Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

Vinteresting VW article, pity the author wasn't paying attention though.

His Tesla production figures are wrong by a factor of 4, he is quoting per month what are per week.

He does not give a range for the vw motors, he does not give an acceleration figure

Poor piece of journalism.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Vinteresting VW article, pity the author wasn't paying attention though.

His Tesla production figures are wrong by a factor of 4, he is quoting per month what are per week.

He does not give a range for the vw motors, he does not give an acceleration figure

Poor piece of journalism.

Regards,

I agree about the journalism but if the facts re. VW are correct what is the impact?

John

[BobbyD]

Volkswagen group plans to build 10 million e-cars in first wave

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) plans to build 10 million electric cars based on its new modular MEB platform, the German car maker said on Monday, as it targets the launch of worldwide mass production towards the end of 2022.

VW will build 27 models for four group brands based on the MEB - or modular electrification kit - starting with the Volkswagen ID model that will begin rolling off the production line at its plant in Zwickau, Germany, late next year.

...

The company did not give a timeline for the forecast, but stood by its existing target of selling 3 million units per year by 2025 of the 50 battery-powered group models it plans.

- https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1LZ0S1

Speaking of the VW ID

Volkswagen will launch its forthcoming I.D. hatchback with a range of three battery capacities, it has emerged - and the firm is setting ambitious sales targets for the electric sub-brand of 100,000 cars per year in 2020 and 10 times that figure just five years later.

...

Auto Express understands that the most modest I.D. hatch will get a 48kWh battery and that it will be available for the price of a well-specced diesel Golf - or around £27,500 after the UK government’s plug-in vehicles grant is applied.

- https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswage ... tric-hatch

[odysseus2000]

Vinteresting VW article, pity the author wasn't paying attention though.

His Tesla production figures are wrong by a factor of 4, he is quoting per month what are per week.

He does not give a range for the vw motors, he does not give an acceleration figure

Poor piece of journalism.

Regards,

I agree about the journalism but if the facts re. VW are correct what is the impact?

John

Imho, very negative for VW as who will buy a petrol or diesel car when these are coming.

I expect VW to take a serious sales hit & meanwhile Tesla & various Chinese makers are already in the market & likely making a lot of model 3 & similar by the time of the vw launch, if Vw launch on time.

Vw have given the competitors too much lead time & imho will get hurt.

Meanwhile refiners, oil majors etc are all stone makers as the metal tool age begins.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

I expect VW to take a serious sales hit & meanwhile Tesla & various Chinese makers are already in the market & likely making a lot of model 3 & similar by the time of the vw launch, if Vw launch on time.

Vw have given the competitors too much lead time & imho will get hurt.

Well blow me down with a feather...

[Howard]

Vinteresting VW article, pity the author wasn't paying attention though.

His Tesla production figures are wrong by a factor of 4, he is quoting per month what are per week.

He does not give a range for the vw motors, he does not give an acceleration figure

Poor piece of journalism.

Regards,

I agree about the journalism but if the facts re. VW are correct what is the impact?

John

Imho, very negative for VW as who will buy a petrol or diesel car when these are coming.

I expect VW to take a serious sales hit & meanwhile Tesla & various Chinese makers are already in the market & likely making a lot of model 3 & similar by the time of the vw launch, if Vw launch on time.

Vw have given the competitors too much lead time & imho will get hurt.

Meanwhile refiners, oil majors etc are all stone makers as the metal tool age begins.

Regards,

Ody

You have to be an optimist to see Tesla wiping the floor with VW in China. According to Bloomberg, who have done some fairly convincing research using VIN number records, Tesla are producing about 3,300 model 3 cars a week at the moment. (In effect, that's their worldwide production). VW produced and sold over 3 million cars in China alone in 2017. That's about 8,500 sales a day to Chinese consumers! It looks like they will sell more than 3m cars in China in 2018.

You are making a bold claim that VW will take a serious sales hit from Tesla model 3 sales in the Chinese market in the forseeable future. I think Musk will want a few more dollars from shareholders to ramp up production to any level which will seriously damage VW in China. And it is difficult to see him working harmoniously with Chinese manufacturing partners to make Tesla's locally in serious numbers.

As someone who has leased a German-made plug in hybrid for a couple of years, I was impressed with the quality of the car (BMW330e). I was reading "Which" car owner reviews recently and Tesla does not score highly. Obviously this is on a very small sample of cars but it may be that Tesla models will be attractive to a certain strata of US consumers, but won't achieve approval in world markets. If they are going to be a serious car maker they will, figuratively, have to put their skates on.

Wish you luck with your shareholding. But I'm not selling my Shell shares yet!

regards

Howard

[Howard]

Sorry! I think I should have posted some links above:

Bloomberg forecasts of Tesla Model 3 production figures.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

VW sales in China.

www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/ana ... ring-china

The "Which" members comments on Tesla problems are in the members-only section, so I don't think a link will work.

regards

Howard

[DiamondEcho]

Tesla is ‘headed to the graveyard,’ warns iconic member of Detroit’s old guard [Published: Sept 19, 2018 2:36 p.m. ET]
‘Tesla has no … tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever.’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iconi ... ewer_click

[PeterGray]

Imho, very negative for VW as who will buy a petrol or diesel car when these are coming.

Regards,

A lot of people I'd expect. If I were in the market for anew car now I wouldn't buy electric. Quite possibly hybrid, but Id' consider petrol. Electric charging just isn't mature enough for me to consider yet. It's come, but not yet.

Peter

[odysseus2000]

Imho, very negative for VW as who will buy a petrol or diesel car when these are coming.

Regards,

A lot of people I'd expect. If I were in the market for anew car now I wouldn't buy electric. Quite possibly hybrid, but Id' consider petrol. Electric charging just isn't mature enough for me to consider yet. It's come, but not yet.

Peter

Yes, I suspect many will think like this and will turn to leasing a car to see what the market does. This is short term great for vw, but then if they can't re-sell the leased cars they are in a bit of pickle.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Howard
Ody

You have to be an optimist to see Tesla wiping the floor with VW in China. According to Bloomberg, who have done some fairly convincing research using VIN number records, Tesla are producing about 3,300 model 3 cars a week at the moment. (In effect, that's their worldwide production). VW produced and sold over 3 million cars in China alone in 2017. That's about 8,500 sales a day to Chinese consumers! It looks like they will sell more than 3m cars in China in 2018.

You are making a bold claim that VW will take a serious sales hit from Tesla model 3 sales in the Chinese market in the forseeable future. I think Musk will want a few more dollars from shareholders to ramp up production to any level which will seriously damage VW in China. And it is difficult to see him working harmoniously with Chinese manufacturing partners to make Tesla's locally in serious numbers.

As someone who has leased a German-made plug in hybrid for a couple of years, I was impressed with the quality of the car (BMW330e). I was reading "Which" car owner reviews recently and Tesla does not score highly. Obviously this is on a very small sample of cars but it may be that Tesla models will be attractive to a certain strata of US consumers, but won't achieve approval in world markets. If they are going to be a serious car maker they will, figuratively, have to put their skates on.

Wish you luck with your shareholding. But I'm not selling my Shell shares yet!

regards

Howard

China is an interesting market as one has much larger Chinese electric traction makers that anywhere else on the planet. What the Chinese consumer will buy is unclear as they will have for at least two years a choice between legacy VW and modern electric: import (Tesla) and domestic.

My general impression of consumers is that they don't want old stuff even if its cheaper and vw have now admitted, by making their electric aims public, that what they are currently selling is obsolete. They in general yearn for things they love and which are fun, the areas that Tesla emphasis.

Many disagree just as many said that Amazon could not compete against traditional book sellers and we know how that ended, many now argue that folk will stick with well established marques, also similar to how many thought Kodak would continue to prosper.

As you note the Which survey is too small to bother with and Which gave themselves no credibility gold stars by publishing such low statistic data.

Can't say I like any oil majors here, but I could be wrong, each investor has to make up their own mind.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

many now argue that folk will stick with well established marques, also similar to how many thought Kodak would continue to prosper.


Regards,

In fact the first digital camera was made by Kodak.

Now the likes of Nikon, Canon, Fuji, Pentax and other main legacy film camera makers are still major players in the digital camera market.

John

[DiamondEcho]

There is no 'eco-virtue' in China that I know of, money is a far grater priority for most.
There is also a huge amount of poverty, and the place is vast so how widespread could a network of recharging points be?
Plus I don't think Musk has selling power in Asia, rather he 'looks' like a junkie, who won't even get through Immigration in most countries out there. I don't see popular-status or customer appeal in any of that; there's nothing to buy into to, neither the product or man.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-09-19
Opinion: Tesla needs to put a seat belt on Elon Musk
Published: Sept 19, 2018 5:06 p.m. ET

[odysseus2000]

many now argue that folk will stick with well established marques, also similar to how many thought Kodak would continue to prosper.


Regards,

In fact the first digital camera was made by Kodak.

Now the likes of Nikon, Canon, Fuji, Pentax and other main legacy film camera makers are still major players in the digital camera market.

John

Yes, legacy camera makers are still important in the digital camera market, but the much larger market of the snap type picture & its storage has moved to smartphones & the various web service business for storage. Kodak who once were the major players in this market have been very badly beaten up.

If the move to electric traction is real the oil majors are going to lose a big part of their end market.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

There is no 'eco-virtue' in China that I know of, money is a far grater priority for most.
There is also a huge amount of poverty, and the place is vast so how widespread could a network of recharging points be?
Plus I don't think Musk has selling power in Asia, rather he 'looks' like a junkie, who won't even get through Immigration in most countries out there. I don't see popular-status or customer appeal in any of that; there's nothing to buy into to, neither the product or man.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-09-19
Opinion: Tesla needs to put a seat belt on Elon Musk
Published: Sept 19, 2018 5:06 p.m. ET

Tesla have got funding for their next plant in China, so folk with money believe there is a market for them.

Although China is vast the industrialisation has put the affluent consumers into the new cities which are relatively compact. Moreover, being a communist country the politicians can decide that China will go to predominantly electric traction to reduce air pollution & all citizens who can afford a car will be obliged to get an electric car. The beauty of China & India is that one has a strongly growing market for cars as general prosperity increases.

Some people dislike Musk, but many more love him & Tesla cars which is a situation not unlike the iPhone, nor unlike how many viewed Jobs.

Regards,

[Howard]

Some people dislike Musk, but many more love him & Tesla cars which is a situation not unlike the iPhone, nor unlike how many viewed Jobs.

Regards,

Ody

Do you have any evidence for that statement?

Would the statement - "multi millions of people dislike or are agnostic about Musk but a few like him and his cars" be more accurate?

At the moment, his vehicles are appealing to a tiny, affluent segment of the worldwide car market. There is little evidence that he is more than a niche supplier in the overall scale of things. Once he has produced 10 million cars and we have chance to analyse how a larger market segment view the reliability and value of his offerings we will know more. At its current level of growth, isn't Tesla, fast losing market share to the mass producers of electric cars in China and Japan?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Some people dislike Musk, but many more love him & Tesla cars which is a situation not unlike the iPhone, nor unlike how many viewed Jobs.

Regards,

Ody

Do you have any evidence for that statement?

Would the statement - "multi millions of people dislike or are agnostic about Musk but a few like him and his cars" be more accurate?

At the moment, his vehicles are appealing to a tiny, affluent segment of the worldwide car market. There is little evidence that he is more than a niche supplier in the overall scale of things. Once he has produced 10 million cars and we have chance to analyse how a larger market segment view the reliability and value of his offerings we will know more. At its current level of growth, isn't Tesla, fast losing market share to the mass producers of electric cars in China and Japan?

regards

Howard

Evidence for the appeal & love for a Musk comes in many forms:

Demand for his products: Cars & now passenger trips around the moon.
The valuation placed on Tesla
Pre ordering of his cars.
The support of investors to buy out Tesla
The support of investors to fund his US & now Chinese factories.

All of these things are cult status definers.

If significant numbers disliked or were agnostic about Musk he would not have the above.

The argument that Musk's cars appeal to a tiny affluent set of consumers is the defining aspect of his business model: Sell luxury then build on demand to supply lower net worth consumers. It is exactly like the model of Steve Jobs.

Tesla is currently accelerating its production so is increasing market share as cars are being sold whereas BMW are being out sold by Tesla in the US & soon there will be a Tesla factory in China.

If one waits to see how Tesla performs one will miss the potentially large growth phase of his shares, but one is exposed to potential failure. Each investor must decide.

Regards,

[Howard]

Ody

Is the comparison with Apple and Steve Jobs valid?

Apple started by selling a mass market product that was demonstrably reliable and relatively low cost. They built their reputation on delivering quality to a mass market. From early on, they were selling and manufacturing in large volumes and their products were high quality.

Yes, Tesla have sold a relatively small number of high value cars in the USA. But isn't it ridiculous to compare them with BMW or VW at this stage of their development. Those of us who might buy a high spec car demand very good after-sales service. The jury is still out on Tesla's service performance. It would be foolish to dismiss "Which" car owners' comments in the UK if they are putting Tesla at the bottom of the league for fixing faults, even if the sample is low. This low number of wealthy consumers need to be looked after or follow up sales may suffer.

Have you looked at the experience of Norwegian Tesla customers? They were an early success story for Tesla because of the massive government subsidies for electric cars and the infrastructure they demanded. It is true that Tesla sales have increased substantially there, but to very small absolute figures. They are now competing with Nissan, VW and other electric car suppliers and their absolute sales levels are small. There are worrying signs that the early, affluent, Norwegian Tesla adopters are increasingly complaining about after-sales service. Will this affect sales in the next year or two? Their service performance appears to be worse than German and Japanese competitors. And it will be interesting to see how their second-hand pricing holds up in a year or two.

See www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07 ... inst-tesla

There are a number of other articles about poor service performance in Norway.

regards

Howard

[BobbyD]

Tesla have got funding for their next plant in China, so folk with money believe there is a market for them.

Delorean managed to fund a factory... and the doomed to fail VW have been in China for around 30 years and have a fleet of new Chinese factories scheduled to open, so obviously neither funding a factory or being in China mean anything as predictors of future success...

Moreover, being a communist country the politicians can decide that China

China is a one party state, but it is less communist than Wall Street.

The beauty of China & India is that one has a strongly growing market for cars as general prosperity increases.

That's good news for VW who have been manufacturing in both for ages...

Some people dislike Musk, but many more love him & Tesla cars which is a situation not unlike the iPhone, nor unlike how many viewed Jobs.

Regards,

Except Apple actually managed to manufacture the iphone in mass market quantities, there was no big-MP3player to push them out of the market, it wasn't their first or only product and they had a corporate history going back decades... apart from that...

[odysseus2000]

Howard Apple started by selling a mass market product that was demonstrably reliable and relatively low cost. They built their reputation on delivering quality to a mass market. From early on, they were selling and manufacturing in large volumes and their products were high quality.

Did they?

My recollection is that Apple began in a garage with Steve Wozniak doing the engineering and then they went through many products always selling at premium prices. They were never "a pile it high sell it cheap" outfit like Amstrad, relying instead on being easy to use, to get a high price.

Doubt Norway matters it will be how they do in the US that counts.

Regards,