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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262870

Postby odysseus2000 » November 7th, 2019, 9:00 pm

I am interested in how many jobs now require high mileage car driving, say in the 20k+ miles per year category.

At one time there were sales reps whizzing up and down motorways as this was the only way to put product and potential customer together.

However, we now live in a UK when something ordered one day often appears in a few days, often the next day. E.g. on Sunday I ordered some horse shoe nails, they were with me by lunch on Monday. Clearly there are guys in vans who are doing incredible mileages, but as the ability to make by additive manufacture rises will even these high mileage trips begin to decline. It is now becoming commonplace for a supplier to send not a physical product but instead the gcode to make the device in an additive or 3d printer. An acquaintance was telling me that the US airforce no longer ships many spare parts, but instead uses 3d metal printers to make what ever is needed on site. The advantages to this are large and compelling and I see more and more of this capability and falling prices.

Additionally via online images and video I can get a very good idea, usually much better than having a sales person demonstrate it, about anything I might want and can order it having seen such presentations without the need for any other kind of interaction.

Clearly there are jobs were someone needs to drive a car and turn up, Thinking off the top my head things like emergency doctors, police, entertainers, specialised technicians for repair and setup/de-setup of big kit, outdoor broadcasts, journalists/reporters... and it looks very likely that many of these jobs can not become extinct, but it also looks to me like many other jobs are becoming extinct. Or am I wrong. Are there other classes of jobs that are expanding and which require lots of folk to drive very long distances in cars?

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262878

Postby dspp » November 7th, 2019, 10:03 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:An acquaintance was telling me that the US airforce no longer ships many spare parts, but instead uses 3d metal printers to make what ever is needed on site. The advantages to this are large and compelling and I see more and more of this capability and falling prices.


Your acquaintance is mistaken. They are running trials with this in a few locations for a very limited number of parts. Yes it may come, but not as quick as you think.The disadvantages are great, and equally compelling.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262903

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 3:02 am

BobbyD wrote:
The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.


Speaking of which following Audi Brussels being certified carbon neutral, and the id.3 becoming the first car to emerge from a carbon neutral production process:

BENTLEY MOTORS BECOMES THE UK'S FIRST CARBON NEUTRAL LUXURY AUTOMOTIVE FACTORY

British marque aims to become the world’s most sustainable luxury automotive manufacturer
100% of electricity sourced for its site in Crewe, England, is from renewable generation
Factory headquarters certified by the Carbon Trust to PAS 2060 Carbon Neutral standard
Brand is accelerating its journey towards electrification
Bentley to offer hybrid variant of all models by 2023 and a BEV by 2025


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/newsite ... ve-factory

If the motivation behind electric is to reduce CO2 emissions, it really is time that subsidies reflected CO2 emitted during production.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262933

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:37 am

BobbyD wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.


Speaking of which following Audi Brussels being certified carbon neutral, and the id.3 becoming the first car to emerge from a carbon neutral production process:

BENTLEY MOTORS BECOMES THE UK'S FIRST CARBON NEUTRAL LUXURY AUTOMOTIVE FACTORY

British marque aims to become the world’s most sustainable luxury automotive manufacturer
100% of electricity sourced for its site in Crewe, England, is from renewable generation
Factory headquarters certified by the Carbon Trust to PAS 2060 Carbon Neutral standard
Brand is accelerating its journey towards electrification
Bentley to offer hybrid variant of all models by 2023 and a BEV by 2025


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/newsite ... ve-factory

If the motivation behind electric is to reduce CO2 emissions, it really is time that subsidies reflected CO2 emitted during production.


Do these carbon neutral figures include battery production?

The Bentley article does not, as far as I can tell, discuss anything other than their UK factory.

For the other claims such as the VW one about their latest models, does this also include the co2 emission from battery production, something that I believe VW contract out to suppliers?

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262937

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:43 am

Tesla comes top in Moodys car transition assessment:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-top-sco ... ssessment/

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262941

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:49 am

Model 3 most efficient ev produced:

https://electrek.co/2019/11/07/2020-tesla-model-3/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#262943

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:52 am

Praise for Chinese made model 3:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/11 ... 96225?s=20

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Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262956

Postby Howard » November 8th, 2019, 9:58 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Praise for Chinese made model 3:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/11 ... 96225?s=20

Regards,


Is this a production model? Have Tesla started producing cars for sale at the Chinese plant? I thought they were still waiting for a permit from the Chinese authorities to start production?

And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263008

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 1:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Do these carbon neutral figures include battery production?

The Bentley article does not, as far as I can tell, discuss anything other than their UK factory.

For the other claims such as the VW one about their latest models, does this also include the co2 emission from battery production, something that I believe VW contract out to suppliers?

Regards,


Glad you asked!

The figures aren't difficult to follow. In the case of Audi Brussels and Bentley the site has been certified carbon neutral, eg. parts in + 0g CO2 -> Car out.

The Crewe HQ pretty much is Bentley.

The Bentley Motors factory is a fully integrated site – all aspects of car production from Design, Engineering, Manufacture, Quality, and Sales & Marketing take place in Crewe


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/company ... nd-figures

A small number of continentals are assembled in Dresden, but the vast majority of Bentleys are born in Crewe.

id.3:

Everything following comes from the same source, full details at the bottom, each fig or quote hyperlinked. These are potted highlights, anybody with a genuine interest would probably find it worthwhile reading the entire document, it's not long.

Image

- *

VW have picked out the battery, as you have, for special attention because of the massive contribution it makes to production CO2 levels.

Image

- *

The battery cells for ID.3 are supplied by the Korean company LG Chem, which manufactures the cells in Europe and invested in a production facility in Poland. A long time ago, Volkswagen agreed with LG Chem that only certified green electricity would be used to manufacture the battery cells. CO2 emissions from this sector are thus reduced to almost zero.


- *

Image


- *

You'll also have noted that Northvolt, who one has to assume are intended to supply a decent wack of VW's batteries in the future since they own 20% of the company and are building a joint VW/Northvolt project in Salzgitter, state upfront that their aim is to create the greenest batteries, and have started out building a plant in northern Sweden which is located both close to material sources and a massive hydro dam.

* - https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... utral.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263009

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 1:37 pm

Howard wrote:And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.


Ten Cent only own 5% of Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263018

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 2:33 pm

If the VW figures are correct I applaud their success and would like to see all human activity powered by renewable energy. This now looks relatively easy to do and would both create jobs, save money and be testament to what sensible folk can achieve when the time is right.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263054

Postby Howard » November 8th, 2019, 5:15 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.


Ten Cent only own 5% of Tesla...


Surprise suprise ;)

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263087

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 7:59 pm

Volkswagen starts pre-production in first plant purely focused on e-mobility in China

Pre-production in plant from SAIC VOLKSWAGEN in Anting, Shanghai, begins only one year after ground-breaking

...First vehicle is an electric-only Volkswagen ID. model for the Chinese market

...Pre-production begins just a few days after the first global ID. manufacturing started in Zwickau, Germany. Full series production in the new Anting factory is planned to commence in October 2020, with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. The MEB production plays a key role in Volkswagen Group China’s e-mobility strategy, as it strives to transform into a provider of sustainable mobility. The Anting plant is scheduled to start ID. model production at the same time with a plant by FAW-Volkswagen in Foshan, resulting in a combined capacity of 600,000 units per year.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... china-5548

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263118

Postby dspp » November 8th, 2019, 9:43 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Volkswagen starts pre-production in first plant purely focused on e-mobility in China

Pre-production in plant from SAIC VOLKSWAGEN in Anting, Shanghai, begins only one year after ground-breaking

...First vehicle is an electric-only Volkswagen ID. model for the Chinese market

...Pre-production begins just a few days after the first global ID. manufacturing started in Zwickau, Germany. Full series production in the new Anting factory is planned to commence in October 2020, with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. The MEB production plays a key role in Volkswagen Group China’s e-mobility strategy, as it strives to transform into a provider of sustainable mobility. The Anting plant is scheduled to start ID. model production at the same time with a plant by FAW-Volkswagen in Foshan, resulting in a combined capacity of 600,000 units per year.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... china-5548


At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263124

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 10:30 pm

dspp wrote:At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp


Make it, rebadger, kill?

Life is certainly going to get hard, although depending on sector and market maybe not impossible. It isn't unforeseeable, and I'm not saying it's likely, that we might end up with Japan running on Hydrogen, a significant number of the United States trying to squeeze electric in a second Trump term fuelled by Big Oil once it becomes clear a return to coal powered cars isn't feasible, and Europe moving to Electric.

Some smaller companies might have customers quite happy to have their emissions fines lumped on to the sticker price, although with electric having a sportier whizz that's probably quite limited, as engine noise is only going to compensate for getting lapped so many times, so big trucks maybe?

Tradeable credits not only offer an incentive to those who overachieve their emissions targets but a way out for anybody who can manufacture petrol cars efficiently enough to absorb the extra cost.

...and you can always ring up VW and order 100,000 units of MEB in 24 months to tide you over.

That leaves Africa and Asia. Given the Chinese BEV push I'd say Asia is spoken for, and Africa is perfect for BEV, but that doesn't actually mean it's going to get there any time soon.

I have no doubt blood gonna spill, but equally you might find some manufacturers simply changing their profile or sub-contracting a part of their range, eg. Ford buying 600,000 units of MEB for European small cars, whilst electrifying other parts of the business themselves, whilst others desperately scramble around for a partner to give them more scale and share the costs.

It's certainly going to be interesting, although the only manufacturer whose future I have all that much certainty about is VW, and that only lasts as long as electric continues to win political backing, which looking around the world isn't a given!

So whose on your drop list?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263191

Postby redsturgeon » November 9th, 2019, 11:37 am

While the USA has idiots like these who knows what will happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmO4NwuIfrs

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263196

Postby andyalan10 » November 9th, 2019, 11:58 am

BobbyD wrote:
That leaves Africa and Asia. Given the Chinese BEV push I'd say Asia is spoken for, and Africa is perfect for BEV, but that doesn't actually mean it's going to get there any time soon.



Given China electric car sales currently down 34% year on year on subsidy cuts, and the non-existent progress in India and Indonesia, the second and third most populous countries in Asia I don't think Asia is "spoken for".

BobbyD wrote:
I have no doubt blood gonna spill, but equally you might find some manufacturers simply changing their profile or sub-contracting a part of their range, eg. Ford buying 600,000 units of MEB for European small cars, whilst electrifying other parts of the business themselves, whilst others desperately scramble around for a partner to give them more scale and share the costs.

It's certainly going to be interesting, although the only manufacturer whose future I have all that much certainty about is VW, and that only lasts as long as electric continues to win political backing, which looking around the world isn't a given!

So whose on your drop list?


I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.

I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?

andyalan10

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263199

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 12:14 pm



I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.

I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?

andyalan10


Volvo last time I looked at their strategy was going for BEV only & dropping all ice.

As things now are there seems no practical alternative to lithium ion batteries. Something may come but to get a better experience in terms of performance & reliability of power trains lithium ion is currently the only option. Ditto for emission while driving.

The argument re simpler but cost a lot to develop is that the overheads of going from ice to BEV are substantial, but once done the cost per unit falls. It is imho a very similar situation to the transition from piston air craft motors to jet engines, huge overheads to get jets practical, then much better performance & much lower on going making costs.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263200

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 12:16 pm

Also forgot to to mention that some of the lack of Chinese BEV sales is the effect of US tariffs, as these come off I expect BEV sales to rocket.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263208

Postby andyalan10 » November 9th, 2019, 1:04 pm

This article says:-

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volvo/108 ... ctric-cars

Volvo "expects" BEVs to be 50% of output by 2025. And "“The higher the percentage of all electric [sales] the faster we will shut down the others. If only 5 per cent are buying cars with combustion it probably doesn’t pay to keep that - so let’s see what the customers prefer long term.”

So on their current prediction it'll be a long time after 2025 that they will stop producing new ICE cars. But predicting things is difficult, hence my welcoming the fact that different manufacturers are taking different approaches.

andyalan10


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