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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#257790

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 2:40 pm

BobbyD
I worry 2.5 million units a year isn't enough unless you find a niche, and BEV is no longer a niche...


Having listened to the callers to Farage on LBC re the Extinction Rebellion demonstration it is clear to me that most of the callers haven't a clue about renewable energy, BEV, science, environment,.... almost anything technical, with most folk reverting to either what they knew decades ago or quoting who ever they thought was right, quite unable to figure things out for themselves.

BEV may be old hat here, but most of the population haven't a clue.

BEV is still a niche product for most car driving punters.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#257794

Postby BobbyD » October 14th, 2019, 2:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
I worry 2.5 million units a year isn't enough unless you find a niche, and BEV is no longer a niche...


Having listened to the callers to Farage on LBC re the Extinction Rebellion demonstration it is clear to me that most of the callers haven't a clue about renewable energy, BEV, science, environment,.... almost anything technical, with most folk reverting to either what they knew decades ago or quoting who ever they thought was right, quite unable to figure things out for themselves.

BEV may be old hat here, but most of the population haven't a clue.

BEV is still a niche product for most car driving punters.

Regards,


When Tesla started making BEV's it was a niche with no competition, that is no longer the case and is about to be a lot less the case. General electric newcomers with no mass production experience aren't going to be able to count on being able to bob along under such benign waves as Tesla did. If they want time to learn from their mistakes they are going to have to find a more specific sub-niche, or be far more active in absorbing what the big boys have spent a century learning about how to put cars together.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#257820

Postby odysseus2000 » October 14th, 2019, 4:53 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
I worry 2.5 million units a year isn't enough unless you find a niche, and BEV is no longer a niche...


Having listened to the callers to Farage on LBC re the Extinction Rebellion demonstration it is clear to me that most of the callers haven't a clue about renewable energy, BEV, science, environment,.... almost anything technical, with most folk reverting to either what they knew decades ago or quoting who ever they thought was right, quite unable to figure things out for themselves.

BEV may be old hat here, but most of the population haven't a clue.

BEV is still a niche product for most car driving punters.

Regards,


When Tesla started making BEV's it was a niche with no competition, that is no longer the case and is about to be a lot less the case. General electric newcomers with no mass production experience aren't going to be able to count on being able to bob along under such benign waves as Tesla did. If they want time to learn from their mistakes they are going to have to find a more specific sub-niche, or be far more active in absorbing what the big boys have spent a century learning about how to put cars together.


We differ here. I believe Tesla are doing the stuff that legacy once did before they became complacent.

The car trade is now back to where it was in early days of Ford. Legacy looks big and strong but it has huge costs and investments that it is not writing off fast enough and it is now only a matter of time before the Chinese figure out how to flog BEV cars undercutting legacy which will have some very painful troubles imho.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258071

Postby redsturgeon » October 15th, 2019, 4:38 pm

I passed the Tesla store on the A4 coming into London today, stopped in traffic so had a good look at the front ends of the Tesla S, X and 3 they had in the window.

I must say that the S and the X look a lot better than the 3 from that angle. The 3 looks like it should have something in the front rather than a blank panel that looks like there should be a grill there.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258157

Postby BobbyD » October 16th, 2019, 4:23 am

Cheaper Taycan 4s available for pre-order, delivery early 2020.


Porsche Steps Up Tesla Battle With $117,000 Electric Taycan

...Porsche is intensifying its battle against Tesla Inc. with the unveiling of a 105,607-euro ($116,590) version of the electric Taycan that’s pitched at a similar price point to the top-line version of the U.S. company’s Model S.

...The Porsche 4S can drive 407 kilometers (253 miles) on a single charge, rising to 463 kilometers with a bigger battery. That’s still less than the 102,700-euro Model S Performance with a range of 610 kilometers.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ric-taycan

From Porsche's UK site the 4S's RRP is £83,367, as always lots of extras available if you want to pay more - https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/

That's without £3500 government subsidy. so under £80,000.

Much of the 4S’s technical make-up is the same as pricier Taycans, with two electric motors across both axles for four-wheel drive and a two-speed transmission for acceleration. However, the rear motor is 80mm shorter than it is in the Turbo and Turbo S, while it also receives smaller brakes, down to 360mm and six pistons on the front and 358mm and four pistons at the rear.

Exterior styling changes include smaller 19in wheels, red painted calipers and a revised bodykit including a different front apron, side sills and rear diffuser. Dynamic LED lights remain standard fitment. Part-leather is standard, but Porsche also offers a leather-free cabin with recycled materials.

As with other Taycans, it comes with three years of access to Ionity’s rapid chargers and the Porsche Charging Service. Customers also receive a driving experience at the brand’s Silverstone Experience Centre.


https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... 3000-price

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258253

Postby odysseus2000 » October 16th, 2019, 3:48 pm

30,000 more starlink satellites:

https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/11 ... 26886?s=20

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258365

Postby BobbyD » October 17th, 2019, 5:47 am

Tesla Model S P100D Vs Porsche Taycan Turbo S At The Strip - https://insideevs.com/news/376542/video ... he-taycan/


Displays on older models of Tesla electric vehicles are bricking because of shoddy flash memory, according to reports in Inside EVs and Motherboard.

The specific problem is with an onboard NAND-based flash storage chip, the eMMC, which is embedded in some models of Tesla’s Media Control Unit (primarily MCUv1, though MCUv2 may be affected to a lesser degree). Experts told both sites that Tesla’s cars are writing so many logs to the chip that the cars are wearing out the flash chips—an issue that is technically inevitable , but is happening a lot sooner than it should. The chip’s failure screws with functions on the Tesla’s touchscreen, which users on forums wrote could make driving the car inconvenient or even slightly dangerous (issues claimed include loss of the ability to defrost windows or charge the car).

057 Technology’s Jason Hughes told Inside EVs that when the 8 gigabyte flash card was not an issue, but over the years “Tesla’s firmware image size has gone from about 300MB to the full 1GB maximum size.” Hughes added that while the chip is designed to minimize long-term degradation via a technique called wear leveling, in which it spreads wear across “unused sections of the flash memory to extend the effective number of write cycles available,” the onboard computer also creates “excessive” logs. Along with other data caching, this results in “no free space left for additional wear leveling to compensate for the excessive log writing,” Hughes told the site.

The result is data corruption and major issues with the car. This takes years to happen (the issue is reportedly happening in cars at least four years old), but the loss of the digital dashboard is a bigger issue for Teslas than other cars. It’s also unusual for flash memory to burn out before other parts in most electronics, Tom’s Hardware noted.

“I see it in the wild,” YouTuber Rich Benoit, who repairs Teslas, told Motherboard. “I own a shop that repairs these cars and the older vehicles are starting to show their signs of age.”


- https://gizmodo.com/flash-memory-on-som ... 1839084282

Some older Teslas are spontaneously bricking because their embedded flash memory is wearing out, according to three independent Tesla repair professionals who have studied the issue.

The issue is with a flash storage chip called the eMMC that is embedded on a board called the MCU1. According to experts who have studied the problem, Teslas are writing vehicle logs to this flash storage chip so much that it eventually goes bad. The issue has been known in the Tesla community since at least May, when Tesla repair YouTuber Rich Benoit spoke to another Tesla repair professional named Phil Sadow about it in a video.

“Tesla’s got a problem. They create so many logs in the car, they write to [the chip] so fast that it basically burns them out. They have a finite amount of writes,” Sadow said in the video. “When this burns out, you wake up to a black screen [in the car’s center console.] There’s nothing there. No climate control. You can generally drive the car, but it won’t charge.”


- https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qvgx ... tesla-cars

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258403

Postby odysseus2000 » October 17th, 2019, 9:53 am

Rather naughty of Tesla to have not prevented this issue by wear levelling or different tech.

Someone else might be getting fired for this kind of relatively elementary mistake, given the wear rates of chips are known and the expected usage.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258408

Postby dspp » October 17th, 2019, 9:59 am

BobbyD wrote:Tesla Model S P100D Vs Porsche Taycan Turbo S At The Strip - https://insideevs.com/news/376542/video ... he-taycan/


Displays on older models of Tesla electric vehicles are bricking because of shoddy flash memory, according to reports in Inside EVs and Motherboard.

The specific problem is with an onboard NAND-based flash storage chip, the eMMC, which is embedded in some models of Tesla’s Media Control Unit (primarily MCUv1, though MCUv2 may be affected to a lesser degree). Experts told both sites that Tesla’s cars are writing so many logs to the chip that the cars are wearing out the flash chips—an issue that is technically inevitable , but is happening a lot sooner than it should. The chip’s failure screws with functions on the Tesla’s touchscreen, which users on forums wrote could make driving the car inconvenient or even slightly dangerous (issues claimed include loss of the ability to defrost windows or charge the car).

057 Technology’s Jason Hughes told Inside EVs that when the 8 gigabyte flash card was not an issue, but over the years “Tesla’s firmware image size has gone from about 300MB to the full 1GB maximum size.” Hughes added that while the chip is designed to minimize long-term degradation via a technique called wear leveling, in which it spreads wear across “unused sections of the flash memory to extend the effective number of write cycles available,” the onboard computer also creates “excessive” logs. Along with other data caching, this results in “no free space left for additional wear leveling to compensate for the excessive log writing,” Hughes told the site.

The result is data corruption and major issues with the car. This takes years to happen (the issue is reportedly happening in cars at least four years old), but the loss of the digital dashboard is a bigger issue for Teslas than other cars. It’s also unusual for flash memory to burn out before other parts in most electronics, Tom’s Hardware noted.

“I see it in the wild,” YouTuber Rich Benoit, who repairs Teslas, told Motherboard. “I own a shop that repairs these cars and the older vehicles are starting to show their signs of age.”


- https://gizmodo.com/flash-memory-on-som ... 1839084282

Some older Teslas are spontaneously bricking because their embedded flash memory is wearing out, according to three independent Tesla repair professionals who have studied the issue.

The issue is with a flash storage chip called the eMMC that is embedded on a board called the MCU1. According to experts who have studied the problem, Teslas are writing vehicle logs to this flash storage chip so much that it eventually goes bad. The issue has been known in the Tesla community since at least May, when Tesla repair YouTuber Rich Benoit spoke to another Tesla repair professional named Phil Sadow about it in a video.

“Tesla’s got a problem. They create so many logs in the car, they write to [the chip] so fast that it basically burns them out. They have a finite amount of writes,” Sadow said in the video. “When this burns out, you wake up to a black screen [in the car’s center console.] There’s nothing there. No climate control. You can generally drive the car, but it won’t charge.”


- https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qvgx ... tesla-cars


Flash memory does wear out. We encountered this issue at work in a design we were working on and it is indeed something to take seriously if doing industrial stuff (which a car is). I have no insight into the quality of the flash supplier that Tesla are using, so I would be reluctant to throw words like 'shoddy' about loosely. There are better and worse flash makers in this respect.

This won't be a Tesla specific thing, but I suspect Tesla will be more exposed to it than others because of the design. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see replacenable flash in future designs. How replaceable is it in the current designs (HW3, 2.5, 2 ?) ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258427

Postby dspp » October 17th, 2019, 11:06 am

SUV trends meet BEV trends
courtesy John Kemp Reuters
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/ ... -mark.html

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258470

Postby dspp » October 17th, 2019, 1:22 pm

US defence gets ready to lob $$$ at Space X Starlink
https://www.janes.com/article/91995/aus ... challenges
- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258479

Postby BobbyD » October 17th, 2019, 1:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Rather naughty of Tesla to have not prevented this issue by wear levelling or different tech.

Someone else might be getting fired for this kind of relatively elementary mistake, given the wear rates of chips are known and the expected usage.

Regards,


dspp wrote:Flash memory does wear out. We encountered this issue at work in a design we were working on and it is indeed something to take seriously if doing industrial stuff (which a car is). I have no insight into the quality of the flash supplier that Tesla are using, so I would be reluctant to throw words like 'shoddy' about loosely. There are better and worse flash makers in this respect.

This won't be a Tesla specific thing, but I suspect Tesla will be more exposed to it than others because of the design. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see replacenable flash in future designs. How replaceable is it in the current designs (HW3, 2.5, 2 ?) ?

regards, dspp


Whilst not Tesla specific I suspect it might be Tesla disposed given their comparatively higher geek factor, and their idea that their cars are in large part mobile transmission and reception units, or OTA as they like to call it. There is no particular reason that a BEV should generate any more data than an ICE as far as I can see, and yet this isn't a problem anybody else seems to have had. AD might be a source of large amounts of logged data, but nobody else uses their customers to beta test experimental systems in the wild.

Apparently this is the relevant circuit boardand chip:

Image

Image

- Photos from https://translate.google.com/translate? ... chips.html

Google translate used.

No idea how difficult it is to extract the board in the first place.

Also found this:

Many stories out there tell that the flash storage (eMMC) on MCU1 will wear out sooner or later. This is known with flash memory and at that moment your Tesla will die. It won't charge and possibly only drive in limb-mode.

I have a 2013 S85 and a 2018 100D and the first one still has an MCU1 which has been running for 5,5 years now.

If the MCU dies Tesla will charge EUR 3000 (I'm in Europe) for a MCU replacement while only a small memory chip has failed.


- Price of course is not necessarily related to cost.

I'm not sure how his attempt to swap out the memory himself went, but the thread is 22 pages long...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258482

Postby dspp » October 17th, 2019, 1:51 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Apparently this is the relevant circuit boardand chip:


Also found this:

Many stories out there tell that the flash storage (eMMC) on MCU1 will wear out sooner or later. This is known with flash memory and at that moment your Tesla will die. It won't charge and possibly only drive in limb-mode.

I have a 2013 S85 and a 2018 100D and the first one still has an MCU1 which has been running for 5,5 years now.

If the MCU dies Tesla will charge EUR 3000 (I'm in Europe) for a MCU replacement while only a small memory chip has failed.


- Price of course is not necessarily related to cost.

I'm not sure how his attempt to swap out the memory himself went, but the thread is 22 pages long...


Thank you very much BD.

That photo does not seem to indicate a socketed flash. Nor does the €3,000 for a replacement. I don't have the time to drill into this - have you figured out whether this is socketed or not ?

All electronics is susceptible to this, it is not just a Tesla thing.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258493

Postby BobbyD » October 17th, 2019, 2:28 pm

dspp wrote:Thank you very much BD.

That photo does not seem to indicate a socketed flash. Nor does the €3,000 for a replacement. I don't have the time to drill into this - have you figured out whether this is socketed or not ?



Forgot the link to the thread https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... u1.152489/

He is (as of May 13th, but I haven't read much further) planning on getting a local electronics shop to help with desoldering, so my suspicion is it isn't socketed but based on one piece of evidence of unknown quality.

dspp wrote:All electronics is susceptible to this, it is not just a Tesla thing.



I'm not suggesting that the same chip would perform worse in a Tesla, my suspicion is that a Tesla performs more writes, and so the same chip would show degradation sooner in a Tesla than in another car.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258528

Postby odysseus2000 » October 17th, 2019, 4:47 pm

Looking at the images it looks to be a relatively simple surface mount re-work, something I could do with the tools I have.

$3000 seems a massive over price for this simple job.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258531

Postby BobbyD » October 17th, 2019, 4:58 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Looking at the images it looks to be a relatively simple surface mount re-work, something I could do with the tools I have.

$3000 seems a massive over price for this simple job.

Regards,



Charge £2000, and you'll soon have your own Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258543

Postby odysseus2000 » October 17th, 2019, 5:33 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Looking at the images it looks to be a relatively simple surface mount re-work, something I could do with the tools I have.

$3000 seems a massive over price for this simple job.

Regards,



Charge £2000, and you'll soon have your own Tesla...


You sound like my bee business partner.

She is endless wanting to raise prices.

So we raised some prices and at the last show had the same turnover as the same show last year and she thought this was great.

I thought it was a poor result as I want to be growing turnover and keeping similar margins.

Sure if you are doing a one off trade you might get away with extortionate pricing, but if you want repeat custom imho you have to charge something reasonable or see punters refuse to buy and go to competitors, or you have spend a fortune on marketing and advertising as does Dyson and some legacy auto like Mercedes.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258624

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 18th, 2019, 12:06 am

Useful overview of the current plans for Starship and Starlink which is now planned to be an array of 30,000 (!) satellites. Pretty incredible. First 8 minutes of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g9d5GwxI-U

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258681

Postby BobbyD » October 18th, 2019, 9:37 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Sure if you are doing a one off trade you might get away with extortionate pricing, but if you want repeat custom imho you have to charge something reasonable or see punters refuse to buy and go to competitors, or you have spend a fortune on marketing and advertising as does Dyson and some legacy auto like Mercedes.


Why would there be repeat custom, or are you expecting another part of Tesla's electronics to start packing up en masse? £1000 cheaper than the official Tesla fix is hardly profiteering, something which might not be said of St. Elon.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#258702

Postby odysseus2000 » October 18th, 2019, 10:27 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Sure if you are doing a one off trade you might get away with extortionate pricing, but if you want repeat custom imho you have to charge something reasonable or see punters refuse to buy and go to competitors, or you have spend a fortune on marketing and advertising as does Dyson and some legacy auto like Mercedes.


Why would there be repeat custom, or are you expecting another part of Tesla's electronics to start packing up en masse? £1000 cheaper than the official Tesla fix is hardly profiteering, something which might not be said of St. Elon.


It of course depends on the conditions.

To change the part is a relatively low cost operation, but if you have to insure against some unexpected failure the cost will be almost all insurance.

So if I had one & this problem occurred I might try & do it myself. If it goes wrong I would tolerate the cost of having to find another second hand unit to work on. I.e. I would not pay insurance.

If I was doing this as a service I would have to have insurance, because if the process fails I would have to replace the unit or else tell folk upfront their is no guarantee & thence get no customers.

As I read this the cost is disproportionate to what a technician would charge. He/she might be on minimum wage or not many times more, but he/she would not have the insurance overhead, that would be carried by someone else & with a proprietary part, unless the part is cloned possibly violating patent/copyright, will cost many times the production cost. Anyone who has had to buy dealer parts knows how this works. On my Mercedes a £10 ish pipe with a proprietary Mercedes fitting cost me well over £100.

So the reasonable cost is hard to determine without knowing what the price of replacement boards are & what the insurance premiums would be.

I can easily see this being several hundreds, but $3000 seems excessive to me & looks more like pricing to what the market can take with no relation to what the cost is.

If the reports of the car being a brick due to the inability to charge are correct with this fault then one can see how the price might easily be jacked to what the market can stand, even if I think this is bad business.

I am however speculating wildly here just giving an opinion on what the job would cost if it was a simple replacement & realising that insurance would dominate. But I have no idea about this unit or what has to be done to make the repair etc etc.

It is also worth noting that according to the Munroe tear downs, Tesla have taken to making their own dedicated hardware, designing & fabricating their own chips whereas most consumer electronics uses off the shelf. As Tesla develops more & more of the electronics will become integrated into individual chips making cloning & reverse engineering much more trouble & leading to reduced assembly & Bill of Material costs as there will be far less chips to pick & place.

Regards,


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