Yes, you are right the article does makes interesting reading and the production volumes of the Model 3 are becoming impressive. However I am not sure comparing this model’s sales with such a specialist manufacturer as Porsche is terribly helpful. As you have often said Tesla’s strategy is to be a much more mainstream brand.
So more impressive are its sales gains in the USA against Mercedes, BMW and other upmarket major car brands.
However, I would return to the question about Tesla’s reliability. The evidence isn’t yet clear. As you have said previously, in theory an all-electric car should be much more reliable than an ICE car. As Tesla penetrates the upmarket family car sector their reliability will be tested much more severely. Once they are supplying cars to hundreds of thousands of drivers who use their cars every day for business and family motoring their customers will be expecting a car which is as reliable or better than the competition.
I know one can’t generalise from a small sample, but I have been lucky enough to drive the type of cars which Tesla have to beat, including 3 years with a Porsche 911. I genuinely can’t recall having to take a car to a garage other than for a routine service or new tyres in the last 20 years. So that’s been once a year. My wife’s recent 3 series BMW went two years before needing a service. Will Tesla cars prove to be better than this, ie absolutely no problems over 20 years of owning different models? As you know, the surveys of the small numbers of Tesla owners in Norway and the UK are not promising at the moment. Tesla can argue that they involve small numbers of cars but coming bottom of the reliability league in owner surveys doesn’t encourage someone like me to lease or buy one of their cars.
Before committing to a BMW (delivered this week), I did look at the personal three year leasing cost of a Tesla and it was ridiculous: between £1,000 - £2,000 a month, excluding maintenance. This suggests that resale values after 3 years are not good relative to initial cost and cost of ownership is high. By comparison, a similar sized 7 Series BMW or an S class Mercedes can be leased from £600 a month upwards. And the German manufacturers are making profits selling quality cars at these prices.
I chose a more modest petrol-powered 5 Series and having driven it for 200 miles (less than a third of its range on a full tank) and finding it seriously quiet, smooth and comfortable with all the technology I need, I happened to park near a Tesla in Terminal 5 at Heathrow on Saturday and, frankly it looked a bit dowdy and oversized. Like other American cars, it just didn’t seem to have that wow factor.
Ok, I would like to drive a non-polluting electric car, but Tesla haven’t persuaded me yet. If they can carry on growing and delighting customers with the Model 3 and get leasing costs down to sensible figures they may be successful in markets other than the USA, but they have a long way to go. I wish the brand and the employees well, not sure about Musk as a brand ambassador though. Let’s hope they can persuade other manufacturers to produce really good electric cars too so that the charging process is improved and maybe we’ll all be driving electric in a few years!
regards
Howard