Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34,Anonymous, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263232

Postby dspp » November 9th, 2019, 2:44 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp




So whose on your drop list?


I think JLR, FCA, BMW, PSA, and a whole slew of the smaller regional players are looking in danger. Maybe also GM, Mazda, Kia, Mitsubishi. Perhaps also BMW and Mercedes.

I think quite a lot of the truck & bus manufacturers will likewise be at risk.

I just checked the TSLA shareprice. You can see I am a LTBH type of person because I haven't looked for quite a while. Wow, up at $337 after trading in the $220-$240 range for quite a while. My calcs were the $220-$240 was fair value on PEG basis at 33% yoy growth, and excluding all the non-auto valuation items. Hmmmmmmm.........

regards, dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263271

Postby BobbyD » November 9th, 2019, 5:46 pm

andyalan10 wrote:Given China electric car sales currently down 34% year on year on subsidy cuts, and the non-existent progress in India and Indonesia, the second and third most populous countries in Asia I don't think Asia is "spoken for".


China is rationalising their BEV production, given their credits system you are still either going to have to sell BEV's or buy credits from somebody who does if you want to sell petrol cars in China. India might be moving more slowly, but then India doesn't have the level of government control that China does or the ability to direct the world's largest automotive industry to fulfill its goals, and China has a far more conspicuous local air pollution problem to address. With the greatest of respect to Indonesia Asia is the one place on the planet where a country of quarter a billion people isn't going to tip the scales.

andyalan10 wrote:I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.


The other side of that coin is that VW can afford to produce petrol cars which are designed to the limits and advantages of petrol cars, and electric cars which are designed to the limits and advantages of electric cars, whilst PSA and Volvo are forced to take in to account the restrictions of an electric architecture when designing a petrol car and the restrictions of a petrol architecture whilst designing an electric car.

With VW you buy a Golf if you want petrol and an id.3 if you want electric, both markets are serviced by dedicated platforms, something which is possible because of the sheer number of cars that VW sells. VW are providing the same choice of powertrains as Volvo and PSA, but packaged in a box which is designed specifically for that powertrain. The customer doesn't lose any choice, but gains a more refined product in every case.

You can make perfectly decent cars using a split architecture, for example the e-golf, or by building electric on fossil fuel platforms, for example the e-tron, but can you really push the design limits or achieve the same manufacturing efficiency as a dedicated factory of either persuasion pumping out dedicated vehicles which identify unambiguously as electric or fossil fuel?

The difference is that VW can address the switchover at a factory level taking full advantage of both electric and fossil, whilst manufacturers with lower outputs have to address it at a line, or even a car level. The i-pace for example is manufactured on the same line as the e-pace by Magna Steyr in Austria. I think this is how you manage the electric transition if you can't simply turn off a factory here and one over there for conversion as and when it becomes necessary, or build a new plant here knowing that in 24 months you'll be happily shipping 300,000 units a year from it to eager customers. I don't think it's how you go about it if you have a choice, I think it is what you do if you don't have the scale to switch an entire factory or an entire market segment.

andyalan10 wrote:I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?


I've seen the argument that BEV's are simpler disputed, based on the complexity of the battery pack which is often treated as a a single component but contains many parts and much fine work connecting them. Tesla packs to take an extreme example contain literally thousands of cells. I'm quite happy with the idea that even if BEV's are simpler than fossil fuel vehicles the difference isn't as big as those whose mental schematic of a BEV consists of an AA battery wired to a lego motor, controlled by a single spring loaded pedal believe.

But even if it were simple to construct a BEV, you can only do that once you've designed the platform, developed the supply chains, and managed to corner a shipment of very in demand batteries, all of which are easier the bigger you are, and easier to recoup the more units you sell.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263283

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 7:03 pm

Volvo Geely are attempting to split off a new unit focused on combustion power trains as a new business.

Volvo intend to drop Diesel completely.

No clear time scale given but I doubt it will be long given the mood music coming from Gothenburg:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volv ... SKBN1WM0LY

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263284

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 7:05 pm

Also meant to say that at current rates of production, Tesla will out sell Volvo in number of vehicles sold.

Regards

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 883 times
Been thanked: 1012 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263292

Postby Howard » November 9th, 2019, 7:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Also meant to say that at current rates of production, Tesla will out sell Volvo in number of vehicles sold.

Regards


Really?

I think you are being a little optimistic. Are you on the same stuff as Elon? ;)

Volvo sold over 640,000 cars in 2018 and they have sold more so far in 2019.

We'll wait to see how many cars Tesla sells in 2019. If they meet their much reduced forecast, it will be around 360,000, but that isn't guaranteed as their sales in the USA were down a bit in Q3 and after their low European sales figures for October they really need a good Nov and Dec.

Ody, when is their Chinese plant going to start producing cars for sale? That may make a modest difference to their 2019 sales?

regards

Howard

See: Volvo Cars reported record first half year sales in 2019 of 340,826 cars, up 7.3 per cent compared with the same period last year. The company sold 317,639 cars in the first six months of 2018.

https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/ ... es-in-2019

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263314

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 11:52 pm

Tesla is currently producing about 97,000 cars per 1/4, so about 388,000 per year:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/10/te ... t-quarter/

The Chinese factory is said to be able to do more, but of course we don't know, yet, but if it was at the same rate as e US, it would be around 776,000 per year.

Estimates are they will be able to produce 1 million cars per year, but again we don't know till China starts making.

Cumulative Tesla car production is over 800,000:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

Tesla cumulative production will hit over a million just on US factory by 1st quarter of 2020, or close to end of 2019 if China starts up soon.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263317

Postby BobbyD » November 10th, 2019, 3:43 am

VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263319

Postby Itsallaguess » November 10th, 2019, 5:53 am

BobbyD wrote:
VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545


An unequivocal conclusion then, regarding the current electric vs hydrogen options and their comparable efficiency losses -

“No sustainable economy can afford to use twice as much renewable energy [due to efficiency losses] to drive fuel cell cars instead of battery-powered vehicles,”

An interesting article - thanks.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10020 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263321

Postby Itsallaguess » November 10th, 2019, 6:02 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The article covers the comparison of overall efficiency rates in this picture -

https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com/system/production/media/31092/images_file_en/ef572872996eed86429e4bee494924b1b86dbd56/DB2019NR01122_overfull.jpg?1573138998

Hopefully It's clear from the above that there are physical efficiency losses beyond the initial generation of the energy.

Link to the article itself - https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/stories/hydrogen-or-battery-5545

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263325

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2019, 8:26 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The fuel is free, but not the tech to convert this fuel into electric suitable for human use.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263329

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2019, 9:06 am

BobbyD wrote:VW makes the case for electric over hydrogen: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... ttery-5545


This quote inside gives the current relative advantage of Tesla which is aiming for 1 million cars per year next year compared to VW:

In just a few years, Volkswagen intends to sell more than one million electric vehicles a year.


It has been obvious, since all of this move to cleaner transport began, to anyone with a physics degree that BEV are much more efficient than all current competing tech and as such all the fuel cell and hydrogen programs etc for passenger cars are there to get political contributions to running a research group that will not produce a practical passenger car.

For now and amazingly enough I completely agree with VW as to the way forward being BEV. Any new tech touted has to be better in terms of performance and cost. I currently do not see any competition for road car BEV. I am also far from clear that the touted uses for alternatives in stationary, heavy vehicles or long distance vehicles have any viability. The only areas that currently still looks like they will need hydro-carbon/heat engines fueling is long distance air transport, say > 1000 miles and space rockets.

I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels. There is a case that they will continue to run on the crude refining remnants as now with associated heavy pollution, but there are also suggestions that they will need to be cleaner going forwards. In some cases such as the China to Europe rail connection they can be reduced in volume by this competition. Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263340

Postby dspp » November 10th, 2019, 10:38 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels. There is a case that they will continue to run on the crude refining remnants as now with associated heavy pollution, but there are also suggestions that they will need to be cleaner going forwards. In some cases such as the China to Europe rail connection they can be reduced in volume by this competition. Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.

Regards,


o2000,
I have studied this aspect a bit over the years, and done some sums. If you strip out all the fossil fuel movements by ship (oil, gas, coal) that reduces oceanic shipping considerably. Then take out all the Asia <> Europe freight as that can go rail (the track capacity is already in place) and the rail can run on renewables. This leaves not as much as you might think, and if you watch some of the long term positioning the major shipping companies are doing, you can see that they are doing the parallel analysis. It would not take that many major rail investments to delete a lot of the rest (Bering Straits, Darien Gap). By the way two thirds of shipping companies run at a loss ....
Regards,
dspp

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263344

Postby BobbyD » November 10th, 2019, 1:42 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Heck. Silly me. I always thought that solar and wind power were free?


The article covers the comparison of overall efficiency rates in this picture -

https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com/system/production/media/31092/images_file_en/ef572872996eed86429e4bee494924b1b86dbd56/DB2019NR01122_overfull.jpg?1573138998

Hopefully It's clear from the above that there are physical efficiency losses beyond the initial generation of the energy.

Link to the article itself - https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/stories/hydrogen-or-battery-5545

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


The upshot of which is:

What is clear is that hydrogen-powered e-cars will increasingly become more expensive to drive than battery-powered vehicles, not only in terms of purchase, but above also in terms of operation. The double primary energy requirement of hydrogen-powered vehicles compared to battery-powered vehicles will be reflected in consumer prices. Drivers are already paying around nine to twelve euros per 100 kilometers for hydrogen-powered cars, but only two to seven euros per 100 kilometers (depending on the electricity prices in the individual countries) for battery-powered e-cars, depending on varying individual mobility habits.


The dinner may be free but you need a more expensive plate to eat it off.

odysseus2000 wrote:This quote inside gives the current relative advantage of Tesla which is aiming for 1 million cars per year next year compared to VW:

In just a few years, Volkswagen intends to sell more than one million electric vehicles a year.


Yeah, but look at the comparative growth rates!

VW sold under 100,000 BEV's last year.

Image

- https://uploads.volkswagen-newsroom.com ... 1573029920

Zwickau is already building id.3's, Anting is built and expected to come on line at the same time as Foshan, throw in the Taycan line in Zuffenhausen and that's already pushing a million right there, without touching America or half their European sites. And they aren't short of factories to convert for phase 2!

They've also mastered the art of the infographic...

odysseus2000 wrote:For now and amazingly enough I completely agree with VW as to the way forward being BEV. Any new tech touted has to be better in terms of performance and cost.


There's nothing surprising about it, you've agreed with VW for a long time! They aren't playing around. They've made a very substantial bet on electric, and if it comes off it is going to leave them in an incredible position.

odysseus2000 wrote:I am not clear what will happen with large ocean going vessels.


Some years ago I saw a proposal for autonomous clippers to sail major 'safe' routes...

odysseus2000 wrote:Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods ...Additionally the developments of very sophisticated 3d printing may curtail a lot of the need to send finished goods.


Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage. It's something I've taken my eye off after a deep dive some years ago, and it definmitely has major uses, but nothing at the moment which is going to make a significant dent in delivery miles. Having said that the sequel to William Gibson's the peripheral is due out soon, so I wouldn't rule out a spike in media coverage.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263380

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2019, 7:36 pm

BobbyD
Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage.


Inventory is the enemy of most business for the storage and the depreciation.

If the world can move to on demand manufacturing there will be substantial cost reduction in storage and in depreciation of stock.

The effect of depreciation is very clearly seen with old car parts. I can often buy bits for my 2002 Volvo for perhaps 1/5th to 1/10th the price for a much newer model as the sellers are desperate to unload stock and free up warehouse space and fear that in a few years the stock will be scrap value only, so they offer it at much lower prices to move it while it has some value.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263385

Postby odysseus2000 » November 10th, 2019, 7:46 pm


BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263416

Postby BobbyD » November 11th, 2019, 2:08 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Additive manufacturing can provide many benefits, but at the end point you are simply replacing product delivery with material delivery. It seems unlikely to take the place of genuinely mass manufacturing, atleast within any useful timescale, and it plays strongest with the bespoke and the unusual. In it's current state one of it's major benefits reflects less on delivery miles and more on cubic feet and tons of inventory storage.


Inventory is the enemy of most business for the storage and the depreciation.


...but there's no benefit in laying out for expensive machinery, and 5 tons of material for it to slowly turn in to screws if you get through 5 tons of screws a week made and delivered for a fraction of a percent of the cost. In that regard it's better suited to the things you have to have lying around on the off chance. There's no benefit to replacing specialist manufacturing of easy to source items for which you have a predictable demand.

There are of course also things where AM is actually a better production process, but that's a different kettle of fish.

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263442

Postby odysseus2000 » November 11th, 2019, 9:12 am

Off grid in New York for 33 days, but with all modern conveniences still working:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/10/3- ... ssion=true

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263449

Postby odysseus2000 » November 11th, 2019, 10:06 am

BobbyD
...but there's no benefit in laying out for expensive machinery, and 5 tons of material for it to slowly turn in to screws if you get through 5 tons of screws a week made and delivered for a fraction of a percent of the cost. In that regard it's better suited to the things you have to have lying around on the off chance. There's no benefit to replacing specialist manufacturing of easy to source items for which you have a predictable demand.


Yes, but you don't have a car & have the experience of all the multitudes of bits that have to be held in a warehouse in case of need. Sure for commodity items like fixings it makes no sense to have additive manufacturing, but for many car parts the savings over not having to stock & characterise in an easy retrievable manner literally 100 of thousands of parts is substantial. The tech hasn't quite reached the replicator level it needs to, but even now one can print many parts that traditionally needed casting, machining, finishing etc meaning no stock sitting about, no depreciation as the feed stocks have multiple uses etc.

This tech is fabulous for the coming Lunar constructions, put a refining facility there, then 3d print what is needed from the purified elements. One facility making numerous widgets that previously would have had to come from the Earth. Ditto for the Martian facilities.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263486

Postby BobbyD » November 11th, 2019, 1:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but you don't have a car & have the experience of all the multitudes of bits that have to be held in a warehouse in case of need. Sure for commodity items like fixings it makes no sense to have additive manufacturing, but for many car parts the savings over not having to stock & characterise in an easy retrievable manner literally 100 of thousands of parts is substantial.


...so we agree that the world isn't going to move to manufacture on demand, but offers potential savings in the once in every little while category.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#263500

Postby BobbyD » November 11th, 2019, 1:48 pm

A data point of questionable value:

Deliveries of the top-selling Tesla Model 3 electric sedans tailed off sharply in the month of New Zealand after frenetic activity in the previous two months.

New data released by the NZ Ministry of Transport shows that just 79 Model 3s were delivered in New Zealand in October, down from the 419 that were delivered from late August, when the first Model 3s arrived, through to the end of September.

The figures for New Zealand are likely a pointer to Australia, whose department of Transport does not track sales in detail but where anecdotal evidence points to a similar drop-off in deliveries. Which will be frustrating for those told they have to wait until the New Year to pick up their orders.


- https://thedriven.io/2019/11/10/tesla-m ... n-october/


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests