Musk endeavours

[Howard]

It is entirely possible for Tesla to be both a brilliant company and for the share price to be overvalued. I don't myself like buying momentum stocks in any size because I want a chair to sit on when the music stops.

I think Musk is quite a creative individual. However, I am not looking to invest.

I'm not trying to persuade anyone to invest. I have noted previously that growing at 50% yoy it would take Tesla five years or so to grow into its current valuation as an auto maker which is the central part of the valuation thesis. That is a nosebleed valuation, up in the stratosphere !

However, the logical corollary to the publicly stated Tesla game plan, is that Tesla might simultaneously achieve mass market sales and continue to be the market leader in:
- generalised unbounded mobility autonomy;
- global BEV charging network;
- energy storage at global scale for various use-cases (short & long term intermittency, grid support, arbitrage, etc);
- delivery of mobile infotainment etc;
- global ride-hailing network;
- global automotive insurance offering;
- global solar PV sales & installation, potentially also with home battery & home heating;

Achieving any one of those would be significant in investment terms. However it is fairly logical that if Tesla achieves the central mission (5m cars in half a decade) then it will almost certainly have to achieve (or be able to achieve) many of those other items. In which case Tesla is potentially undervalued at present, and that is why I personally continue to hold (and because I'm too scared to touch !).

regards, dspp

While we are debating some incredible claims for Tesla, would you be able to justify your claim above that Tesla might "continue to be the market leader in: - global automotive insurance offering;" I note you underlined the word "continue" for emphasis.

Surely you can't be serious? Like Ody's claims this deserves a source. It would be interesting to read how many cars Tesla is insuring in Europe for example? More than zero?

And as market leader, how many cars are they insuring in the USA? Just to help, Geico insure 24 million motor vehicles.

Tesla may be acting as a sort of agency for an insurance company (State National) in the USA but we have to be real on this thread surely.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

then a micro market in China, ...

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/ch ... -2020.html

Tesla finished 2020 in the #1 model spot in China. Some micro market !

regards, dspp

You do realise that somebody coming first in a market is an inevitability, not an indication of the market's size?

However, the logical corollary to the publicly stated Tesla game plan, is that Tesla might simultaneously achieve mass market sales and continue to be the market leader in:
- generalised unbounded mobility autonomy;
- global BEV charging network;
- energy storage at global scale for various use-cases (short & long term intermittency, grid support, arbitrage, etc);
- delivery of mobile infotainment etc;
- global ride-hailing network;
- global automotive insurance offering;
- global solar PV sales & installation, potentially also with home battery & home heating;

Wow! erm, seriously?

[Howard]

then a micro market in China, ...

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/ch ... -2020.html

Tesla finished 2020 in the #1 model spot in China. Some micro market !

regards, dspp

You do realise that somebody coming first in a market is an inevitability, not an indication of the market's size?

However, the logical corollary to the publicly stated Tesla game plan, is that Tesla might simultaneously achieve mass market sales and continue to be the market leader in:
- generalised unbounded mobility autonomy;
- global BEV charging network;
- energy storage at global scale for various use-cases (short & long term intermittency, grid support, arbitrage, etc);
- delivery of mobile infotainment etc;
- global ride-hailing network;
- global automotive insurance offering;
- global solar PV sales & installation, potentially also with home battery & home heating;

Wow! erm, seriously?

Do you think someone has taken up my Waitrose wine recommendation?

regards

Howard

[johnhemming]

What Musk is good at is creating an environment that encourages technical innovation. I am really impressed by the continual innovation in SpaceX.

[dspp]

While we are debating some incredible claims for Tesla, would you be able to justify your claim above that Tesla might "continue to be the market leader in: - global automotive insurance offering;" I note you underlined the word "continue" for emphasis.

Howard

Indeed that one is a stretch But nonetheless if they pull it off it will restructure yet another industry.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/ch ... -2020.html

Tesla finished 2020 in the #1 model spot in China. Some micro market !

regards, dspp

You do realise that somebody coming first in a market is an inevitability, not an indication of the market's size?

However, the logical corollary to the publicly stated Tesla game plan, is that Tesla might simultaneously achieve mass market sales and continue to be the market leader in:
- generalised unbounded mobility autonomy;
- global BEV charging network;
- energy storage at global scale for various use-cases (short & long term intermittency, grid support, arbitrage, etc);
- delivery of mobile infotainment etc;
- global ride-hailing network;
- global automotive insurance offering;
- global solar PV sales & installation, potentially also with home battery & home heating;

Wow! erm, seriously?

Do you think someone has taken up my Waitrose wine recommendation?

regards

Howard

I can't imagine anything as refined as wine caused that reality distortion.

[dspp]

You do realise that somebody coming first in a market is an inevitability, not an indication of the market's size?



Wow! erm, seriously?

Do you think someone has taken up my Waitrose wine recommendation?

regards

Howard

I can't imagine anything as refined as wine caused that reality distortion.

Steady on, I've managed to graduate to WineSoc cheapest

[BobbyD]

Do you think someone has taken up my Waitrose wine recommendation?

regards

Howard

I can't imagine anything as refined as wine caused that reality distortion.

Steady on, I've managed to graduate to WineSoc cheapest

You're hallucinating a ride hailing company bigger than UBER, I thought maybe something stronger might be involved!

Guoxuan High-Tech Co Ltd., a Chinese battery manufacturer, has introduced this month a new high-energy-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) lithium-ion battery cell.

The company claims that the new cells are rated at 210 Wh/kg, which is a world record and on par with NCM523 lithium-ion cells, not far from NCM622. The previous record was 200 Wh/kg, set also by Guoxuan, in 2020.

...One of the most interesting things is that Guoxuan targets 230 Wh/kg this year and 260 Wh/kg in 2022.

- https://insideevs.com/news/481770/guoxu ... ery-cells/


Interesting follow up:

Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV breaks sales record again

...Battery suppliers (ordered by battery capacity delivered)

CATL
Xingheng
Guoxuan
Great Power

- https://pushevs.com/2020/12/01/wuling-h ... ord-again/

Guoxuan are of course 73.5% not owned by VW.

[Adamski]

Tesla's results are being announced this Wednesday, at the close of US markets at 4pm ET, 9pm GMT. Apple and Boeing also releasing their earnings reports then.

Could potentially be a day of reckoning for Tesla on Thursday (or kick start another bull run?). Goldman and Citigroup have also said "Corners of the U.S. equity universe are showing signs of froth, but that shouldn’t put the broader market at risk". We shall see Thursday morning. This could be interesting week ahead.

[BobbyD]

Now that's what I call a battery pack:

The Lion’s City 12 E can carry up to 88 passengers, the MAN Lion’s City 18 E up to 120 people. The high passenger capacity is also due to the optimised seating area at the rear, resulting from the omission of the engine tower. This means that the e-bus has additional seats and more pleasant and friendly lighting conditions. To power its e-bus, MAN relies on a central motor on the rear axle or, in the articulated bus, two central motors on the second and third axle, which has a hugely positive effect on the handling of the articulated version. The two driven axles increase stability and thus safety and achieve maximum energy recuperation when braking. The power for the fully electric driveline comes from the batteries on the vehicle roof, which have an installed capacity of 480 kWh (solo) and 640 kWh (articulated bus). MAN relies on sophisticated battery cell technology from the Group’s modular system. This allows MAN to reliably ensure a range of 200 km, up to 270 km in favourable conditions, over the entire service life of the batteries.

- https://press.mantruckandbus.com/corpor ... r-to-date/

MAN are, unsurprisingly, using a modular system with 6 or 8 30 cell modules per pack. The reason for roof mounting on e-busses if it hasn't previously been alighted on is apparently to remove the battery from the impact zone in most collisions.

- https://www.bus.man.eu/de/en/city-buses ... ology.html

[dspp]

Now that's what I call a battery pack:

The Lion’s City 12 E can carry up to 88 passengers, the MAN Lion’s City 18 E up to 120 people. The high passenger capacity is also due to the optimised seating area at the rear, resulting from the omission of the engine tower. This means that the e-bus has additional seats and more pleasant and friendly lighting conditions. To power its e-bus, MAN relies on a central motor on the rear axle or, in the articulated bus, two central motors on the second and third axle, which has a hugely positive effect on the handling of the articulated version. The two driven axles increase stability and thus safety and achieve maximum energy recuperation when braking. The power for the fully electric driveline comes from the batteries on the vehicle roof, which have an installed capacity of 480 kWh (solo) and 640 kWh (articulated bus). MAN relies on sophisticated battery cell technology from the Group’s modular system. This allows MAN to reliably ensure a range of 200 km, up to 270 km in favourable conditions, over the entire service life of the batteries.

- https://press.mantruckandbus.com/corpor ... r-to-date/

MAN are, unsurprisingly, using a modular system with 6 or 8 30 cell modules per pack. The reason for roof mounting on e-busses if it hasn't previously been alighted on is apparently to remove the battery from the impact zone in most collisions.

- https://www.bus.man.eu/de/en/city-buses ... ology.html

Just one CCS connector for 640kWh ?

[BobbyD]

Just one CCS connector for 640kWh ?

~Under 3 hours for a full charge on the 480kWh and under 4 for the 640kWh according to an uncopyable part of the second link, on the MAN battery technology slide.

[dspp]

Just one CCS connector for 640kWh ?

~Under 3 hours for a full charge on the 480kWh and under 4 for the 640kWh according to an uncopyable part of the second link, on the MAN battery technology slide.

Interesting, doesn't give a lot of time for tapering .......

[BobbyD]

Just one CCS connector for 640kWh ?

~Under 3 hours for a full charge on the 480kWh and under 4 for the 640kWh according to an uncopyable part of the second link, on the MAN battery technology slide.

Interesting, doesn't give a lot of time for tapering .......

More detail here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjtNQoRtpY&vl=en

Each module: up to 760V, 550kg w/o carrier, 80 kWh.

Bespoke NMC chemistry.

[BobbyD]

Shell agrees deal to buy electric car-charging company ubitricity

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ubitricity

[odysseus2000]

Haters will enjoy latest Munroe tear down of model 3 2021:

https://youtu.be/KOfnXGc0H5k

[BobbyD]

Haters will enjoy latest Munroe tear down of model 3 2021:

https://youtu.be/KOfnXGc0H5k

St. Sandy is going to get excommunicated...

What's you opinion on it Ody?

[odysseus2000]

Haters will enjoy latest Munroe tear down of model 3 2021:

https://youtu.be/KOfnXGc0H5k

St. Sandy is going to get excommunicated...

What's you opinion on it Ody?

Good for Tesla to have their short comings exposed.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Good for Tesla to have their short comings exposed.

Regards,

But is the more worrying shortcoming the shortcoming, or the fact it was previously exposed and hasn't been fixed in 3 years? I remember the number of parts in the rear wheelwell being discussed first time around. For a company which is supposed to eschew final versions in favour of continual improvement this appears somewhat baffling.

[odysseus2000]

Good for Tesla to have their short comings exposed.

Regards,

But is the more worrying shortcoming the shortcoming, or the fact it was previously exposed and hasn't been fixed in 3 years? I remember the number of parts in the rear wheelwell being discussed first time around. For a company which is supposed to eschew final versions in favour of continual improvement this appears somewhat baffling.

All the effort has gone into the model y casting, presumably the model 3 casting will follow. Tesla have bought several (12?) casting machines recently.

Regards,