Musk endeavours

[Howard]

Thank you for the extra calculations above.

So to summarise, I think this means that for an owner/lessee who drives into Central London frequently, a Tesla is very competitive over three years. For a motorist who does a lot of driving on motorways, the BMW still has a cost advantage. And probably a reliability advantage too.

Obviously if one has solar panels the cost of running a Tesla is reduced. I'm not sure how much it costs to install a suitable charger for topping up overnight, this should be added into the capital cost. For a London commuter doing 10k a year, with a garage or drive and a charger, there is an advantage that they may very seldom have to charge anywhere else. And if they are lucky enough to be able to charge at their place of work too, there is even more advantage to a Tesla.

As always, it will be interesting to see what consumers actually choose. At the moment, I think the BMW executive may be right, Tesla hasn't demonstrated the ability to sell large volumes of BEVs, except in California and in the skewed market of Norway.

Our calculations suggest, as has been said before, that there must be a large market for a £25k BEV with a reasonable range. This price would suggest a monthly cost of leasing of around £300 which would be very competitive.

And in the meantime, will Tesla hit the predicted 90-100k deliveries for Q2 or will it disappoint? And will it make a profit or need more cash?

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

For a London commuter doing 10k a year, with a garage or drive and a charger, there is an advantage that they may very seldom have to charge anywhere else.

To be fair we ought to add in the cost of a garage within 8.3 miles of central London and that's assuming that they don't drive anywhere other to work and back! I'm not sure a 10k example is going to play out in Tesla's favour under those conditions.

As always, it will be interesting to see what consumers actually choose. At the moment, I think the BMW executive may be right, Tesla hasn't demonstrated the ability to sell large volumes of BEVs, except in California and in the skewed market of Norway.

Our calculations suggest, as has been said before, that there must be a large market for a £25k BEV with a reasonable range. This price would suggest a monthly cost of leasing of around £300 which would be very competitive.

In this regard Tesla and BMW are sitting in the same boat. They have differing degrees of lack of scale, but they both lack it, and they are both £10k a car over that entry point. BMW has an obvious short to medium out, which would be to buy credits and pay fines rather than comply. Tesla could sell them to BMW...

Cost isn't the whole story though the £35k i3 is being outsold by the £70k e-tron, and that's a window sticker well within BMW's range. It's close enoughish to the model 3 which is shifting in far greater numbers. Did BMW pick the wrong first BEV? Are their customers more conservative than fans of the brand with four rings? Is the i3 too close to the model 3 in price and so putting itself up against the BEV cult in a battle it can't hope to win? Are they not getting behind the car in the same way as Audi? Whatever the cause there is plenty of money in the market that they have failed to pick up, so it isn't a cash shortage.

[Itsallaguess]

Whilst the huge differences in warranty and repair status are as apparent as they clearly are between the established ICE players and Tesla, then price comparisons can only get you so far, surely....

The modern consumer rightly expects a level of after-sales service that is clearly lacking in the current Tesla offering, and until they fix that, and embed the fact that there is no difference over a long and sustained period, then I think they will struggle beyond their established fan-base.....

This isn't an impossible task, as has been shown by the long-term delivery of such service by the well-known brands, but it seems that Tesla are quite a long way from being able to make such similar claims, and I don't think we should underestimate the time and commitment needed to square this particular circle....

Whilst we can argue all day about the technical delivery of this new driver-to-road technology by Tesla, history has shown that 'best-in-market' does not automatically mean success-in-market, and it's clear that this is often forgotten when considering this thread, and those participants that seem determined to forget this......

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[odysseus2000]

To update the figures for home charging.

These guys say a home charger will cost £1000 with some current offers via government schemes to halve that:

https://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/sc ... nt-funding

£1000 seems a lot when one can have a 48 amp 12 kW shower for a lot less, but that is what they say.

Re what the consumer wants, it is unknowable & a moving target as all makers will adjust.

If a consumer wants safe car he or she will have one set of parameters, ditto for the cheapest another set, for the best performance another, for the longest range another etc.

Then there are the aspects of depreciation which is another big area.

Service & repair are another & will depend on the warranty package taken out with a buy or lease. If e.g. someone needs a car for their job they will likely pay more for guaranteed availability than someone who has a 3rd car used only a few days per week etc.

It is likely than some folk will only have what they consider the best, for others only what is the cheapest. In my nano scale business experience for some customers it is purely if they like what they see. for others they always want what I haven't got.

However, the overall take that I am getting is that electric cars are popular & that means trouble for ice & hybrid makers.

Another big take is that there are not enough batteries. Many seem convinced that the current batteries are doomed & consequently they won't spend to create manufacturing facilities for them. It seems likely that the market may force a change & in the by and by we could then see a glut of batteries just as some new tech replaces them. There are many opportunities and risks here and it still seems to me that legacy is in a very difficult position with senior management often deluded.

Regards,

[Archtronics]

New EU rules put forward electric cars have to sound like ICE cars.

“All new types of four-wheel electric vehicle must be fitted with the device, which sounds like a traditional engine.
A car's acoustic vehicle alert system (Avas) must sound when reversing or travelling below 12mph (19km/h).”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48815968

[odysseus2000]

New EU rules put forward electric cars have to sound like ICE cars.

“All new types of four-wheel electric vehicle must be fitted with the device, which sounds like a traditional engine.
A car's acoustic vehicle alert system (Avas) must sound when reversing or travelling below 12mph (19km/h).”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48815968

Didn't sound much like an ice to me.

Can imagine these will get modified to play the drivers favouring little tune. The tune played for people with poor vision and for those walking while texting it is not as audible as the current bleeping sound on a reversing wagon. Would have thought something more distinctive would be more practical. One could also imagine that the system could be made so as to turn on only when it detects life forms nearby. Having this kind of thing late night in a residential area could lead to trouble and it being turned off, as seems to be allowed, could then lead to it hurting someone or an animal. Problems of an advanced technology.

Regards,

[Spet0789]

At 10k miles a year, fuel cost is a bit of a sideshow next to the depreciation on a new car.

You can buy a clean 3 year old, 40k miles BMW 520d for about 18k. Over 3 years it’ll cost much less than half of what the new Tesla or BMW will cost over the same period.

Given how reliable cars are now, in my opinion any private motorist buying a new car and planning to repeat after 3 years is just flushing money away. This is true whether done on finance, PCP, HP or by dropping a briefcase full of cash on the dealer’s desk.

[odysseus2000]

At 10k miles a year, fuel cost is a bit of a sideshow next to the depreciation on a new car.

You can buy a clean 3 year old, 40k miles BMW 520d for about 18k. Over 3 years it’ll cost much less than half of what the new Tesla or BMW will cost over the same period.

Given how reliable cars are now, in my opinion any private motorist buying a new car and planning to repeat after 3 years is just flushing money away. This is true whether done on finance, PCP, HP or by dropping a briefcase full of cash on the dealer’s desk.

Yes, I can concur, but nevertheless lots of folk lease and the numbers are rising.

Why?

Because the cheap 3 year old motor can easily land you with a big repair bill and new cars are made such that they are very expensive to work on. The local Audi garage charges £160 per hour labour and then stings you for parts. Where I get my MOT's done the mechanic told me that new injectors are over £1000 each and the manufacturers often specify that all injectors are changed if one fails. That can easily land a motorist with a £5k+ bill if done at a dealer.

Me? I can do most car repairs myself and like to buy cars when they are very heavily depreciated, ideally less than scrap value. But very few other people want to spend time doing dirty jobs under cars often without all the specialists tools and such that dealers have and in the UK climate often in poor weather. Moreover most folk don't have the knowledge or skill to do it and are happy to pay someone else. I have been at Halfords a few times and seen what jobs folk bring in for them to do, what I consider as trivial like changing brake shoes and tyres on push bikes get given to Halfords and there is often a queue for folk having windscreen wipers and batteries changed.

I am one of the few people who do car repairs and who enjoy it, whereas most folk just want something they can drive and don't care too much about the costs. That is how most people in good jobs behave in the prosperous Britain of the 21st century, doing the sorts of things that US consumers have been doing for longer. The less prosperous often have to struggle and often spend a small fortune on keeping their cars going, usually in my observation by continually changing their second hand motor for a better model, if possible with a warranty of some sorts.

Regards,

[Howard]

At 10k miles a year, fuel cost is a bit of a sideshow next to the depreciation on a new car.

You can buy a clean 3 year old, 40k miles BMW 520d for about 18k. Over 3 years it’ll cost much less than half of what the new Tesla or BMW will cost over the same period.

Given how reliable cars are now, in my opinion any private motorist buying a new car and planning to repeat after 3 years is just flushing money away. This is true whether done on finance, PCP, HP or by dropping a briefcase full of cash on the dealer’s desk.

Spet

Can I give you a justification for a new car?

I’ve leased a 5 Series for three years. As a factory order, it is exactly the specification I wanted. Metallic paint and an interior which includes a nice wood trim and seat colour co-ordination, auto light dipping and reversing camera as well as parking aids. The top spec Sat Nav is obviously up to date and the car comes with the latest electronics, large touch screen with several methods of input so much safer than fiddling about with a touch screen whilst driving (eat your heart out Tesla drivers ). I can plan my journeys and send the car destinations in seconds whilst having a coffee in my study rather than inputting while driving.

I like a petrol engine as it is as quiet as an electric car (I’ve driven several BEVs for comparison). And I like the relaxation of no unexpected repair costs and the expectation that in three years of driving I will have to visit a dealer only once for a service.

Total cost for my “perfect” car is under £15,000 for three years relaxed motoring. Only extra costs are for insurance and petrol.

Looking at Autotrader today, there is only one 5 Series petrol engine car available which has done around 40k miles and is three years old. It is £19,000 and two and half hours drive from my home. It’s black with “drug dealer” tinted back windows, wrong colour upholstery, and lacks the upmarket woodgrain trim that I like. It’s got sports suspension and 19 inch wheels with low profile tyres and I prefer the silky smooth BMW suspension which I specified for my car. The car supermarket also charges a £199 administration fee.

Over three years, the second-hand car will surely require four new tyres for around £1,000 (yes I was told that the free replacement tyre fitted at my home for a previous leased BMW would have cost me more than £250 if I'd had to pay myself).

Ideally I’d like the Sat Nav updated and the BMW online facilities renewed for the three years, which will cost north of £500. And let’s allow £1,500 for servicing and three MOTs.

At the end of three years motoring the used BMW will probably be worth £9,000. So the cost of owning including the above costs will be around £13,000. Plus the costs of driving 5 hours to buy it and the hassle of MOTs, tyre changes, services etc. And every time I get in the second-hand car I will be regretting not getting the upmarket spec I could have enjoyed.

So my new-car enjoyment may cost me £2,000 more than a poor second hand substitute!

Oh! And as an investor, because I’m paying less than £400 a month, I would have invested the over 15k cash which I haven’t had to fork out up front (let’s say in Fundsmith, one of my investments) and since I leased the new car last year it’s gone up more than 15%, or £2,250 so my new car may even prove cheaper than buying a second-hand car for cash!

And the enjoyment of picking up a new car at a time convenient to me and seeing it beautifully polished at the front of the pretentious BMW showroom is worth a bit too.

regards

Howard

[Archtronics]

Different strokes for different folks.

I’ve had lease cars in the past and having the newest thing is great, but the cost always bugged me for a second car.
My vans just ticked over to 15 years, bit rusty now but it’s mechanical very simple and does everything I need for work, won’t replace it until it goes bang.

My missus however likes getting a new car every couple of years just to have something “new”.
I doubt she even thinks or cares about the repair costs, or the monthly cost, it’s just like paying a normal bill.

It’s a shame no one is really offering a decent electric van, it’s odd because mine has loads of space underneath for batteries, so you would think it would be a simpler job compared to a car.

[tjh290633]

At 10k miles a year, fuel cost is a bit of a sideshow next to the depreciation on a new car.

You can buy a clean 3 year old, 40k miles BMW 520d for about 18k. Over 3 years it’ll cost much less than half of what the new Tesla or BMW will cost over the same period.

Given how reliable cars are now, in my opinion any private motorist buying a new car and planning to repeat after 3 years is just flushing money away. This is true whether done on finance, PCP, HP or by dropping a briefcase full of cash on the dealer’s desk.

The other point of view is that you can pick up a preregistered car, or a so-called demonstrator, at a considerable discount to list price. Mine had 4 miles on the clock and I got a 25% discount. That's a year's depreciation. Coming up to 6 years old, and the front tyres are still legal after 36,000 miles. The rear tyres look like new.

I'll probably keep it for some years yet, or until I get an offer that I can't refuse. At that stage it may get cascaded to grandchildren.

The price of hybrids and bevs put them out of consideration. I can buy three or four normal cars for the same cost.

TJH

[BobbyD]

This isn't an impossible task, as has been shown by the long-term delivery of such service by the well-known brands, but it seems that Tesla are quite a long way from being able to make such similar claims, and I don't think we should underestimate the time and commitment needed to square this particular circle....

...we might overestimate it's position on Elon's to do list though, I'm not sure it is shiny enough to attract his attention and some of his acolytes actually seem to wallow in their place as paying beta testers without a decent repairs and aftercare service as a sign of their outlawness which differentiates them from the evil empire of legacy ICE manufacturers.

[BobbyD]

It’s a shame no one is really offering a decent electric van, it’s odd because mine has loads of space underneath for batteries, so you would think it would be a simpler job compared to a car.

What would a van need to meet your requirements?

[redsturgeon]

It’s a shame no one is really offering a decent electric van, it’s odd because mine has loads of space underneath for batteries, so you would think it would be a simpler job compared to a car.

What would a van need to meet your requirements?

https://www.drivingelectric.com/nissan/e-nv200

John

[odysseus2000]

It’s a shame no one is really offering a decent electric van, it’s odd because mine has loads of space underneath for batteries, so you would think it would be a simpler job compared to a car.

What would a van need to meet your requirements?

https://www.drivingelectric.com/nissan/e-nv200

John

Always have this feeling that Renault have wrecked Nissan.

This van represents imho everything bad about accountants ruling engineers, creating something that is pleasingly low cost, but then soon becomes somethng that makes you want rid of it asap.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

It's a van...

I had a Caterham Seven for the weekend once, that's a car I could get excited about, it felt alive, it felt like something put together by a few people in a shed...which of course it was. I'd never want to own one for getting from A to B though.

I owned a Yamaha R1, chassis number 401, it could break the speed limit in first gear, it had another five gears to take you to 170mph in not much more than 10 secs, that was a vehicle you could fall in love with..on the track...around Brands it was magic, on the road it was a waste of time or a license killer.

I once journeyed to the British Grand Prix in a Porsche 911 RS 993 it was the worst journey ever, my friend offered me to drive it home...I couldn't actually fit in the driver seat to operate it.

For getting from A to B though with a load of stuff I need something boring and reliable, an electric van is like a fridge, if it does what it is supposed to without fuss then it has done its job.

John

[odysseus2000]

It's a van...

I had a Caterham Seven for the weekend once, that's a car I could get excited about, it felt alive, it felt like something put together by a few people in a shed...which of course it was. I'd never want to own one for getting from A to B though.

I owned a Yamaha R1, chassis number 401, it could break the speed limit in first gear, it had another five gears to take you to 170mph in not much more than 10 secs, that was a vehicle you could fall in love with..on the track...around Brands it was magic, on the road it was a waste of time or a license killer.

I once journeyed to the British Grand Prix in a Porsche 911 RS 993 it was the worst journey ever, my friend offered me to drive it home...I couldn't actually fit in the driver seat to operate it.

For getting from A to B though with a load of stuff I need something boring and reliable, an electric van is like a fridge, if it does what it is supposed to without fuss then it has done its job.

John

Once UK vans were things like Commer's & Bedfords, they were slow, thirsty, handled like a wounded cow, but the folk who made them said they were everything a van needed to be.

Then Ford launched the Transit which was fast (80 mph possible), handled like a car & had a a great load space & they grabbed such a big share of the market that Commer, Bedford etc faded away & now all vans are like the transit in performance etc. Sure they are still vans, but even van drivers have feelings & loathe to have to drive slow, long time to charge things even if they slowly get stuff done.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Taycan the stage

[odysseus2000]

Meanwhile the model 3 is seen as a break through car by UK magazine:

https://insideevs.com/reviews/357351/te ... h-car/amp/

Regards,

[Archtronics]

It’s a shame no one is really offering a decent electric van, it’s odd because mine has loads of space underneath for batteries, so you would think it would be a simpler job compared to a car.

What would a van need to meet your requirements?

Similar spec to my current van (2005 trafic) would be good enough.

Elevated driving position,
Fit 4ftx6ft sheet of ply in the back,
1 ton payload,
Full tank of fuel it will do 800-1000 miles so I’d want at least a 500 mile range minimum on a full charge.
Last thing I want when doing a 16 hour day is to be sat an extra few hours trying to charge the thing on the way home.

I actually had one of those nissans for a couple of week a few years ago when I was doing a job for Sefton council, I would describe it as just ok, fine for the council but no use as a business vehicle.