producing a mass market BEV. They appear to be unable to manufacture even a premium priced car profitably. And their sales volume growth appears to be slowing down substantially.

There is some evidence that their sales volumes in China are proving quite disappointing and it is not clear that they will be able to produce a lower cost Model 3 from their Chinese plant.

The model 3 sales volume in China is around 2-3000 a month, this lags behind Tesla’s European ICE rivals. Audi, BMW and Mercedes Benz are outselling them and Chinese BEV competitors are taking market share. See figure 5 in article below:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/429266 ... doing?dr=1

When VW start selling BEVs in China in volume, they will benefit from the support of their established dealerships. As we have seen in other non-US markets, this will be an advantage over the current Tesla direct sales approach unless Tesla can improve their quality and service performance.

Q3 sales volumes will be known soon. Unless Tesla has sold more than 100,000 cars in the quarter, their claim to be growing demand will be seen to be false. And, if Tesla can’t sell all the output of the Freemont plant this will start to get the market worried about how they are going to sell the additional output of their Chinese plant.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Back to the greatest hits package.

Most car companies aren't run on the second by second whim of their CEO. They plan ahead. Some of the things they plan are what cars they will be producing in the future and where they will be producing them. These are called 'Aims'.

You said VW were aiming for, not currently producing. Of course VW don't currently have the production facilities for cars they are aiming to produce in the future all prepped and mothballed, that would be insane, not to mention unprofitable.

Profit? Try here: https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/profit

If you want vapourware ask elon where the Tesla which went coast to coast in 2017 is. Where these magical self driving taxis which will make Teslas appreciating assets are, or what he's done with the factories which were going to show Legacy auto how to manufacture profitably. Where's the Semi and the Y? Vapourware, huh?

Oh, and I forgot Brussels, which is certified carbon neutral as well.

In order to achieve these 'Aims' companies need to convert plants, secure supply chains etc. A factory doesn't magically appear as the first car rolls off it's production line, just like the plan for a car doesn't not exist until the car is sat on a dealership salesfloor.

From an investors perspective it is important to focus on what is going on and on what one believes is likely to happen...

Not when you state as a fact what somebody's intent is, in the face of all available evidence. Then you'd really want to focus on backing up that claim with something more than recycled thoughts and feelings about the big Legacy auto conspiracy aimed at bringing down the messiah Musk.

[dspp]

My thesis remains that Tesla is the only auto company pushing 100% BEV whereas most of the others imho are pushing continued ICE with as much BEV as needed to keep meddling politicians out of their business.

Ody,

To be fair there are quite a few Chinese automakers who are also 100% EV, or nearly so. I appreciate that the biggest (BYD) is still transitioning but I don't think one could describe them as being backwards about cracking on with it. They will likely be TSLA's biggest competitor in China.

Anyway it will come out in the wash over the next few years.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

My thesis remains that Tesla is the only auto company pushing 100% BEV whereas most of the others imho are pushing continued ICE with as much BEV as needed to keep meddling politicians out of their business.

Ody,

To be fair there are quite a few Chinese automakers who are also 100% EV, or nearly so. I appreciate that the biggest (BYD) is still transitioning but I don't think one could describe them as being backwards about cracking on with it. They will likely be TSLA's biggest competitor in China.

Anyway it will come out in the wash over the next few years.

regards, dspp

I've had the pleasure of helping a number of PhD students and talking to their Professors (in two world class universities) in the past few years, so can't resist asking: Ody,if you consider this a thesis, did you ever get a PhD? I'm not sure this one holds water!

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Not when you state as a fact what somebody's intent is, in the face of all available evidence. Then you'd really want to focus on backing up that claim with something more than recycled thoughts and feelings about the big Legacy auto conspiracy aimed at bringing down the messiah Musk.

I have studied the auto industry for a long time. It is a business of exaggerated claims in a back drop of spending as little money as possible & producing the lowest cost car possible, a trend that has accelerated with the development of the leasing market where cars only need last 3 years. Along with this have come claims about engine oils lasting very long distances. It is true that the synthetic oils do not break down as fast as mineral oils, but the tiny bits of metal that they carry damage the engines. It is still better to change oil regularly than rely on the long time intervals specified by the manufacturers. The engineers know this but the only way to sell expensive oils is to say they will last a very long time.
Legacy auto is doing what it always does, making grand claims & doing as little spending as possible. Where it not for Tesla there would be no BEV cars.

The problem for legacy is that there are BEV cars & that they are being forced to develop some & it is hurting their profits & this pain will get worse, the longer they continue to try & get by with predominantly ice cars. Yes as dspp notes there are Chinese near 100% BEV, but the major legacy auto would like BEV to go away.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Howard
I've had the pleasure of helping a number of PhD students and talking to their Professors (in two world class universities) in the past few years, so can't resist asking: Ody,if you consider this a thesis, did you ever get a PhD? I'm not sure this one holds water!

regards

Howard

Yes, got my PhD, then did several years research at Oxford, then several years as a project manager for NASA. I might have been one of the professors you talked to as I supervised research students to their DPhil & PhD.

Incidentally although at the time I thought a PhD was a worthwhile use of time I am less convinced now & indeed do not expect the University or School systems to continue in the modes that are essentially unchanged from Victorian times. An AI that can win at GO can apply algorithms to win at all the advanced fields of study from the Supreme Court Justices to theoretical physics. For now that likely reads like heresy, a few more years & many more will see it, a few years more & it will be reality.

Regards,