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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#167769

Postby odysseus2000 » September 20th, 2018, 7:35 pm

BobbyD China is a one party state, but it is less communist than Wall Street.


Ha Ha Do you understand what it is like to live in a communist state?

BobbyD
Except Apple actually managed to manufacture the iphone in mass market quantities, there was no big-MP3player to push them out of the market, it wasn't their first or only product and they had a corporate history going back decades... apart from that...


Apple created the download music market with iTunes on the iPod, not the iPhone.

The iPhone went up against industry titans like Nokia, Rim, Samsung etc and folk all said that the iPhone was never going to compete with the legacy makers, but what happened?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167778

Postby BobbyD » September 20th, 2018, 8:17 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD China is a one party state, but it is less communist than Wall Street.


Ha Ha Do you understand what it is like to live in a communist state?


Do you understand what communism is?

...or how to use the quote button?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167799

Postby odysseus2000 » September 20th, 2018, 10:00 pm

BobbyD
Do you understand what communism is?

...or how to use the quote button?


I travelled in Eastern Europe before the wall came down. I know lots of people who lived and currently live under communism.

Plus I know a number of Wall Street folk.

There is no practical way one can sensibly compare a Communist state to Wall Street. One can always do academic type of comparison but who cares about academic things?

Yes, I know how to use the quote button but often as easy to cut and paste.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167802

Postby BobbyD » September 20th, 2018, 10:17 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:There is no practical way one can sensibly compare a Communist state to Wall Street. One can always do academic type of comparison but who cares about academic things?


I wasn't, I was comparing China to Wall Street. That's rather the point.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167804

Postby odysseus2000 » September 20th, 2018, 10:41 pm

BobbyD I wasn't, I was comparing China to Wall Street. That's rather the point.
e

Imho the two are so different as to make any comparison meaningless.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167811

Postby DiamondEcho » September 20th, 2018, 11:31 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD, Do you understand what communism is?...

I travelled in Eastern Europe before the wall came down. I know lots of people who lived and currently live under communism. Plus I know a number of Wall Street folk. There is no practical way one can sensibly compare a Communist state to Wall Street. One can always do academic type of comparison but who cares about academic things?


I first visited the following 'hard communist' countries:
Vietnam in 1989
East Germany 1989
Cuba 1992
Laos 1994
Cambodia 2005
Plenty of others that might have been communist [Bolivia/85, Peru/'00?] I haven't time to check...

I've revisited a few of the above again since where I've witnessed the changes since via various levels of political democracy life has improved. For example Vietnam and East Germany both of which are unrecognisable vs their communist eras. So yes 'Ody' I agree with your point, the point you counter appears the view of a ideological romanticist who has perhaps never seen the misery of the citizens in communist states, ie vs not having witnessed first hand that 'communism' isn't voted for by the people, it is always imposed, and comes with utter misery and destitution, plus invariably the destruction of their economy.

ps. Oh, and I spent a year or two on Wall Street too, during my long career in a Wall Street bank. The original comparison you're replying to was so ridiculous I hadn't bothered commenting on it.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167815

Postby vrdiver » September 21st, 2018, 12:13 am

DiamondEcho wrote:The original comparison you're replying to was so ridiculous I hadn't bothered commenting on it.

Ditto.

Time in East and West Berlin before the wall came down, then after. Also worked for a Venezuelan oil company. Some time working for companies in Russia, Ukraine, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia and Poland.

Coming from a family that has pointed nuclear weapons both East and West, we have a fair few stories of life "on the other side". I wouldn't recommend communism to my worst enemy, at least, not if I didn't also hate his children.

Perhaps I've missed some subtlety of the comparison (not being in finance). The industries I have worked in have had their totalitarian characters, but even the management at the tractor factory I worked at (yes, I worked in one, but not in a communist state!) couldn't live up to a Tolstoy novel, despite the MD believing he was god and behaving accordingly...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167816

Postby DiamondEcho » September 21st, 2018, 12:19 am

Edit has timed out, but I can add back-packing/hitch-hiking for a few weeks around Nicaragua in circa 1997 too, that was certainly communist and a ravaged place back then. I'm just glad I got the 'hard destinations' out of my sytem earlier on, as NO way I'd go back to most of them today.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167817

Postby BobbyD » September 21st, 2018, 12:38 am

DiamondEcho wrote: So yes 'Ody' I agree with your point, the point you counter appears the view of a ideological romanticist who has perhaps never seen the misery of the citizens in communist states, ie vs not having witnessed first hand that 'communism' isn't voted for by the people, it is always imposed, and comes with utter misery and destitution, plus invariably the destruction of their economy.


The point he was countering is that China isn't a Communist state, which it isn't... It was... but it ain't no more.

Wall Street not communist. China less communist than Wall Street. Therefor China not Communist. Is it really that hard to grasp?

There is no meaningful comparison, it's just a figure of speech.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167820

Postby Howard » September 21st, 2018, 1:09 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Doubt Norway matters it will be how they do in the US that counts.


So are you now saying that Tesla can currently ignore international customers? Are you really suggesting that their failure to provide decent back up service in the UK and Norway is an indication that they are on the way to becoming a world-beating company which will take China by storm?

The "What Car" 2018 reliability survey results don't augur well for Tesla's international reputation. Whilst the Nissan Leaf scores 99.7%, the Tesla S achieves just over 50%. UK customers seem to have many issues with the car.

And sadly, as for their operations in the UK and Norway there are signs that they are running into quality issues in China too. China's quality regulator has made Tesla recall nearly 9,000 Model S cars to replace a bolt in the steering system. This is a similar fault to that which has resulted in their recall of 123,000 cars in the USA. Whilst every car maker has recalls, few seem to have the high proportion which Tesla are achieving.

It will be interesting to see how fault - free their cheaper model 3 turns out to be.

sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... -s-embrace

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/car ... 471562002/

https://www.whatcar.com/news/2018-what- ... vey/n17824

Hopefully Musk and his team will be able to overcome the quality problems - but this doesn't look like an Apple style success story at the moment.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167840

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2018, 7:07 am

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Doubt Norway matters it will be how they do in the US that counts.


So are you now saying that Tesla can currently ignore international customers? Are you really suggesting that their failure to provide decent back up service in the UK and Norway is an indication that they are on the way to becoming a world-beating company which will take China by storm?

The "What Car" 2018 reliability survey results don't augur well for Tesla's international reputation. Whilst the Nissan Leaf scores 99.7%, the Tesla S achieves just over 50%. UK customers seem to have many issues with the car.

And sadly, as for their operations in the UK and Norway there are signs that they are running into quality issues in China too. China's quality regulator has made Tesla recall nearly 9,000 Model S cars to replace a bolt in the steering system. This is a similar fault to that which has resulted in their recall of 123,000 cars in the USA. Whilst every car maker has recalls, few seem to have the high proportion which Tesla are achieving.

It will be interesting to see how fault - free their cheaper model 3 turns out to be.

sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... -s-embrace

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/car ... 471562002/

https://www.whatcar.com/news/2018-what- ... vey/n17824

Hopefully Musk and his team will be able to overcome the quality problems - but this doesn't look like an Apple style success story at the moment.

regards

Howard


A lot of these articles are click bait, trying to find ways to get views.

Here is an article about Apple's antenna-gate:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/ ... d68cad604d

Read this & you wonder how Apple ever sold another phone. The Tesla articles are very similar & those in the UK are based on such small numbers of owners as to be meaningless.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#167895

Postby odysseus2000 » September 21st, 2018, 11:17 am

BobbyD wrote:
DiamondEcho wrote: So yes 'Ody' I agree with your point, the point you counter appears the view of a ideological romanticist who has perhaps never seen the misery of the citizens in communist states, ie vs not having witnessed first hand that 'communism' isn't voted for by the people, it is always imposed, and comes with utter misery and destitution, plus invariably the destruction of their economy.


The point he was countering is that China isn't a Communist state, which it isn't... It was... but it ain't no more.

Wall Street not communist. China less communist than Wall Street. Therefor China not Communist. Is it really that hard to grasp?

There is no meaningful comparison, it's just a figure of speech.


If this is what you believe you have not studied China.

It is a strongly communist State, a single party ruling everything, there is no democracy & any citizen falling out of line is reported by the communist officials paid to watch for trouble & then subject to whatever punishment the party determines is appropriate.

No one dare criticise the government without fear of their liberty or worse.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168294

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2018, 9:00 am

One of the long running discussions surrounding self driving car sales is whether Lidar, as used by folk like Google, is better than a visual system as use does by Tesla, but what is Lidar, how does it work & what are its limitations? Thus is an interesting video that covers a simple scanning Lidar system now available for around $100 & shows its strengths & weakness & makes coments re full 3d systems etc, well worth a watch imho:

https://youtu.be/AERfie9wlWM

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onthemove
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Re: Musk endeavours

#168332

Postby onthemove » September 23rd, 2018, 11:09 am

odysseus2000 wrote:One of the long running discussions surrounding self driving car sales is whether Lidar, as used by folk like Google, is better than a visual system as use does by Tesla, but what is Lidar, how does it work & what are its limitations? Thus is an interesting video that covers a simple scanning Lidar system now available for around $100 & shows its strengths & weakness & makes coments re full 3d systems etc, well worth a watch imho:

https://youtu.be/AERfie9wlWM

Regards,


Just watched it.

What a load of twaddle.

All it is, is a video examining one, cheap lidar sensor, and considering whether it would be suitable as the only single device by which you could drive a toy car.

It has nothing to do with "as used by folk like Google".

It has nothing to do with whether it's 'better than a visual' - that's a gross misrepresentation of the reality when it comes to self driving cars.

And the points the narrator makes do not stand up to scrutiny either.

If he kept the discussion to hobbyist toying around - which is in essence what he's doing - then it would be fine. A little project with your kids to get them interested in the technology, fine. But to suggest - as even the description on the video itself does - that this is somehow transferrable to real self driving cars, nah ... that's let's say 'naïve'.

To address these, and other problems with the video...

Point 1
No real-world-for-humans-and-amongst-humans proper autonomous car is even being considered to be operated by lidar alone. To claim (or at least imply) Lidar is not suitable or appropriate at all for self driving cars simply because it cannot do everything in one single device, is completely preposterous. No (serious) manufacturer is trying to make an autonomous vehicle using lidar alone.

All technologies have limitions, that's why most companies use a combination of technologies in their self driving vehicles.

Much as I'm an admirer of the state of the art in visual recognition (see earlier posts I've made on this board) - it has certainly undergone a revolution recently and self driving cars certainly are not viable without it - but to rely solely on vision would be as mad as relying solely on lidar (and yes I am aware that one company is trying to rely solely on vision - I hope that doesn't succeed in becoming the standard - computer vision is now immensly powerful using deep learning convolutional neural nets, but it isn't completely foolproof - any more than the lidar sensor is completely foolproof.).

But to imply that you might consider using lidar alone for a real world self driving car is ridiculous. How is lidar going to see what state traffic lights are? How is lidar going to recognise a policeman directing traffic? How is lidar going to see speed signs, road work signs, diversion signs, road closed signs?

How is lidar going to identify an object so that it can predict how it might move? How would it recognise a car, bike, lamppost, garbage, leaves, cats, dogs, children, prams, etc.

It is quite simply preposterous to assume that someone might consider lidar without an associated vision system.

What lidar does give you is a more concrete feedback on distances - which can then be combined into the visual data to double check the spatial model being created. We all know how easy it is to camouflage things visually. Lidar gives a second source of information about objects that isn't prone to issues of visual camouflage.

Lidar compliments visual recognition. It cannot replace it.

Point 2
He claims you don't need to see behing when driving forwards. Utter twaddle. Any serious self driving system will need to pay attention to the traffic behind. How do you know when it's safe to make a lane change? How do you know there isn't a cyclist overtaking / undertaking?

I've seen seen already on a number of real world cars when I'm cycling, that they now have warning sensors that flash a light in the left wing mirror to warn the driver when a cyclist is approaching from behind / passing on the left. Watching what's coming up behind is critical to being able to drive safely.

Point 3
He claimed - even using stealth bombers to show how impressive his argument is - that it can only see walls it's looking straight at, rather than at an angle. But if you look at his demo you could see that it was actually perfectly able to see the wall into the distance.

If you look closely at the video at 5:51 https://youtu.be/AERfie9wlWM?t=351 where he claims to be showing it not seeing the wall, the picture on screen tells a different message. If you pause it, and look closely, you can see dots practically all the way to the top of the screen.

What you are seeing is not that it isn't seeing the wall, what you are seeing is that as the wall goes further away each angle the lidar rotates through is covering a much greater length of wall, so the dots stretch out when drawn on the display.

That is what you are seeing - less dots per distance of wall, due to more distance of wall per angle of lidar - you are not seeing it fail to see the wall.

Point 4
And he does admit this near the end - there are lidars that aren't so limited to the 2d plane. There are lidars that do cover multiple heights. Which kind of undermines much of his criticism of that lidar when looking at lidar in general for self driving cars.

So in essence, the whole video is pointless - twaddle.

He's taken one of the most budget lidars around, shown that it isn't great (wow, the cheapest lidar doesn't do everything ... and in other news)...

And then further tries to show "the ugly truth" about lidar on the (false) basis that someone might actually not only consider using only lidar for a self driving car, but even more foolishly would even consider only using a single one of these cheapest lidar as the sole sensor in a self driving car.

As one of the comments illustrates...

"Very interesting. It covers perfectly the problems I'm dealing with. Do you think it is worth it's money ? "

Those videos are aimed at hobbyists.

The technical challenges they are finding are in a completely different (amateur) league to those that the serious real world car companies are dealing with.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168357

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2018, 12:55 pm

Hi onthemove,

Thank you got your most interesting replying raising many very valuable points.

I had in mind that the video introduce folk unfamiliar with Lidar to some aspects of its technical capabilities such that in any discussion where Lidar is brought up the investor would have some idea about what the discussion is about, the potential & limitations etc.

Often I personally learn a lot from thinking about the most simple situation possible rather than from a very complex one.

The approach of vision plus Lidar compared to the vision plus radar is an interesting one & I hope that the video plus your reply is of assistance to investors interested in the technology.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168482

Postby BobbyD » September 23rd, 2018, 10:40 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
If this is what you believe you have not studied China.

It is a strongly communist State, a single party ruling everything, there is no democracy & any citizen falling out of line is reported by the communist officials paid to watch for trouble & then subject to whatever punishment the party determines is appropriate.


As I said it is a one party state. It is not communist. The one is not a synonym of the other.

odysseus2000 wrote:One of the long running discussions surrounding self driving car sales is whether Lidar, as used by folk like Google, is better than a visual system as use does by Tesla


Not so much a discussion as Musk disagreeing with every other car and autonomous system manufacturer, despite the fact that unless there has been a recent fatality I've missed all fatalities involving autonomous cars have so far involved cars with no LIDAR (Tesla) or cars with only one (UBER).

LIDAR has already been covered in some detail in this thread.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168505

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2018, 6:58 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
If this is what you believe you have not studied China.

It is a strongly communist State, a single party ruling everything, there is no democracy & any citizen falling out of line is reported by the communist officials paid to watch for trouble & then subject to whatever punishment the party determines is appropriate.


As I said it is a one party state. It is not communist. The one is not a synonym of the other.

odysseus2000 wrote:One of the long running discussions surrounding self driving car sales is whether Lidar, as used by folk like Google, is better than a visual system as use does by Tesla


Not so much a discussion as Musk disagreeing with every other car and autonomous system manufacturer, despite the fact that unless there has been a recent fatality I've missed all fatalities involving autonomous cars have so far involved cars with no LIDAR (Tesla) or cars with only one (UBER).

LIDAR has already been covered in some detail in this thread.


Wikipedia lists China as a current communist state:


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_state

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168572

Postby BobbyD » September 24th, 2018, 12:13 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Wikipedia lists China as a current communist state:


Well it must be true if an online webpage which can be edited by literally anybody on the planet with unrestricted access to the internet says so...

But if that's your rabbit hole of choice follow it all the way...

A Communist state (sometimes referred to as workers' state) is a state that is administered and governed by a single party, guided by Marxist–Leninist philosophy, with the aim of achieving communism.


- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_state

In political and social sciences, communism (from Latin communis, "common, universal")[1][2] is the philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology and movement whose ultimate goal is the establishment of the communist society, which is a socioeconomic order structured upon the common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money[3][4] and the state.[5][6]


- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communism

The Chinese government is no longer

structured upon the common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money[3][4] and the state.[5][6]

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168586

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2018, 1:11 pm

Features that made the Model T so successful:

https://youtu.be/Zu07cS5BmRI

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Re: Musk endeavours

#168589

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2018, 1:15 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Wikipedia lists China as a current communist state:


Well it must be true if an online webpage which can be edited by literally anybody on the planet with unrestricted access to the internet says so...

But if that's your rabbit hole of choice follow it all the way...

A Communist state (sometimes referred to as workers' state) is a state that is administered and governed by a single party, guided by Marxist–Leninist philosophy, with the aim of achieving communism.


- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_state

In political and social sciences, communism (from Latin communis, "common, universal")[1][2] is the philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology and movement whose ultimate goal is the establishment of the communist society, which is a socioeconomic order structured upon the common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money[3][4] and the state.[5][6]


- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communism

The Chinese government is no longer

structured upon the common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money[3][4] and the state.[5][6]


China is now so open & free that all kind of discussion is allowed, apart from anything the Chinese government can't monitor & so Google does operate in China & various other aspects of a free society are also suppressed. Sure it may be advanced communism, but it is still communism.

Regards


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