Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

[Tesla] appear to have about half the battery manufacturing capacity in the world sewn up, with a cost/kWh that is lower than everybody else and an kWh/mile that is as good as anybody else, and both improving at least as fast as anybody else.

Tesla Model 3 is responsible for 16% of the world’s new electric car battery capacity

- https://electrek.co/2019/07/16/tesla-mo ... -capacity/

Taking Q2 figures M3 production accounts for about 83% of Tesla's automotive output.

- https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news ... deliveries

[dspp]

[Tesla] appear to have about half the battery manufacturing capacity in the world sewn up, with a cost/kWh that is lower than everybody else and an kWh/mile that is as good as anybody else, and both improving at least as fast as anybody else.

Tesla Model 3 is responsible for 16% of the world’s new electric car battery capacity

- https://electrek.co/2019/07/16/tesla-mo ... -capacity/

Taking Q2 figures M3 production accounts for about 83% of Tesla's automotive output.

- https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news ... deliveries

Thanks BD. I'm not going to pay $$ for the report https://www.adamasintel.com/june-2019-e ... -capacity/ but I see the quotable bit says,

"In June 2019, battery electric vehicles (“BEVs”) were responsible for 91% of all passenger EV battery capacity deployed globally (in GWh) versus just 84% in June 2018, according to Adamas Intelligence’s latest ‘EV Battery Capacity Monthly’ report.

There are two causes for the increase in capacity deployed by BEVs relative to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (“PHEVs”) and hybrid electric vehicle (“HEVs”).

Firstly, in June 2019 sales of BEVs made up a greater share of overall EV sales than they did the same month the year prior as the sales growth of BEVs over the same period outpaced that of PHEVs and HEVs.

Secondly, in June 2019 sales of long-range BEVs with high capacity batteries (such as the Tesla Model 3, BYD e5, Dongfeng Fengshen E70 and Geely Emgrand) made up a greater share of total BEV sales than they did in June 2018."

So that's another confirmation that hybrids are dead. It also suggests that long range EVs are winning out over short range EVs. Personally I expect a market bifurcation, but we will see.

The actual electrek quote is rather ambiguous, using the term 'new'. That might mean additional, or maybe it is just sloppy writing. I'm not sure. Meanwhile I note that a commentor is doing the same maths that was running through my head:

"Peter Muller : If we add to the 16 % of M3 another 16 % for Model Y, and another 16 % for GF3 and another 16 % more for Semi, together 64% of the world capacity for high drain car batteries, there is no room for other manufacturers to produce EVs with a usable battery. All the "comittment" to electric is vapour. VW, BMW, Merc, Jaguar ect. will for a longer time not "buy their batteries from any suppliers". If VW would attempt to build 1 million EVs, they would need to make the "World" to make double as much batteries next year."

Similarly carsoninght does the same maths that have been seen before,

""Panasonic invested in an annual production capacity of 35 GWh at the factory, but we learn earlier this year that it was limited to about 23 GWh due to production constraints that the company is trying to fix."

I think you are mistaken about the "fix" part, Fred. I think Panasonic will be upgrading their machinery, as I have been reporting since last year. The first 10 lines of machines were each capable of 300k cells per day, but starting last September they installed an aditional 3 lines each capable of 400k cells per day. If you add that up it's 4.2 million cells per day, or a theoritical capacity of 27.5 GWh per year. Of course they never hit that level. Machines break down, and Panasonic, along with every other business, has had difficulty hiring and retaining employees in Reno's exceedingly tight labor market.

I believe, though so far it is speculation on my part, that Panasonic will approach 35 GWh per year by upgrading those first 10 lines of machines. The math checks out: all 13 lines at 400k per day equals 5.2 million cells per day, or ~35 GWh per year."

Which suggests about 10GWh/yr will be needed from LG for the initial production rate of the 3 in Shanghai. That lithium surplus is going to disappear real quick.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

"Peter Muller : If we add to the 16 % of M3 another 16 % for Model Y, and another 16 % for GF3 and another 16 % more for Semi, together 64% of the world capacity for high drain car batteries, there is no room for other manufacturers to produce EVs with a usable battery. All the "comittment" to electric is vapour. VW, BMW, Merc, Jaguar ect. will for a longer time not "buy their batteries from any suppliers". If VW would attempt to build 1 million EVs, they would need to make the "World" to make double as much batteries next year."

You have to love the dismissal of VW BEV's as vaporware based on the amount of battery power the Tesla Semi is going to be using... Tesla folk are so much fun.

[dspp]

"Peter Muller : If we add to the 16 % of M3 another 16 % for Model Y, and another 16 % for GF3 and another 16 % more for Semi, together 64% of the world capacity for high drain car batteries, there is no room for other manufacturers to produce EVs with a usable battery. All the "comittment" to electric is vapour. VW, BMW, Merc, Jaguar ect. will for a longer time not "buy their batteries from any suppliers". If VW would attempt to build 1 million EVs, they would need to make the "World" to make double as much batteries next year."

You have to love the dismissal of VW BEV's as vaporware based on the amount of battery power the Tesla Semi is going to be using... Tesla folk are so much fun.

Indeed !

More seriously, there are going to be a lot of battery factories built. And some pretty wild swings in demand/supply mismatch and hence pricing. Should be exciting.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

"Peter Muller : If we add to the 16 % of M3 another 16 % for Model Y, and another 16 % for GF3 and another 16 % more for Semi, together 64% of the world capacity for high drain car batteries, there is no room for other manufacturers to produce EVs with a usable battery. All the "comittment" to electric is vapour. VW, BMW, Merc, Jaguar ect. will for a longer time not "buy their batteries from any suppliers". If VW would attempt to build 1 million EVs, they would need to make the "World" to make double as much batteries next year."

You have to love the dismissal of VW BEV's as vaporware based on the amount of battery power the Tesla Semi is going to be using... Tesla folk are so much fun.

Indeed !

More seriously, there are going to be a lot of battery factories built. And some pretty wild swings in demand/supply mismatch and hence pricing. Should be exciting.

regards, dspp

I believe the big question regarding battery fab, is will this happen now with the wet chemistry that not many companies have a mastery of, or will many more wait till something better is available with there being suggestions that better is here now and will feature in the Y. This was the kind of hints that Munroe was making in the video I posted a few posts back and in addition to this there is the role of super capacitors both in providing acceleration and in soaking up braking generated power. Munroe was, he said, more interested in what would be in the Y than in any other coming BEV.
He also noted that 3 electronics was not like what he saw in Apple products, but like what he saw in military aircraft and weapons, noting that is well ahead of competitors in terms of very large scale integration, i.e. replacing entire circuit boards with dedicated chips.

The whole business of batteries is very much about propaganda and marketing at the moment. There are claims of investments at very high dollar levels but little identifiable plant that would exist if these investment levels were a reality rather than marketing vapour.

Regards,

[Howard]

You have to love the dismissal of VW BEV's as vaporware based on the amount of battery power the Tesla Semi is going to be using... Tesla folk are so much fun.

Indeed !

More seriously, there are going to be a lot of battery factories built. And some pretty wild swings in demand/supply mismatch and hence pricing. Should be exciting.

regards, dspp

I believe the big question regarding battery fab, is will this happen now with the wet chemistry that not many companies have a mastery of, or will many more wait till something better is available with there being suggestions that better is here now and will feature in the Y. This was the kind of hints that Munroe was making in the video I posted a few posts back and in addition to this there is the role of super capacitors both in providing acceleration and in soaking up braking generated power. Munroe was, he said, more interested in what would be in the Y than in any other coming BEV.
He also noted that 3 electronics was not like what he saw in Apple products, but like what he saw in military aircraft and weapons, noting that is well ahead of competitors in terms of very large scale integration, i.e. replacing entire circuit boards with dedicated chips.

The whole business of batteries is very much about propaganda and marketing at the moment. There are claims of investments at very high dollar levels but little identifiable plant that would exist if these investment levels were a reality rather than marketing vapour.

Regards,

Dear Ody

I don't think you understand marketing or you wouldn't make your last statement.

A reasonable definition of marketing is provided by Investopedia:

"Marketing refers to activities undertaken by a company to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Marketing includes advertising, selling, and delivering products to consumers or other businesses."

All this battery talk could be described as Quasi-engineering puffery! None of it matters if it doesn't result in satisfying customers' needs.

And no company has yet provided a BEV which meets the needs of the average motorist. (Having said that I accept that Tesla has sold a reasonable number of cars to a Californian and Norwegian fan base, but it is not certain that they will deliver large volumes to a more general market.) They will need to improve their marketing skills to achieve this.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Dear Ody

I don't think you understand marketing or you wouldn't make your last statement.

A reasonable definition of marketing is provided by Investopedia:

"Marketing refers to activities undertaken by a company to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Marketing includes advertising, selling, and delivering products to consumers or other businesses."

All this battery talk could be described as Quasi-engineering puffery! None of it matters if it doesn't result in satisfying customers' needs.

And no company has yet provided a BEV which meets the needs of the average motorist. (Having said that I accept that Tesla has sold a reasonable number of cars to a Californian and Norwegian fan base, but it is not certain that they will deliver large volumes to a more general market.) They will need to improve their marketing skills to achieve this.

regards

Howard

Marketing is far more general than your quote about delivering products to customers.

It is about presenting yourself as the organisation to do business with.

In terms of legacy auto it is about presenting information to perspective punters and politicians that you have everything anyone could need, that you are spending vast amounts of money to to make things even better and that your stuff is the cleanest on the planet.

Reality is that legacy auto hates BEV, it hates the thought of spending money on building battery factories and so instead of spending the money it concocts marketing that implies they are spending a fortune.

Regards,

[vrdiver]

The whole business of batteries is very much about propaganda and marketing at the moment. There are claims of investments at very high dollar levels but little identifiable plant that would exist if these investment levels were a reality rather than marketing vapour.

Dear Ody

I don't think you understand marketing or you wouldn't make your last statement.

I beg to differ.

At least, in the software world, the term "vapourware" has been around for decades, describing the ideas and future capabilities that may or may not become reality. Whilst no contract would mention any such item or concept or idea, many prospects would buy software having shared the "dream" of what they were buying into and the roadmap of future capability.

If, as Ody is suggesting, there is a lot of "noise" about future potential then this, to me at least, has identifiable hallmarks shared with the software industry, if not many others.

VRD

[odysseus2000]

Howard
All this battery talk could be described as Quasi-engineering puffery! None of it matters if it doesn't result in satisfying customers' needs.

In terms of engineering, nothing has changed since Brunel.

Engineering is doing for 6p what any fool can do for a schilling.

That is why the tech that goes into electric is important, it is why all the offering from legacy auto are lame.

Most people have no clue what so ever about science and engineering.

What they can understand is performance and those who test drive a Tesla and then most of the competing offering from legacy get the engineering difference at a primitive emotional level.

Sure the reviews go on about how good some legacy offering is, but they are all being paid to say this. It is very much more difficult to argue with the emotions of the folk behind the wheel and all of that comes from the build and the ingredients.

I understand that all of this will make no sense to you, as like most people you are a product of the marketing industry and have what it has wanted to put in your brain all ready to go and argue and to add to the mix you have had good experience with legacy.

What I believe you don't know or understand is the future and how things have changed.

Of course I might be wrong, if I am the Tesla stuff won't sell and the business will collapse.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Dear Ody

I don't think you understand marketing or you wouldn't make your last statement.

I beg to differ.

At least, in the software world, the term "vapourware" has been around for decades, describing the ideas and future capabilities that may or may not become reality. Whilst no contract would mention any such item or concept or idea, many prospects would buy software having shared the "dream" of what they were buying into and the roadmap of future capability.

If, as Ody is suggesting, there is a lot of "noise" about future potential then this, to me at least, has identifiable hallmarks shared with the software industry, if not many others.

VRD

The irony is that the true vaporware in the sector is Tesla's FSD.

Musk targeting coast-to-coast test drive of fully self-driving Tesla by late 2017

- https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/19/musk- ... late-2017/

Tesla vehicles are now ‘appreciating assets’ due to self-driving capability, says Elon Musk

- https://electrek.co/2019/04/12/tesla-ve ... elon-musk/

Elon Musk: Tesla cars should be worth $100k to $200k with Full Self-Driving package

- https://electrek.co/2019/07/16/tesla-ca ... elon-musk/

Non Teslas in pre-production are derided as vaporware by the true believers whilst the model Y and Tesla Semi are real, Tesla's can magically stretch it's battery supply to cover future expansion in sector and geography but inked legal contracts signed by anybody else are FUD...

Don't look down boys, you've run out of cliff.

[dspp]

A reasonable definition of marketing is provided by Investopedia:

"Marketing refers to activities undertaken by a company to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Marketing includes advertising, selling, and delivering products to consumers or other businesses."

IMHO that definition is wrong. That is the definition of SELLING. Done correctly MARKETING is about deciding what is the correct set of product attributes to create, and then how to position them within a market so that the market wants to buy them without any need for active selling. In my opinion Tesla knows all about marketing, but it does them a different way than trad auto, with the latter being more reliant on selling to overcome poor marketing.

By the way I listened to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93VJ1PEp6o the Munro interview. The points I picked up were that Chinese rate of progress is not to be underestimated, and that US auto is lagging except for Tesla, and that Europeans are in the middle. Otherwise it was a wasted hour.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

A reasonable definition of marketing is provided by Investopedia:

"Marketing refers to activities undertaken by a company to promote the buying or selling of a product or service. Marketing includes advertising, selling, and delivering products to consumers or other businesses."

IMHO that definition is wrong. That is the definition of SELLING. Done correctly MARKETING is about deciding what is the correct set of product attributes to create, and then how to position them within a market so that the market wants to buy them without any need for active selling. In my opinion Tesla knows all about marketing, but it does them a different way than trad auto, with the latter being more reliant on selling to overcome poor marketing.

By the way I listened to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i93VJ1PEp6o the Munro interview. The points I picked up were that Chinese rate of progress is not to be underestimated, and that US auto is lagging except for Tesla, and that Europeans are in the middle. Otherwise it was a wasted hour.

regards, dspp

To be honest, I always thought the old fashioned principle of Marketing was primarily identifying customers' needs and satisfying them at a price they would be happy with. Can I differ with you in saying that I don't think Tesla have a clue about satisfying the majority of motorists' needs? They have majored on a few irrelevant factors like ridiculous acceleration and autonomous mode and are in danger of being beaten by manufacturers who might be able to produce a car which meets the needs of a bigger market sector.

If they don't address Marketing and Service issues properly they risk becoming the new DeLorean. They really do have to increase their volume sales worldwide, especially in markets where they don't benefit from huge subsidies (unlike Norway where Tesla benefit from the huge support from a society who feel guilty because or their huge wealth from oil). There is a danger that they may be seen to be irrelevant to the average motorist.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

These companies are real disruptors of the car dealership process, I can buy or lease pretty much any new car I like without ever setting foot in a dealership but I know the dealer is there to sort out any problems if they arise after the sale.

The dealer as we know it is a dead thing walking. That's all you are describing.

How fortunate for Tesla that they have not set out to create a dealer network. Instead they own & control the sales experience from top to bottom, and separate that out from the service experience.

- dspp

It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end,

For the first time since the Great Recession, the average U.S. new car dealer operated at a financial loss in 2018. After adding the income from all dealership departments (i.e., new cars, used cars, service and parts), the typical dealer lost $13,000 last year — compared to a $430,000 profit in 2013. To survive, dealers are now dependent on conditional income or “strings-attached” financial incentives from automakers. This shift in dealership profitability is reshaping an industry that is over a century old. Retailing new vehicles is unprofitable for most dealers, with the average car sold for a $735 loss as of the latest data.

etc https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyalic ... o-dealers/

- dspp

[BobbyD]

It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end

It's worth bearing in mind that the American system of dealerships is very 'special'. If they weren't massively protected they'd already have been put out of their customer's misery.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013 ... s-so-awful

[Howard]

These companies are real disruptors of the car dealership process, I can buy or lease pretty much any new car I like without ever setting foot in a dealership but I know the dealer is there to sort out any problems if they arise after the sale.

The dealer as we know it is a dead thing walking. That's all you are describing.

How fortunate for Tesla that they have not set out to create a dealer network. Instead they own & control the sales experience from top to bottom, and separate that out from the service experience.

- dspp

It looks like I am not the only one thinking that the traditional dealer network is coming to an end,

For the first time since the Great Recession, the average U.S. new car dealer operated at a financial loss in 2018. After adding the income from all dealership departments (i.e., new cars, used cars, service and parts), the typical dealer lost $13,000 last year — compared to a $430,000 profit in 2013. To survive, dealers are now dependent on conditional income or “strings-attached” financial incentives from automakers. This shift in dealership profitability is reshaping an industry that is over a century old. Retailing new vehicles is unprofitable for most dealers, with the average car sold for a $735 loss as of the latest data.

etc https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyalic ... o-dealers/

- dspp

Following our discussion about Marketing, viewing this video is a "must".

It follows the experience of a customer and his friend going to pick up his new Model 3 from Tesla Birmingham today.

He is pretty astute, because despite the pressure from the Tesla sales person to complete the sale, he insists on checking the car before paying. His car has faults, so he is offered an alternative which proves to have paint chips and a mark on the seat. Unbelievably it then shows a warning about brake fluid level. Finally after more than three hours he is offered a third car which he accepts despite paint chips and blemishes. He says he'd prefer to get them fixed himself rather than trust Tesla UK to do it. And he says he is fully expecting his new car to show problems with its brake fluid level.

As he says around 19 minutes in, two future customers will get his rejected cars!

So it's a brilliant demonstration by Tesla of how not to sell cars! Yes, dealers as we know them may be doomed, but Tesla's service appears to be worse than any dealer I have bought from. I'd be depressed by the experience. What might go wrong with the car in the future?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epvMIqTw0sI

I'll be interested to read your comments. The most interesting bit is from 17 minutes onwards.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

I like this bit: https://youtu.be/epvMIqTw0sI?t=1065

How does it compare to the Ioniq, any first thoughts?

No, it drives the same...

Perhaps we ought to build 3 and a half hours for the pick up, and after sales paint detailing in to our next price comparison?

[dspp]

Howard,

My life is too short to watch long videos of people whingeing. I'll take your word for it that it was a traumatic experience. You'll have noted that I am looking around for hard data on the Fremont paint shop, but there seems to be very little to hand. You'll also have noted that I observe almost all north american paint jobs to be shoddy, based on my own experienes, but again I have not been able to locate data.

[edit] some interesting UK commentary by Tesla owners on the paint thing. Especially interesting were their comments on other brands. See https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 561/page-3 [edit]

Anyway here is Kelly Blue Book data, so something is going right for Tesla, "Tesla’s Model 3 shifted to the most considered model this quarter (up from #6 in Q1 2019). "
https://www.scribd.com/document/4235212 ... from_embed

regards, dspp

[Itsallaguess]

Space-X successfully tested their ‘Starhopper’ Mars-colonizing spaceship today, and it's quite an impressive lump -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owQy0LKGLDU

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[ReformedCharacter]

Space-X successfully tested their ‘Starhopper’ Mars-colonizing spaceship today, and it's quite an impressive lump -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owQy0LKGLDU

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Yes, impressive. I rather like the way they go about things, apparently the stainless steel body was fabricated by a local company that makes steel tanks, very non-NASA and probably easy to fix up after it got blown over recently

RC

[Howard]

Howard,

My life is too short to watch long videos of people whingeing. I'll take your word for it that it was a traumatic experience. You'll have noted that I am looking around for hard data on the Fremont paint shop, but there seems to be very little to hand. You'll also have noted that I observe almost all north american paint jobs to be shoddy, based on my own experienes, but again I have not been able to locate data.

It's a five minute demonstration of why Tesla are failing to meet customers' needs. They aren't whingers, they are Tesla enthusiasts let down by a flawed delivery operation.

You can shut your eyes to evidence of poor service. But in the end it may be an important factor in Tesla's slowing growth. And this evidence is real, not some forecast.

Evidence that a manufacturer is producing two faulty products for every one sold is fairly telling. Let's hope they improve.

Anyway, sales volumes in European markets will be far more important than our views. The market is always right.

regards

Howard